Some serious Fedal value can be had on next year's slams

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by batz, Sep 23, 2012.

  1. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Some of these prices are just bonkers IMO.

    www.oddschecker.com


    Mens Australian Open Outrights
    Winner
    Novak Djokovic 7/4
    Andy Murray 3
    Rafael Nadal 5
    Roger Federer 11/2

    Mens French Open Outrights
    Winner
    Rafael Nadal 20/19
    Novak Djokovic 9/4
    Roger Federer 14
    Andy Murray 20

    Mens Wimbledon Outrights
    Winner
    Andy Murray 3
    Novak Djokovic 3
    Rafael Nadal 4
    Roger Federer 5

    Mens US Open 2013 Outrights
    Winner
    Novak Djokovic 11/5
    Andy Murray 5/2
    Rafael Nadal 5
    Roger Federer 5
     
    #1
  2. akv89

    akv89 Hall of Fame

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    Wow, Federer really being undervalued in those bets. If I were a betting man, I would put money on him for all four majors given those odds.
    If I put 10 bucks on him at each major, it would cost me $40. But I would make $55 if he wins the Aussie, $140 if he wins the French, $50 if he wins Wimbledon, and $50 if he wins USO. He would only need to win one, any one, to make a profit.
     
    #2
  3. 6-1 6-3 6-0

    6-1 6-3 6-0 Banned

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    And he'd only need to win no slams at all (the most likely option) for you to lose $40.
     
    #3
  4. augustobt

    augustobt Hall of Fame

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    Those odds for Mr. Federer winning one major in '13 is pathetic.

    But I remember that after his lost in the French and after the tank job against Haas his odds for wimbledon were as pathetic as those, even more. About 6.7 in one site that I know.
     
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  5. akv89

    akv89 Hall of Fame

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    Opinions like yours contribute to such undervaluing off of which others make a profit. You have contributed in making some Federer fans slightly richer and they owe you a debt of gratitude.
     
    #5
  6. tennisMVP

    tennisMVP Banned

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    I literally laughed out loud when I saw Murray was listed higher than Nadal in 3 of the 4 slams :lol:
     
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  7. Tony48

    Tony48 Legend

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    Federer should at least be 2nd at Wimbledon. That's crazy. I'm not really a betting man (other than the occasional lottery entry) but I'd be willing to put money on Fed winning Wimbledon
     
    #7
  8. tennisMVP

    tennisMVP Banned

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    Yeah, I guess people took note of the Benneteau match. And in the final Murray was close to a 2 sets to love lead. Djokovic match was fine form.
     
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  9. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

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    Bookies are stupid with the Murray ratio.
     
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  10. 6-1 6-3 6-0

    6-1 6-3 6-0 Banned

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    Doubt it. I'm sure there are many Federer fans happy to empty their wallets independent of Talk Tennis. Looks like the betting companies will be making a lot of money in 2013 (and will make a bit of a loss too, with Nadal's odds at Roland Garros placed at 20/19, when Nadal winning Roland Garros 2013 is a certainty).
     
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  11. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

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    LOL!! Ridiculous list! The maker of the odds is probably hoping for a federer win so that he can win major bucks!!
     
    #11
  12. 6-1 6-3 6-0

    6-1 6-3 6-0 Banned

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    Or the maker of those odds probably isn't a Federer fan, so he can view the tennis odds objectively without thinking (wrongly) that Federer will win anything at all.
     
    #12
  13. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

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    could be but im pretty sure he would still hope for a fed win since most people are betting on Nole and Murray
     
    #13
  14. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    I'd give Federer better odds at RG. If Nadal goes out, Federer will probably take it. But yes, Nadal going out is a dubious proposition, at best.
     
    #14
  15. 6-1 6-3 6-0

    6-1 6-3 6-0 Banned

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    If Federer had better odds, he should still be below Djokovic (I thought Djokovic's annihilation of Federer in the SF in straight sets was a great display of clay-court tennis from Djokovic), since Djokovic is the superior clay-courter at the moment between them. But I agree, Nadal winning Roland Garros 2013 is a certainty, so it makes no sense to discuss any possibility other than Nadal winning Roland Garros 2013, since he has a 52-1 record there and in 2012 only had his serve broken one time (1R against Bolelli) before the final.
     
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  16. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

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    Nadal will win most likely if he's back to normal and he competes
     
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  17. 6-1 6-3 6-0

    6-1 6-3 6-0 Banned

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    Even if Nadal isn't normal, I still think Nadal can win Roland Garros 2013 without playing his best tennis, since no one comes close to matching his magnificence there.
     
    #17
  18. Tony48

    Tony48 Legend

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    You're right, basically. But I would not put it past Djokovic to be able to beat a below-par Nadal at RG.
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2012
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  19. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

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    I guess but I mean if he wasnt as good as he was this year Djokovic wouldve beaten him but Nadal's serves were so good this year thats what made it hard so if he's not a 100% he could lose
     
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  20. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Why do they give Fed virtually no shot at winning anything next year? His odds should be a lot higher than that.
     
    #20
  21. forzamilan90

    forzamilan90 Legend

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    kinda random but what's a good betting site for tennis for USA people (I live in Georgia)?
     
    #21
  22. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

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    Betting135 is pretty good
     
    #22
  23. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

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    hence why its ridiculous
     
    #23
  24. forzamilan90

    forzamilan90 Legend

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    um absolutely nothing shows up on google when i type that in
     
    #24
  25. Mainad

    Mainad G.O.A.T.

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    I'll be reserving my laughter until after I see what kind of shape 2013 Nadal will be in! :cool:
     
    #25
  26. merlinpinpin

    merlinpinpin Hall of Fame

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    Yeah, even factoring in his age, that's crazy. Except at RG, where he barely edges Murray, he's got worse odds than him everywhere else. Hello? :shock:
     
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  27. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    It is ridiculous. I think he should be way ahead of Nadal,and at least tied for second behind Andy. Putting him last is just nonsense.
     
    #27
  28. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

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    Betting 365 my bad sorry
     
    #28
  29. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

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    IKR! it was probably made by NSK
     
    #29
  30. 6-1 6-3 6-0

    6-1 6-3 6-0 Banned

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    Bet365, you mean.
     
    #30
  31. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

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    yeap!!! thats it
     
    #31
  32. Moz

    Moz Hall of Fame

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    Bookies set the odds to balance their books, so these odds reflect the proportions of money they expect to take rather than strictly the players chances of winning.

    If Murray often seems artificially short it's because they expect to take more money for him, which isn't surprising considering the betting habits of his home nation.

    I expect these are all-in so you don't get your stake refunded if the player doesn't turn up.
     
    #32
  33. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    The only slightly shocking odd is the Wimbledon one (for Fed). Of course it is hard to predict form so long in advance but the rest seems logic to me especially AO and RG. Since 2008, Fed has been beaten twice by Nadal and has failed to win a single set off Djoko in 2 encounters at AO. If you factor in the age + the type of surface (slower and higher bouncing than W), I think his odds are about right. RG is even more doubtful. As for USO, Fed hasn't won one since 2008, not even vs Delpo, the least threatening of the rivals he got there. And you would have his odds super high? I actually find his USO odds generous (probably due to surface and how well he still does in preparatory event Cincy). ETA: and regardless of how much credibility you're willing to give those results, it seems rather normal that Murray finally beating Fed in a best of 5 match AND winning his 1st slam raise his odds a bit for the next slams.
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2012
    #33
  34. Hood_Man

    Hood_Man Legend

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    I don't know if I really disagree with Fed's odds for a lot of these. Even I can admit that Federer, while playing really well and displaying his new Godzilla sized testicles, had some good fortune along the way in this year's Wimbledon.

    He's still consistently reaching semi finals, but when he's coming up against the Nadal's or Djokovic's (or these days, the Berdych's too) in these matches it might as well be the first week.
     
    #34
  35. firepanda

    firepanda Professional

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    20/19 is idiotic. It is debatable if Nadal is even still a favourite, injured as he is.
     
    #35
  36. フェデラー

    フェデラー Hall of Fame

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    The one I really don't understand is the Wimbledon one. I mean you can call it good fortune, but it still took a lot to beat Djokovic in the semi and Murray in the final. Not sure how this years winner all of a sudden has less of a chance that Nadal who went out in the second round...
     
    #36
  37. forzamilan90

    forzamilan90 Legend

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    Been reading up and don't think they do business with USA. Sucks that online gambling (betting) is such an issue for the USA. I just want to bet some money on footie and tennis, sigh.
     
    #37
  38. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    Federer's odds for winning the Australian or French are about right. Djokovic, Nadal (if in half decent shape), and Murray are all more likely to win the Australian than him at this point. The French nobody other than Nadal and Djokovic is going to win that anytime the next few years, his real odds to win there next year would be no better than the 7% he is given. Wimbedon and the U.S Open odds could be better than that though.

    What is most noteable overall is how poor the odds given for Federer and Nadal both are, and how strong the odds for Murray have suddenly become. The odds would be difficult to make at this point in general as nobody knows how Nadal will return. However I would probably have Federer and Nadal as having better odds to win Wimbledon than either Djokovic or Murray. Federer won Wimbledon this year and is a 7 time winner, and Nadal has had a better overall record there than anyone since 2008 with 2 titles and 3 finals out of 4 times played. Murray has not yet beaten either of them at Wimbledon so would have him 3rd. Would have Djokovic 4th at best for Wimbledon.

    Djokovic's odds are about as expected overall, although I dont agree with him being the favorite for Wimbledon at all.
     
    #38
  39. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    LOL those are actually great odds for Nadal at the French Open. Reality is unless he retires he is much more than 50% likely to win any French Open he plays, even now. Other than Djokovic who else could win RG next year. Federer or Murray? Dont me laugh.
     
    #39
  40. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Actually, Federer's odds should be much better than Murray's at the French. He's reached tons of finals there after all, won it once and even beat Djoko there last year. He's also won a neat bunch of clay titles in his career. A far cry from Murray who I believe would find a way to lose RG to about any decent clay court player , let alone a top guy. The only thing that lowers Fed's odds at the French (understandably so) is his age but overall his clay game is vastly superior to Murray's. Murray even loses to Raonic on clay, that says it all really!
     
    #40
  41. Agassifan

    Agassifan Hall of Fame

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    It will be embarrassing for the ATP if a 32 year old man wins a slam when 3 great players are at their peaks. It is already borderline embarrassing that a 31 year old is #1 and has won 90% of his matches over the 12 months.
     
    #41
  42. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

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    Obviously this is a weak era and not like the strong era when a 21 year-25 year old was the niumber one(2003-07).
     
    #42
  43. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Nadal isn't even in his prime much less at his peak.
     
    #43
  44. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    Just wondering, when would you say Nadal's prime started, and when did it end?
     
    #44
  45. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    I think his prime started around 2006 and ended in 2010. He's been past his peak since 2008,and past his prime for nearly 3 years,imo.
     
    #45
  46. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Nadal's prime started almost immediately. One of his 2 best seasons on the tour happened when he was 18/19. Nadal was extremely precocious. He's also phenomenally talented. Too bad that physical problems and injuries have been in the way on and off the whole time as well. Nadal doesn't have clear peak years like Fed, he's just had more physical breakdowns throughout his career. ETA: his prime started in 2005 with a bang. 2006 was actually one of Rafa's worst seasons due to injury troubles at the end of 2005 but that's typical of Rafa's career: roller coaster style depending on his physical condition.
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2012
    #46
  47. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    Are you basing this off of his play or his success?
     
    #47
  48. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    I'm not so sure about that. Nadal is a clay courter,but in 2006 was the first time he made the final of a slam not on clay. I feel like he entered his prime in that same year for that reason alone.



    He has talent,but phenomenally talented? I don't think so.



    I think he had one peak year and that was in 2008 where he never played better,won his first Wimby,won Olympic gold,won Toronto,blitzed through the clay season(except Rome),had a huge match winning streak,and made the semi at the USO. It's clear that 2008 was Nadal's peak year.
     
    #48
  49. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    We strongly disagree on that last point I guess. Never mind. Without all the injuries, Nadal's career would have been more impressive than Fed's imo but of course we'll never know. Yep, he did well at Wimbledon in 2006 and of course as usual on clay but I believe it was his worst season on hard court (he won a master or slam on hard in 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 but not in 2006). Also in 2005, he was less of a clay courter than almost any other year (most titles won on hard including 2 hard court masters and his only indoor title. That was great for him even if it didn't include a slam).
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2012
    #49
  50. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    For what it's worth, I think Nadal entered his prime in 2007.
     
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