Stats on rtns

Discussion in 'Tennis Tips/Instruction' started by 5263, Jan 7, 2013.

  1. 5263

    5263 G.O.A.T.

    Mar 31, 2008
    It has been suggested that the ATP stats support the idea that rtn of the
    second serve is the most important shot for the Big 4 on the ATP.
    This may be correct and is an interesting question given the importance of
    winning pts when returning 2ond serve and how key that is to breaking serve.

    As a small test, I did a quick charting of the 2012 FO Highlights with the 2 best
    returners in the game. I looked at pts where the rtn guy won the point and
    made a couple of assumptions that you may or may not except. imo they are
    1st assumption is that if rtn player hit more than 4 shots after the rtn in a
    basically even rally...then the rtn was not key other than getting the pt started.
    2ond was if the rtn player hit a very weak sitter and won the pt, the rtn was
    not important other than getting the point started.
    3rd was that if the point was less than 4 hits by the rtn player and he won,
    I would assume the rtn helped him close it out,...even though it may not have.
    I also expect since this highlights, it would be skewed towards showing awesome rtns as a highlight. So, 2 great returners, on clay, highlights,
    and credit if they could close it in 4 shots.

    I did the count quickly and only saw 17 rtn pts won by these 2 great returners.
    A small sample size and I intend to look at more vid on this.
    But the results on clay, by 2 great returners of the big 4 is worth looking at
    imo and they were overwhelming so far in what I saw.

    9 pts- 5 by Dj and 4 by Rafa went well over 4 shots by each player
    6 pts- 3 by each were won after soft or easy rtns to the middle T area.
    2 pts- both by Dj were won on less than 4 shots (one was 2 and one was 3)

    Imo this indicates from this highlight vid, that only 2 of 17 returns were of any
    quality to be of worth other than avoiding a total miss and not getting ball in
    play. Maybe more to come if there is any interest.

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