Tennis is about Match Ups As Opposed To Ratings

Discussion in 'Adult League & Tournament Talk' started by Aurellian, Jun 10, 2013.

  1. dcdoorknob

    dcdoorknob Hall of Fame

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    I'm still not sure what the point of the argument is.

    Two people can be on the same level, and one of them be, in general "technically better" in their stroke mechanics, but the other one can have other strengths, such as speed, footwork, shot selection, etc, which allow their overall game effectiveness to be similar to the first player. Either player can win because their overall effectiveness on the tennis court is similar.

    Is this the whole argument? Seems like it to me. If so, well, yeah, no sh** sherlock.
     
  2. gameboy

    gameboy Hall of Fame

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    I don't know why, but I guess I just want to tell myself that this entire thread wasn't just a colossal waste of time, so here it goes...

    This is precisely why USTA got rid of the judgmental ratings handed out by club pros. Just because some person has beautiful strokes, it does not mean that those beautiful strokes won't break down at the first hint of pressure. And someone with strokes that hurt to even look at still can have great success relying on consistency and movement.

    All it matter is whether or not (and how often) you win or lose the point. Exactly how you do it and how good you look while doing it is no concern of USTA.

    If someone has a "4.5 serve" and "2.5 groundies" does not automatically mean that person is a 3.0. It only matters what you do with it and who you play competitive against. If those strokes keep you in games against 4.0's, then you are a 4.0. If 3.5 with better strokes can beat you down, you may only be a 3.0.

    Style matchups don't matter. Only the results matter.
     
  3. g4driver

    g4driver Hall of Fame

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    Lucky me - I have both at my house ;)
     
  4. J_R_B

    J_R_B Hall of Fame

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    Yes, of course this can happen, but since ratings are results-driven, the player with better strokes is NOT higher rated since he can't beat players who are supposed lower rated, which is what you said when you started this stupid-fest. So, basically what you did is get caught making a ridiculously stupid statement, so you changed it to something everyone would consider reasonable, and then claimed that's what you were saying all along. Good job, but it certainly doesn't take away from the stupid of your original argument, which you defended vigorously for a long time in this thread.
     
  5. Aurellian

    Aurellian Semi-Pro

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    I disagree. Your read what you wanted to read and made the point you wanted to make....it's very common on message boards and in life.

    Thank you for your comments though. God bless you and your family.
     
  6. Aurellian

    Aurellian Semi-Pro

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    You still have failed to grasp--or address-- the argument which I posited and instructed you to respond to.

    I agree that results based ratings may be better than skills based ratings (conducted under ideal circumstances.) I do believe that you are discarding the standardized nature of the skills based ratings, but yea, in the end, if you can win you can win. Who's gonna argue with that?

    But if you are saying that certain styles don't match up poorly against other styles I must politely disagree.

    Have a blessed day.
     
  7. Cindysphinx

    Cindysphinx G.O.A.T.

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    What a mosh pit.

    Well, I guess I would say this about what I will call "Weaker Player With A Weapon Against Technically Superior Player" (WPWAWATSP) TM.

    This really isn't that rare. Say you had a 3.0 player who had a Big Serve against a 4.5 player.

    Sure, the Big Server would win points with his serve. But the problem is that the 4.5 player should be able to handle the serve *and* the 4.5 player should be able to do things to prevent the 3.0 player from taking advantage of the Big Serve.

    An example. If pro players stand back by the fence to return Isner's serve or just float it back, he might counter this with S&V. The 3.0 player could never do that because 3.0 players typically do not S&V well. The 4.5 should have various tools in the bag that the 3.0 is not used to seeing and should therefore win.

    Now, if you want to talk probability, we can make it easy. Imagine that a 3.0C singles specialist plays a 4.0 C singles specialist in singles. Show of hands: Who would bet money on the 3.0?

    Didn't think so.
     
  8. gameboy

    gameboy Hall of Fame

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    Cocaine is helluva drug...
     
  9. Cindysphinx

    Cindysphinx G.O.A.T.

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    Well, yeah. Of course.

    Woz's defensive style does not match up well against Serena's aggressive style.

    If you are talking about ratings of club players, however, you have to remember something.

    A 3.0 player does not have all the shots. Indeed, I would guess a 3.0 player would struggle to play more than one style of play. If they are a pusher, they are going to try to grind. If that doesn't work, they are done.

    A 4.0 player has more shots and tactics (my successful female 4.0 singles players sure do). She might be able to take the net. She might have a drop-shot-lob combo she can use. She might have spin.

    So it makes no sense to say that the 3.0's "style" might match up just right against the 4.0's style. 'Cause the 4.0 probably has more than one style, and I promise you she will seize upon the one that will get the job done.
     
  10. Aurellian

    Aurellian Semi-Pro

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    I would discourage anyone from using illegal narcotics. Drugs are bad and don't do anything good for you or your loved ones.

    If you have a substance abuse problem you can contact me and I will try to arrange a treatment program for you based upon counseling and prayer.

    Have a blessed day.
     
  11. souledge

    souledge Semi-Pro

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    10000:1 Odds?
     
  12. souledge

    souledge Semi-Pro

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    It's a TV show reference.
     
  13. Aurellian

    Aurellian Semi-Pro

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    Yea, that encapsulates it: a less skilled player with a weapon(s) against a more experienced and technically sound player.

    The problem is that one can't deploy a weapon on every shot...so the odds are not in favor of the more dynamic player.
     
  14. Aurellian

    Aurellian Semi-Pro

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    I don't watch tv shows where they treat drug use in such a casual manner for the sake of humor. Pardon me.
     
  15. Sumo

    Sumo Semi-Pro

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    Depends on the drug.
     
  16. gameboy

    gameboy Hall of Fame

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    So I have been trying to figure out who is logging in as Aurellian and I think it is Fedace...
     
  17. josofo

    josofo Semi-Pro

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    why is everyone assuming that he is not beating 4.0s. seems just as likely that he is underrating himself. for example he said he was serving 50 percent on 105 mph first serve, i dont really know how a 3.0 could do that and remain a 3.0 that long.

    in my local league the 3.0 are rather bad however some of the 4.0s aren't that great and are just doubles players. for example the better 3.5 would be at least even money vs 6-8 of the doubles only 4.0 players. using me as an example i just lost a 3.5 match to a pretty solid 3.5.

    at 4.0 one team has 11 players. they have 1 guy who beat me 6-1 6-0 both times he played me. one guy who beat me 6-1 7-6 and another guy i hear is rather solid. besides that id probably beat everyone in singles and be live in doubles. on the other team the "seasoned" doubles players are all a little better so id say about 4 guys are significantly better doubles players than me. (though a couple of them have a bit of a gut so maybe i would be live in singles) and the other 5 guys i am either a bit of a favorite vs or a lock to beat in singles. maybe 2 of them are slightly better doubles players than me.

    now i am a 3.5 who lost a match 6-0 6-0 at 3.5 at regional championships. so you can say well you must have a bit of a weak 4.0 league (which we do) but still it demonstrates a lot of the 3.5 vs 4.0 stuff you are talking about. however like i said i have not really seen any talent in the 3.0 league.
     
  18. Arafel

    Arafel Professional

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    First, there is no way a rec player can know that they are hitting 105 mph serves 50 percent of the time and getting them in. What, are they carrying radar gun to their matches and setting it up (and making sure it's set up properly)?

    In my experience, most players seriously overestimate the speed of their serve.
     
  19. josofo

    josofo Semi-Pro

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    i figured 105 is about average for an average joe who says he serves fast.
     
  20. Sumo

    Sumo Semi-Pro

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    Exactamundo.
     
  21. gameboy

    gameboy Hall of Fame

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    HA!!! In many years of playing in USTA 3.5, I have yet to see a single player who had average serves that fast. I once had a teammate who could crank it over 100mph, but he hardly ever hit that during a match (because it was pretty wild).

    I don't even see that in 4.0 play (start seeing it in 4.5).
     
  22. dizzlmcwizzl

    dizzlmcwizzl Hall of Fame

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    This .... I can serve that fast. I often hear my serve is impressive. However, in competition I rarely hit it my hardest in favor of consistency, spin and placement.

    There is no way I would say I (or most I regularly play with) serve it at an average clip of 100 mph. The only guy that I know who does regularly hit serves that hard is a former division I player that is awesome ..... Average hard servers are in the 90-95 MPH range at best.
     
  23. OrangePower

    OrangePower Hall of Fame

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    Only in TT-land.

    I think I've probably said this 20 times in various posts, so forgive me for repeating it yet again...

    105mph is much faster than people realize. We sometimes bring a radar gun out to our 4.5 team practice. More than half the guys struggle to break 100mph at all, let alone at 50% success rate. There are probably only 1 or 2 guys (out of about 20) that can serve 105mph @ 50% rate.

    So at levels lower than 4.5, I would be very skeptical of such claims. Not impossible of course, but highly unlikely.
     
  24. Velvet Ga el

    Velvet Ga el Rookie

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    I thought I'd revisit this because I have now played the TTer in question and because both him and I represent cases where the USTA rating, even when match result-based, doesn't necessarily get it right.

    We're both relative newbies to the sport (him 3 1/2 years, but only recently taking lessons from a local pro on modern strokes, me 2 years and a month) who have been blessed with big serves. And I think because of that our USTA ratings lag a bit, to the point that we're probably both a half-point above where we're rated (I'm 14-2 this year in 4.0 singles, with losses to the top 2 guys in my district, both of whom swing up to 4.5 singles; despite me "winning" yesterday, the TTer was a much tougher matchup than either of those guys). He has a huge serve, and being a lefty, it makes it that much worse; he's also blessed with a heavy forehand and a solid two-handed backhand. With a bit more consistency from the baseline and some work on the transition footwork in the volley game, he'll be a bear to deal with at 4.5 as well.

    Our match was basically a serve fest. I won 7-6 (11-9) and I'd say because of our serves, we might have had fifteen or so good rallies in the entire set. He got an early break to go up 5-3, I held and broke back to get to 5-5, and then we both held to 6-6. I hit a backhand return "winner" that caught the back edge of the baseline for the win. I get the sense that he served much better than the first few games he played you (there were a few double faults, but rarely two in one game and certainly not enough to lose a service game outright because of them), but he had difficulty returning my serve as well.

    It would be interesting to see a match between the TTer and me when both of our serves are off; he's more solid off his backhand than I am, but I get to the net a bit better and play a bit more of an all court game. And if one of us is off with his serve, it'll be a blowout in favor of the other player. Glad I got to him at 20 and not 25 because he'll be impossible by that age.
     
  25. shazbot

    shazbot Semi-Pro

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    Cool story. So OP goes from saying he is a 3.0, to you saying he would be a tough opponent for a 4.5.

    I'm all for a good troll, but this is lame now. Yawn
     
  26. gameboy

    gameboy Hall of Fame

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    Cocaine is a helluva drug...
     
  27. josofo

    josofo Semi-Pro

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    About 5 years ago I served with a radar for about 20 minutes the best I got was 108. Considering my serve got a bit better I'd say my best serves now are about 115.

    I am still rated 3.5 and just lost a match. I play a mid 4.0 level though.
     
  28. gameboy

    gameboy Hall of Fame

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    You would be the only 3.5 (hell even a 4.0) with that serve in the entire country...
     
  29. asimple

    asimple Semi-Pro

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    I bet there are actually quite a few 4.0s who can serve that fast but not consistently. I got clocked last year in the low 100s with a hurt back so I am sure I could get the 108 number and probably even the 115 as I have improved. A friend of mine who is now a 4.5 is 6-4 and easily hit this fast when he was a 4.0.

    Like everyone here though I am a 4.0 who really should be a 4.5:)
     
  30. Velvet Ga el

    Velvet Ga el Rookie

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    Maybe I wasn't clear in my post, but I wasn't trying to say anything about the OP or his game. I'm talking about Talk Tennis user "Kahlz," which is who I played. That kid has a big serve and though he's rated 4.0, I think by now with his lessons he's a bubble 4.5 player. Once he gets a bit more consistent, he'll be a handful at the 4.5 level.

    As for OP, I have trouble believing he's anything more than a mid 3.5. However, he does move well, and I can see him running down enough balls to give a low 4.0 some trouble if the 4.0 was having a bad day. If the 4.0 was built around a serve and not much else, I can also see OP giving him some difficulty before ultimately losing.

    And quite frankly, I though we have already established that OP self-rated too low at 3.0; you pull up his USTA results and you can see that he should be rated a 3.5.

    I'm not sure where the "troll" is unless I was unclear in my original post and you thought I had played the OP.
     
  31. schmke

    schmke Professional

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    Should you not have a radar gun, here is a rough table of the time a served ball should take from server racquet to receiver racquet on the opposite baseline. Time a server from racquet to racquet on a good stopwatch and see where you are:

    0.75 sec = ~82 mph
    0.70 sec = ~88 mph
    0.65 sec = ~95 mph
    0.60 sec = ~103 mph
    0.55 sec = ~112 mph
    0.50 sec = ~124 mph
    0.45 sec = ~138 mph

    This takes into account the slowing of the ball due to aerodynamic drag but assumes a relatively fast court and no dramatic slowing on the bounce. Obviously, temperature, pressure, and humidity can change things as well.
     
  32. Aurellian

    Aurellian Semi-Pro

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    There you go again.....Not reading and assuming....that's why one can't post wit nuances and cavaets because posters fail to comprehend...
     
  33. Aurellian

    Aurellian Semi-Pro

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    Self-assessment of athletic ability is usually problematic as most folks over rate with a substantive number underrating.

    In my case, due to my profession and athletic career it's spot on.

    There is a reason why I am 21/24 for FGs in the my career (HS and JV Ivy ball); not because I am a great kicker, but because I did not make attempts that I was not 100% sure that I was going to make. My HS coach nicknamed me "Nuhuhh" because that was my response about me taking the field to kick a FG in some situations.

    So much better than most, the OP knows what he sucks at and what he can do sufficiently..

    I understand what you are saying about the doubles v singles ratings of players. Some players are holding on to ratings which may not be current.

    I am not sure I stated that I can serve 105mph; although somebody may have posted this and later attributed it to me.

    who knows?

    One thing I will say and have said all along: I am not a good tennis player but my style (hitting harder than everybody I have faced save the pros, a "hot damn" serve, and movement upon desire) allow me to beat players of much more greater experience than myself.

    That's all I am saying.
     
  34. Aurellian

    Aurellian Semi-Pro

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    HAH...That's exactly what I said...The kid could play 4.5 and be a burden.

    You initially said he was a lower mid-level 4.0. I play enough players to know an athlete with weapons when I see them..

    Yeah, he was off when he played me...but a lotta players tend to be off when they play me...dunno what that means.

    He's a pup though;when he is a bit older he will be a very good rec player.
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2013
  35. souledge

    souledge Semi-Pro

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    Not the majority of the time, maybe about 10%?
     
  36. Aurellian

    Aurellian Semi-Pro

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    At first I was a low level 3.5, now a mid-level 3.5, I guess I will have to wait until we play until you say..."yeah, the OP was correct, I can see how he can beats 4.0s even though he is not that technically sound."

    what did the Kid say about my game? A fine young man I might add...

    And that dude I played in League, his tennis is solidly superior to mine ..maybe it was the match up and (perhaps) mentally he saw right through me...but I can tell when I have played a guy who has played for 7/10+ years.

    Ok, so when we gonna play:)?

    For the record, the reason why I may have rated myself too low is because I have primarily played overseas. In the region where I was previously posted, they used old tennis balls;thus, i was getting beat by 52 year old Chinese ladies and their granddaughters. These dead balls make the game much slower and neutralize my strong points and emphasize the strengths of the SEAs who can run all day. It recently dawned on me that it was not simply a coincidence that when I landed at Dulles I became a much better player.
     
  37. Aurellian

    Aurellian Semi-Pro

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    25-30% is likely more accurate. As I said before, not many dudes around here benching 280 so the players don't see the hard flat James Blake style ball. It's not that its wow or anything, but it's just not seen too often.

    the serve is fast but not that fast, it's all muscle, no lower body, so some players who know how to serve properly can do so faster. I have seen people serve as fast as I do but never strike the ball as violently as i do at the club level. My pro, who is a former touring pro, says the only other guy (I assume client) who hits the ball as hard as I do was former NFL strong safety.


    I think that players like me have to change styles because as we get older we can't keep this type of game up. It's just not sustainable. Also, flat hitters need the speed of their legs to get into proper position because our margin of error with our shots is so small. That's why Blake can flash at times but cant do it consistently while Haas is still puttin it down day in and day out.
     
  38. gameboy

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    Cocaine is a helluva drug...
     
  39. souledge

    souledge Semi-Pro

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    So you're saying that at a full NTRP Computer rated difference of 1.0 point, because of a style difference that favors the 3.0, the 3.0 will win 25%-30% of the time when competing with a 4.0? (Say the 3.0 is 2.75 and the 4.0 is 3.75 for example.)
     
  40. josofo

    josofo Semi-Pro

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    its rather hard to believe that someone who would lose a match to a 3.0 could beat a 4.0. regardless of style.

    a 3.0 pusher just wouldn't be good enough. and if he was a hitter 3.0 like i guess op claims, he really shouldn't be playing competitive singles matches with 3.0 if he has the skill to win a 4.0 singles match. i mean he would have to play a really bad match to play competitively with a 3.0 in singles if he had the skill to win 4.0 singles matches.
     
  41. Aurellian

    Aurellian Semi-Pro

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    hmm, maybe not. I will play 4.0 this weekend and see how I do. I am going for a 50% win percent.

    As I indicated earlier, I am a skills based 3.0 as opposed to a NTRP C based 3.0.

    I think I am nothing more than a (relatively) athletic 3.5 with a 109 Mph serve. I had it clocked it today this am and that is what the tennis app indicated. I dunno how accurate these things are. My coach said it looks about 105 to him.

    I think if you can move good, hit hard, and and serve over 100 mph that alone may rate one above 3.0.

    I will say one thing. Playing 3.0 is bad tennis, one just dinks to corners and never really strikes the ball. One can't get better doing that. It's not tennis.

    We shall see and I will keep you all posted.
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2013
  42. ttwarrior1

    ttwarrior1 Professional

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    I agree with the OP

    I played a 4.0 that beat me 6-0 6-0 recently that has lost 6-2 to a 3.5

    Some people simply don't do well against drop shots or slice drop shots or if a medium paced shot is hit back to them, they either underswing or overswing.

    I personally would rather hit a shot hit back to me over 100 mph then 50 any day of the week.
     
  43. HRB

    HRB Professional

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    Even at top pro level there are match up issues...it happens. most recent case...Tsonga blows away Fed at Roland Garros, only to be blown away by Ferrer...who would have gotten blown away by Fed!

    Masha beats everyone...except a certain African American GOAT!
     
  44. samarai

    samarai Rookie

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    When a 3.0 isnt a 3.0. Of course there are inherrent flaws to the rating system. Last time I played league was 1 year and a half ago and was rated at 3.0. To this day, I maintain a 3.0 but really my game is more of a 4.0 after improving by playing daily and taking lessons for last 2 years, I would double bagel all the GOAT 3.0's out there.
     

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