Tennis League Stats-same as USTA in No. CAL???

Discussion in 'Adult League & Tournament Talk' started by 10SGIRL3, Sep 4, 2013.

  1. 10SGIRL3

    10SGIRL3 New User

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    HI there

    I was recently shown "Tennis League Stats" which I had never seen before. On their website, they calculated (I don't know how) my year-end stats to be 4.04.

    I was a 4.0C in USTA this past season. Per the Tennis League Stats page, they show my new ranking to be 4.5. Anyone know if USTA uses a similar formula? I know USTA doesn't post until 12/1. Just curious--thanks to anyone who might know!
     
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  2. dizzlmcwizzl

    dizzlmcwizzl Hall of Fame

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    We have discussed this at length in several threads so you can look it up if you want.

    The summary: TLS ratings have no direct relationship with the USTA ratings. While TLS uses much of the same data as the USTA there is lots of data they do not include and we seriously doubt their formula is the same as the USTAs.

    So do not count on a season ending bump. However, TLS ratings seem to be reasonably accurate if you played a lot of matches.

    For example: I would wager that a player with a 4.04 rating on TLS would get bumped at year end if they had played 30 league matches ... but certainly not if they had played 5 league matches.
     
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  3. dizzlmcwizzl

    dizzlmcwizzl Hall of Fame

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    As an aside I just checked the TLS ratings from June against the Early start ratings from August. I did this for 20 players I knew that either went up or down. All players had more than 6 matches factored into their TLS rating.

    Any who, 10 out of 11 correct predictions for bump ups.

    it was less accurate for bump downs at 5 out of 9.

    So all in all, I feel like it is more accurate this year than it was last year. And certainly better at predicting upward movement.
     
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  4. 10SGIRL3

    10SGIRL3 New User

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    TLS vs USTA

    Thanks for your reply---I played 16 matches this past season. A couple of play off matches but never made it to districts or sectionals, for that matter.

    Wonder why USTA appears to be so secretive? Although, I'm sure there is a reason and prevents someone from over-analyzing the situation-when making line-ups. Who knows.

    I'll wait to see what happens later this year-I appreciate your feedback
     
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  5. OrangePower

    OrangePower Hall of Fame

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    That, plus, Ratings Management.
    If all info was available, including your exact rating, opponents exact rating, and the algorithm used, then imagine you knew going into a match that a 6-3, 6-2 win would get you bumped up, but a 6-3, 6-3 win keeps you at your current level...
     
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  6. BeyondTheTape

    BeyondTheTape New User

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    #6
  7. schmke

    schmke Professional

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    #7
  8. ncgator

    ncgator New User

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    Souther Section Ratings

    I live in NC and would be interested in seeing 2013 Southern Section ratings if you decide to post...
     
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  9. emilyhex

    emilyhex Rookie

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    The reason why TLS is not one-for-one with the USTA, is that TLS doesn't know (to the best of my knowledge) what the starting NTRP to the hundreth of a point is of each player before the start of each match. The algorithm they use is probably very close, if not exactly, what the USTA uses. I don't think it's that complex to be honest.

    If someone were to have access to the exact NTRPs of all players before and after each match, I think reverse engineering the algorithm would be trivial. If you pay close attention to what has been disclosed, the USTA has been somewhat transparent on how it is calculated.
     
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  10. gmatheis

    gmatheis Hall of Fame

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    #10
  11. BeyondTheTape

    BeyondTheTape New User

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    The ratings are out in the Southern Section on "TLS". I wonder how accurate the TLS stats are? (rhetorical) There seems to be more discrepancy in ratings the fewer matches you played with TLS. It's interesting, i'm right on the cusp of getting bumped but i have no back up stats to clarify until the end of November. : (
     
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  12. dblsonly

    dblsonly New User

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    Not so fast

    Last year my end of the season TLS was 4.13 and I did not get bumped to 4.5. One teammate had a 4.17 and another a 4.07. Neither of them were bumped either.
     
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  13. dizzlmcwizzl

    dizzlmcwizzl Hall of Fame

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    Yea ... there was a lot of disagreement last year when comparing end of year ratings and TLS. However, I think was primarily due to a lack of a starting point for TLS ... they only used last years data which introduced considerable error.

    I have found them to have much better agreement this year when comparing TLS and early start ratings in middle states. I think this is due to the use of last years end of year ratings as a starting point for this year.

    Once again, I think TLS gets more accurate with more matches factored into the equation.
     
    #13
  14. keithfival

    keithfival Professional

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    Say it ain't so!!

    I just looked and have a TLS 4.52 in NC, with 17 spring matches played. Thought I was safe with a few losses but all of them were to guys who TLS also shows as being bumped to 5.0.

    Are we seriously thinking TLS is very accurate this year with bump ups?!

    (No problem with the competition, but the league action at 5.0 around here is very minimal. Bye bye USTA year round fun. That would s u c k.)
     
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  15. mikeler

    mikeler G.O.A.T.

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    When do your early start ratings come out?
     
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  16. J_R_B

    J_R_B Hall of Fame

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    I wouldn't count on it quite yet if it says 4.52. They are getting better, but 0.02 is DEFINITELY within their margin of error.
     
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  17. mikeler

    mikeler G.O.A.T.

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    I was listed as a 4.27 on TLS after 2 District matches. In Sectionals, I roughed up a 4.33 and now I'm listed as 5.0 on early start ratings.
     
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  18. keithfival

    keithfival Professional

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    Dunno, a google of NC USTA early start ratings turns up nothing.
     
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  19. keithfival

    keithfival Professional

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    I ******* hope so. I looked at the details and the culprit is the frigging 40+ league that I got dragged into because they didn't have enough players for 2 teams (I'm a young 41). I have 4.68 rating for that league. If I get essentially bumped out of USTA because I did a favor for the stupid 40+ league, which was like a 4.0 league with 2 small teams, I will really really really really be ****ed. Really.
     
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  20. mikeler

    mikeler G.O.A.T.

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    These out of shape 40 year old 4.5s may doom me as well. :(
     
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  21. JJJ

    JJJ New User

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    TLS age/division

    TLS has me under age/division category as 40 & over. However after the 40 season I played 18 & over adult. Does this mean TLS has not yet calculated that league in yet?
     
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  22. J_R_B

    J_R_B Hall of Fame

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    No. They can only list one age division, so they pick the oldest on eyou played in.
     
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  23. dizzlmcwizzl

    dizzlmcwizzl Hall of Fame

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    Hey now ... dont talk to badly about out of shape 40+ 4.5's ... you are talking about me.
     
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  24. ncgator

    ncgator New User

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    NC does not have any early start leagues, so no early start ratings. You can get your early start rating by starting to register for a GA early start league, but not completing the registration. The 2013 TLS ratings are generally lower than GA early start ratings. I know a number of players with 4.5E ratings, but not showing as 4.5 rated by 2013 TLS. I also know of a couple showing 4.0 rating by 2013 TLS, but not bumped down with GA early start rating. We'll know for sure in a couple months...
     
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  25. BeyondTheTape

    BeyondTheTape New User

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    I fall into this category NCGator...TLS shows me 1 rating and the Early Start shows me another. damn this wait.
     
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  26. keithfival

    keithfival Professional

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    How do you do this without a team #? I tried finding a league near atlanta but found no early start, just current 2013 leagues.
     
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2013
    #26
  27. BeyondTheTape

    BeyondTheTape New User

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    I used my current team # and individual membership # under one of Atlanta's leagues. Go to GA-Atlanta-2014.
     
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  28. keithfival

    keithfival Professional

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    I don't have a GA team #, I'm in NC.
     
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  29. BeyondTheTape

    BeyondTheTape New User

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    I dont live in GA either, it took my state's # just fine.
     
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  30. ncgator

    ncgator New User

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    You can act like you are registering a new team in one of the Atlanta 2014 early start leagues. If your rating has changed it will show up with an 'E' after it, rather than 'B' or 'C'. After you see your rating, just cancel out rather than actually registering a new team. You can check the ES rating for anyone if you have their USTA #. In the past couple years, the ES rating was a very good indicator of year-end ratings, but not exact due to the final adjustments made based on national results. Some players that are borderline, could end up with a year-end rating different than the ES rating. I've seen it go both ways - players showing a bumped up or down ES rating, but stay the same with year end. Haven't seen many get bumped up year end that didn't show bumped up ES rating.
     
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  31. keithfival

    keithfival Professional

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    Ok, did this...didn't see any league that said "early start". Would any Winter league team do the trick? I tried starting a winter team and showed up as 4.5C, so safe for now I suppose!
     
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  32. BeyondTheTape

    BeyondTheTape New User

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    Maybe i am registering a different way but...i dont see an E, B, or C. it just tells me my NTRP rating was too high for the league.
     
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  33. ncgator

    ncgator New User

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    Try registering for any Atlanta Winter league team (these are Early Start leagues), and create team at level higher than your current rating (i.e. if you are 4.0, act like you are creating a new 4.5 team). You should be able to then see your rating, and if it's different than your current rating, it will have an 'E' after it for Early Start.
     
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  34. BeyondTheTape

    BeyondTheTape New User

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    I see that now. I tried registering for the current level i was at which is why i received the "NTRP too high" message. By going to the next level up, you see those E,B,C ratings.

    I wonder the % of accuracy Early Start Ratings are compared to Year End Ratings.

    TLS had me at one level and the Early Start Rating as me differently. It will be interesting.
     
    #34
  35. ncgator

    ncgator New User

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    Based on previous years, ES ratings are pretty accurate, although some guys that show ES bump don't get bumped. I think the TLS ratings are generally on the low side, at least for players in my area...
     
    #35
  36. gmatheis

    gmatheis Hall of Fame

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    Did this and it just said "3.5C" both when I created a 3.5 team and when I created a 4.0 team.

    I'm gonna be a pig in you know what if I don't get bumped ... LOL
     
    #36
  37. g4driver

    g4driver Hall of Fame

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    Agree with you on both TLS and ES ratings, but the ES ratings have missed on me and a friend the past two years.

    TLS misses the mark on guys in my area. The only way to accurately reflect TLS's accuracy is how many people they expect to get bumped vs those who actually do. In Dec, TLS's accuracy will be showcased.
     
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  38. BeyondTheTape

    BeyondTheTape New User

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    How did ES miss on you the past two years?
     
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  39. g4driver

    g4driver Hall of Fame

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    In 2011 & 2012, I created a fake 3.5 team in Atlanta in Nov after the Nationals were factored in . In 2011, 2012 and currently in 2013, I got the error "rating too high for this team"

    If you want to do this process, just create a team in the Southern Section / GA / Atlanta for the fall / enter your level / I use Bitsy Grant as the facility / then name the team 3.5, 4.0. , 4,5 or whatever you want - Enter your usta # and then add yourself to the team- If your rating is too high you will get a error message. Next create a new team 0.5 higher and add yourself to that team. If the ESR has you been bumped, you will get a rating like 4.0E, 4.5E. You can do this for anyone if your know their USTA number.

    So I then created a fake 4.0 team, and I got a 4.0E rating in both 2011 & 2012. Did the same for 2013 (although Nationals aren't factored in yet).

    If I had played in Atlanta, in the fall of 2011 or 2012, I would have had an ESR of 4.0, then bumped back down to 3.5 when the year end ratings were released.

    In 2011, three of my teammates had 4.0E ratings, only one was bumped. In 2012, four teammates had 4.0E ratings, and two were bumped.

    I was just trying up say the the ES rating was 4.0, but I wasn't bumped in 2011 / 2012. Sorry I wasn't clear.
     
    #39
  40. BeyondTheTape

    BeyondTheTape New User

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    I did the same thing and i am in the same situation as you were. I am curious to what TLS said about your rating those years that ES had you bumped but the Year End Rating had you remaining at 3.5.
     
    #40
  41. g4driver

    g4driver Hall of Fame

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    I don't think TLS provided any info for the Southern Section on 2011.
     
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  42. BeyondTheTape

    BeyondTheTape New User

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    I see they dont keep 2011 stats. i wonder if TLS was accurate for you during 2012, interesting.
     
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  43. g4driver

    g4driver Hall of Fame

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    http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=477789

    TLS missed 25 out of 28 forecasts for bumps at my facility in 2012. TLS and Kevin have me rated .22 apart. That's a large spread IMO. It's a funny thing about these ratings. Sometimes, they just seem way off.
     
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  44. ncgator

    ncgator New User

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    Keep in mind that the ES rating is based on just your current dynamic rating, and the final year-end ratings year-end rating is based on a combination of your dynamic rating and final 'adjustment' based on comparison to benchmark players based on post-season results. You could be on the bubble based on dynamic rating, and the final year-end adjustment could either keep you at your current level or get you bumped. Results at state, sectional and national championships influence your final year-end rating.
     
    #44
  45. BeyondTheTape

    BeyondTheTape New User

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    So does my current ES rating reflect my State results or is post season play only factored with the Year-end Rating? I'm trying to wrap my mind around this which will never happen.
     
    #45
  46. schmke

    schmke Professional

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    It depends on the cut-off date for early start ratings and perhaps section policy. In my section (PNW) our early start cut-off date was in late June and any playoffs played by then were included, but our 40 & over league had not had playoffs yet so those were not included.
     
    #46
  47. g4driver

    g4driver Hall of Fame

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    I understand all DNTRPs are adjusted after Nationals-

    Whatever happens to me, I have a spot on a 4.0 team, my same 7.0 & 8.0 Mixed and 7.5 & 8.5 Combo teams- that is all that really matters-

    I don't get paid to play tennis, but I do enjoy playing the game. :)
     
    #47
  48. dizzlmcwizzl

    dizzlmcwizzl Hall of Fame

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    I would agree that there was a lot of disagreement in 2012, which was the first year for TLS.

    At least for our section, when comparing the early start ratings with the mid season TLS posting this summer .... they were much, much better.

    I suspect if they continue to produce these ratings, then TLS will continue to improve their ability to predict bumps ... to a point.
     
    #48

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