The Big 3 era is inflated due to lacking competition from outside Europe

Rovesciarete

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Europe’s rise relative to the US is due to many factors, a small one might also have to do with height. I’m due certainly among the 5% tallest Italian males, just like Sinner. If the ideal tennis height has shifted a lot northern, central, northeastern and ex-Jugo Europe will have a leg up, especially concerning female players.



Average_height_of_male_19-year-olds_by_country_in_2019.svg



Average_height_of_female_19-year-olds_by_country_in_2019.svg



Early in Tennis the UK, US and OZ played basically with the cheat codes wealth and health against everybody else. Now others, especially Eastern Europeans unlocked them, while most Africans and Asians are still without. The nutritional advantage has turned into a depressing factor for height, even Americans of old European stock are getting shorter…
 
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insideguy

G.O.A.T.
ActualTennisPlayer said:
Read my first point again, I said that Sweden and Germany declined.

Not sure about how valid your soccer comparison is. Yes, Japan and USA improved in soccer but they still suck vs European nations. Meanwhile, in basketball and tennis European nations are great now. Not sure about hockey, that’s why I asked you.

Notice also that my first post about American sports was a question. I want to know more about the topic and discover the truth. It’s not really appropriate to call that “idiotic” and saying that I have no clue about the US. We can easily do this in a cooperative way :)
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Sigh. Japan just beat Germany in the World Cup in soccer sunshine. And no European nations are not better than USA in basketball. There are good players that come from Europe but overall the USA is better than any European nation in basketball. The actual real reason all these things are more competitive is there are more countries that have high level tennis players and athletes than ever. Most Eastern European countries barely produced tennis players back in the 60, 70s, 80s. So most of the good tennis players came from a half dozen countries. Even countries like Spain had issues as they were under a fascist dictatorship for a long time. You guys always want to make things so complicated. More countries produce more tennis talent than ever. And none of this is a bad thing. It use to be Venezuela didnt produce many good baseball players. Now they do. It use to be Cuba produced many great baseball players. Now they dont produce as many. Heck it use to be the USA didnt produce very many good hockey players now they do. The NHL was like 90 percent Canadian back in the old days. Now its not.

Your so busy trying to recreate the wheel with you weird ideas you cant see the answer thats staring you right in the face. More people from more countries have resources to develop programs in various sports that can compete in these athletic competitions.

It wasnt even that long ago that Serbia had multiple men and women in the top 10 in tennis. Now they have one. Things are cyclical.
 
A

ActualTennisPlayer

Semi-Pro
insideguy said:
Sigh. Japan just beat Germany in the World Cup in soccer sunshine. And no European nations are not better than USA in basketball. There are good players that come from Europe but overall the USA is better than any European nation in basketball. The actual real reason all these things are more competitive is there are more countries that have high level tennis players and athletes than ever. Most Eastern European countries barely produced tennis players back in the 60, 70s, 80s. So most of the good tennis players came from a half dozen countries. Even countries like Spain had issues as they were under a fascist dictatorship for a long time. You guys always want to make things so complicated. More countries produce more tennis talent than ever. And none of this is a bad thing. It use to be Venezuela didnt produce many good baseball players. Now they do. It use to be Cuba produced many great baseball players. Now they dont produce as many. Heck it use to be the USA didnt produce very many good hockey players now they do. The NHL was like 90 percent Canadian back in the old days. Now its not.

Your so busy trying to recreate the wheel with you weird ideas you cant see the answer thats staring you right in the face. More people from more countries have resources to develop programs in various sports that can compete in these athletic competitions.

It wasnt even that long ago that Serbia had multiple men and women in the top 10 in tennis. Now they have one. Things are cyclical.
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Germany is getting destroyed by everybody at the moment (Austria, Turkey) and it’s related to bad coaching and bad team chemistry. The talent is still there. Japan and US is still miles away from the top.

We actually have very similar views: eastern Europe, smaller countries in Europe and Spain improved in the last 30 years in tennis compared to the US. US, Sweden and Germany got weaker compared to these countries.

The gap between European and American basketball got much closer, too. White Americans are now worse than europeans.

I am making no statement whatsoever whether that is cyclical or not.
 
I

insideguy

G.O.A.T.
ActualTennisPlayer said:
Germany is getting destroyed by everybody at the moment (Austria, Turkey) and it’s related to bad coaching and bad team chemistry. The talent is still there. Japan and US is still miles away from the top.

We actually have very similar views: eastern Europe, smaller countries in Europe and Spain improved in the last 30 years in tennis compared to the US. US, Sweden and Germany got weaker compared to these countries.

The gap between European and American basketball got much closer, too. White Americans are now worse than europeans.

I am making no statement whatsoever whether that is cyclical or not.
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What are you even talking about white Americans got worse? Maybe black Americans got better they have better resources than they had before to get into these sports. What you are saying is incredibly stupid. Both Japan and USA have players in the top soccer leagues in Europe. 20 years ago this was unheard of. Literally. I dont even understand WTF you are saying. 10 years ago Spain had like 5 or 6 players in the top 20 in tennis. Now they have one. Are Spanish heritage players getting worse? Your idiot white Americans stuff is just idiocy. A few years ago Canada had a couple players in the top 20 in tennis. Now they have none. There use to be a steady flow of very good South American players that were very good at tennis. Now there are not very many. Are South American hispanics also losing it?

You are all over the place. Japan beat both Spain and Germany in the World Cup. I understand Germany hasn't played that well lately. And Spain was playing some of their backups. That being said it would have been unheard of for Japan to even beat these versions of these clubs 20 years ago. It would never ever happen. It use to be Brazil dominated in World Cup football. They haven't won one since 2002. The entire world is getting better at various sports. It has nothing to do with White Americans or whatever other nonsense race ideas you have.

Not very long ago there were many african Americans in Baseball. Now there are not very many at all. They are not as involved in that sport as they are in Football and Basketball. But that doesn't mean that there are not many that are very capable of doing well. Its just that they are not as interested as they were in the 60s, 70s, and 80s.
 
A

ActualTennisPlayer

Semi-Pro
insideguy said:
What are you even talking about white Americans got worse? Maybe black Americans got better they have better resources than they had before to get into these sports. What you are saying is incredibly stupid. Both Japan and USA have players in the top soccer leagues in Europe. 20 years ago this was unheard of. Literally. I dont even understand WTF you are saying. 10 years ago Spain had like 5 or 6 players in the top 20 in tennis. Now they have one. Are Spanish heritage players getting worse? Your idiot white Americans stuff is just idiocy. A few years ago Canada had a couple players in the top 20 in tennis. Now they have none. There use to be a steady flow of very good South American players that were very good at tennis. Now there are not very many. Are South American hispanics also losing it?

You are all over the place. Japan beat both Spain and Germany in the World Cup. I understand Germany hasn't played that well lately. And Spain was playing some of their backups. That being said it would have been unheard of for Japan to even beat these versions of these clubs 20 years ago. It would never ever happen. It use to be Brazil dominated in World Cup football. They haven't won one since 2002. The entire world is getting better at various sports. It has nothing to do with White Americans or whatever other nonsense race ideas you have.

Not very long ago there were many african Americans in Baseball. Now there are not very many at all. They are not as involved in that sport as they are in Football and Basketball. But that doesn't mean that there are not many that are very capable of doing well. It’s just that they are not as interested as they were in the 60s, 70s, and 80s.
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I just asked a question whether white Americans got worse in sports. You say they don’t. That’s fine for me. I don’t want to debate that because I haven’t reached a conclusion on this subject.

Ironically, 20 years ago South Korea beat Spain and Germany was very lucky to beat them. At the euro 2004 Greece won. At the euro 2000 Germany and England didn’t leave the group stage (Romania and Portugal did). Upsets in soccer are very normal. Look I am admittedly clueless about hockey and baseball. But you don’t know that much about soccer either. Japan and US are far from the top.
 
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S

SonnyT

Legend
Three European players from small countries lead the NBA in triple doubles: Lithuanian Sabonis, likely MVP Serbian Jovic, and likely top scorer Slovenian Doncic. The least among the three was 17 from Doncic; the fourth place has 8, from the Greek Freak. So actually the top 4 are from Europe.

It's time for World vs America in the All-Stars game.
 
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RS

RS

Bionic Poster
Kralingen said:
The Big 3 era is finally coming to a close, after nearly 20 years of dominance. 65 Slams. 17 Year-End #1s. 908 weeks at #1. 289 titles. A truly unprecedented level of dominance from these 3 greats. Undoubtedly, special players in any era and conditions.
But is this incredible dominance due to favorable circumstances out of their control?

Their era is a massive anomaly and complete departure from tennis history, due to:

The complete lack of any strong challengers from non-European countries, especially Australia and the USA.

Some statistics:

1877-1968 Slams (pre-Open Era) -

177 Men’s Singles Slams won by Americans/Australians (over 2/3s of total Slams held)
157 Women’s Singles Slams won by Americans/Australians (over 2/3s of total Slams held)

1968-2003 (Open Era) -

70 Men’s Singles Slams won by Americans/Australians (50% of total Slams held)
67 Women’s Singles Slams won by Americans/Australians (48% of total Slams held)

2004-2023 (Big 3 era) -
ZERO Men’s Singles Slams won by Americans/Australians (0% of total Slams held)
25 Women’s Singles Slams won by Americans/Australians (32% of total Slams held)


What jumps out?


—

While the pre-Open Era mainly was dominated by upper class Anglo-Saxons playing the sport for fun, Australia and the US clearly had a dominant grip on the sport. Even in just the Open Era, from 1968-2003. once tennis had become more of a worldwide sport and standardized, Australia still produced 20 Singles titles and the USA produced an astounding 50 Singles titles. These two countries continued to dominate tennis, winning 70 Slams out of 140 tries, equalling the rest of the world combined.

And then, in 2004… this completely stopped.

It’s not only that the Slam dominance stopped. It’s that they stopped coming close to winning a Slam whatsoever. The athletes and all-time-great talents from these two stories countries ceased to exist. From 2004-2023, players from these countries only got to 6 combined Slam finals — and only one after 2009. after Roddick in 2003, 0 players reached world #1. Simply put, the lack of talent is a massive unprecedented anomaly in the history of tennis.

Compare the 2004-2023 American/Australian players to their predecessors:
Andy Roddick. Lleyton Hewitt. John Isner. Nick Kyrgios. Taylor Fritz. Mardy Fish. James Blake. Bernard Tomic. Alex De Minaur. Sam Querrey. Mark Phillippoussis.

Compared to:
Rod Laver. Pete Sampras. Ken Rosewall. Jimmy Connors. John Newcombe. John McEnroe. Andre Agassi. Pancho Gonzalez. Roy Emerson. Pat Rafter. Arthur Ashe. Jim Courier.

I am not just comparing resumes in a surface-level stats-counting; it isn’t just the accomplishments drying up. The playing level is the issue.

Compare any player from the top list to the bottom list. They don’t deserve to even be in the same conversation ability wise. And even the best of the bunch, Roddick and Hewitt, who had success before 2004 in the “Open Era” are far inferior, with clear mental, physical, and technical flaws, compared to legendary champions like Sampras, Laver, McEnroe, Agassi, Connors and Rosewall.

And then somehow, it got much worse than Roddick and Hewitt… even though both were already a clear two rungs below the elite talents from their countries.
The best players since the oft-injured Roddick and Hewitt fell off their perch and ceased to be Slam contenders in 2005? Two hopelessly limited servebots in John Isner and Nick Kyrgios, both of whom have an ATG serve and a world #150 return game.

The rest of the world hasn’t picked up the slack either. Argentina did produce two Slams in Gaudio and Del Potro, but that’s it. Canadian, Japanese, and South African players were hopelessly overmatched compared to Europeans, getting shellacked in straights in every one of their Slam finals.

Also boosting this theory is the fact that America and Australia didn’t fall off in women’s tennis, just men’s. Since 2004 they still won 25 Slams, producing two true ATGs in the Williams sisters and 3 more Slams from a dominant #1 in Ash Barty before retirement. Comparatively, the Men haven’t come anywhere near the same stratosphere as the Williams sisters in talent or achievements.

Clearly, there has been an unprecedented drop in men’s tennis interest in countries which had produced the most talent and most ATGs by far. It’s like if Brazil stopped producing forwards, Germany stopped producing midfielders, and Italy stopped producing defenders.

We know that the Big 3 are the best European players ever. But they were only ever tested against fellow Europeans, never facing true talents from the historic tennis hotbeds. Their dominance feels hollow looking at it historically.

How much of the Big 3’s gaudy numbers and success can we ascribe to the massive talent glut from the rest of the world?
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Also just remembered that in that 1877-1968 period a lot of slams were missed so US and Australia would likely look even more dominant.
 
A

ActualTennisPlayer

Semi-Pro
Kralingen said:

So many of you don’t know ball and need to learn it.

LeBron’s podcast is a good place to start.
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Team USA vs Team Europe … who wins?
The core of team Europe would be Luka, Giannis and Jokic. Then I would add some nice complimentary pieces such as Franz Wagner and OG Anunoby. But you can make your own team Europe with different players if u wish.
 
Kralingen

Kralingen

Talk Tennis Guru
ActualTennisPlayer said:
Team USA vs Team Europe … who wins?
The core of team Europe would be Luka, Giannis and Jokic. Then I would add some nice complimentary pieces such as Franz Wagner and OG Anunoby. But you can make your own team Europe with different players if u wish.
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Great question. So the actual best 5s (plus subs) for Europe would probably be something gigantic, like the shortest player is 6’8” or something. I mean imagine this lineup for a second…

Luka
OG
Wembanyama
Giannis
Jokic

I’m not sure if that’s really maximizing Wemby especially, but that’s terrifying on offense. Giannis is basically the souped up Aaron Gordon role on steroids next to Jokic, the little short roll action with him in the dunkers spot and Jokic either floater or lob would be unstoppable.

And then you’ve got Luka on the perimeter arguably the most talented isolation player we’ve ever seen, great passer, incredible shotmaker. OG cleaning up in the corner and playing elite defense. Oh and then there’s the 7’5” guy who can shoot 3s at 45%.

The US has a bit more versatility it can bring with a much deeper pool of players and obviously has the guard and speed advantage, with Curry, Mitchell, Edwards, etc.

But ultimately Europe has the 3 best guys on the floor in Jokic Giannis and Luka, and can rotate in Sabonis and Gobert to always marshal the paint. They might get cooked on the perimeter defensively, but I think they’d find a way to win more often than not.
 
Kralingen

Kralingen

Talk Tennis Guru
Poisoned Slice said:
@Kralingen

What exactly is ISO? You'd think I would know such a thing. Is it being a greedy ball hog and doing it on your own?
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Isolation. Basically, I have this guy guarding me, I know he can’t guard me, I am going to go by him and score.

Is it greedy ball hog ball? Yes, very much so. But honestly, if you have a mismatch (someone too slow for you, or too small), it’s pretty good, low risk offense.

Think of Antony getting the ball on the wing.

Luka is unbelievable at this. He’s so strong and has such good footwork and touch.
 
RS

RS

Bionic Poster
Kralingen said:
Isolation. Basically, I have this guy guarding me, I know he can’t guard me, I am going to go by him and score.

Is it greedy ball hog ball? Yes, very much so. But honestly, if you have a mismatch (someone too slow for you, or too small), it’s pretty good, low risk offense.

Think of Antony getting the ball on the wing.

Luka is unbelievable at this. He’s so strong and has such good footwork and touch.
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After Basketball/Tennis/Football what sport do you like most of the rest?
 
Kralingen

Kralingen

Talk Tennis Guru
RS said:
After Basketball/Tennis/Football what sport do you like most of the rest?
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Not sure if I really have a favourite beyond those 4 (assuming by football you meant both European and American) tbh. I dedicate a lot of time to the sports I do follow so the rest is only peripherally.

I’m American so I like to watch playoff ice hockey and baseball. Hockey is an intense, fun, fast paced sport. Don’t turn either on during the season but it’s fun.

Not really into combat sports, but I’ll watch a good fight be it boxing or MMA. Oh and I watch the Tour de France every year. Olympics I find the track & field events, gymnastics, and volleyball/badminton pretty fascinating.
 
RS

RS

Bionic Poster
Yes most sports I find quite fun but it's too much time to follow a big chunk of them and learn about them.

Olympics is truly great but I haven't been up for it as much since the 2012 one in London. Was great that year.

Covid (2020 and Zika virus (2016) didn't help.
 
I

insideguy

G.O.A.T.
ActualTennisPlayer said:
I just asked a question whether white Americans got worse in sports. You say they don’t. That’s fine for me. I don’t want to debate that because I haven’t reached a conclusion on this subject.

Ironically, 20 years ago South Korea beat Spain and Germany was very lucky to beat them. At the euro 2004 Greece won. At the euro 2000 Germany and England didn’t leave the group stage (Romania and Portugal did). Upsets in soccer are very normal. Look I am admittedly clueless about hockey and baseball. But you don’t know that much about soccer either. Japan and US are far from the top.
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I have a good grasp on soccer, my wife is German. I watch it all the time. The USA in tennis is actually very similar to the USA women's soccer team. 20 years ago the USA was one of a few nations that put a lot of resources into its ladies teams. Most countries in the world did not including most of those in Europe. Ironically 20 years ago China was also a powerhouse in women's soccer now they stink. But the rest of the world has been putting a lot of time and money into building up good programs and running academies for the ladies. Now the USA is not nearly as dominant as it use to be. And its only going to get tougher for single teams to dominate. Because instead of 3 or 4 countries that built good ladies soccer programs you have 15 or 20. And in another 20 years it will be 30. Thats just the way it is.
 
RS

RS

Bionic Poster
I used to love Strongman. Most of my all timers have retired now within recent years I just haven't got back into it yet.
 
Kralingen

Kralingen

Talk Tennis Guru
RS said:
Yes most sports I find quite fun but it's too much time to follow a big chunk of them and learn about them.

Olympics is truly great but I haven't been up for it as much since the 2012 one in London. Was great that year.
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I’m really excited for this year. 2021 was a big letdown, not that the sports were bad, but just the time zones and the lack of crowds really took away from my enjoyment. Paris is a global city and it’ll be a full house. Plus it’s rumored LeBron will be going for his final gold
 
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NeutralFan

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
RS said:
Yes most sports I find quite fun but it's too much time to follow a big chunk of them and learn about them.

Olympics is truly great but I haven't been up for it as much since the 2012 one in London. Was great that year.

Covid (2020 and Zika virus (2016) didn't help.
Click to expand...

True, i stopped following football except my club is playing or there's some big matches on.
 
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T

TheGoldenEra1990’s

Semi-Pro
I haven’t looked at any numbers but. A more “global sport” should entail more people getting into the sport worldwide? Which should entail more good players just based on law of averages I would assume. So why is the field overrall as thin as it’s ever been on talent? I swear everyone is going to pickleball. We are still basically back to where we’re 15 years ago. But instead of 3 guys winning everything it’s now TWO guys LOL. You would think with more popularity worldwide you would at least a legit 10 man tour of solid top dudes around capable of winning on any surface at any top tournament

Why did you have so many better players 20-30 years ago than you do now? Makes no sense
 
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RS

RS

Bionic Poster
Off head we both did

Ali vs Norton 2 and 3
Ali vs Jones
Ali vs Frazier 1
Reid vs Calzaghe
Holmes vs Norton
Uysk vs Briedis
Fury vs McDermott
Lewis vs Mercer
Frampton vs Quigg
Morales vs Barrera
Pac vs Marquez 1 and 3
Mayweather vs Castillo
Whitaker vs Chavez
Whitaker vs forgot who (Mcgirt)

May have forgot some others.
 
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RS

RS

Bionic Poster
Right just checked I missed Bradley Provodnikov and Oscar Mosley. I left out the one's I did on my own of course which was a few.
 
NeutralFan

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
Is there anyone who is bored of sports in general these days and can't find it exciting?
TheGoldenEra1990’s said:
I haven’t looked at any numbers but. A more “global sport” should entail more people getting into the sport worldwide? Which should entail more good players just based on law averages I would assume. So why is the field overrall as thin as it’s ever been on talent? I swear everyone is going to pickleball. We are still basically back to where we’re 15 years ago. But instead of 3 guys winning everything it’s now TWO guys LOL. You would think with more popularity worldwide you would at least a legit 10 man tour of solid top dudes around capable of winning on any surface at any top tournament

Why did you have so many better players 20-30 years ago than you do now? Makes no sense
Click to expand...

Increasing popularity worldwide doesn't necessarily mean participants or talents from world wide. Tennis is quite popular outside in Asia but where are the Asian talents? Albiet it's popularity is non-existent in Africa
 
A

ActualTennisPlayer

Semi-Pro
Kralingen said:
Great question. So the actual best 5s (plus subs) for Europe would probably be something gigantic, like the shortest player is 6’8” or something. I mean imagine this lineup for a second…

Luka
OG
Wembanyama
Giannis
Jokic

I’m not sure if that’s really maximizing Wemby especially, but that’s terrifying on offense. Giannis is basically the souped up Aaron Gordon role on steroids next to Jokic, the little short roll action with him in the dunkers spot and Jokic either floater or lob would be unstoppable.

And then you’ve got Luka on the perimeter arguably the most talented isolation player we’ve ever seen, great passer, incredible shotmaker. OG cleaning up in the corner and playing elite defense. Oh and then there’s the 7’5” guy who can shoot 3s at 45%.

The US has a bit more versatility it can bring with a much deeper pool of players and obviously has the guard and speed advantage, with Curry, Mitchell, Edwards, etc.

But ultimately Europe has the 3 best guys on the floor in Jokic Giannis and Luka, and can rotate in Sabonis and Gobert to always marshal the paint. They might get cooked on the perimeter defensively, but I think they’d find a way to win more often than not.
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Good analysis. I agree with you mostly. Here are some thoughts of mine.

1) A lot will depend how good jokic, doncic and Giannis can play together. Offensively I think it will be incredible. Defensively a lot of people think that jokic and doncic are bad. I don’t think that’s the case. I think they are solid and will be even more if they have to do less on offensive (which would be the case for team Europe).

2) at the 4 and 5 positions Europe has higher quality back ups. But at the guard and wing positions, the back ups are much worse. You even will have 1 or 2 much worse starters (1 if you move somebody like Giannis or Markannen to the 3). But then if you already have 3 top players on the court, how much does number 4 and 5 matter? Booker, Tatum, Jaylen Brown are much better than Franz Wagner, OG Anunoby, the bogdanovic’s… but the latter only need to defend, cut, hit the threes and will get plenty of open looks… so how relevant is it?
 
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