The - If he was in it, he would have won it - thread

[Hitman]

I was watching some of Pete's run of summer 99 back recently.

For those that don't know, in 98, Pete was hellbent on breaking Connor's 5 straight year ending number ones, he pushed so hard to break that record, that he sacrificed playing at the AO 99 a few months later. He didn't really get going until we got back onto the grass, and that point, he caught fire.

Pete won four titles in a row, Queens, Wimbledon, LA and Cincinnati, which included him beating Agassi in both W and LA finals. He was without question the best player heading into the USO and the clear favorite to win it. He ends up injuring his back in Indianapolis, which put his USO campaign in doubt. When the USO started, Pete was given up until Wednesday to play his first round match, but when Wednesday came, he had to pull out. It was a title where he was the outright front runner, no one was playing as good as he was at the time, but fate had other plans. Agassi stepped in and picked up his second USO title by beating Todd Martin, in Martin's second and final grand slam appearance, his first being AO 94.

To me, this was one that will always stand out as a golden slam opportunity missed. Which other notable examples come to mind?

 

[Mainad]

It used to be said of any AO in which Djokovic didn't participate eg. when he was banned from entering the country. Given his recent loss there to Sinner maybe not so much anymore.

 

[Hitman]

It used to be said of any AO in which Djokovic didn't participate eg. when he was banned from entering the country. Given his recent loss there to Sinner maybe not so much anymore.

It's only really AO 2022 in his case. He was in all the AOs during his career.

 

[Lauren_Girl']

It used to be said of any AO in which Djokovic didn't participate eg. when he was banned from entering the country. Given his recent loss there to Sinner maybe not so much anymore.

Meh. He won the AO2023 with a harmstring injury and with one of his largest margin ever (similar to AO2011). Beat all his seeds in straight sets. Nothing can convince me he wouldn't have been the huge favorite of the tournament in 2022 (specially with the draw he had... Kecmanovic, Paul, Sonego, Monfils, Berrettini, Nadal, Medvedev). Same for Wimbledon 2020 if the tournament had been held. He won in 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2022 (and was undefeated in 2020) so he was definitely the biggest victim of this cancellation. Alcaraz and Sinner were miles from their current level. Who would have beaten him in BO5, seriously? Nothing is ever 100% certain in a sport like tennis, but Djokovic winning W20 and AO2022 is close to it.

 

[nolefam_2024]

It used to be said of any AO in which Djokovic didn't participate eg. when he was banned from entering the country. Given his recent loss there to Sinner maybe not so much anymore.

That is a lie.

Djokovic could lose to Medvedev. He had already lost to Medvedev in USopen..

What wouldn't happen is the dirtballer getting another calendar grand slam. Let's not make it more than what it was ok.

 

[mehdimike]

Meh. He won the AO2023 with a harmstring injury and with one of his largest margin ever (similar to AO2011). Beat all his seeds in straight sets. Nothing can convince me he wouldn't have been the huge favorite of the tournament in 2022 (specially with the draw he had... Kecmanovic, Paul, Sonego, Monfils, Berrettini, Nadal, Medvedev). Same for Wimbledon 2020 if the tournament had been held. He won in 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2022 (and was undefeated in 2020) so he was definitely the biggest victim of this cancellation. Alcaraz and Sinner were miles from their current level. Who would have beaten him in BO5, seriously? Nothing is ever 100% certain in a sport like tennis, but Djokovic winning W20 and AO2022 is close to it.

At Wimb 2020 I could see Nadal challenge Novak in a normal season. But A0 2022?! It's hard to think anyone who could challenge Novak!

 

[MichaelNadal]

At Wimb 2020 I could see Nadal challenge Novak in a normal season. But A0 2022?! It's hard to think anyone who could challenge Novak!

Thankfully we didn't have to worry about that

 

[Mainad]

That is a lie.

Djokovic could lose to Medvedev. He had already lost to Medvedev in USopen..

What wouldn't happen is the dirtballer getting another calendar grand slam. Let's not make it more than what it was ok.

Thought you were a supporter. Aren't you?

 

[The_Order]

Can't say he would have won them all...

But had Nadal been fit for WIM09, US12, AO13, US14 he would have been a top 2 favorite in each of those events.

He also would have had a pretty good shot at US20.

 

[Hitman]

Can't say he would have won them all...

But had Nadal been fit for WIM09, US12, AO13, US14 he would have been a top 2 favorite in each of those events.

He also would have had a pretty good shot at US20.

In what sequence would you personally rank those, from most likely to least likely?

 

[jl809]

Wim 09 Ned
USO 12 Ned
USO 20 Ned
AO 22 Djoker
USO 22 Djoker
RG 23 Ned

 

[RS]

Wim 09 Ned
USO 12 Ned
USO 20 Ned
AO 22 Djoker
USO 22 Djoker
RG 23 Ned

I would take the deal.

 

[StrongRule]

Meh. He won the AO2023 with a harmstring injury and with one of his largest margin ever (similar to AO2011). Beat all his seeds in straight sets. Nothing can convince me he wouldn't have been the huge favorite of the tournament in 2022 (specially with the draw he had... Kecmanovic, Paul, Sonego, Monfils, Berrettini, Nadal, Medvedev). Same for Wimbledon 2020 if the tournament had been held. He won in 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2022 (and was undefeated in 2020) so he was definitely the biggest victim of this cancellation. Alcaraz and Sinner were miles from their current level. Who would have beaten him in BO5, seriously? Nothing is ever 100% certain in a sport like tennis, but Djokovic winning W20 and AO2022 is close to it.

He never had any injuries. If you want to see what an injury is, look what is happening to Nadal now. AO 2023 was one of the weakest slams in history. (one of, because DO 2023 somehow was even weaker)

 

[Hitman]

He never had any injuries. If you want to see what an injury is, look what is happening to Nadal now. AO 2023 was one of the weakest slams in history. (one of, because DO 2023 somehow was even weaker)

When was the last strong slam win by anyone and why? Because it appears you don't think there was a single strong slam for the last decade or even more.

 

[The_Order]

In what sequence would you personally rank those, from most likely to least likely?

US12 - Obv can't go off NA HC form, but it wasn't crash hot in 2011 and 2017 where he was RU and Champ at the US Open. I can't see him losing to Murray on the way to the final and since Djok struggled that badly in the wind v Murray, he's not beating Nadal. Unlikely he doesn't reach the final either, given he was there in 2010, 2011 and 2013.
US14 - Fed and Djok were poor by their standards in this event. Despite Cilic and Nishikori's form, I can't see a fit Nadal dropping a title win to either. Again, unlikely he doesn't reach the final either as stated above.
WIM09 - This was before he sucked at Wimbledon. In 2009 his form was great before losing at RG. Had he remained healthy, he'd be favored to get through Hewitt, Roddick and Murray. He'd have another tough battle with Fed but mentally he had the edge over him at the time too, so he'd have a good chance.
US20 - Oldal would still be favored to get through either of the two chokers in the final. If he had to face Thiem before the final, then I can see him losing that one but it could go either way imo. Same deal with Zed.
AO13 - If he gets to the final, it's a tougher match than 2019, but not sure it'd have been as big a battle as 2012 AO final. Djok likely edges him out in 4 or 5 sets.

 

[The_Order]

When was the last strong slam win by anyone and why? Because it appears you don't think there was a single strong slam for the last decade or even more.

Don't know what he thinks, but for me its RG22.

FAA played really well, Djok was in hot form having won Rome without dropping a set and reached the QF without losing a set either, Zed playing some of his best slam tennis of his life in humid conditions that really suited his game. Ruud was a pushover of course, but the path to the final was tough, only Nadal is getting through that draw.

 

[Hitman]

US12 - Obv can't go off NA HC form, but it wasn't crash hot in 2011 and 2017 where he was RU and Champ at the US Open. I can't see him losing to Murray on the way to the final and since Djok struggled that badly in the wind v Murray, he's not beating Nadal. Unlikely he doesn't reach the final either, given he was there in 2010, 2011 and 2013.
US14 - Fed and Djok were poor by their standards in this event. Despite Cilic and Nishikori's form, I can't see a fit Nadal dropping a title win to either. Again, unlikely he doesn't reach the final either as stated above.
WIM09 - This was before he sucked at Wimbledon. In 2009 his form was great before losing at RG. Had he remained healthy, he'd be favored to get through Hewitt, Roddick and Murray. He'd have another tough battle with Fed but mentally he had the edge over him at the time too, so he'd have a good chance.
US20 - Oldal would still be favored to get through either of the two chokers in the final. If he had to face Thiem before the final, then I can see him losing that one but it could go either way imo. Same deal with Zed.
AO13 - If he gets to the final, it's a tougher match than 2019, but not sure it'd have been as big a battle as 2012 AO final. Djok likely edges him out in 4 or 5 sets.

Fair enough. I actually think USO 2020 was the biggest missed opportunity, had he played, he would have likely won considering what we saw from both Thiem and Zverev.

 

[The_Order]

Fair enough. I actually think USO 2020 was the biggest missed opportunity, had he played, he would have likely won considering what we saw from both Thiem and Zverev.

Yeah, like I said, Thiem was pretty good before the final so if he was in that side of the draw, it'd be a tossup. Can't really say the same about Zed, he almost **** the bed against PCB but Zed does give Nadal trouble so not a foregone conclusion. In the final though, yeah he's not losing to either of them.

 

[Hitman]

Don't know what he thinks, but for me its RG22.

FAA played really well, Djok was in hot form having won Rome without dropping a set and reached the QF without losing a set either, Zed playing some of his best slam tennis of his life in humid conditions that really suited his game. Ruud was a pushover of course, but the path to the final was tough, only Nadal is getting through that draw.

OK, that brings me to another question. Going back to 2017, where do you rank RG 22 among the RG events from 17 onwards.

The reason why I say 2017 is, the resurgence of the big three all happened from 2017 onwards, so drawing the line there for this.

 

[Hitman]

Yeah, like I said, Thiem was pretty good before the final so if he was in that side of the draw, it'd be a tossup. Can't really say the same about Zed, he almost **** the bed against PCB but Zed does give Nadal trouble so not a foregone conclusion. In the final though, yeah he's not losing to either of them.

Thiem was solid and showed his best form against Medvedev in the semis, who was also playing very well. I remember saying that I was expecting a massive tussle between them, but Thiem was simply too good. You're probably right, Nadal would need to avoid Thiem before the final, he likely takes out Zverev on route to the final if he is on the other side.

 

[fedfan24]

Nadal favourite for 14, 20, 22 USO if healthy and top 3 favourite for 2012. Top 2 favourite for 16 RG, 23 RG if healthy. Joint favourite for 09 W if plays it.

Federer wins 2016 W/USO if he brings his 2015 level. Bad timing.

Djokovic wins 20 W and 22 AO if not for covid. top 2 favourite for 22 USO.

 

[weakera]

Obviously Nadal Roland Garros 2004, 2023 (and 2021 for that matter) as well as USO 12, 14, 20 and W 2009

 

[The_Order]

Nadal favourite for 14, 20, 22 USO if healthy and top 3 favourite for 2012. Top 2 favourite for 16 RG, 23 RG if healthy. Joint favourite for 09 W if plays it.

Federer wins 2016 W/USO if he brings his 2015 level. Bad timing.

Djokovic wins 20 W and 22 AO if not for covid. top 2 favourite for 22 USO.

Agree with most.

But no way is he behind Murray as a favorite for US12...

Slamless Murray who never made a US Open final before, a favorite ahead of a guy who made the last 2 finals including winning it in 2010 and taking out Murray comfortably the year prior? Can't see it. He's not losing to Djok in windy conditions either.

 

[fedfan24]

Agree with most.

But no way is he behind Murray as a favorite for US12...

Slamless Murray who never made a US Open final before, a favorite ahead of a guy who made the last 2 finals including winning it in 2010 and taking out Murray comfortably the year prior? Can't see it. He's not losing to Djok in windy conditions either.

sorry I was thinking pre tournament odds, joint favourite with fed and djokovic

As it actually happened, definitely beats Murray there in the final.

 

[The_Order]

sorry I was thinking pre tournament odds, joint favourite with fed and djokovic

As it actually happened, definitely beats Murray there in the final.

Fair enough. Yeah, Fed losing to Berdych was a surprise, so I just figured he's a non factor in this case.

 

[Hitman]

Agree with most.

But no way is he behind Murray as a favorite for US12...

Slamless Murray who never made a US Open final before, a favorite ahead of a guy who made the last 2 finals including winning it in 2010 and taking out Murray comfortably the year prior? Can't see it. He's not losing to Djok in windy conditions either.

Murray and Nadal would not play the semi. Nadal would be ranked three, and Murray would be ranked four. Murray would end up playing Djokovic in the semis. Nadal plays Berdych, who beat Federer.

 

[The_Order]

Murray and Nadal would not play the semi. Nadal would be ranked three, and Murray would be ranked four. Murray would end up playing Djokovic in the semis. Nadal plays Berdych, who beat Federer.

True. Either way, he's not losing to Berdych and he isn't losing to either Murray or Djok in those conditions especially.

 

[Hitman]

True. Either way, he's not losing to Berdych and he isn't losing to either Murray or Djok in those conditions especially.

The conditions in the semis if I remember correctly were the worst of all, Djokovic would struggle against Murray in that semi, considering Ferrer was causing him issues. Murray might get that win over Djokovic in the semis regardless.

 

[The_Order]

The conditions in the semis if I remember correctly were the worst of all, Djokovic would struggle against Murray in that semi, considering Ferrer was causing him issues. Murray might get that win over Djokovic in the semis regardless.

Quite possible. Either way, the conditions in the final would have heavily favored Nadal against either of them.

IW final in 2009 where it was quite windy and Nadal crushed Murray. Many were expecting a tight battle given Andy just beat Fed in the sf.

 

[Hitman]

Quite possible. Either way, the conditions in the final would have heavily favored Nadal against either of them.

IW final in 2009 where it was quite windy and Nadal crushed Murray. Many were expecting a tight battle given Andy just beat Fed in the sf.

I think Nadal wanted revenge badly on Murray after that Rotterdam bagel just a few weeks earlier. The court conditions at IW are some of the best for Nadal, who never played less than a semi from 2006 to 2013, and some of the worst for Murray, who only made one final there, which was the loss. The wind did play a part in it also, but Murray isn't a bad player in the wind, the guy grew up playing in Scotland, and it was windy every day for him.

What would tip the edge for Nadal IMO would be that he would be far more experienced, and given how Murray who at that point had zero slams, let Djokovic back into the match, you can tell how nervous he was.

 

[The_Order]

I think Nadal wanted revenge badly on Murray after that Rotterdam bagel just a few weeks earlier. The court conditions at IW are some of the best for Nadal, who never played less than a semi from 2006 to 2013, and some of the worst for Murray, who only made one final there, which was the loss. The wind did play a part in it also, but Murray isn't a bad player in the wind, the guy grew up playing in Scotland, and it was windy every day for him.

What would tip the edge for Nadal IMO would be that he would be far more experienced, and given how Murray who at that point had zero slams, let Djokovic back into the match, you can tell how nervous he was.

Wasn't trying to say Murray was bad in windy conditions. Just that they'd heavily favor Nadal. During that IW match, you could see how much it bothered Andy too. Nadal plays with so much margin for error. His topspin is hard enough to deal with in normal conditions. Nerves would be the added factor.

Djok otoh... doesn't fare so well in wind.

 

[StrongRule]

When was the last strong slam win by anyone and why? Because it appears you don't think there was a single strong slam for the last decade or even more.

Didn't we already have this discussion? Probably more than once, but one time I remember for sure.

 

[StrongRule]

Murray and Nadal would not play the semi. Nadal would be ranked three, and Murray would be ranked four. Murray would end up playing Djokovic in the semis. Nadal plays Berdych, who beat Federer.

We don't know that. The 3rd and 4th seeds can be at any half. (only have to be in different halves)

 

[JoshDragon]

I was watching some of Pete's run of summer 99 back recently.

For those that don't know, in 98, Pete was hellbent on breaking Connor's 5 straight year ending number ones, he pushed so hard to break that record, that he sacrificed playing at the AO 99 a few months later. He didn't really get going until we got back onto the grass, and that point, he caught fire.

Pete won four titles in a row, Queens, Wimbledon, LA and Cincinnati, which included him beating Agassi in both W and LA finals. He was without question the best player heading into the USO and the clear favorite to win it. He ends up injuring his back in Indianapolis, which put his USO campaign in doubt. When the USO started, Pete was given up until Wednesday to play his first round match, but when Wednesday came, he had to pull out. It was a title where he was the outright front runner, no one was playing as good as he was at the time, but fate had other plans. Agassi stepped in and picked up his second USO title by beating Todd Martin, in Martin's second and final grand slam appearance, his first being AO 94.

To me, this was one that will always stand out as a golden slam opportunity missed. Which other notable examples come to mind?

Pete made the finals there from 2000-02. If he had played the US Open in 1999, he would have had similar results.

 

[TheGoldenEra1990’s]

No doubt Pete would have won the US open in 99 if he played. He was playing at a high level from Wimbledon to the year end championship that year

 

[messiahrobins]

I was watching some of Pete's run of summer 99 back recently.

For those that don't know, in 98, Pete was hellbent on breaking Connor's 5 straight year ending number ones, he pushed so hard to break that record, that he sacrificed playing at the AO 99 a few months later. He didn't really get going until we got back onto the grass, and that point, he caught fire.

Pete won four titles in a row, Queens, Wimbledon, LA and Cincinnati, which included him beating Agassi in both W and LA finals. He was without question the best player heading into the USO and the clear favorite to win it. He ends up injuring his back in Indianapolis, which put his USO campaign in doubt. When the USO started, Pete was given up until Wednesday to play his first round match, but when Wednesday came, he had to pull out. It was a title where he was the outright front runner, no one was playing as good as he was at the time, but fate had other plans. Agassi stepped in and picked up his second USO title by beating Todd Martin, in Martin's second and final grand slam appearance, his first being AO 94.

To me, this was one that will always stand out as a golden slam opportunity missed. Which other notable examples come to mind?

Do you mean but for injury who would have won a slam? And do you mean if they got injured at a slam or only a slam they missed entirely?

 

[messiahrobins]

Pete made the finals there from 2000-02. If he had played the US Open in 1999, he would have had similar results.

But then had Phillipousis not got injured v Sampras at W99 (i was at the match) Phillipousis would have beat Sampras that day in the quarters.

 

[Terenigma]

Wim 09 Ned
USO 12 Ned
USO 20 Ned
AO 22 Djoker
USO 22 Djoker
RG 23 Ned

Wim 09 = Lol No.
USO 12 = No.
USO 20 = Lol absolutely no.
AO 22 = Yes.
USO 22 = Reluctant no
RG 23 = Reluctant Yes

 

[nolefam_2024]

Wim 09 = Lol No.
USO 12 = No.
USO 20 = Lol absolutely no.
AO 22 = Yes.
USO 22 = Reluctant no
RG 23 = Reluctant Yes

BOOM

 

[travlerajm]

I remember at the time reading that Kafelnikov thanked Pete for not playing in his victory speech after the ‘99 AO. Talk about truth bombs.

TENNIS; Kafelnikov Thanks His Lucky Stars, and Sampras (Published 1999)

Yevgeny Kafelnikov discusses his winning Australian Open men's singles tennis championship; photo (M)

www.nytimes.com

 

[jl809]

Wim 09 = Lol No.
USO 12 = No.
USO 20 = Lol absolutely no.
AO 22 = Yes.
USO 22 = Reluctant no
RG 23 = Reluctant Yes

Who do Djokodal lose to at each of these then lol? Federer at Wim 09, fair enough, and then what, Windovic? Alcaraz or Ruud?