The Race for Year-End #3

Discussion in 'Pro Match Results and Discussion' started by helterskelter, Oct 31, 2013.

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Who will finish the year as World #3?

Poll closed Nov 1, 2013.
  1. Andy Murray

    10.0%
  2. David Ferrer

    40.0%
  3. Juan Martin del Potro

    30.0%
  4. Tomas Berdych

    10.0%
  5. Roger Federer

    10.0%
  1. helterskelter

    helterskelter Professional

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    Djokovic still has a very slim chance of overhauling Nadal, but basically the year-end #1 and #2 spots are confirmed.

    So, now that the field for London is complete, the major thing remaining in rankings terms is the race for #3. There are five contenders: Murray, Ferrer, Del Potro, Berdych, and Federer. Federer will be eliminated from contention if he doesn't win Paris. Berdych needs to get to the final in Paris to have any chance.

    Realistically, then, it's a three-man race between Murray, Ferrer, and Del Potro. After wins for Ferrer and Del Potro today, the points total is:

    Murray - 5,790
    Ferrer - 5,380
    Del Potro - 5,055

    If Murray were competing, he'd have a sizable advantage. As things stand, he needs the two rivals to slip up.

    Who will finish the year as #3?
     
    #1
  2. jhhachamp

    jhhachamp Hall of Fame

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    Federer and Berdych have almost 0% chance. If Del Potro loses to Federer, I think he also won't catch Murray. I think Ferrer wins against Berdych and gets enough to squeak by Murray, but it should be very close between those 3.
     
    #2
  3. helterskelter

    helterskelter Professional

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    Right, if Del Potro loses against Federer, then he must get to the final in London to have a chance.

    If Ferrer loses against Berdych, then he needs three wins in London to get to #3.

    So, tomorrow should make the situation much clearer. If Ferrer and Del Potro both lose, then Murray should still finish #3.

    Federer has to win both Paris and London and he has to win London without losing a match, so his chances are indeed very slim. Berdych is in a slightly better position mathematically, but with his horrible record against the top players, it's also very unlikely that he could do it.
     
    #3
  4. norbac

    norbac Legend

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    Berdych for sure.
     
    #4
  5. helterskelter

    helterskelter Professional

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    It's now between Ferrer and Del Potro, with the ball firmly in Ferrer's court.

    By making the Paris final, Ferrer has overtaken Murray, so Andy's out. By losing in Paris, Berdych and Federer have also been eliminated.

    After Del Potro's win today, Ferrer is 545 points ahead of him, so even if Del Potro were to beat both Federer and Djokovic, and Ferrer to lose all three group stage matches, Ferrer would be 145 points ahead.

    But if Del Potro made the final, he'd be in with a chance. If Del Potro were runner-up, losing one group stage match, then he'd end up on 5,855 points, which means that Ferrer would need only one win to be year-end #3. If Del Potro made the final without losing a group stage match, Ferrer would need two group stage wins to clinch #3.

    And, of course, if Del Potro wins the tournament, then he has a good chance. If Del Potro wins the tournament undefeated, Ferrer needs to make the final to be #3. If Del Potro wins the tournament with one group stage loss, then Ferrer needs either to reach the final or to lose in the semis after winning all three group-stage matches.

    Still, in all probability Ferrer will be year-end #3.

    For Del Potro to overtake Murray for #4, he needs to make the final, and it won't matter whether he loses a group-stage match en route. That's actually a reasonably realistic possibility, as Del Potro could achieve it by beating Federer, losing to Djokovic, and then beating the Group A winner in the semis.
     
    #5
  6. helterskelter

    helterskelter Professional

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    Ferrer is out of contention for a semi-final spot in London. That means that, as things stand, if Del Potro makes the final, then he'll end the year #3 unless Ferrer beats Wawrinka. If Del Potro made the final unbeaten, he'd be #3 even if Ferrer beats Wawrinka.

    Mind you, to make the final Del Potro will probably have to beat Federer and Nadal. To make the final undefeated, he'll have to beat Federer, Djokovic, and either Wawrinka or Berdych.
     
    #6
  7. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

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    delete, sorry
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2013
    #7
  8. helterskelter

    helterskelter Professional

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    Eh?

    10 characters.
     
    #8
  9. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    Even if Delpo finishes second in his group, he might avoid Nadal. If Berdych beats Nadal and Ferrer beats Wawrinka, Berdych and Nadal would be tied at 2-1, and the H2H would put Berdych through as the number one of the group. Fat chance of that happening, but it's possible. Or Delpo could go home with two losses. We'll know more after tomorrow.
     
    #9
  10. robertharris

    robertharris Banned

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    #4 is almost more important than #3 since if Del Potro can atleast end the year #4 he can be seeded top 4 for the Aussie Open and Murray would drop to #5, if he even plays it.

    What does Del Potro have to do to atleast pass Ferrer.

    I really feel Del Potro has to win his poll to make the final. I dont see him beating Nadal if they play in the semis (and you know Nadal is winning the other pool). Nadal will be relaxed, and eager to try and win his first WTF, and atleast make the final and extend his points gap. So I think Del Potro has to win his pool and get probably Wawrinka in the semis.
     
    #10
  11. helterskelter

    helterskelter Professional

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    As far as the Australian Open is concerned, #4 is more important than #3. However, I think the year-end rankings are important in themselves, and that from that perspective, the difference between #3 and #4 is important, as is the difference between #4 and #5.

    To answer your question: it depends on whether Ferrer beats Wawrinka or not.

    If Ferrer beats Wawrinka, then Del Potro has to win his group undefeated and win his semi-final in order to pass Ferrer.

    If Ferrer loses to Wawrinka, then Del Potro has to make the final to pass Ferrer, but it would be okay if he lost one group match. (In practice, that probably means that he would beat Federer, lose to Djokovic, and then beat Nadal. That might be a tall order, but I think that beating Djokovic will be more difficult for him than beating Nadal. Not that either is easy).

    Also, the winner of group B might well play Berdych in the semis. I believe that Berdych will qualify for the semis unless Ferrer beats Wawrinka. Given Ferrer's form this week, Wawrinka will start favorite against him, but Ferrer will no doubt be determined not to go home totally empty-handed, and Wawrinka has been known to choke.

    I haven't seen either of Nadal's matches this week. The results seem impressive, but the reports suggest that he's not playing that well. Of course, nobody has really covered himself in glory yet this week.
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2013
    #11
  12. helterskelter

    helterskelter Professional

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    I hate the rule that head-to-head is decisive in case of a tie. It's the type of arbitrary favoring of some aspects of the results that I never like, similar to the away goals rule in European football/soccer. (Whoever scores more away goals has scored fewer home goals. Whoever did better in the head to head did less well in the other matches).

    It would be much better to make sets won and lost decisive in the event of a tie, just as they do when it's a three-way tie.
     
    #12
  13. robertharris

    robertharris Banned

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    What does Del Potro have to do to pass Murray though. Ferrer is above Murray in points already, so to atleast end the year in the top 4 (which is what I am interested in due to the Australian Open seedings) what does Del Potro need to do. You already detailed what he has to do in order to pass Ferrer.

    I want to check the Race points to calculate it myself but my computer keeps freezing due to that stupid heavy java ATP WTF thing that the ATP site keeps directing too.
     
    #13
  14. helterskelter

    helterskelter Professional

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    Ferrer has something like 10 points more than Murray, so what Del Potro has to do to pass Murray is basically the same as what he has to do to pass Ferrer assuming that Ferrer loses to Wawrinka.

    In other words, make the final. (He can afford to lose a group match en route).

    (I'd say Murray is no more than 50-50 to play the Australian Open anyway, for what it's worth).

    (Ferrer got 90 points in Doha in the first week of the season, but that's a non-countable tournament, so he'll be guaranteed a top 4 slot the week before the Australian Open. But it could be one of those weird situations in which the #4 seed is ranked 5 and the #5 seed is ranked 4. That happened with Soderling and Murray in 2010 or 2011. Ferrer is defending 250 points in Auckland the week before the Australian Open, so he could slip behind Murray by the time the tournament starts).
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2013
    #14
  15. robertharris

    robertharris Banned

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    OK thanks. Will be interesting to see what happens. I have a feeling if he loses to Djokovic though, he will also lose to Nadal in the semis, and thus not make the final (if he even gets past RR in that case).

    I would predict Murray to miss the Australian Open anyway.
     
    #15
  16. helterskelter

    helterskelter Professional

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    Del Potro's remaining matches, if he gets to the latter two, are likely to be Djokovic, Federer, Nadal, Djokovic again, so he certainly has his work cut out for him. As we saw in the last two weeks, even Federer isn't a gimme for him.

    I think he could beat Nadal indoors, but he'll certainly need to regain his focus for that to happen.

    Too bad if Murray never wins the Australian Open, after his three finals there. Then again, Djokovic has lost four Cincy finals, and if my memory serves me, he hasn't won a single set in any one of those four matches.
     
    #16
  17. robertharris

    robertharris Banned

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    I dont think Djokovic can continue to win the Australian Open every year. It is not like Nadal at Roland Garros. I have a feeling in the next 3 years we will probably see Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray each win once there, so Murray should get a title there.
     
    #17
  18. helterskelter

    helterskelter Professional

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    He certainly still has a good chance. (Your prediction is probably the most likely single possible outcome, but the odds are still heavily against it panning out just like that. Predicting the next three winners of a Slam is an extremely unreliable affair, unless there's a dominant player at that Slam).
     
    #18
  19. helterskelter

    helterskelter Professional

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    Ferrer has now lost all three group-stage matches. That leaves Del Potro in with a chance of overhauling him for the #3 position.

    All Del Potro needs to do to claim that spot is to beat Federer tomorrow and then beat either Nadal or Berdych on Sunday.

    Simple, eh? Beat Federer and Nadal and you can be the #3!

    He also needs to win both those matches to overtake Murray. The year-end rankings will either be: 3. Ferrer, 4. Murray, 5. Del Potro (in this scenario, Berdych and Federer still have outside chances of overtaking Del Potro), or 3. Del Potro, 4. Ferrer, 5. Murray.
     
    #19
  20. Def

    Def Semi-Pro

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    Right now, Delpo can go as low as 5 and as high as 3, but not 4. Federer can go as high as 6 if he beats Delpo, but cannot go any higher, even if her wins the whole thing.
     
    #20
  21. Tennis sensation

    Tennis sensation Hall of Fame

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    If I am right, Ferrer is the YE #3
     
    #21
  22. helterskelter

    helterskelter Professional

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    Yes, only Berdych had a chance of overtaking Del Potro. I miscalculated on Federer. What I said about Del Potro was the same as you.

    Federer is #6 right now, but I believe that Berdych will overtake him if he beats Tipsarevic (or Djokovic) in the Davis Cup final.
     
    #22
  23. helterskelter

    helterskelter Professional

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    You are right. The year-end rankings are:

    1. Nadal
    2. Djokovic
    3. Ferrer
    4. Murray
    5. Del Potro
    6. Federer or Berdych (depending on the Davis Cup final)
    7. Federer or Berdych
    8. Wawrinka
    9. Gasquet
    10.Tsonga
     
    #23

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