The Truth about Nadal - Version 2

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by Nathaniel_Near, Jun 14, 2013.

  1. Nathaniel_Near

    Nathaniel_Near Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    20,051
    Location:
    Relax folks, ...
    The original thread was closed, I can't be bothered to read through it to understand why. All I remember is not many people entertained this idea. But now Nadal has won RG, what if he wins Wimbledon?

    We can all judge things in hindsight, that's easy, but what about making a huge call before the fact has actually occurred. One may end up looking the fool or one may end up looking the visionary. Is it really so ridiculous to imagine the following could happen:


    Nadal is about to embark on a very special year it would seem and has good chances of winning multiple majors this year. We all know how good he is on clay and on grass he is also formidable, having made the finals already 5 times in his career.

    This might seem slightly premature as he hasn't got the job done yet, but it's becoming increasingly more and more conceivable that Nadal could end his career with a greater reputation in the public eye than Federer, and hold several more very important records, such as a bigger majors count and consistency and longevity in winning majors every year, and the like.

    Given that Roger Federer is already considered by many to be the greatest and best tennis player of all time, imagine the accolades Nadal would receive if it was felt by the majority that he himself surpassed Federer in the same era. The achievement would be almost unbelievable -- imagine Michael Jordan being challenged while he was winning his rings by somebody conceivably even better than he was, taking some titles away from him and then ending his career with equal or better esteem in the public eye than MJ, and making Kobe Bryant look like an insignificant footnote. In fact, has this sort of scenario ever happened before in any sport? We could point to Hendry over Davis in snooker, and arguably Jansher over Jehangir in squash, but it's rare.

    In a sport as globally popular and prestigious as tennis, with the huge media furore that Federer has received over the years and all the lavish praise that has been heaped onto him, for somebody to come along just shortly after and achieve in many ways even more than Federer, wouldn't just give them a right to be widely considered as the greatest player of all time, but arguably the greatest sportsman of all time.

    __________________


    Behave yourselves please, having threads get locked is annoying. :neutral:
     
    #1
  2. dudeski

    dudeski Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Messages:
    4,256
    It's very likely Nadal won't win another title until April.
     
    #2
  3. RafaIsBack

    RafaIsBack Professional

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2013
    Messages:
    856
    Location:
    Paris, France
    Rafa is on a great winning streak and has gained a lot of confidence.
    I think he has a good chance to win Wimbledon and why not the US Open ;)
     
    #3
  4. 1477aces

    1477aces Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Feb 9, 2011
    Messages:
    1,597
    This Wimbledon will be very telling
     
    #4
  5. Russeljones

    Russeljones G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2011
    Messages:
    13,054
    lol @ Nadal surpassing Federer
     
    #5
  6. Warmaster

    Warmaster Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2012
    Messages:
    3,806
    They're two giants of the game, one amazing on hardcourt and grass, the other ridiculously good on clay and they are both good enough to win on their worst surfaces.

    In the past 10 years, we've had the luxury of watching 2 of the greatest players of all time. Let's stop comparing them all the time and just enjoy what they have given us: spectacular tennis!
     
    #6
  7. Nathaniel_Near

    Nathaniel_Near Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    20,051
    Location:
    Relax folks, ...
    I'd prefer to do both, enjoy the spectacular tennis and continue to compare and discuss as I find it fascinating. Comparisons, tactics, strategy, legacy, just the pure tennis, it's all a joy for me. Good times.
     
    #7
  8. dannysul

    dannysul Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2012
    Messages:
    109
    Location:
    North Bergen NJ USA
    Rafa has been playing great but i'm not sure how this transition to grass is going to turn out. I would be absolutely floored if he took home the trophy.

    Regarding their legacies... Imagine them winding up with the same number of slams? It would be WW3 on here.
     
    #8
  9. Warmaster

    Warmaster Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2012
    Messages:
    3,806
    I do too, but I'd rather discuss their careers when they're both retired. People are more rational then.
     
    #9
  10. Nathaniel_Near

    Nathaniel_Near Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    20,051
    Location:
    Relax folks, ...
    But without all this irrationality, would you really be having as much fun (he says with mischievous eyes)?
     
    #10
  11. topher

    topher Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2013
    Messages:
    581
    I give you credit for going out there on this prediction, as you'll only get trolled as soon as Rafa loses a single match for this and get absolutely no credit if he somehow pulls it off. That said, as others have said in this thread - this is pretty much a wild speculation until we see Rafa at Wimby. His comeback is still in progress and anything could happen.

    Didn't Michael Jordan himself do something vaguely similar while eclipsing Magic Johnson and Larry Bird? Granted, he took a little longer to develop his game than Rafa, but that's a huge reason why he's considered the undisputed GOAT of his sport. Beating candidate GOATs is a great way to make your claim, as you said. And Rafa, were he to do it, would be making an unprecedented accomplishment to my sports knowledge. Like if MJ had been beating Bird and Magic since he was a teenager.
     
    #11
  12. grandmaster

    grandmaster Rookie

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2013
    Messages:
    196
    nadal doesn't have a hope in hell of winning the US or australian these days, and he'll probably lose to djok next year at the french.
     
    #12
  13. Nathaniel_Near

    Nathaniel_Near Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    20,051
    Location:
    Relax folks, ...
    Sort of, but Magic and Larry are no Federer, with all due respect.


    I don't see the problem in making some outlandish statements. One might look like a muppet or a visionary and it really doesn't matter -- people care way too much about that stuff and don't want to be the one to look foolish and will only continue to rely on hindsight to take a dump on others ;) . Everybody often judges things in hindsight which is the easy thing to do. Let's try to make some calls ahead of time.

    Here are some more.

    Nadal has 50% chance to be considered greater than Fed before retirement (this thead already basically covers this)

    Murray's window is closing fast and his body will break down over the next couple of years and he won't win more than 3 Majors.

    Federer has won his last Major.

    Djokovic will never win Roland Garros.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2013
    #13
  14. topher

    topher Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2013
    Messages:
    581
    I completely agree.



    :lol: Those are some outlandish picks, I like it! I don't know which are less likely (either 3 or 4, I'll go with 4), but I guess if Rafa somehow starts going into all-court tennis god mode to accomplish #1 then that will make the other 3 much more likely. I'm not sure I can add to that though...

    Murray's will win Wimbledon 2014 and prematurely retire...then change his mind before the US Open.

    Del Potro will be re-break the big 4 slam streak at the US Open 2014.

    Djokovic completes his career grand slam, but only after Rafa retires in 2018.
     
    #14
  15. bullfan

    bullfan Legend

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2011
    Messages:
    7,816
    Quite frankly, I am hoping for a good tournament not marred by rain.
     
    #15
  16. Nathaniel_Near

    Nathaniel_Near Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    20,051
    Location:
    Relax folks, ...
    Bold calls, especially the third one as that's such a way into the future and would involve Djokovic winning RG aged 31.
     
    #16
  17. Steve0904

    Steve0904 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2012
    Messages:
    11,193
    Location:
    NL, Canada
    It is not inconceivable that any of what you said could happen. Problem is, he's not the favourite anymore like he is at RG. He may be the favourite for Wimbledon I guess, but he hasn't won a non clay slam since 2010. I know you don't think so, but I believe Djokovic will come back strong at Wimbledon, and he's much better on HC's than he was in 2010 as is Murray. Federer is also not to be totally discounted on HC's or grass.

    Nadal has also only played 1 tournament off clay (which he won, all credit to him), but the sample size is too small to say anything definitive IMO. Everything else has been pretty much expected. To be brutally honest, it's just as likely that Nadal doesn't win another title until MC next year, whether he plays a full schedule until then or gets injured again.
     
    #17
  18. Nathaniel_Near

    Nathaniel_Near Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    20,051
    Location:
    Relax folks, ...
    I only think Djokovic won't truly relish such a quick return match against Nadal. I think his chances against Murray and Federer will be good but I would have him as a slight underdog. Yes, I do think it's the wrong time for Nole to meet Rafa again but I could be completely wrong, I've been wrong approximately 28438750304 times before.
     
    #18
  19. jg153040

    jg153040 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    May 15, 2013
    Messages:
    11,869
    Nice writing. You have a way with words.

    Can he surpass even Laver? Let's say he wins CYGS. What then?
     
    #19
  20. chandu612

    chandu612 Guest

    All of them are quite possible. But remember Tennis is very fickle. Always the unthinkable happens. For some reason, I think we will see all stars performing more consistently in all 4 majors in the future. Also the peak age of the players is either shifted to 24-29 or just got bigger 22-29 as opposed to 21-26 as it used to be. So all the of the big four hardly have couple more years of peakness.

    Nadal: If his knees break again in the next 3 months, it will be the final nail for his GOAT chances. He will then be smart enough to make sure he is fit for every clay season and grab 2 or 3 more FO's giving an odd title to Djoker. Ending up with 14-15.But if Nadal manages to win one of the the next wimb, us or au open, more so one of the last two, that means he is back. That means he knows how to manage his knees better and also that he changed his style of play a little to be more aggressive and complete the points faster and also means he got the mental edge on djoker. He will end up with 17 or more. So the next 3 slams will decide his fate.

    Djoker: Like I said hardly has 2 or 3 years max left. If Nadal ends up going south, he will have couple FO's and end up with 12 overall. If Nadal reigns, Djoker will end up with 9 or 10 slams with 1 FO coming in 2016 or 2017.

    Murray: Either he is done with titles already or max 4 before a young star rises.

    Federer: Done with titles. 17.
     
    #20
  21. Magnus

    Magnus Legend

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2011
    Messages:
    5,172
    In order to be considered better, Nadal must improve his rather weak non-clay slam count (only 4, compared to Fed's 16 and Nole's 6)

    Also, as good as Nadal ends up, he will never have a reputation as good as Fed's simply due to his on court behavior and tricks :)
     
    #21
  22. Roddick85

    Roddick85 Professional

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    1,223
    Location:
    Montreal
    As great as Nadal is on clay, I don't see him beating Djokovic at the Australian Open/US Open. I do see him beating Djokovic at Wimbledon again, grass is Djoko's worst surface.
    He also needs to add more slams in non-clay event if he wants to be up there with Federer. In my eyes, Nadal is still what I consider a "clay specialist" if such a thing still exist with the homogenization of all surfaces. He also needs to add more weeks at #1, lots of people seem to forget that if you compare Roger's # of weeks at #1 vs Nadal, there's still a huge difference. Being #1 for so long shows that you dominated your sport, that you constantly won. If you remove the french open and the clay court season, Rafa's tournament victory count ain't that high.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2013
    #22
  23. wy2sl0

    wy2sl0 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2010
    Messages:
    1,573
    Amen, wow.
     
    #23
  24. chandu612

    chandu612 Guest

    Remove hard-courts, Nadal has 10 and Federer has 8. Your point is?
     
    #24
  25. chandu612

    chandu612 Guest

    You are just another fan like billion others including me. Thats the worth of your opinion.

    http://www.oregonlive.com/the-spin-of-the-ball/index.ssf/2013/06/rafael_nadal_revives_greatest-.html
     
    #25
  26. Incognito

    Incognito Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 30, 2013
    Messages:
    2,018
    Nadal has now, 2 majors on hard, 2 majors on grass and at least 2 majors on clay. How many players in the open era has that?
     
    #26
  27. The_Order

    The_Order Legend

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2012
    Messages:
    7,133
    Versatilerer can't...
     
    #27
  28. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2010
    Messages:
    14,997
    Please, Federer has 9 hc slams and 7 grass slams--he dominated three out of the four slams during his prime. Wake me up when Nadal does that. Nadal is doing great right now but he needs to win some more non-clay slams, enough with the clay already. We know he is clay GOAT, he has nothing left to prove on clay.
     
    #28
  29. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2009
    Messages:
    21,379
    Just about everyone agree. Nadal won 35 of his 57 titles on clay, and clay season only last 2 months in a year. Any player would love to have his career, but to be in the same sentence with the all time great like Federer, he needs to win outside of clay. He also won only 1 title on indoor, and never won the WTF. Unless Nadal wants to be consider as a clay God, then go ahead and keep winning on clay.
     
    #29
  30. chandu612

    chandu612 Guest

    GOAT articles by experts hardly mention WTF. I am saying you bring it up all the time coz you somehow have to higlight whatever Fed has already.
    Here is I am saying, Unless Fed has more than 1 FO and better h2h, he cant be GOAT.
     
    #30
  31. ruerooo

    ruerooo Legend

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2008
    Messages:
    6,579
    Location:
    Right behind you
    Everybody listen to Warmaster.

    Thank goodness somebody has the right idea.
     
    #31
  32. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2009
    Messages:
    21,379
    Nonsense. Experts/historians take WTF into account and no one care about H2H.


    PLAYER CRITERIA

    * Number of Major Titles won
    * Overall performance at Grand Slam Events
    * Player Ranking
    * Performance at ATP/WTA events
    * Performance at Davis & Fed Cup events
    * Records held or broken
    * Intangibles(contribution to tennis)
     
    #32
  33. Day Tripper

    Day Tripper Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2012
    Messages:
    472
    Nadal has a fair chance of going down in history as a tier 1 player along with Federer, Laver and Sampras. He woud need to win at least 2-3 more wimbledon titles and a couple more US opens for that to happen as well as increase his number of weeks at number one. It really depends on whether he can remain injury free and avoid getting done for doping.
     
    #33
  34. octogon

    octogon Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2010
    Messages:
    749
    Have to agree that only time talk about WTF being some sort of GOAT signifier is from Fed fans on sites like this. It's pretty much never mentioned in articles or by "experts". For a very long time, it's been treated like a highly paid exhibition event.

    H2H with main rivals is ALWAYS mentioned. They always talk about Borg's H2H with McEnroe, or Sampras H2H with Aggasi. Nadal's H2H with both Federer and Djokovic are becoming hugely important stats when experts consider his GOAT claims.

    I know it sucks that these fickle experts are suddenly taking away the GOAT status they teased Federer with, but you sort of come across as if you are in denial of reality.
     
    #34
  35. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2009
    Messages:
    21,379
    Sorry but it's you who can't accept the truth. Those criteria I've posted are not coming from me but the entire expert team from The Tennis Channel.

    The consensus of the people has
    1)Roger
    2)Laver

    For the women, it's
    1)Graf
    2)Martina
     
    #35
  36. Cesc Fabregas

    Cesc Fabregas Legend

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2009
    Messages:
    8,318
    Oh that makes it gospel then. :roll:
     
    #36
  37. octogon

    octogon Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2010
    Messages:
    749
    :lol:

    The Tennis Channel are now suddenly the final arbiters of GOAT?

    Well knock me down with a feather. We can all stop the GOAT debate now, 'cause The Tennis Channel said so.

    Don't be ridiculous. It's just one group. There are dozens of so-called "experts" who have nothing to do with The Tennis Channel that have a different criteria.
     
    #37
  38. jg153040

    jg153040 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    May 15, 2013
    Messages:
    11,869
    Is Sampras tier 1 yet? Toni said he puts Agassi and Sampras at tier 2.
     
    #38
  39. jg153040

    jg153040 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    May 15, 2013
    Messages:
    11,869
    I know not all people have the same criteria. It's about majority consensus who put Laver and Fed on top. Majority still doesn't mean all. Even if minority is about 10% or 20% or whatever, that is still a lot of people.

    So, I don't see any problems here.
     
    #39
  40. beast of mallorca

    beast of mallorca Legend

    Joined:
    May 19, 2010
    Messages:
    7,975
    cAN'T WAIT............:twisted:
     
    #40
  41. octogon

    octogon Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2010
    Messages:
    749
    Federer has the grand slam record and Laver has the calender year grand slam (holy grail of tennis). These are talking points that now get repeatedly brought up, and gives them an edge in the current conversation, but the conversation is fluid and constantly changing. In fact, I'd say Laver's reputation diminished slightly for many years in the GOAT debate, as many younger players (like Borg) came to prominence. I think when the likes of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic all had the opportunity to go for the calender year grand slam, it made Laver's stock rise again in the GOAT debate, because his name would constantly be brought up as the only one to do it.

    When Sampras still had the grand slam record, in 2005, the "experts" at Tennis Magazine declared him the greatest player of all time . Laver was "only" at no. 8, behind several female greats and Jimmy Conners and Bjorn Borg. So it's very telling how much Laver's stock has risen again since 2005.

    Maybe Nadal's feat of 8 titles at a single slam will be seen as a new legendary, iconic benchmark to rival Laver's calender year grand slam and push him in front in future GOAT debates. It's hard to tell, because these things are constantly changing and evolving.
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2013
    #41
  42. jg153040

    jg153040 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    May 15, 2013
    Messages:
    11,869
    True. Things change, and we have to put numbers in context of the era. It's not as simple to compare CYGS vs no CYGS. Or 17 majors vs 11.

    Al current best players are hyped. Now, it's Djokovic, Nadal. In 2012 it was Fed, and so on...

    It will be interesting to see how things will go when things settle a bit. Fedal are still not finished.
     
    #42
  43. Day Tripper

    Day Tripper Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2012
    Messages:
    472
    anyone who wins 7 wimbledons and 5 us opens is tier 1 in my book not to mention the 280 odd weeks he spent at number one.
     
    #43
  44. jg153040

    jg153040 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    May 15, 2013
    Messages:
    11,869
    But he only did it once. He didn't do it again to prove they were not flukes.
     
    #44
  45. Nathaniel_Near

    Nathaniel_Near Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    20,051
    Location:
    Relax folks, ...
    Just imagine for a moment, if you would, that Nadal defeats Federer, Murray and then Djokovic to win his third Wimbledon title and 13th Major. It would be arguably the most impressive path to a Major ever and the premise of this thread will look increasingly less and less silly.
     
    #45
  46. TheTruth

    TheTruth G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2006
    Messages:
    13,671
    Great post.
     
    #46
  47. TheTruth

    TheTruth G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2006
    Messages:
    13,671
    Yes. That is common sense. Sampras is tier 1.
     
    #47
  48. TheTruth

    TheTruth G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2006
    Messages:
    13,671
    I don't understand how Sampras's accomplishments cannot be Tier 1. Regardless of what any one person says.

    All of the greats have done something that the others haven't done, so to pick and choose what you think is superior only leads to a false conclusion.

    I hear many people say, "Well, Pete didn't win the French, but then again, Pete dominated his main rival and was number 1 for six consecutive years. How can these things be weighted, except subjectively?
     
    #48
  49. chandu612

    chandu612 Guest

    You just answered your own question. If I am a Federer fan, I cant recognize Sampras as tier 1 citing he dominated his rival. Can I?
     
    #49
  50. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2012
    Messages:
    12,533
    Location:
    Australia
    I think Nadal's gunning for #1, so he could continue this form throughout the rest of the year.
     
    #50

Share This Page