USTA update on NTRP ratings, some stats included

[schmke]

The USTA sent out a February newsletter I received today and it had a link to an update on NTRP ratings. See http://www.usta.com/Adult-Tennis/USTA-League/your_ntrp_rating_what_does_it_mean/

Given some of the interesting stats I've blogged about, I found some of what they shared similarly interesting.

Over 240,000 players were issued ratings, nearly 84% stayed at the same level. Of the 16% that moved, 10% went up, 6% went down.

Self-rated players had 60% stay at their self-rate level, 18% went up, 22% went down.

The self-rated stat is interesting with more being bumped down than up. 18% going up is still a large number mind you so there is certainly still a lot of self-raters that under-rate or improve as they play and get bumped up.

 

[J_R_B]

I like the thinly veiled dig at TLS at the end. They must be sick of getting questions about them.

 

[kevrol]

The USTA sent out a February newsletter I received today and it had a link to an update on NTRP ratings. See http://www.usta.com/Adult-Tennis/USTA-League/your_ntrp_rating_what_does_it_mean/

Given some of the interesting stats I've blogged about, I found some of what they shared similarly interesting.

Over 240,000 players were issued ratings, nearly 84% stayed at the same level. Of the 16% that moved, 10% went up, 6% went down.

Self-rated players had 60% stay at their self-rate level, 18% went up, 22% went down.

The self-rated stat is interesting with more being bumped down than up. 18% going up is still a large number mind you so there is certainly still a lot of self-raters that under-rate or improve as they play and get bumped up.

I think that's probably the reason for most of the bumps. Anyone that self rates at a 2 or 2.5 is going to pretty much get bumped automatically assuming they played in a league, even if they don't have a ton of success. I'd be bet folks who are new to the game are responsible for 3/4 of that 18%.

 

[schmke]

I like the thinly veiled dig at TLS at the end. They must be sick of getting questions about them.

Yep. And I choose to interpret them using their tagline in the dig as a dig specifically against their accuracy and not mine

 

[Mongolmike]

I like the thinly veiled dig at TLS at the end. They must be sick of getting questions about them.

I think they are targeting Schmke. He is in their sights.

 

[schmke]

I think that's probably the reason for most of the bumps. Anyone that self rates at a 2 or 2.5 is going to pretty much get bumped automatically assuming they played in a league, even if they don't have a ton of success. I'd be bet folks who are new to the game are responsible for 3/4 of that 18%.

Excellent point. I stopped short of saying that more self-rates being bumped down than up is an indication that there isn't rampant sand bagging going on, but your point would seem to support that notion too. Certainly there are some that deliberately underrate for the purpose of going to Nationals, but that majority of self-rates that get bumped up are those 2.5s/3.0s that naturally improve and we see there are a lot more than I thought that overrate and get bumped down.

 

[J_R_B]

Excellent point. I stopped short of saying that more self-rates being bumped down than up is an indication that there isn't rampant sand bagging going on, but your point would seem to support that notion too. Certainly there are some that deliberately underrate for the purpose of going to Nationals, but that majority of self-rates that get bumped up are those 2.5s/3.0s that naturally improve and we see there are a lot more than I thought that overrate and get bumped down.

There definitely isn't rampant sandbagging going on. 99%+ of people in the leagues just want to play fairly and have fun and then hopefully win, too, and if you look for patterns of sandbagging in aggregate statistics, it's going to be buried in the noise. The thing about this sort of targetted cheating is that it doesn't have to be "rampant" to negatively affect a lot of honest people. Just a key player or two can tilt the balance of power in a whole area or section.

 

[mikeler]

I think they are targeting Schmke. He is in their sights.

My sources say the NSA is collaborating with them to bring down Schmke before he discovers the algorithm. It is a race against time. I see this becoming a best seller story based on true events.

 

[beernutz]

My sources say the NSA is collaborating with them to bring down Schmke before he discovers the algorithm. It is a race against time. I see this becoming a best seller story based on true events.

I can't wait for the movie. Kevin will be played by Nick Cage, Victor Wong (the guy with the eye) as LeeD, Cindy will be portrayed by Whoopi Goldberg, and Pauly Shore as Fedace. Maybe Michael Ironside as the evil NSA manhunter.

 

[mikeler]

I can't wait for the movie. Kevin will be played by Nick Cage, Victor Wong (the guy with the eye) as LeeD, Cindy will be portrayed by Whoopi Goldberg, and Pauly Shore as Fedace. Maybe Michael Ironside as the evil NSA manhunter.

Pauly Shore and Michael Ironside are shoe-ins. We can negotiate on the others.

 

[esgee48]

Cindy should be portrayed by Halle Berry. And since this is a comedy, let's try to get Woody Allen as Head of the NSA. :twisted:

 

[mikeler]

Cindy should be portrayed by Halle Berry. And since this is a comedy, let's try to get Woody Allen as Head of the NSA. :twisted:

I approve of this casting decision. LeeD is going to be the toughest role to fill.

 

[Mongolmike]

I approve of this casting decision. LeeD is going to be the toughest role to fill.

R. Lee Ermey

https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/...OshwLKCnwyp4As6XS_zCcAzia1RPNbjhDNeu_hg8WGlkQ

 

[RogueFLIP]

There is a video supposedly of LeeD serving on here and when I first saw it, I immediately thought of poker player Scotty Nguyen.

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=scotty+nguyen+images

 

[wrxinsc]

There is a video supposedly of LeeD serving on here and when I first saw it, I immediately thought of poker player Scotty Nguyen.

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=scotty+nguyen+images

I haven't seen the video so can't comment on the likeness. But there is no way Scotty Nguyen has the range necessary to pull off the nuanced nature of LeeD.

 

[mikeler]

R. Lee Ermey

https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/...OshwLKCnwyp4As6XS_zCcAzia1RPNbjhDNeu_hg8WGlkQ

Funny but not approved.

There is a video supposedly of LeeD serving on here and when I first saw it, I immediately thought of poker player Scotty Nguyen.

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=scotty+nguyen+images

Definitely a contender.

 

[3fees]

Self rated is easy to understand why more go down than up,,Nostalgia


Cheers
3Fees

 

[Mongolmike]

I approve of this casting decision. LeeD is going to be the toughest role to fill.

Ok... how about Danny DeVito? He looks Asian....

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/21/Danny_DeVito_by_Gage_Skidmore.jpg

 

[mikeler]

Ok... how about Danny DeVito? He looks Asian....

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/21/Danny_DeVito_by_Gage_Skidmore.jpg

Too chubby.

 

[dizzlmcwizzl]

Too chubby.

I agree ... really we should be thinking much bigger. Deniro or Pacino immediately spring to mind ....

these guys have the range we need and I think they could both pull off an aging Chinese american with a rough and tumble history on the waves and on the dirt biking tract we need.

 

[sam_p]

Let's go Hong Kong action with this puppy, Chow Yun Fat for LeeD

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chow_Yun-fat

 

[Mongolmike]

I think they could both pull off an aging Chinese american with a rough and tumble history on the waves and on the dirt biking tract we need.

What about her... (sorry, I'm at work and can't post the pics)

http://www.bilerico.com/2008/11/2007-11-05Rosie.jpg

 

[heninfan99]

A few years ago the USTA made a significant tweak to their algorithm and fixed many of the issues. Also they added/enforced a rule that anyone that ever played college, even Div. 3, is automatically rated a 4.0. I think the USTA have been doing a good job the last four/five years --I know because captains with sandbaggers complained like hell when the changes were made.
Sandbagging still happens but nowadays you have to put in quite an acting job in matches to get away with it for years. Still they protest their bump-ups which is lame.

 

[dizzlmcwizzl]

What about her... (sorry, I'm at work and can't post the pics)

http://www.bilerico.com/2008/11/2007-11-05Rosie.jpg

She definitely has the acting chops ... not sure she could pull off world class athlete though ...

 

[beernutz]

Too chubby.

And too tall.

 

[Mongolmike]

And too tall.

Him?

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/...24DrQQhRr70z8ZBL_L8hksNssmUggKImoz8jQys69VLz7

 

[Nostradamus]

The USTA sent out a February newsletter I received today and it had a link to an update on NTRP ratings. See http://www.usta.com/Adult-Tennis/USTA-League/your_ntrp_rating_what_does_it_mean/

Given some of the interesting stats I've blogged about, I found some of what they shared similarly interesting.

Over 240,000 players were issued ratings, nearly 84% stayed at the same level. Of the 16% that moved, 10% went up, 6% went down.

Self-rated players had 60% stay at their self-rate level, 18% went up, 22% went down.

The self-rated stat is interesting with more being bumped down than up. 18% going up is still a large number mind you so there is certainly still a lot of self-raters that under-rate or improve as they play and get bumped up.

why does USTA rating computer suck so much at bumping up the right people ??
I have a Self rated player to 4.0 on the other team. ONLY problem is he is really 5.0 and he has a friend that did the same thing. and now they play on the same team. they are killing #1 doubles teams at 4.0 level. and also winning at 4.5 level at #2 positions. They played 5 times, 3 times in 4.0 division, mostly easy wins and 2 more wins at 4.5 division.

And they are Still 4.0...........................WOW

 

[schmke]

why does USTA rating computer suck so much at bumping up the right people ??
I have a Self rated player to 4.0 on the other team. ONLY problem is he is really 5.0 and he has a friend that did the same thing. and now they play on the same team. they are killing #1 doubles teams at 4.0 level. and also winning at 4.5 level at #2 positions. They played 5 times, 3 times in 4.0 division, mostly easy wins and 2 more wins at 4.5 division.

And they are Still 4.0...........................WOW

Link to their results on TennisLink? Without specifics on scores and who they played, can't really say if there is an injustice here or not.

 

[mikeler]

Link to their results on TennisLink? Without specifics on scores and who they played, can't really say if there is an injustice here or not.

Dude, you better be posting through proxy servers. You realize that you are Enemy #1 of the USTA!

Being a math geek myself, I really enjoy following your quest to uncover the model. I think you are close, probably some fudge factor is missing.

 

[Mongolmike]

Dude, you better be posting through proxy servers. You realize that you are Enemy #1 of the USTA!

Being a math geek myself, I really enjoy following your quest to uncover the model. I think you are close, probably some fudge factor is missing.

And when he discovers "the fudge factor", he will disappear... never to be seen again except briefly on a milk carton. Don't think it can't happen....

 

[schmke]

And when he discovers "the fudge factor", he will disappear... never to be seen again except briefly on a milk carton. Don't think it can't happen....

I hear helicopters outside, they are black and they are landing in my yard, they have guns, they are coming to my door, ack!

 

[Maui19]

I hear helicopters outside, they are black and they are landing in my yard, they have guns, they are coming to my door, ack!

When the helicopters come, you won't be able to hear them.

 

[Joeyg]

Link to their results on TennisLink? Without specifics on scores and who they played, can't really say if there is an injustice here or not.

This will never happen. Fed...Err, Nostradamus, likes the anonymity of the internet. Otherwise, people will come to find out that he is really millionaire playboy, Bruce Wayne.

 

[tennisjon]

A few years ago the USTA made a significant tweak to their algorithm and fixed many of the issues. Also they added/enforced a rule that anyone that ever played college, even Div. 3, is automatically rated a 4.0. I think the USTA have been doing a good job the last four/five years --I know because captains with sandbaggers complained like hell when the changes were made.
Sandbagging still happens but nowadays you have to put in quite an acting job in matches to get away with it for years. Still they protest their bump-ups which is lame.

Now the USTA is making D3 players 5.0s unless they appeal. We had to appeal one of our players down to 4.0. There was some grumbling about it, but after a year, he is now computer 4.0. Thats really where he belonged. He is a high 4.0, but has a mixed record both at 4.0 and 4.5. Another player we tried to get on our mixed team got rated 5.5 because he played D1. This player played 4th singles at best for a low level D1 team. He isn't even 5.0 level, but I understand him having to be a 5.0 until he gets a computer rating. For him to get 5.5 is just crazy. The USTA knows that 5.5 is a death sentence for league play. Why would they do that to a person with little junior ranking and a low level D1 player? Meanwhile they allowed a current D1 player from a similar college, but who plays 1st singles to appeal to 4.5 and pretty much beat up on the competition.

 

[J_R_B]

Now the USTA is making D3 players 5.0s unless they appeal. We had to appeal one of our players down to 4.0. There was some grumbling about it, but after a year, he is now computer 4.0. Thats really where he belonged. He is a high 4.0, but has a mixed record both at 4.0 and 4.5. Another player we tried to get on our mixed team got rated 5.5 because he played D1. This player played 4th singles at best for a low level D1 team. He isn't even 5.0 level, but I understand him having to be a 5.0 until he gets a computer rating. For him to get 5.5 is just crazy. The USTA knows that 5.5 is a death sentence for league play. Why would they do that to a person with little junior ranking and a low level D1 player? Meanwhile they allowed a current D1 player from a similar college, but who plays 1st singles to appeal to 4.5 and pretty much beat up on the competition.

They need to set these guys as 5.5 in the self-rating because there are lots of players with identical answers to the questions who are 5.5s, and they can't let these guys self-rate at 4.5. When there is so much potential variance among players with a similar background, they SHOULD be willing to grant appeals for players who are clearly not that level. Every reasonable self-rating appeal I know of has been granted by Middle States.

 

[mikeler]

Now the USTA is making D3 players 5.0s unless they appeal. We had to appeal one of our players down to 4.0. There was some grumbling about it, but after a year, he is now computer 4.0. Thats really where he belonged. He is a high 4.0, but has a mixed record both at 4.0 and 4.5. Another player we tried to get on our mixed team got rated 5.5 because he played D1. This player played 4th singles at best for a low level D1 team. He isn't even 5.0 level, but I understand him having to be a 5.0 until he gets a computer rating. For him to get 5.5 is just crazy. The USTA knows that 5.5 is a death sentence for league play. Why would they do that to a person with little junior ranking and a low level D1 player? Meanwhile they allowed a current D1 player from a similar college, but who plays 1st singles to appeal to 4.5 and pretty much beat up on the competition.

In our district, they made a guy who never played college tennis a 5.0 (me) and another guy who played at Alabama got rated down to a 4.5. Go figure.

 

[tennisjon]

They need to set these guys as 5.5 in the self-rating because there are lots of players with identical answers to the questions who are 5.5s, and they can't let these guys self-rate at 4.5. When there is so much potential variance among players with a similar background, they SHOULD be willing to grant appeals for players who are clearly not that level. Every reasonable self-rating appeal I know of has been granted by Middle States.

Hoping to for sure. I don't think he should be allowed to rate down to 4.5 since that is what the USTA has decided on their guide. He should have to play mixed or find a 5.0 league. Then due to results, if it warrants, he will get moved down to 4.5. Those of us in the loop know to appeal the rating, but lets say you don't know that and you get a 5.5 or a 5.0 when you don't have connections to a team. Essentially then, league tennis is practically a no go for you. The USTA needs to figure out a way for these 5.0/5.5 players to get to play more on teams and not just tournaments. If it means allowing two players per 4.5 team who are 5.0, I am all for it.

 

[schmke]

Hoping to for sure. I don't think he should be allowed to rate down to 4.5 since that is what the USTA has decided on their guide. He should have to play mixed or find a 5.0 league. Then due to results, if it warrants, he will get moved down to 4.5. Those of us in the loop know to appeal the rating, but lets say you don't know that and you get a 5.5 or a 5.0 when you don't have connections to a team. Essentially then, league tennis is practically a no go for you. The USTA needs to figure out a way for these 5.0/5.5 players to get to play more on teams and not just tournaments. If it means allowing two players per 4.5 team who are 5.0, I am all for it.

So this is what the plus leagues are all about, it is just that for 18 & over there is only a 5.0+ league. So if you get someone that should self-rate as a 5.5, if there aren't enough 5.0s around to have a league, there is no home for him.

But the plus leagues introduce their own issues (see weighted courts thread) as not every team is going to have 2 5.5 studs so they are going to be more likely to stack and the 5.5 is going to be playing a sacrificial lamb on court 1. Do this for a year, and the mere fact of playing weak opponents may get him bumped down to 5.0 so perhaps the end goal is accomplished.