Was this year Nadal's best chance to win Wimbledon?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by bluetrain4, Jul 8, 2007.

  1. bluetrain4

    bluetrain4 Legend

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    Many have said that Fed had to win the French this year or at the very latest next year.

    What about Nadal. Obviously he has the tools to beat Fed at Wimbledon, and since he's 3 or 4 years younger, there is no reason why he shouldn't be able to in the future.

    But, we've seen the ascension of other players (Djokovic, Gasquet, for example) who will only continue to get better. Also, there are always guys like Soderling and Roddick who remain dangerous.

    This was a great chance, considering all those break points in the 5th set, but I think he has a few years left where he has a great chance to win.
     
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  2. PimpMyGame

    PimpMyGame Hall of Fame

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    I think you've just answered your own question.
     
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  3. jaded

    jaded New User

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    Nadal will only continue to get better as well. With as well as he played Federer today, assuming he stays healthy, I think he could win Wimbledon as soon as next year.
     
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  4. christos_liaskos

    christos_liaskos Professional

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    My view is that Nadal clearly can beat Federer on grass. If there were as many grass events as there were clay then we would be in the situation that Fed totally dominates everyone but Nadal can occasionally get a win. The same way Nadal dominates clay but Fed can occasionally push him.

    The fact that the grass season is short and Wimbledon is therefore so long away may bring into play something that many people have been wondering over the last year or so; is Nadal's style of play too physically demanding and will he wear himself down by the time next Wimbledon comes around?
     
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  5. tricky

    tricky Hall of Fame

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    As Nadal develops a better service game -- and it's good today considering that Fed was mostly blocking shots back into Nadal's wheelhouse -- he'll continue to be a legit threat on grass. And he respects the surface, playing at the net more than his peers. When was the last time a clay court specialist played like this?

    The thing that people miss is that Nadal's FH has become more of a true offensive weapon on grass now. Because the speed is so much slower now, Nadal's adjusted to hit low and very, very wide-angled shots to run his opponents off the court. And he comes to the net to finish now. In a way, he's more like Roddick now on grass, albeit without the big serve and with better court coverage. Nadal just needs to improve his overall service game and improve his 2nd serve. Which he probably will.
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2007
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  6. BreakPoint

    BreakPoint Bionic Poster

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    Not sure if Nadal will make it to another Wimbledon final. I think if Djokovic was 100%, he would have taken out Nadal in the semis, and Youhzny should have taken out Nadal in the 4th round.
     
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  7. CyBorg

    CyBorg Legend

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    Nadal did a good thing by deciding to play more clay. Stuttgart in the summer and next spring/late winter he'll head on to Vina del Mar instead of Dubai.

    Rafa needs to play more on natural surfaces - clay and grass - to stay healthy, and take it easy on the hardcourts. This way he'll maintain good form at least into his mid-20s. History predicts that he'll burn out at about 24 years of age, but if he's smart he can bypass that.

    I think he'll win Wimbledon next year.
     
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  8. ACE of Hearts

    ACE of Hearts G.O.A.T.

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    He will win wimbledon because the conditions are good for him now.The bounces are getting high.Hell i wouldnt be surprise if he won it next year.Its absurd that wimbledon has been changed so much.
     
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  9. tricky

    tricky Hall of Fame

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    Absolutely. He can play the way he does if the surface is natural. It's only the hard court surface, where his body has to do with real joint impact forces, that's cause most of his injuries.

    True. It should always be the fastest surface among the slams. But I think Fed hurt himself by staying back too long. His point construction showed that he was afraid of Nadal passing him.
     
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  10. dozu

    dozu Banned

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    last year he went thru a vegetable draw... this year because of the rain he got a break against Djok..

    yes, this was his best chance
     
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  11. So let's see. First man to take Federer to five sets in five years. Made more than 10% of his UFE's on four break points in the fifth which could have changed the entire match. Hit more winners than Federer (not counting aces) and committed less UFE's overall. Basically outplayed Federer off the ground and there is no arguing that IMO. Just missed the best opportunities, while Federer used his serve to save his rear. He's continuing to improve as well.

    And some of you goons claim he might never make another final, and would have gone down to a healthy Djokovic? Anything is possible but show a little respect here. :roll:
     
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  12. christos_liaskos

    christos_liaskos Professional

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    Personally think Nadal possibly choked today?

    In the fourth I had the feeling that Nadal was going to win. Not cruise the 5th but grind it out. Roger is a great front runner and once he gets some momentum he can keep it up to close out a set on most occasions. I did not expect Nadal to break with every opportunity in the 5th but from memory it seems to me as though Nadal's focus and level dropped on his own service games. Federer took advantage and kept the momentum and his confidence returned and thankfully won.
     
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  13. Richie Rich

    Richie Rich Legend

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    i think nadal wins wimbledon before his career is over. he was very, very close today.
     
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  14. Michelangelo

    Michelangelo Professional

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    Think about Fed and Nadal who's gonna retire first. Also Spanish is exception of physical limitation. Look at Moya, Nadal... They should become body builder after they retire actually.
     
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  15. AAAA

    AAAA Hall of Fame

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    The are two key issues which some of you are unable to even notice:

    1) Was Nadal more competitive against Federer this year compared to last year? Yes he was.

    2) Was Nadal able to beat his opponents on route to the final more easily than last year? 3 reasons I think no

    a)Soderling was a five setter.

    b)Youzhny was a 5 setter also and he totally outplayed and out hit Nadal for a 2 set lead before physical impairment detrailed him.

    c) Djokovic has played 15 or 17 hours of tennis before playing Nadal in the semi and he won the first set convincingly before blisters and other injuries done him in.
     
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  16. Zaragoza

    Zaragoza Banned

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    At the age of 21 yes, it was his best chance.
     
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  17. Richie Rich

    Richie Rich Legend

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    sorry, coulda, woulda, shoulda's don't matter. he clearly showed he is the 2nd best player on grass - for the 2nd year in a row.
     
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  18. Mad iX

    Mad iX Semi-Pro

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    Nadal may never win Wimbledon, but after last night, I think it's definitely possible. It will be tough, though. Very tough.
     
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  19. J-man

    J-man Hall of Fame

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    Nadal is still young and improving and at the top of his game. He will have plenty of chances of winning Wimbledon. He's shown today in the final that Federer is more vernuable to Nadal on grass then Nadal is vernuable to Federer on clay. Pretty scary when you think of it. So, I think Nadal will have plenty of chances.
     
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  20. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    J-man,

    All that shows is that Wimbledon is making their "grass" more like clay in how it plays. Disgusting.

    On real grass, even as early as several years ago when Fed won his 1st Wimbledon, Nadal would be demolished by Federer.

    In any event, Federer was clearly the more mentally tough player today, winning both tie-breaks, and changing momentum in the 5th set, winning two service games when down 15-40. That's clutch.
     
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  21. lemons

    lemons Rookie

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    Yeah, Nadal had a real chance today.

    He was better than Federer today off the ground, better on breaking serve, better on points won at net (69% to 59%), and at least equal on court coverage.

    There were two factors that won it for Federer - Fed's great serving, and Nadal's knee injury that crept up in the 4th set. That knee problem was likely exacerbated by all the matches Nadal had to play consecutively this week because of the rain.

    I bet Nadal would have held the trophy today had his half of the draw played the compressed schedule caused by the rain.

    Nadal's a legitimate contendor to win future Wimbledons, but his window only stays open for the next 2 or 3 years. Guys that win Wimbledon are either great servers or great movers or a combination of both. Nadal is obviously falls in to the great mover category. But, just as its inevitable that he's going to continue pick out wedgies between every point, he's also eventually going to loose a step of his quickness, which will limit his chances of winning The Championships.
     
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  22. tennis_hand

    tennis_hand Hall of Fame

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    Does it depend on Nadal or Fed? No.

    It depends on what Wimbledon does with its surface. If the trend continues, Nadal will win it one day. If they reverse the trend, Nadal gets fewer chances.

    Or if they decide to use red clay next year, Nadal is going to win it 3 times.
     
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  23. ACE of Hearts

    ACE of Hearts G.O.A.T.

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    People just dont wanna get it.This **** is not grass, its clay.Like someone mentioned, paint it red.Wimbledon is no longer wimbledon and i have lost respect for the slam for making it slow as molasses.
     
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  24. tricky

    tricky Hall of Fame

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    I'm not so sure anymore. Nadal's been successful on HC surfaces this year, so he's acclimating to speed pretty well. What drove Federer crazy was FINALLY, somebody with a great baseline game decided to attack him relentlessly at the net. In that regard, I didn't understand why Federer was so insistent on just staying back there and trying to outgun Nadal. Nadal played a good balance of net game and baseline, and at least to me it suggests Nadal's ready for a faster grass surface.

    And, absolutely, Wimbledon needs to swing back. Wimbledon should always be the fastest surface. It was getting to Australian Open slow out of there. Federer was striking the ball clean and low on his BH side, right where his wheelhouse, but there was no pace on that ball. The grass seemed to kill the ballas soon as it hit.
     
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  25. ACE of Hearts

    ACE of Hearts G.O.A.T.

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    Tricky ur so wrong.Nadal would get destroyed.Hence he hasnt doned well at the U.S Open.He likes the big bounces and there where alot in this match.Indian wells and tournaments like miami are not fast hardcourts.

    When the grass is playing quick and the bounces are low, all of Fed's weapons are utilize on grass.The backhand is one of them and of course the forehand.
     
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  26. Lion King

    Lion King Semi-Pro

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    I agree: if Wimby stays as slow as it is now, Rafa has a definite chance. If it goes a bit back to, say, Queen's Club speed, Nadal will be taken out early by the likes of Mahut. No more finals for him in that case.
     
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  27. tricky

    tricky Hall of Fame

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    Nadal is still improving, and part of that has been learning to play hard court speed. Nadal has really improved on the slower HC surfaces. He's improved at the US Open over the past 2-3 years. If he makes the semifinals, that's no mean achievement.

    In any case, what I liked about Nadal's game today was his net approach game. His volleys were actually good. I just couldn't understand why Federer stayed back so much.

    It's weird, in that the ball seemed to bounce higher than the Australian. Even in that baked atmosphere, his BH shots were flying. Federer showed some exquisite slice shots at Wimbledon, and I think it helped even the FH vs. BH battle. Even with the surface bouncing high, his slice shots still skided on the green.
     
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