Discussion in 'College Tennis Talk' started by Dawgie Dawg, Apr 26, 2012.
Ohio State 4%
what do you think?
How did everyone else become an also-ran? Just beause USC lost last week?
UCLA, OSU 7%
Seriously, I have no idea. But, I stand firm in believing USC has a much better than 10% chance.
I'm surprised that Dawgie Dawg dosen't have UGA at 100%
Ohio State 10%
After we see the draws these %'s will probably look different.
I'll take a look at the draws Monday, but I would take USC vs the field. I'm not as confident as I was last year, but I'm pretty confident they'll do it yet again.
USC 58% - clear favorite in my book, as dubs and Johnson will give them a 2-0 lead in each match they play on the way to the title
UVA 16% - top 3 clicking now, but relatively weak dubs, questionable depth, and likely a tough draw shaping up...also I question Domi's toughness in the heat (and with rowdy crowds like he saw last year at Stanford) against some of the top #2s he will face...UVA might be wise to switch him and Frank for NCAAs
Ohio St 10% - if they play great dubs like they did in Indoors, they will be a tough out, but they will likely lose to a deep team like UGA or UCLA after losing a fickle dubs pt (or just lose straight up to the two better teams above) - @theotherkobe is the man, but he won't beat a guy like Frank again in NCAAs
UCLA 6% - the Meister-Thompson switch will hurt them, and I don't know if their depth can overcome that against the top teams - those guys will have to outdo themselves for UCLA to even make a final now
UGA 4% - yeah yeah home court advantage blah blah blah - this team has not looked like a superpower to me this season - they'll probably barely survive a team similar to UF like they did in the regular season then lose in the quarters - if their dubs was better I might buy into "the pit" carrying them to a title match a bit more
Duke 3% - 1) need another team to take out USC, which isn't likely to happen 2) need dubs pts, which they have a fighting chance of against most teams and 3) need Cunha to stop losing to guys like Jenkins and Hernandez and reclaim his inner barriCunha
Kentucky 3% - similar in a lot of ways to Duke - they'll need to get ahead of the game with dubs pts and get some good play out of the veteran Quigley
anyone else 0%
Fedace. I mean Nostradamus says:
Everyone else 24.743%
Its the spoiled childrens to lose
Yep, I am sure Feddie, errr Nostradamus, minored in statistics at Standford ... and, I am sure he has Standford at 110% with all other teams combined winning "when pigs fly."
Look, I think USC is the clear favorite too, but I don't know why you don't want to buy into UGA. No, they haven't blown every opponent off the court, but that's because a lot of them are still really good. They beat OSU. They beat 3 top 15 teams in a weekend to win the SEC Championship. They've only lost to USC and Kentucky, and they avenged the latter when it mattered most. It's not always pretty or dominant. But a win's a win. Results speak for themselves.
I give UGA about a 25% chance, along with Virginia. USC at 40%, and Ohio State at 10%. Would be very, very surprised to see someone outside the top 4 win.
Sounds like some of this analysis is seriously out of date. Domijan was a nervous freshman in his first NCAA final 16 last year. That won't be a problem this year, and that is one reason the sophomore Domijan stays ahead of the freshman, Frank.
Drew Courtney flew to Alabama a little while ago to get custom shoe orthotics for his foot problem. He seems to be a new man. You might want to check his results from the ACC tournament at #1 doubles and #4 singles. "Top 4 clicking now" is even better than "top 3 clicking now." You also might want to check the results at #3 doubles.
Most of your assessment sounds spot on if only it had been written about a month ago.
Do we have any evidence to point to the contrary with domijan? not saying that he won't handle it better. Also what do you think about UVa's doubles lineup? Hard to believe (especially with the scores from the ACC tournament) that frank and domijan will stay at 3 doubles. I thought they were better than rooda/shane all along. Do you think they should keep the rooda/shane pairing together?
It might be Uriguen and Rooda if Uriguen gets totally healthy and match fit.
if you're struggling mightily with teams like UF sometimes, there's a good chance you may struggle from the rd of 16 onward in NCAAs
#1) one day, a guy like van overbeek may not hand you the choke of a lifetime and a win, and out you go early in the event
#2) you may be exhausted by the time you get to the semis, if you do
we'll see what happens, but i feel pretty comfortable lumping UGA in with UK and Duke in the very very low chance of winning category
if you're more impressed with your team than i am and don't like my opinion of them, that's fine, good luck!
i guess we'll see who's out of date / who's right / who's wrong / who's blinded by the love-fest with UVA's players on thesabre / etc in a few weeks
if you say so...the rest of us without a crystal ball may not know until he sets foot in that big loud stadium on a hot day, with an opponent across from him that is making him play points longer than he wants, with an annoying fan yelling in his ear every time he gives in with a frustrated error
did you have a straight face when you wrote that? i'm aware of his results from the ACC tournament - a very nice small sample where he got revenge on saba...and i also watched him play saba and lose a month ago on video feed...i couldn't tell if he had fancy orthotics in place so maybe he hadn't undergone his metamorphosis yet
fact: UVA has lost more than its usual share of dubs pts this year
fact: UVA split two very close dubs pts with Duke during the past month (you think Duke is as good at dubs as OSU or USC? i don't)
opinion: there's a very good chance UVA will lose 2+ dubs pts if they survive long enough to play all 4 matches in NCAAs
opinion: they will not come back 2+ times against teams like UCLA, OSU, USC
again, we'll see going to predict a 7-0 win for UVA over USC again this year? that was pretty spot on last year
man, when you don't tell UGA and UVA fans that you think they are superpowers with tremendous chances of winning NCAAs, you really ruffle some feathers...sorry?
I had to take into account unpredictable things like net courts and bad officiating.
I don;t understand why a Duke fan has that much bravado.
haha i'm not one of those duke bball fans who's surprised when duke doesn't win a title
won 100$ this year betting a friend they wouldn't get to rd of 16
when you recruit too many stiff white PFs like the plumlees and lose a guy like irving only to replace him with scrubs like quinn cook and thornton, early exits happen
but i still like our four banners - one of which i saw happen live
No feathers ruffled here. I was just providing a counterpoint to what you said, because it honestly sounded like the same things that UVa fans were saying as we worried about our team a month ago. Drew Courtney was really struggling in every match a few weeks ago, even against competition that was not that great. His performance at the ACC tourney was three excellent doubles matches and three excellent singles matches, not just one win against Saba.
April 13: UVa only beats Florida State 4-3 in Charlottesville, with Andres Bucaro (#3, with one of FSU's best records) out of the lineup. Drew Courtney plays #5 (!) and loses to Jason Zafiros 7-6, 6-7, [10-3]. Justin Shane plays #4 and loses to Benjamin Lock in 3 sets. Lock has been looking like a rising star for Florida State for a while, working his way up from 6 to 4 as a freshman. Eight days later, at the ACC tournament, UVa beats Florida State 4-0 at a neutral site. Drew Courtney plays #4 and beats Benjamin Lock 6-2, 6-1. See any difference in performance there?
The week before the FSU/Miami weekend in C'ville, we took a road trip to Clemson and Georgia Tech, and Drew Courtney played #5. He beat Hunter Harrington of Clemson 5-7, 7-6, [10-8]. He played three better players than that in the ACCs and did not lose a set. So, we are not talking about one data point here, the Saba match.
Notice I did not contradict your claim that we are shaky at 5 and 6, because we have yet to prove otherwise against top level competition. Another wild card is that Domijan and Frank are looking great at #3 doubles, but will probably have to play #2 in the NCAAs as a result. At this point, we don't even know who that will leave at #3 doubles. However, when you consider that we were losing almost every doubles point against top 25 teams for a good stretch of the season, and now we have two doubles teams that are suddenly looking very good, then there is some reason for optimism. We have to continue to keep an eye on the bottom of the singles and doubles lineups in the NCAA regionals before we can decide exactly how optimistic we should be. If we cannot pick up wins at #3 doubles and #5-6 singles, then it is a tough task. But if Courtney still was struggling at #4, then it would have put us in the long shot category -- say, about 16% chance of winning it.
a solid enough response
i'll just say
#1) there's a big difference b/t middle-of-the-road ACC competition at 4 singles and UCLA / USC / OSU at those positions - same w/ 3 dubs...turning things around bigtime vs some ACC opponents doesn't tell me much of anything about how things will go at the next level of competition...so yes a step in the right direction but I'll stay skeptical
#2) even some of the positions where UVA has been great like #1 dubs will likely be underdogs vs the big guns - USC, OSU, and UCLA are fantastic at that spot - did you see UCLA treat Cal and Stanford's #1 dubs teams like they were a couple of 4.5 USTA teams in back to back matches? - so again I don't know if UVA can win more than 2/4 dubs pts even if they have gotten a bit better at the lower spots
Then again, UCLA's performance against Cal today does not exactly make them look overwhelming at #1 doubles and #4 singles:
1. #44 Alex Brigham/Puget (UCLA) vs. #5 Andrews/Konigsfeldt (CAL) 4-7 DNF
2. Meister/Novikov (UCLA) def. #56 Carlos Cueto/B. McLachlan (CAL) 8-3
3. Giron/Warren Hardie (UCLA) def. Bayane/Andrew Scholnick (CAL) 8-5
UCLA Wins Doubles Point
1. #17 Nick Meister (UCLA) vs. #44 Ben McLachlan (CAL) 4-6, 4-4 DNF
2. #73 Clay Thompson (UCLA) def. #56 Nick Andrews (CAL) 6-2, 6-3
3. Dennis Novikov (UCLA) def. Gregory Bayane (CAL) 6-2, 7-5
4. #71 Marcos Giron (UCLA) vs. Chris Konigsfeldt (CAL) 5-7, 4-5, DNF
5. #46 Adrien Puget (UCLA) def. Riki McLachlan (CAL) 7-5, 6-2
6. Dennis Mkrtchian (UCLA) def. Chase Melton (CAL) 7-6(6), 6-3
I'll take Drew Courtney vs. either Marcos Giron or Chris Konigsfelt, last match on at 3-3 in the final, thanks very much.
haha fair enough, not the best day to pump up UCLA's #1 dubs team
giron vs courtney is an interesting matchup - i wouldn't want to have to decide who to put money on in that
Puget vs Shane is another really good one that would be hard to decide who to put money on
Hard to bet on shane when his record is 1-4 at the ncaa's and indoor championships. plus puget has only lost 2 matches this year
The best that Virginia fans can say about the 5/6 singles positions is that we will see how we look at the NCAA regionals, and even the round of 16, before we decide whether we are optimistic or not. UCLA is a depth team. The bottom two positions are their strength. I don't see them getting a point at the top 4 positions, however, and I think the doubles point is probably going to be a toss-up if we play them. I am not sure that they will end up on our side of the draw. Depends on the USC-UCLA match tomorrow. If Thompson beats Sarmiento, then UCLA has a shot at another 4-3 win, and that would put them at #2 in the nation by my calculations, and Virginia would be down to #5, on the other side of the draw. But I would be happy right now if you told me that we will meet UCLA in the final!
If courtney is firing on all cylinders then that would make UVa the second favorite in my eyes and very close to USC. It would've been nice to see his progress if he played saba outdoors because courtney is much better player indoors with his serve and with matches not being as physically demanding.
these statements are always so dangerous...to have a >50% likelihood that UVA would get all four of those points, they would have to have an 85% chance of winning at each of the four spots
maybe you see all four guys as being huge favorites, but I think you would be in the minority on that one
also a good point by 10isplayer about the indoors rematch vs saba, that had slipped my mind...so really courtney's best post-magic-shoe win was when he was put on fast indoor courts against a grinding baseliner...ok
No weaknesses? Here's one. I really think UCLA exposed a few cracks in the Trojan foundation, and I'm going to question their depth. I really like Hanfmann and I think he can develop into their #1 player over the next few years, but he is just a freshman. Quiroz has not been overly dominant, and it's hard not to say that Gomez is having a sophomore slump. I'm not saying they can't step up, but I could see them being seriously tested in the semis and finals if they make it that far.
I agree, but I don't think "if they make it that far" is a big worry. They will win in the round of 16, then face someone like Duke or Pepperdine in the quarterfinals. Both are good teams, but USC losing to either one would be a major upset. You can chart out on paper how such an upset would happen, but it is not something you bet on.
There is some reward to being the #1 seed in the draw.
never said they have no weaknesses and i can see them being tested also - we're talking about chances of winning not chances of never sweating en route
but like i said in my little blurb about them - i see them getting a 2-0 cushion in each match they play - weaknesses or not at the #2-6 positions, i wish other teams the best of luck winning 4 out of those remaining 5 spots
Yeah, true. Just wanted to throw out a possible weakness since all the other schools listed had one. As for UVA, I really hope we get another shot at USC. I'm sure UGA and OSU are thinking the same thing, but I think on the day of the finals, I think UVA can give them the best challenge.
Don't forget about some floaters. Teams like Duke,Pepperdine and maybe Kentuckly can be upset by Oklahoma,Ole Miss or Miss State.
The tournament will be so fun
i feel pretty good about only giving two teams >10% chances of winning after today
OSU loses to the Illini after winning dubs pt haha - if only there were two more rankings to come so Duke could benefit from the Illini win
i assume the main reason i am supposed to be impressed with UGA is that they beat this OSU team - yeahhh, UGA is as good as the Illini, i am convinced of that at least
the supposed 'big 4' this year is silly - as we will see in NCAAs
congrats to UVA on probably avoiding the 4-5 match vs UCLA
OSU vs UCLA now???
absolutely, after watching a good bit of OU vs A&M, i think there are very few teams who should feel really comfortable seeing OU across the net
and by very few i mean just USC...i would be very nervous as a UVA fan about losing the dubs pt to them, if that were to happen again
yeah, last time they turned it around into a 6-1 win, but that included 4 third-sets
lol Oklahoma has noooo shot. John Roddick gets tight under pressure and it shows in his players.
Ohio State vs. UCLA is a really tough match to predict, position by position, especially due to some recent inconsistency from the players on both teams. I have said before that it is really tough to predict how college athletes in general will perform. These are not mature professionals. In a pressure sport like tennis, it is especially true.
Then you have very little in common opponents from these two teams from different regions of the country. How do you gauge Novikov vs. Kobelt, Giron vs Van Engelen with Giron's talent but injuries and inconsistencies and youth, Meister vs. Buchanan?
I love those matchups. Like I definetly do not want to see UGA vs UK again or UVA vs Duke again. Id rather see Virginia vs Kentucky and Georgia vs Duke or Georgia vs Peppderdine.
Ohio State vs UCLA would be great.
only one of these players has hit a game-winning shot against Big Walnut - novikov has no comparable athletic achievement
so i'd have to go with @theotherkobe
Very true. However, we have the potential for another upset if Ohio State faces Ole Miss in the round of 16. Ohio State should be favored there, but not exactly an easy match.
Look me in the eye and tell me your team is going to beat the Dawgs on the Dawg Pound.
Yeah didn't think so
My team is going to beat the Dawgs in (not "on") the Dawg Pound.
Rest of field-%5
USC-UGA finals. UGA 4-3, after finding a way to steal the dubs point.
That would give us 14 finals appearances in the last 28 tournies and even our record to 7-7 in the finals, avenging the '91 and '93 finals loses (that I witnessed.)
UCLA/OSU 10% each
Uky, Oklahoma, 5% each
I'm going USC over UVa in the finals
That's 105% total. Let's take away the 5% for Oklahoma and it all adds up.
I will be interested to see this thread as we move to the quarterfinals. It is still hard to read some of these teams until we see a round of 16 match.
bad math, I'll take out the %5 for OU now haha
Well, shoot...I'll just hold off on my predictions until afterwards & then I'll throw 100% on the champ and give everyone a big I TOLD YOU SO...hahaha
USC -- 48 %
Georgia -- 30 %, just cause home court advantage
UVA -- 12 %
Stanford -- 10%
True. I can hardly imagine someone beating Cal's #1 doubles team badly. How could UCLA do that? Certainly, Virginia could never do that.
they didn't beat down klahn/thacher also in back to back matches, but yeah your guys looked good in dubs today, i'll agree with that
fortunately for uva, they really don't play any strong dubs teams til the finals - so this weakness will get hidden a bit and maybe they'll get lucky vs usc
- stanford dubs is garbage, i don't really like this klahn/thacher split where they don't even have a single good dubs team anymore
- UGA is weak at dubs, certainly no ohio st / ucla / usc...it will be crucial to avoid letting UGA get this point and the momentum of the home crowd behind them, but i think UVA should be favored
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