What are Rafa's chances of getting to 20 slams?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by kragster, Mar 15, 2012.

?

What are Rafa's chances of getting to 20 slams?

  1. 42%

    11 vote(s)
    42.3%
  2. 43%

    1 vote(s)
    3.8%
  3. 44%

    2 vote(s)
    7.7%
  4. 45%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. 45.5%

    12 vote(s)
    46.2%
  1. Pushmaster

    Pushmaster Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2004
    Messages:
    1,768
    Location:
    Pittsburgh, PA
    Not impossible, but he'll have to figure out a way to beat the Joker in order to get there.
     
    #51
  2. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2008
    Messages:
    13,123
    If Federer dominated the Nadal the way he dominated the field, he'd have 1 more W, one more AO(09) and one more RG (2011). I don't think he was a better player at any other RG against the field than Rafa, and Djokovic was better at AO 2012 against the field I think, though that's a close one.
     
    #52
  3. agentaviles

    agentaviles Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2007
    Messages:
    242
    Location:
    Dallas, TX
    Correction, if Federer dominated Nadal the way he dominated the field, he would have 4 more RG Titles, if not 5. Since Nadal beat Fed at 3 straight RG Finals 06-08. (Nadal beat Fed at the 05 RG Semis if you recall, and I'm pretty sure Fed would've beaten Puerta.)

    So if you add that all up, Federer would have 22 Slams right now, possibly 23.
     
    #53
  4. Marius_Hancu

    Marius_Hancu G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2004
    Messages:
    17,790
    Location:
    Montreal, Canada
    zero zero zero
     
    #54
  5. pvaudio

    pvaudio Legend

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    7,543
    Is this a thread in probability theory?
     
    #55
  6. kiki

    kiki Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2010
    Messages:
    18,715
    In such a weak era, he can win them...and he can always enter the WTA field, where he has not to fear an Evert,Seles, Graf or Navy...
     
    #56
  7. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2008
    Messages:
    17,104
    Location:
    Toronto
    He has at least 16 more chances at slams.....he could get to 20.....but Djokovic, Murray and Federer would stop him more than 8 of 16 events.

    More likely for Nadal to win 5 more slams.
     
    #57
  8. JustBob

    JustBob Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2009
    Messages:
    1,973
    Why do Rafa fans have such silly lofty expectations? The fact that someone with such average raw/natural tennis talent has been able to win 10 slams is already an astounding achievement.
     
    #58
  9. ZeroSkid

    ZeroSkid Banned

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2011
    Messages:
    1,441
    Location:
    Canada
    Probably 15, 20 is impossible, not even Roger can get that many
     
    #59
  10. Winners or Errors

    Winners or Errors Professional

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008
    Messages:
    1,497
    0%. He's at 10. Are you saying he's going to win another 6 titles at RG, because that's what it will take for him to get to 20?
     
    #60
  11. MichaelNadal

    MichaelNadal Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2007
    Messages:
    28,949
    Location:
    Tuning Up The Band...
    [​IMG]
     
    #61
  12. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2009
    Messages:
    21,039
    He has a better chance in winning 20 slams than 20 MS.
     
    #62
  13. DeShaun

    DeShaun Banned

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2010
    Messages:
    2,837
    He wont even play in 20 slam finals
     
    #63
  14. kragster

    kragster Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2011
    Messages:
    1,678
    you're on to me :)
     
    #64
  15. CDestroyer

    CDestroyer Professional

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2011
    Messages:
    1,355
    The sme chances that he moves out of his parents house. Zero.
     
    #65
  16. SoBad

    SoBad Legend

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2006
    Messages:
    7,527
    Location:
    shiran
    It is much closer to over 50% than most people realise, even though it has been shifting toward a strong era lately.
     
    #66
  17. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2010
    Messages:
    14,544
    Nadal is not getting to 20 slams. He will be lucky to get to 13 or 14.
     
    #67
  18. SoBad

    SoBad Legend

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2006
    Messages:
    7,527
    Location:
    shiran
    If Nadal banks fewer than 18 slams, despite this increasingly strong era, you should feel very lucky.
     
    #68
  19. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2010
    Messages:
    14,544

    I'll take your words under advisement! :roll:

    You can live in your own fantasy world but Nadal is not getting to 18 slams, and I don't think even the most batty Nadal fan thinks he will.
     
    #69
  20. SoBad

    SoBad Legend

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2006
    Messages:
    7,527
    Location:
    shiran
    Thanks, duly noted.:lol:
     
    #70
  21. celoft

    celoft Guest

    He won't reach 13-14.

    11-12 tops.
     
    #71
  22. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2009
    Messages:
    21,039
    If I can get 20 grand slam, I'm sure Nadal can get it too.
    [​IMG]
     
    #72
  23. agentaviles

    agentaviles Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2007
    Messages:
    242
    Location:
    Dallas, TX
    LMAO!!! That's a nice burn
     
    #73
  24. Boricua

    Boricua Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2011
    Messages:
    3,084
    None, too much competition. Could win a bunch of French Opens though and a few of the other Slams. He could get to 14 or 15 Slams if he plays real well.
     
    #74
  25. mattennis

    mattennis Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2011
    Messages:
    2,114
    The most I can see for him is 13 GS.

    He is not getting to 16 GS.

    16 GS is an aberration, something that has ocurred just one time (in the Open Era) because several factors came in together: the most talented/best tennis player in the Open Era, homogeneization of conditions, slower conditions all along (so less casualties, less surprise defeats), homogeneization of playing styles (baseliners everybody)....

    These same conditions have allowed Nadal to reach 10 GS (that I don't think he would have achieved in other eras), but 16 GS is just too much.

    I don't see Djokovic reaching 16 GS either. The most I see for Nole is about 10 GS.
     
    #75

Share This Page