What are the chances?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by Aonex, Jul 21, 2004.

  1. Aonex

    Aonex Semi-Pro

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    ...that someone not named Andy or Roger win at Flushing this year?

    As for the women, don't even know where to start... I suppose Serena is the favorite. Are the Belgians playing? How about the two grand slam Russians, do they have a shot?
     
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  2. Tim Tiger Henman

    Tim Tiger Henman Rookie

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    I would say that Roddick is going to be next to impossible for anyone to beat. He is a far stronger player than 1 year ago. Sure Federer has the edge on grass. But on hardcourt, in the US, it has to be Andy.
     
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  3. PJVA

    PJVA Rookie

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    Federer has a winning record against Roddick on hardcourt as do some others. It's a mistake to think that Federer can only dominate on grass.

    I think for the men a lot will depend on the draw that they get. Having to play 2 or 3 tough matches along the way is more of a feat than getting a cakewalk to the final.

    I doubt the Belgians will be match ready because their health problems. I'd say it's up to Sharapova, Serena, and perhaps a couple others.
     
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  4. tennisozzy_new

    tennisozzy_new New User

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    A handful of players can get hot and win the thing:
    - Hewitt, given a decent draw. He can take out Roddick.
    - Haas, slowly gaining pace for the Open
    - Safin, can beat all players on all surfaces
     
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  5. Nadal2

    Nadal2 Rookie

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    I wouldn't say that Andy is next to impossible to beat. Sure, he has made tremendous improvements since last year, which many didn't think he should have won, but Roger has been next to impossible to beat when he's playing his best, too, on any surface.
    I still think he has an edge over Roddick on hard. But we'll just see what the USTA thinks of this year for Roddick.
    A few names that could win it: Andre (unless you count that as in the same name as Andy), David, Marat (I am sick of his unstable results, but he has been just plain dominant at times at Flushing Meadows. Still, very low chance that he's at his best), and Mardy. But I would still say it's about 60% likely that someone named Andy or Roger will win this year's USO, with the most danger to these two coming from Safin and Nalbandian.
     
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  6. PureCarlosMoyaDrive

    PureCarlosMoyaDrive Professional

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    For men the threats IMO are: Roddick, Federer as the top 2 of course, then Nalbandian, Safin, Haas could be Roddick actually (not a favorite though), Moya (can't beat Federer, and his chances against Roddick are only slightly better), and Coria on hard can be deadly too. I say Fed wins it though.

    Women, who knows. When will Justine get better? Clijsters probably won't play, so the favorites are Serena and Sharpova, maybe Myskina too. Maybe Mauresmo can FINALLY do it.
     
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  7. The tennis guy

    The tennis guy Hall of Fame

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    If Federer could dominate the field in Australia Open earlier this year, he certainly can dominate in US Open this year since the courts bounce lower, and faster to his liking.

    I still believe Federer is the heavy favorite in best of 5 against Roddick on any surfaces. I would put the odds at 50-50 in best of 3 on hard courts vs Roddick. Federer is so much more efficent than Roddick. It takes more than all out play from Roddick against Federer like he did at Wimbledon this year when Federer is on top of his game.

    I have a different take on Federer vs Roddick at Wimbledon this year. If Roodick tries to play that type of high risk game against Federer on any other surfaces outside grass, he wouldn't be as close to beating Federer. Grass rewards high risk game because it is tough to defend on grass. Federer can defend much better on other surfaces than he did at Wimbledon against Roddick this year.
     
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  8. Feña14

    Feña14 Legend

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    You can't rule out Henman, he has winning records against most of the top 10 players, he can play on hard. If he's on form he can do major damage. He can go deep as shown in the French on his least favourite surface and do well, he even pushed Coria in the semis.

    I also think that Hewitt and Safin will do well, and of course you can't rule out Ferrero after last years performance.

    They will be the players to trouble the 2 big guns this year imo.

    -Liam
     
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  9. Tim Tiger Henman

    Tim Tiger Henman Rookie

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    Well the bookies have Fed at 11/8 and Rod at 11/4. The next highest player is Hewitt at 9-1!!!

    Agassi 14-1

    Saffin, Ferrero both at 25-1

    Henman 33-1

    And last but not least Rusedski at 500-1 !!

    Last time I looked Elvis had better odds of winning the US.
     
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  10. PureCarlosMoyaDrive

    PureCarlosMoyaDrive Professional

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    Forgot bout Hewitt, he always does well there. Henman is a good pick too to make an upset. But Ferrero can't do much this year. He still lost first round on clay in Gstaad, so he doesn't have much of a chance I don't think to go beyond the third round sadly.
     
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  11. Shaolin

    Shaolin Hall of Fame

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    funny one Tiger Tim. Rusedski, what a waste of skin.

    Fed will destroy everyone. Including Rodneck. See his results last year at the Masters Cup for reference, and he's even better rnow than he was then, plus hes won already 2 majors which will give him even more belief he should win another.

    BTW how long has it been since someone won 3 majors in a calendar year on the ATP?
     
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  12. Vlad

    Vlad Professional

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    Outside of Fed and Roddick, I would say Hewitt, Nalbandian, Safin (his management claims he trained hard in Israel and wants to make a splash again like in Australia), possibly Henman, Moya and Coria.
    I don' think Ferrero can do it but who knows.
     
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  13. PureCarlosMoyaDrive

    PureCarlosMoyaDrive Professional

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    Shaolin, it was Mats Wilander in 1988, Aus, French, US. Connors did it in 1974. Aus, Wimby, US. And then Laver of course won the slam in 1969. Now mark your calendars for Federer 2004, Aus, Wimby and US Open. It's for the record books folks....
     
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  14. PJVA

    PJVA Rookie

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    CarlosMoya, it would be nice to have Federer win the USOpen and make 3 majors in one year for the record books.

    I would really like to see Roddick get a tough draw for a change and see how well he does. For example let's see him play against Hewitt, Nalbandian and Safin in his quarter.
     
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  15. Phil

    Phil Hall of Fame

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    Ahh, yeah, you can.
     
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  16. PJVA

    PJVA Rookie

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    For Henman to make it to the final it would take an awfully lucky draw and some weird upsets. I don't see him beating Federer, but he could beat Roddick and many others.

    He seemed really out of it at Wimby, yet he was playing better than ever at RG, so you never know what Tiger Tim will be like at a tournament.
     
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  17. Ariel

    Ariel Rookie

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    LOL Phil.
     
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