What's changed with Federer?

Discussion in 'Pro Match Results and Discussion' started by joeri888, Oct 25, 2012.

  1. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    To me, since Basel last year, up until Cincy this year. Fed barely put a foot wrong. Rome, RG, Halle stretch was somewhat unimpressive, and the OG final rough, but he just won so many of the tournaments he played. Since then, Federer just seems 2 levels below that level again. His whole US OPen didn't impress me a whole lot, and he lost before the semis for the first time since 2003. Shanghai was a poor showing too. Not just the match against Murray, but also Cilic (who played poor himself) and Wawrinka (who shouldve won). Now we are two matches in in Basel, and it's again so-so.

    Do you guys have a clue what the difference in his game is? Just overall execution or a particular aspect?
     
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  2. Tafmatch

    Tafmatch Rookie

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    I think he's not that hungry right now. He reached the goals he set last year (winning Wimbledon, #1) and he really pushed himself to do that. Maybe he's just a bit drained mentally. His level def dropped after his Wimbledon-win. The guy needs a break!
     
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  3. Netspirit

    Netspirit Hall of Fame

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    No, the guy needs a heartbreaking loss. Only that can fire him up these days.
     
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  4. slice bh compliment

    slice bh compliment G.O.A.T.

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    I'm sure it is very subtle. He cannot possibly be happy with any of the recent losses (especially at the US Open), but right now it's fall, and a legend like Roger, as professional as he is, cannot be feeling as motivated as he'd be in a slam.

    Heading into London, I'm sure his intensity and his level will ratchet up a notch or two.

    That said, Murray and Djokovic (and the others) have got to be awfully hungry as well.
     
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  5. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    I think his intensity was not the problem at all in Shanghai. He really wanted to win there to give himself a chance for year end no. 1
     
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  6. slice bh compliment

    slice bh compliment G.O.A.T.

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    Do you think he was at peak intensity, but just outplayed? He's probably not used to that. But it could be happening more and more as he ages and as the best guys grow more mature. Credit to Muzzer, who played very effectively from all parts of the court.
     
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  7. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    it wasn't a Wimbledon final for him, and he probably never got into the groove, but he wanted to win pretty badly. Just like OG final I guess.
     
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  8. Hood_Man

    Hood_Man Legend

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    He might just be tired. He's played 75 matches this year already and he still has a few more matches in Basel (surely he'll win?), then I assume a semi in Paris, and then surely a semi final showing at least in the WTF, so he could end the year with a potential 84-85 matches played (possibly more).

    His record in the last few years was:

    2011 - 76 matches played
    2010 - 78
    2009 - 73
    2008 - 81
    2007 - 77

    So this year he's already played almost as many (or even more) matches than he had in 4 of his last 5 entire seasons.

    It's a longer schedule than he's been used to, and a more packed one too with the Olympics and the earlier end to the season.

    That's not to say his losses weren't due to great performances from his opponents, they probably were. This could explain his fairly lacklustre form as of late.

    Yes haters, an explanation, not an excuse :p
     
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  9. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    Hmm good point. I think he'll skip Paris. He'll realize he's not gonna end the year at no. 1, so might as wel focus on a seventh(!!!) YEC
     
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  10. NDFM

    NDFM Rookie

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    He's tired and perhaps not as motivated as he was at the start of the year, he's reached all the goals he wanted this year: no.1, another slam, olympic medal
     
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  11. romeo8880

    romeo8880 Legend

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    Well, if other top players don't care about these little crap tournaments I'm sure Federer doesn't either at this stage of his career. Not sure why the guys even play in these tournaments if they aren't gonna try.
     
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  12. Jackuar

    Jackuar Rookie

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    I think he is just taking it easy and saving it up for WTF. USO was not ah orrible show. He said he tried his best but somehow Berdych was better on that particular day. He did well in Cincy. Since Basel field is weak and its close to WTF, he is taking it easy. WTF is so so important because Djoker has nothing to defend except 200 points and Fed has 1500 - which is very crucial for his YE No.1. He must be concentrating with that in mind. Basel is just a 500 point cushion and his home event - else he wouldn't be even appearing there. I think it will do him a world of good if he can skip Paris and concentrate on 7th YEC. Year End Ranking is too much to ask.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2012
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  13. SLD76

    SLD76 Legend

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    i think the whole reason he played shanghai was so he could skip paris and try and retain WTF.
     
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  14. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    Federer is about as bored as I am with tennis at this time of year.:neutral:
     
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  15. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

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    Nothing, Murray and Berdych played great and deserved to win. Federer is likely to win the Basel again so no worries about that!
     
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  16. Agassifan

    Agassifan Hall of Fame

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    Some would tell you this is peak fed in a strong era
     
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  17. brianb76

    brianb76 Rookie

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    I think if he wins Basel he will play Bercy to give himself a shot at year end #1. If not might as well skip Bercy to rest up for London.
     
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  18. rofl_copter3

    rofl_copter3 Professional

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    Federer is tired, lacking motivation and probably wondering how much longer he wants to do this... There is no way honestly for him to get ye#1 so that motivation is gone, so the rest of this year has nothing to drive him. The question is can he get it back mentally for the AO
     
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  19. 6-1 6-3 6-0

    6-1 6-3 6-0 Banned

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    Maybe Federer is thinking about retirement.
     
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  20. PCXL-Fan

    PCXL-Fan Hall of Fame

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    If Federer tries his best at Paris and WTF he could potentially reclaim no.1 if Djokovic doesn't win AO13.

    Because of this I think he should at least try.
     
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  21. SQA333

    SQA333 Hall of Fame

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    I think that you should retire.
     
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  22. Jackuar

    Jackuar Rookie

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    Agree there. Would have been too good if only he had won it and compensated for Paris let-go.
     
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  23. The Bawss

    The Bawss Banned

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    I think had he won in Shanghai he would have played Paris but tanked in the QF to someone like Benneteau or Simon to give himself some rest for the WTF.
     
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  24. Jackuar

    Jackuar Rookie

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    I think the other way; had he won Shanghai, he would have participated in Basel and skipped Paris altogether.
    Last year he won Paris and skipped Shanghai. He chose Shanghai this year with the calculation that if he wins it, he gets the same 1000 points. That makes it like defending his points and also getting a much needed break before YEC. If he had won Shanghai, that plan would have been a great move. Unfortunately he lost in SF, which removed his liberty to take it easy in Basel.

    Just my thoughts. You could be right again; we're not sure what Fed is planning. But I still think he should skip Paris now, nevermind the huge 1000 points there and go for the YEC.
     
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  25. coloskier

    coloskier Legend

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    Are you saying he wants to join Nadal in retirement? :)
     
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  26. Def

    Def Semi-Pro

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    #26
  27. TonyB

    TonyB Hall of Fame

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    If I were Fed, I wouldn't worry about year-end #1.... I'd personally try to take it easy after Basel and focus on AO 2013. If he could pick up another major quickly (time is running out), it would be worth losing the #1 ranking at the end of 2012.

    If he doesn't win the AO next year, he very likely will not win the FO, either, so by the time Wimbledon/US Open rolls around, we're talking about a 32-year old Federer trying to win a major against a peaking Murray and a very strong Djokovic, if not Nadal in comeback-mode.

    Like I said, I'd lay off the rest of 2012 and focus on AO 2013. That would be his best chance of ever winning another major.
     
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  28. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    I see your point, but historically, YEC is almost as big as AO. Fed has a better chance at winning because of more suitable conditions, and it's 'only' 5 BO3 matches. Now I believe he can beat anyone at AO, but is the 'extra rest' that gives him not playing the WTF really worth it. I dont think it'll increase his chances for AO, in which - for me - he's only the joint third favourite with Nadal, behind Djokovic and Murray. Last year, conditions were chewing gum-like.
     
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  29. TonyB

    TonyB Hall of Fame

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    It's not the extra rest, it's the mental toll. Federer needs to clear his mind so he can focus on the majors. Nobody will remember that he won another YEC, but they most certainly will remember 18 majors vs. 17.

    Granted, the conditions at the AO aren't the best, but it's still a better chance for him than FO or Wimbledon/US Open that are so much later in the year.

    Time is running out. No doubt about it. He has to strike while the iron's hot. Even if it's not really all that hot right now. But he has to increase his odds one way or the other. And right now, that means laying off the Masters so he can rest his mind for the next upcoming major.
     
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  30. ST_spitzertelescope

    ST_spitzertelescope Semi-Pro

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    It's not just about breaking records with majors. Fed himself said he wanted to be No. 1, and he would be remembered for being No. 1 for a record breaking number of weeks along side hominy grand slams he's won.
     
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  31. TonyB

    TonyB Hall of Fame

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    And he's already done the #1 thing. He's got the record, he doesn't need to continue breaking his back trying to keep it. He beat Sampras, he's reached the 300 week level, that's enough.

    He needs to focus on the majors, which is going to be the main feature of his legacy. Only die-hard tennis fans will remember how many weeks he was #1, or how many Paris or YEC titles he won, but EVERYONE will remember how many majors he won.
     
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  32. 3fees

    3fees Hall of Fame

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    The grind of the atp tour wears the players down
     
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  33. underground

    underground Legend

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    #33
  34. smoledman

    smoledman Legend

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    This. Fed will beat Del Potro in the final tomorrow, then withdraw from Paris citing "fatigue". Then he'll stomp the London field again.
     
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  35. smoledman

    smoledman Legend

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    Imagine if Fed could win 10 YEC, people will remember that for sure. He certainly could win 4 more.
     
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  36. Nathaniel_Near

    Nathaniel_Near Talk Tennis Guru

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    Good trolls never die.
     
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  37. TheF1Bob

    TheF1Bob Banned

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    He's old and wrinkly.

    It's expected. 8)
     
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  38. Polvorin

    Polvorin Professional

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    He's looked like he hasn't been training much since the US Open. Probably resting after a long season.
     
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  39. CDNguy87

    CDNguy87 Hall of Fame

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    I don't really agree that going for the WTF hinders his chances at the AO. He'll have roughly 2 months to rest and "clear his mind" before the AO regardless of what happens at the WTF...that should be enough. Realistically, I don't think he has a chance of winning the AO anyway as long as Djoker and Murray are healthy. They're clearly the 2 best hard-court players at the moment and given how slow the AO plays, Fed would have little chance of beating even one (let alone both) there if they're anywhere near their current forms.

    The only Slams Fed realistically has a chance in are Wimbledon and, if it's playing relatively fast and he gets a favourable draw, the USO. But there are so many guys (at least half a dozen) who can seriously threaten him on HC now that he really does need a lot of things to go right at the USO and the window is closing rapidly. Wimbledon is much more likely for him just based on how few truly consistent grass-court players there are in the Top 10-20.
     
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  40. 3fees

    3fees Hall of Fame

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    Federer is not his usual cool self,,in more and more tournaments he's getting upset with fans and himself, this impacts his play. He is also changing physcially,since he is getting older he's not as quick in his steps as in his earlier years,,he needs to play smarter not to just slug it out with younger players,,he needs to construct points by wit rather than just slug it out,,Sir Rodney Laver-the sheep shearer and Ken Rosewall was a master of this in there later years,so was Sampras-much better all around game with less run around, in other words get control of the rally earlier and put the ball away as soon as possible by what your opponent has given you little to nothing. :shock:
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2012
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  41. Wilander Fan

    Wilander Fan Hall of Fame

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    I watched him play Basel and I cant imagine what could be motivating him anymore. No one could ask anything more of the guy. I am guessing Fed still plays for similar reasons as Rafa and countless other former stars...contract commitment to sponsors. I suspect there are huge penalties in those Nike/Rolex endorsements for a player retiring.
     
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  42. Daized

    Daized Rookie

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    Remind me of Murray's H2H in slams against Fed :-?.
     
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  43. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

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    really ?

    Does that explain why sampras won a grand total of 0, yes, ZERO titles b/w wimbledon 2000 and USO 2002 ? and ended years 2011 and 2012 at no10 and no 13 ?

    federer in 2011-2012 has been by some distance better than sampras at the same age ....
     
    #43

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