When will Fed lose #1?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by jamesblakefan#1, Apr 4, 2008.

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When will Fed lose #1 spot (if ever)?

  1. After Wimbledon

    6 vote(s)
    15.0%
  2. Before US Open (US Open Series)

    5 vote(s)
    12.5%
  3. After US Open

    8 vote(s)
    20.0%
  4. 2009

    12 vote(s)
    30.0%
  5. After Shanghai

    2 vote(s)
    5.0%
  6. Never! Fed will always be #1!

    7 vote(s)
    17.5%
  1. jamesblakefan#1

    jamesblakefan#1 G.O.A.T.

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    OK, with all the Fed doomsday sayers, put your $ where your mouth is. When exactly will Fed use the #1 spot?
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2008
    #1
  2. Moose Malloy

    Moose Malloy Legend

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    I'm not exactly a numbers cruncher, but if Fed loses early in Monte Carlo & Hamburg, & Nadal wins both, wouldn't he pass Fed?
     
    #2
  3. jamesblakefan#1

    jamesblakefan#1 G.O.A.T.

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    I wasn't sure about the #'s and stuff, as far as before the French. Some help?
     
    #3
  4. PROTENNIS63

    PROTENNIS63 Hall of Fame

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    Not exactly. Nadal won every tournament in the clay season except Hamburg. There, he got the finals. So he has a lot of points to defend. But Fed also has a lot of points to defend.
     
    #4
  5. dima

    dima Banned

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    Well Federer is playing in Estoril so he'll gain some points from that.
     
    #5
  6. jamesblakefan#1

    jamesblakefan#1 G.O.A.T.

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    Yeah, but not nearly as much as he'd lose if he stays in the slump. Estoril is only 200 for a win. Hamburg win was 500. The main tourneys for him are FO and Wimby. He can't go out early at either of those.
     
    #6
  7. Gerry

    Gerry New User

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    Well, if my numbers are correct, Nadal could clinch #1 spot if he wins Miami, Monte Carlo and Hamburg and Federer loses in SF in both clay tournaments (unless he wins Estoril).

    In my personal opinion i don't think Nadal can win all 3... but math says he can reach the top before FO.

    G.
     
    #7
  8. jlan

    jlan Rookie

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    Federer isn't gonna lose his #1 ranking any time soon.

    Nadal has 2650 points to defend in the upcoming clay court season. He will gain no points if he successfully defends his titles. He'll only gain 150 points if he wins Hamburg.
     
    #8
  9. fastdunn

    fastdunn Legend

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    that's about 700 points. maybe not quite enough. maybe if nadal wins miami. if you include FO, it was about 1700 points, when I checked last time.

    if federer has horrible clay season (including FO) and nadal defends everything, this could happen in about 2 months.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2008
    #9
  10. Gerry

    Gerry New User

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    Right now Nadal is 845 points behind Federer, but that will change next monday and, if Nadal wins Miami, the difference will be 520. So it would be possible for Nadal to claim #1 spot if Federer fails to defend the MC final points (350) and Hamburg win points (500).

    The way Federer has been playing makes possible for him to lose #1 before FO... but again, i don't think Nadal will win al 3 tournaments.

    G.
     
    #10
  11. fantom

    fantom Hall of Fame

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    Federer just won a bunch of points from his performances in IW and Miami, right?
     
    #11
  12. Gerry

    Gerry New User

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    I believe he won 270 points total (220 IW, 50 MIA).

    G.
     
    #12
  13. Rickson

    Rickson G.O.A.T.

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    2011......
     
    #13
  14. fastdunn

    fastdunn Legend

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    that will be when US housing market will hit the bottom.
     
    #14
  15. asintu

    asintu Professional

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    after Rome
     
    #15
  16. gerikoh

    gerikoh Semi-Pro

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    roddick will beat fed in clay lol
     
    #16
  17. ksbh

    ksbh Banned

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    Earlier, the better!

     
    #17
  18. johnny ballgame

    johnny ballgame Professional

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    He'll lose it the week of Hamburg.
     
    #18
  19. Ryoma Kun

    Ryoma Kun Semi-Pro

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    i personally think it is when djokovich becomes #1, nadal will never be able to do it
     
    #19
  20. WhiskeyEE

    WhiskeyEE Legend

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    I'll guess that he loses it after the French.
     
    #20
  21. fastdunn

    fastdunn Legend

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    fed played only 16 tournaments. if the race gets tight, he can play a few more tournaments after us open.
     
    #21
  22. Blade0324

    Blade0324 Hall of Fame

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    I have to agree with one of the other posters it will be just after Nadal wins the French. Roger will regain after wimby and depending on how well Djoker plays the clay court season, and wimby he could take #1 sometime during the US open series. I think we could see 3 mens hold the #1 spot this year. Not sure who I see ending the year at #1 yet though.
     
    #22
  23. iriraz

    iriraz Hall of Fame

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    I wouldn`t go that far.Roddick doesn`t usually compete in the masters events like Monte Carlo or Rome and even Hamburg.
    For Roddick on clay means:Houston,Poertschach and in best case scenario round 3 at Roland Garros
     
    #23
  24. Rob_C

    Rob_C Hall of Fame

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    U guys are forgetting that Nadal won Rome also, another 500 pts. Fed lost early there to Volandri last year.
     
    #24
  25. daddy

    daddy Legend

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    This is the deal. After the Miami he heads back to europe and plays in this order :

    Estoril - no points to defend
    Monte Carlo - final to defend 350 pts
    Rome - quarters to defend 75 pts
    Hamburg - defender of the throne 500pts
    Roland Garros - final to defend, 700pts

    Nadal on the other hand defends :

    Monte Carlo - win to defend 500pts
    Barcelona - win to defend 300pts
    Rome - win to defend 500pts
    Hamburg - final to defend 350pts
    Roland Garros - win to defend 1000 pts

    Clearly Fedrer will have at least 520 points in hand before the clay ( if Nadal wins in Miami ). He will play Estoril to gain a bit more points - whatever he gets is good for him. Then what is working for him is his bad result in Rome and that alone makes me think he will not lose his ranking soon, he will gain in Estoril and Rome just enough so that he can not lose the spot in Monte Carlo and Hamburg. He could possibly lose it after the RG if he is knocked out early, which is hard to believe at this point. Nadals wins in last year does not suit him now, since he has to replicate the performance, Barcelona most notably one tourney he must enter and win if he wants to take a shot at being nr1 before RG.

    Conclusion - IMO Federer stays nr1 into the clay season and unless he is knocked out in RG in the first week, he stays nr1 after, surely until the Canada and Cincinatti or more likely until the USO.
     
    #25

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