Who do you think has the toughest draw out of the top 4 players?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by All-rounder, Jan 17, 2009.

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Who has the toughest Draw out of the top 4 players

  1. Roger federer

    43.8%
  2. Rafael Nadal

    37.5%
  3. Novak djokovic

    12.5%
  4. Andy Murray

    6.3%
  1. All-rounder

    All-rounder Legend

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    I say Federer he plays seppi ranked 34 in the first round then carlose moya in the second and then safin in third :shock:
     
    #1
  2. thejoe

    thejoe Hall of Fame

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    Sure, Federer's draw looks tough on paper, but he doesn't have Nadal or Murray in his side of the draw. Those are pretty much the only two players that have consistently troubled him over the past 6 months.
     
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  3. ttbrowne

    ttbrowne Hall of Fame

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    Federer by far has a tougher road.
     
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  4. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Moya was beaten last week by Dewarman, 2nd round of Chennai ( before that he lost to Petzchner), Safin has lost in first or second round of every single tournament he's played in the last months (except Moscow). You guys totally crack me up. "My lord, I beseech you to grant Fed as much skills and talent as Dewarman, just for this once, pleaaaaaase". I rest my case :rolleyes:
     
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  5. thejoe

    thejoe Hall of Fame

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    Yes, and Nadal has it really tough against Rochus in the first round :roll: Sure, the strength of Federer's draw is overrated, but its still stronger than Nadal's section.
     
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  6. JankovicFan

    JankovicFan Semi-Pro

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    I thought Hewitt had it especially tough in his circumstances, going against Gonzalez in the first round. Actually, I could say it is Gonzalez who is in for a scrap.

    I would add that if Tsonga is out, everything changes, certainly in Murray's favor, who may well be the favorite already.
     
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  7. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Ah you forgot to mention the guys AFTER Rochus: Tursunov, Gasquet, Gonzalez, Hewitt, Monfils, Karlovic, Simon: all out of the top 50 tools, qualif or claycourt specialists, yeah!
     
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  8. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    I think Tsonga retired in Sydney so as not to have to skip the AO. His ranking would plummet, I think he will play by hook or by crook, he'll be there.
     
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  9. TheMusicLover

    TheMusicLover Legend

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    Why is there no option "it is a reasonably fair and equally difficult draw for all of them"?
     
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  10. chlsmo

    chlsmo Semi-Pro

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    I say Federer is the favorite, so logic says that Djokovich will have the toughest draw.
     
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  11. R_Federer

    R_Federer Professional

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    You complain about Safin and yet you include Hewitt for Nadal? :shock::shock::shock:
     
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  12. matchmaker

    matchmaker Hall of Fame

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    I really don't understand some posters who talk about the strength of Fed's draw. Every independent article I have read until now, and I mean in the media, not on a fanboyish tennis forum, agrees Nadal has an incredibly tough draw with Murray on his side and also Tsonga and Monfils, both of whom beat him on HC.

    While Fed has a tentative Safin, and a not so in shape Djoko in his half. Surely he would have signed for that.

    Nadal has the toughest draw, Murray the easiest.
     
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  13. R_Federer

    R_Federer Professional

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    Djokovic is 3rd and defending champion. Murray just has a bandwagon. Tsonga is injured. Monfils is only average on hard court in my opinion.
     
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  14. Holly

    Holly Banned

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    Tennis.com has the same poll. Nadal is the winner over there.
     
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  15. R_Federer

    R_Federer Professional

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    Not anymore, Federer is also in the lead there :twisted::):oops:.
     
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  16. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    In Australia definitely, no easy match vs Hewitt at AO (he feels like he has to be a hero there, remember his 5 setter against Baghdatis last year?). I'm not saying Hewitt can win but no easy match for sure.
     
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  17. R_Federer

    R_Federer Professional

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    Remember Safin as the ACTUAL champion at the AO?
     
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  18. All-rounder

    All-rounder Legend

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    very true i have to agree there are players on nadal section that can beat him where as players for federer are players that have passed there prime and have very little chance to trouble Fed but my concern is novak as he has the easiest draw and is defending champion also murray has a easy draw
     
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  19. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    "a bandwagon"? since July 2008? Djokovic has been playing like crap recently, it would take a miracle for him to pull anything special at AO. (He can do it but I don't know how high the odds are...)
     
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  20. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Oh you mean 20 years ago? Please wake up from your dream. It's time for "back to the present".
     
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  21. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Finally a sensible post, thank you for being so rational (hard to come across these days...), and don't forget Simon in your list of players that could do serious damage.
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2009
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  22. thejoe

    thejoe Hall of Fame

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    He isn't being rational, and you're only saying he is because he is agreeing with you.

    Judging by this comment, I can see you've been watching tennis for 5, maybe 10 minutes?

    If you knew anything, then you would know that Safin can still beat anyone.
     
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  23. All-rounder

    All-rounder Legend

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    i agree he has been playing terrible first blaming his new racket then blaming the weather?? (how can you blame the weather it isn't like it was raining in Australia) and as for his chances on defending his title its almost the same as sharapova's and remember she is injured and is not taking part I seriously doubt he can find his form in less than 48 hours
     
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  24. Sensible and rational= anything making Nadal look awesome?
     
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  25. Do you honestly think Djokovic isn't going to fight incredibly hard for something as important as the defense of his title and points?
     
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  26. matchmaker

    matchmaker Hall of Fame

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    Yes, I forgot about Simon, thank you for reminding me.

    This whole discussion looks like an attempt for Federer worshippers to convince people that Fed has a difficult draw, when he hasn't. It is as if they are looking for excuses beforehand.

    Every single article I have read about the draw until now consideres Fed's draw a lot easier than Nadal's. Only certain posters seem to see things differently here. With all due respect for Federer, in his prime he would have just strolled through this draw.

    Fed has a 9-2 H2H versus Safin, only wins for Safin being the famous AO victory and a home tournament in Moscow. Apart from that Fed has been all over him. And Safin is now way past his prime.

    Against Djoko, Fed leads 7-2, only victories for Djoko being the AO victory and the Canadian Masters. Djokovic is in a slump since the beginning of the year. And Fed beat him at the USO last time.

    Now against Murray he is 2-5 down (even six if you add the recent exhibition tournament). Murray is on a high and is the man to beat for the moment.

    Against Gilles Simon he is 0-2 down.

    So if I were Fed and could choose the draw myself, I would choose to have the first two in my draw and the last two on the other half, because of course it is a GS tournament and you are bound to run into some kind of good player, you can't have it all. Fed fans are maybe expecting Fed to get a draw without any top seeds in it before he gets to the final. Wake up, that is impossible.

    The only little thing for Fed that could be worrying is the presence of Nalbandian on his side. They have quite a balance H2H: 10-8 for Fed. But he can only meet Nalby in the SF, according to the draw I checked. We all know that Nalby is not at his best in GS tournaments, so he will probably be eliminated by that time.

    So, explain to me know what is so difficult about Fed's draw?
     
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  27. R_Federer

    R_Federer Professional

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    Safin is past his prime but somehow Hewitt isn't. Makes so much sense.
     
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  28. veritech

    veritech Hall of Fame

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    keep in mind that tsonga is suffering from injuries and monfils has only been in 1 slam SF his whole career. and nadal is 3-1 with monfils.
     
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  29. David L

    David L Hall of Fame

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    Didn't he knock Djokovic out of Wimbledon last year?

    Also, when one talks of a good or bad draw, the general idea is not to look at the complete road all the way to the final, otherwise everyone's draw is tough then. A good or bad draw usually refers to your quarter, not your semi-final and final opponent, both of whom will generally be about the same level if seeding goes to plan. In the early rounds, on the other, there's much more room for differences with the potential first couple of opponents ranging from top 40 to top 400.
     
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  30. veritech

    veritech Hall of Fame

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    not just past his prime, but fresh out of hip surgery. if he was to meet nadal, it would be an easy straight setter.
     
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  31. edberg505

    edberg505 Legend

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    Oh you forgot to throw in the world class Serra! I guess the AO must really like seeing Serra get his skull beat in as he beat Serra like a rented mule there last year. Nadal blitzed both Hewitt and Gonzalez at the Olympics. And Gasquet, surely you can't be serious Gasquet just packs up his gear and is ready to go after the first hard fought set which he inevitably loses. As for Karlovic and Simon, I'd be shocked if they even made past the 3rd round.
     
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  32. matchmaker

    matchmaker Hall of Fame

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    But who says Hewitt is a major obstacle for Nadal? I don't really see Hewitt as a problem. One cannot expect anyone to have a draw at GS tournaments without any noteworty players in it. The difficulties for Nadal lie further on. Possible match ups with Simon, Tsonga, Monfils, Murray.

    Truth be said thoug, Hewitt has a 4-4 H2H with Nadal, but the four victories were in Hewitt's prime and Nadal's first year on the circuit. From there on Nadal always won, except when he retired once at Queen's, probably because he did not really care.

    If you look up Nadal's head-to-heads against all the other players, actually he has a winning record against virtually anyone:

    The ones on Nadal's side
    Murray: 5-1
    Simon: 2-1
    Tsonga: 2-1
    Monfils: 3-1

    The ones on Federer's side
    Djokovic: 10-4
    Safin: 1-0
    Federer: 12-6
    The only exception is Nalbandian, with whom he trails a 0-2 H2H

    Now, it is Nadal's merit that his H2Hs look far more impressibe than Federer's. That does not mean he cannot get a difficult draw. You have to take into account that Nadal has proven to be vulnerable on HC, especially by the hands of Murray, Tsonga, Simon and Monfils, all of which he faces on his side of the draw. Granted, on HC Djoko and Nalby are also big obstacles for him, but you know that mathematically you can not have all the seeds on your side of the draw.
     
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  33. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    That is not at all what I said. I said AO is very special for Hewitt and lately Hewitt has been swinging -and not faring bad I must say- in the quarter-finals of an ATP tournament whereas Safin, remind me where Safin has been those last few weeks... on a tennis court? No?......Ah yes I remember now! In some bar brawl! Awesome preparation for AO if he intends to hit the ball with his fist or knock out the opponent before the end of the match...
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2009
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  34. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Yes but the one is very recent (the last match actually) and the semi was last year, Monfils is a young player on the rise, that's not something to ever take lightly.
     
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  35. No.

    True, but don't forget veroniquem. She's doing the same for Nadal.

    I'm not sure about Gonzalez (he could possibly do some damage), but you're spot on about Gasquet (even though he's one of my favorite players...hopefully he gets his **** together) and you're definitely right about Karlovic and Simon.
     
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  36. R_Federer

    R_Federer Professional

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    Is Del Potro to be taken lightly though? Remember his run late last year, which was mostly on hard courts.
     
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  37. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Gasquet and Nadal's matches are always extremely commpetitive and obviously you didn't watch the Olympics final because the match was also ultra competitive with very long disputed games (especially in the first set). You can sneer as much as you like those are not easy opponents in the first week of a slam.
     
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  38. DarthFed

    DarthFed Hall of Fame

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    If the Draws were switched.....Djoko would become Dangerous...Safin would become dangerous, basically everyone on feds side of the draw will immediately become giant killers

    Those on Nadals side of the draw sans Murray will become scrubs

    It goes both ways in this topic

    There is no such thing as an easy draw....the players make the draws look easy

    Not only that...but an upset could occur at any time...just use last wimbledon as example...the majority of the top seeds were out before the 4th round

    Had they been on feds side they would be scrubs no?

    Hmm i've reached 666 posts...bad omen
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2009
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  39. R_Federer

    R_Federer Professional

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    Upsets will definitely happen. They always do. The chances for Nadal, Federer, Djoker, and Murray all reaching the semis is very slim.
     
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  40. TheMusicLover

    TheMusicLover Legend

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    Yep. People seem to think that the top 4 seeds always all make the semis. Well, eh - NO. Did anyone expect to see Tsonga there last year, let alone making the finals? Not too many, I'd say!
    Even more: Nadal's draw at the AO 2008 was considered to be a rather easy one by most...

    So for once and for all time: whining about initial draws is just stupid.
     
    #40
  41. matchmaker

    matchmaker Hall of Fame

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    What you say is very true. Fans of the number 1 and 2 players will always try to convince people that their player has the worst draw, so it looks all the more admirable when he wins. The seeding and draw systems see to it that in every half of the draw there is the same amount of good players, so one should not complain about that.

    In a way many Fed fans can always argue that Nadal has an easy draw now, because he has positive head to heads with virtually anyone except Nalbandian.

    But the same amounts for Nadal fans.

    In this case I feel Fed might be a bit lucky to avoid Murray before the final, but that is about it. To win the whole thing, you have to win all your matches, so you are bound to bump into good players you will have to overcome.

    A more interesting question is who will be the surprise finalist we have usually been having at the AO over the past few years. It would be improbable for Nadal and Fed to see each other in the final, IMO.
     
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  42. R_Federer

    R_Federer Professional

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    Completely agreed. There will probably be a big up setter here as well. That too not some upcommer that we are talking about: Monflis, Tsonga, Del Potro etc. but someone completely out of the blue.

    So just sit back and watch the tournament. I guess there is just nothing else to talk about right now for the next day and half so people are getting on a debate about "who has an easy draw".
     
    #42
  43. edmondsm

    edmondsm Legend

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    You know, I am very suspiscious about that Niemenin match. I don't think Djokovic wanted to be in the final of a tourny the week before he defended a slam title. I have a feeling that he went into that match with Jarkko hmmm let's say he wasn't going to bust his rear to win it. I think Djokovic will be fine.
     
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  44. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    I'd say Nadal has the toughest draw this time.I like Fed's draw,Safin can be dangerous early on but Fed certainly has enough experience playing against him and seems in good enough form and match tough to beat him without many problems(although one should never count Safin out but Fed knows that).Djokovic can be very tough in the semis but Fed has beaten him the last time they played on HC and let's face it,Djokovic is in worse form than Murray at the moment and has trouble finding his game right now.Although of course he'll be very motivated to defend his title here so I certainly wouldn't count him out,maybe he'll found last year's form as the tournament goes on.

    Oh yes,those "evil" Fed worshippers who always whine about draws and make excuses,I'm sure no other group of fans in this forum displays similar behaviour.Fed is my favourite player but that makes me a Fed fan,not a worshipper.

    Prime Fed strolled through most draws.If we're talking 2005-2006 Fed,he barely lost matches at all.

    Mostly agree,but Safin can still be dangerous to face in early rounds.This is also presumably his last year on tour so he'll also be pretty motivated.

    H2H doesn't always tell the whole story.True Fed beat Novak last time they met at USO but it was a closer match than the final with Murray and Djokovic beat Fed in straights last year at AO so he proved he can beat Fed in a major,not a lot of current players can say that.

    Yes,Murray is current in-form/hot/high on confidence player and has a nice streak of wins against Fed at the moment so I agree.

    Simon is not a good best of 5 match player,he never got past the 3d round in any slam in his whole career.So far he proved he can upset the big guns in best of 3,best of 5 matches are a whole different animal.I don't like his chances of upsetting any of of top 4 in slams.

    Nope,don't expect that.Slams were always about beating the best of the best.

    I think people forget that Nalbandian was pretty consistent in slams aside from the last 2 years,he reached the semis of all 4 slams and was pretty much a lock for quarters or semis during 2003-2006 period.Although I have to agree that last 2 years his performances in slams were plain bad,especially last year.

    However,Nalbo started the year very well winning Sidney(don't remember him ever winning AO warm-up aside from this year)and seems to be in good form so I expect him to go deep here.I think he'll get past Roddick but lose to either Djokovic in quarters or Fed in semis.His H2H against Fed is good but he hasn't beaten Fed in a slam since 2003 so I'd like Fed's chances against him if they meet in semis but he always poses a danger to Federer.
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2009
    #44
  45. edberg505

    edberg505 Legend

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    Hahaha, that's just too funny. Do you think that Gasquet even has a remote chance at beating Nadal in a best of 5 set match? Yeah, it's competitive, for the first set, after that it's complete destruction. Tell you what, if Gasquet beats Nadal in the AO this year you can come back here and say I told you so. Hell, if he even get's a set I'd be flabbergasted. Sure I saw the Olympics and I didn't really think the 1st set was all that competitive. Now the 2nd set, which was a tiebreak, was more competitive.
     
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  46. DarthFed

    DarthFed Hall of Fame

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    Djoko's last match was a chance to be # 2..he seems to lose every decisive match in regards to overtaking fed..(and last year nadal)
     
    #46
  47. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Unfortunately,have to agree.Still,really love his game though.That beauty of a BH,smooth movement,good hands at the net.When he's on,he's a joy to watch,like that match against Fed in Monte Carlo 2005.
     
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  48. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Yes, the quarter, that's exactly what I was referring to.
     
    #48
  49. TennezSport

    TennezSport Hall of Fame

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    Really...............

    Oh, you mean like Rafa did last year getting to the semis without facing any top players, I see :twisted:

    Look the draw looks to be very balanced and difficult for both players, just at different times in the tourny. However, this time Rafa has to face some actual talent that can definitely hurt him on HC. Welcome to #1; Fed did it for 4.5 years let's see what the KoC can do. Very interesting 2K9.

    Cheers, TennezSport :cool:
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2009
    #49
  50. edberg505

    edberg505 Legend

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    He makes things harder than they have to be for himself. If he would just play closer to the baseline he'd make things alot easier for himself. I noticed he has been trying to come to the net more looking at his past few matches. Hopefully he'll keep that up.
     
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