Who is the best bet for the Australian Open?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by klementine, Jan 6, 2009.

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Who is your bet for the Australian Open?

Poll closed Jan 20, 2009.
  1. Andy Murray

    32 vote(s)
    34.4%
  2. Andy Roddick

    3 vote(s)
    3.2%
  3. Roger Federer

    38 vote(s)
    40.9%
  4. Ernests Gulbis

    2 vote(s)
    2.2%
  5. Novak Djokovic

    7 vote(s)
    7.5%
  6. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

    1 vote(s)
    1.1%
  7. Rafael Nadal

    8 vote(s)
    8.6%
  8. Other

    2 vote(s)
    2.2%
  1. klementine

    klementine Hall of Fame

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    Here is what Vegas says...

    Andy Murray +400

    Andy Roddick +4000

    David Nalbandian +4000

    Ernests Gulbis +4000

    Fernando Gonzalez +7500

    Gael Monfils +12500

    Gilles Simon +5000

    James Blake +10000

    Jo-Wilfried Tsonga +1500

    Juan Martin Del Potro +2500

    Lleyton Hewitt +10000

    Marcos Baghdatis +10000

    Marin Cilic +10000

    Nikolay Davydenko +5000

    Novak Djokovic +450

    Rafael Nadal +300

    Richard Gasquet +10000

    Roger Federer +180

    Tomas Berdych +12500

    zx Field (Any Other Player) +1000
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2009
    #1
  2. GameSampras

    GameSampras Banned

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    At this point.. I would have to put my money on Fed to be honest though I did say Murray earlier but I renig thinking about it. Murray is still unproven in the big time. Though he would be my second choice.
     
    #2
  3. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    So Federer is the favorite in Vegas if I interpret the odds correctly?
     
    #3
  4. matchmaker

    matchmaker Hall of Fame

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    Well, I'd say Murray's chances are as good as Nadal's and maybe even as Fed's. Then again, I do not understand why they consider Murray (400) as a more probable winner than Djokovic (450), who is a former winner and higher on the rankings.
    Gulbis has quite a good rating for someone who is rather low on the rankings.
    Anyway, these people are specialists at determining the odds, so overall, I feel the appreciations are more or less correct.
    The one thing I would not do is estimate Federer's chances that high. I really feel that he goes into the AO with no better chances than Murray or Djokovic.
     
    #4
  5. ThugNasty

    ThugNasty Guest

    i would say a tossup between federer and murray
     
    #5
  6. GameSampras

    GameSampras Banned

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    Im sorry.. But how is Nadal a favorite exactly at the AO? He could easily be taken out by a Del Potro, Gulbis, Djoker, Murray, Simon, Tsonga etc. Just wondering. Hes a good HC player but not great. Maybe he has just as good of a chance as Murry or Fed. But you certainly have to favor Djoker, Murray, and Fed before Nadal. We would have to see the draws first before forming a definite conclusion
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2009
    #6
  7. klementine

    klementine Hall of Fame

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    It is an 'american' style vegas proposition, the actual lines. So federer is +180/100 or 1.8/1 favorite to win, Nadal at +300 is at 3 to 1 , according to the odds makers. If you want to pay off your car, Tomas Berdych is +12500 to win or 125 to 1, so for every $1 you put in you get back $125.
     
    #7
  8. klementine

    klementine Hall of Fame

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    If Tsonga is completely healthy, I would go for him, but I just don't see him lasting with his style of play, like Blake, all out for 3setters but not enough for the slams' 5setters, just don't see him enduring, strictly power, although he was in a zone last year. My vote is for Ernests Gulbis. Have been watching him gain confidence, still 20 years old. I think this will be his year.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2009
    #8
  9. mrDamien

    mrDamien Hall of Fame

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    Rafael Nadal and Lleyton Hewitt in the final.
     
    #9
  10. gj011

    gj011 Banned

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    With these odds, Djokovic.
     
    #10
  11. Nadal_Freak

    Nadal_Freak Banned

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    Nadal or Murray will win it.
     
    #11
  12. ndtennis

    ndtennis Rookie

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    it will be one of the top 3 to win for sure... but its harder to predict who is going to break out this open
     
    #12
  13. NamRanger

    NamRanger G.O.A.T.

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    Safest bet is Federer, if you want to be risky and hope to get some money, put your money on either Nadal or Murray.



    If you are ballsy, I'd pick Nalbandian.
     
    #13
  14. bladepdb

    bladepdb Professional

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    AO is actually a better ground for Nadal than typical hard courts. The surface is nothing ilke it is at Cincinnati or USO. He performed well on both of thsoe venues, in addition to good performances on other hard courts last year.

    So to call Nadal out just because this is a hard court is a pretty ridiculous idea :)

    The surface at AO is, if I remember right, Rebound Ace right?
     
    #14
  15. Nadal_Freak

    Nadal_Freak Banned

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    It's definitely not Federer based on the last 52 weeks. Djokovic, Murray, and Nadal have had better results on the hard courts. Murray did much better the second half of the year and Djokovic/Nadal had the best consistent results all year. Federer is the 4th option.
     
    #15
  16. thejoe

    thejoe Hall of Fame

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    I agree that Nadal is one of the likely contenders, and regardless of surface, he now has the aura to beat players almost before they go on court, but using the US Open is a bad example. He had such an easy draw, that I view his semi-final loss to Murray as "falling at the first hurdle" if you will.

    I'm not so sure he is fourth. I think Murray, Federer and Djokovic are on a par as it were, with Murray perhaps just in front. I picked Federer, but I may be letting my heart rule my head. Nadal is just not as much of a threat on a hard-court as those three, regardless of last years results.
     
    #16
  17. Nadal_Freak

    Nadal_Freak Banned

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    Yeah just ignore last years results? Nadal beat Djokovic the last time they played on hardcourts. Murray might be the favorite but Nadal I would pick second and possibly favorite since the Australian Open is slightly slower then the US Open and he has been on a tear in Doha so far.
     
    #17
  18. thejoe

    thejoe Hall of Fame

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    But he has played Santoro and Beck. I'm ignoring last year's results because it was hardly business as usual for Federer, and Djokovic went walkabout for a good portion of the year. Murray also only became a factor over the last few months of the season. Impartial tennis fans would pick both Djokovic and Federer over Nadal on a hardcourt and you know it, you won't just admit it.
     
    #18
  19. seffina

    seffina G.O.A.T.

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    I would say based on current form and recent results, it would be Murray, Federer, Djokovic, and then Nadal.

    I think Nadal looks great in his first two matches. He looks very sharp and I hope it will translate into his first hard court slam, but Fed won the last HC slam, Murray has been consistently better than Nadal in the past few months, Nole won the year end Masters Cup (granted no Nadal or Fed) and he is the defending champ.

    Not that it matters to me as I'm not the betting kind. It would be awesome for all four to make it to the semis.
     
    #19
  20. Nadal_Freak

    Nadal_Freak Banned

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    Nadal would beat Federer if they played at the Australian Open. It is a matchup issue and on slower courts even worse for Federer. Djokovic and Murray would be Nadal's toughest matchups. Djokovic has been going out early a lot. Murray is probably the favorite but I think Nadal can beat him on these slower hard courts of Australia. Similar to Toronto. We'll see.
     
    #20
  21. thejoe

    thejoe Hall of Fame

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    I could see it happening, but I would still put my money on Federer. I see where you are coming from about the matchup issue. What would the plexicushion do to the bounce of the ball? I know it would be fairly consistent, but would it bounce high, or not so much? Because if Nadal's ball doesn't bounce high on the backhand side, that is his main tactic shot out of the air. Could Federer do a Gonzalez and neutralise the threat on the backhand wing?
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2009
    #21
  22. NamRanger

    NamRanger G.O.A.T.

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    Last year it was a slow and low bouncing court, which negated all of Nadal's weapons. Thus why Tsonga absolutely obliterated him.
     
    #22
  23. NamRanger

    NamRanger G.O.A.T.

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    Yes, just discount the man who won the USO beating both Djokovic and Murray, and has won 13 GS. He's not a favorite at all; he's possibly just the best HC player, ever.
     
    #23
  24. Nadal_Freak

    Nadal_Freak Banned

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    Tsonga won because he couldn't miss. Yeah it isn't the highest bouncing courts but I think high enough to give Fed problems. Tsonga has a two-handed backhand and loves the high ball. Nadal just had a horrible day and he is a better player now btw.
     
    #24
  25. thejoe

    thejoe Hall of Fame

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    The way Tsonga played leads me to believe that Nadal at his best still would have been helpless, because as you say, Tsonga loves the high ball, and he couldn't miss that day. What exactly did Nadal do so badly?
     
    #25
  26. Nadal_Freak

    Nadal_Freak Banned

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    Nadal just didn't play aggressively and relied on getting the ball high on Tsonga. Something that didn't bother him. He let Tsonga dictate and his serve looked more attackable at that time. Different motion that wasn't as good.
     
    #26
  27. vmosrafa08

    vmosrafa08 Semi-Pro

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    Andy Murray- Strong performance against Federer and Nadal. 2008 has been a great year for him, and 2009 certainly will. He doesn't have experience however, so he most likely will not win AO 2009. He will get far, though.

    Andy Roddick- Andy Roddick has had good years, but it is unlikely that he will win AO 2009. It is one of his last chances to win a grand slam, but his mentality and game need to improve.

    Roger Federer- Being one Grand Slam behind Sampras, he definitely has a lot of motivation. However, he recently lost to Murray (as Nadal did), and lost to Djokovic in AO 2008. He will definitely get to the semi finals or the finals, and has a possibility of winning.

    Ernests Gulbis- He ended 2008 as no. 53. He recently beat Djokovic for a variety of reasons, but he does not have a real chance of winning. He does not have the experience, or the game needed to win a grand slam.

    Novak Djokovic- He won AO 2008, which makes him one of the best canditates. He also won the Masters Cup series in Shanghai. His loss to Gulbis might be a setback, but he definitely can win the AO again in 2009. His new gear (racquet and shoes) are definitely a factor. He has to get used to them, and actually win.

    Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- Lost to Djokovic in 2008, however, he beat Djokovic a couple of times after that. He says that he can possibly be no. 1 in 2009, and that he is ready for a great season. He has a lot of confidence, and a lot of skill. He can definitely get far in AO 2009.

    Rafael Nadal- Lost to Tsonga in 2008. He is very weak on hard courts, and it is very unlikely that he will win. He needs to flatten out his forehand to be successful on hard courts. He will get far in AO 2009, but he will not win.

    Other- There are many talented tennis players out there, who definitely have a chance to get far in AO 2009, or even win it. However, the people listed above definitely have a greater chance of winning.
     
    #27
  28. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    About Murray, one doesn't have experience until one gets a big win and starts building up on that. I think Murray is ready for a big win.
    About Tsonga, he really said he was going to be #1? Wow, getting ahead of himself isn't he with his 2 titles in tow? Good luck to him, he's sure gonna need truckloads of it!
    About Nadal, "very weak" may be a tad exaggerated. I'm sure a lot of players would love to be so weak on hard as to win Indian Wells, Madrid, Toronto, Montreal, Dubai and the Olympics in the course of their career! Last year's semis were his best result so far at AO and USO, no reason to think that he cannot go 1 better in the near future...
     
    #28
  29. bladepdb

    bladepdb Professional

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    I'm not a big Murray fan but I certainly wouldn't discredit him as a player without much experience. Sure compared to Nadal and Fed who have had so many Slam finals, he pales in comparison, but look at Djokovic. His highlight of 07 was his finals appearance at USO, and it showed when he played those big points poorly. Murray in 08 is comparable, IMO, to Djoker in 07 (I'll be honest, I don't know Djoker's highlights in 07 except a couple of Masters titles and the USO finals and semis at Wimby).

    So, by that logic, Djoker was pretty inexperienced going into AO 08, but look what he did there....

    My point? If Djoker won AO 08, Murray has a terrific chance of taking AO 09.
     
    #29
  30. kelz

    kelz Professional

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    Federer. Murray's got a pretty strong chance if his draw isn't too bad.
     
    #30
  31. Gugafan

    Gugafan Hall of Fame

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    The reason I choose Murray is because he has dominated the top 3 recently, stringing consecutive wins against each player.

    In addition, his game shows the greatest improvement in that he has been able to 'add weapons' to an already solid game that he possesses. For example, Murrays serve has become bigger allowing him to win many more cheap points even moreso then Federer and Djokovic.

    Providing Murray can hold it together mentally, I cannot see him getting beat at Australia.
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2009
    #31
  32. drakulie

    drakulie Talk Tennis Guru

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    Uhmmm, Federer, Djokovic, Murray, and Tsonga have had better reults than Rafa on hard courts.
     
    #32
  33. P_Agony

    P_Agony Banned

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    There is something in what you say, but you are forgetting one thing - Federer usually plays his best tennis in Australia (aside of 2008). Nadal however is usually gone by the surprise finalist.

    It's a matter of draw though. If Federer has Djokovic in his side I believe Federer goes to the final and wins it, probably against Murray (but possibly Nadal too). However, if Nadal gets Djokovic on his side Federer has a 50% chance to lose in the semis and Nadal has a big chance to go to the final.

    However, if both Murray and Djokovic are in the semis, I like Federer's chances a bit more than Nadal's. Federer can deal with Djokovic, and he's proven he can beat Murray on the big stage.

    I'm ignoring here guys like Del Potro and Tsonga, guys who Federer beat quite easily in Madrid, but Nadal may run into trouble with these guys. Simon, on the other hand, can be fatal for Federer if both of them meet. This is going to be one interesting event, but I don't think a Federer/Nadal final is likely.
     
    #33
  34. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Tsonga won't duplicate that kind of form that easily and Nadal will be better prepared for the challenge.
     
    #34
  35. Rten10

    Rten10 New User

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    I say Federer...his U.S. Open win I'm sure was a huge confidence booster for him and that's what he really needed to stop his Grand Slam slump. As long as he is healthy I think that he'll win.
     
    #35
  36. rosenstar

    rosenstar Professional

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    I say Fed over gulbis, or some other up and coming player in the finals, but it depends on the draw
     
    #36
  37. LordRaceR

    LordRaceR Rookie

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    The odds are pretty bang on. Between top 4, Federer has maybe the best chance if motivated enough and if his doesn’t play against Nadal or Djkokovic, and I think he won’ t have to. After his injures, I doubt that Nadal can go all the way. Djokovic isn’t prepared enough and if he has problems with new racquet, we will be out in the first week. After Fed, Murray has good chance because his recently top form. Other those that, Tsonga, Gulbis, Roddick, Nalbandian etc. have pretty much equal chance.
     
    #37
  38. swedechris

    swedechris Banned

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    nadal may suffer now after losing to monfils but in a 5 set match he will fare better . i think he can make the semis or even the final. win it.. no. fed or murray will take it .
     
    #38
  39. thejoe

    thejoe Hall of Fame

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    THERE IS A SPOILER IN HERE! IF YOU DON'T WANT TO KNOW THE RESULT OF THE NADAL MATCH THEN LOOK AWAY NOW AND DON'T READ THIS POST!

    Yes, but if he meets someone like that (the same way he did today with Monfils) what could he do? I honestly don't think he could have done anything better, or differently against Tsonga. Its the same today, he didn't play badly, and from what I have read, he didn't make many errors at all. If you don't make errors, but still don't win the match, then you have to assume you were beaten by the better player, instead of it being your fault. He could be prepared for it (another Tsonga-esque onslaught), but I don't think he has a plan B, which is why I don't feel he will stay Number 1 for long. As Number 1, you have a target on your back, and you will often meet players who will swing for the fence against you.
     
    #39
  40. TennisLover17

    TennisLover17 Semi-Pro

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    BERDYCHHHHHHHHHH.

    Nah I'd put it on Djoko. Good odds if he defends.
     
    #40
  41. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    What I meant is that you don't play "in the zone" every time. It's the same for Monfils today, he won't always play that well. The second time Tsonga met Rafa on hard, he lost. Also Tsonga'd better pray to not be on Fed's side at AO as Fed has no trouble taking care of Tsonga (as we saw in their last match which wasn't even close). Tennis is very much a question of matchups. Even if Tsonga could upset Nadal again, there are quite a few players that could beat him before that had a chance to happen...
    About the #1, even though Nadal is less regular on hard, he's phenomenal on the other surfaces (grass and clay). That's where a lot of his points come from, for that reason I think he has a good shot at staying #1 especially since IMO in the near future hard court will be dominated by a handful of players and not just one guy (as was the case during Fed's peak years).
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2009
    #41
  42. rommil

    rommil Legend

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    Hardcourts joe. Hardly a spoiler.
     
    #42
  43. Lendl and Federer Fan

    Lendl and Federer Fan Hall of Fame

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    It is going to be Murray all the way. :twisted::)
     
    #43
  44. 1Sampras

    1Sampras New User

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    Federer is by far the clear favorite to win the Ausi open. The only chance for Murray,Nadal,Djoker is if Federer looses in an early round.
     
    #44
  45. edmondsm

    edmondsm Legend

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    Nadal is 4th favorite at best. That guy can lose to anyone hot john-doe at the AO. Just see the last 3 years.
     
    #45
  46. Greenfin Beta

    Greenfin Beta Semi-Pro

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    i think the more interesting question is "who is going to be the surprise finalist?" or is there already a thread on this?
     
    #46
  47. thejoe

    thejoe Hall of Fame

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    I agree to an extent, but you seem to be missing what I am saying. Someone like Murray or Federer tactically have more options. They both have big serves, and they both volley well. They would be able to do things differently against someone on a hot streak. I agree that he has a good shot at staying #1, but I don't feel confident enough to put money on it. I think it all depends on his grass court season. He should dominate the clay-court season like he normally does, but he isn't as unbeatable on grass as he is on clay. If he doesn't retain Wimbledon, he'll struggle to stay #1.
     
    #47
  48. Zaragoza

    Zaragoza Banned

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    Querrey and Fish were playing very well at the USO, they were tough opponents. Fish showed in Indian Wells what he's able to do when he's on fire like he was at the USO. Nadal also made the semis at the AO without dropping a set. He was the most solid player in the hardcourt Slams before the semifinals.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2009
    #48
  49. Zaragoza

    Zaragoza Banned

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    Nadal played badly against Monfils, not even close to an average day. I don't know whom you read but that's the worst I've seen Nadal play in a long time. He has always had some off days at the start of the season. If he can step up his game and regain his Toronto-Beijing form from last year serving well and being aggressive, he stands a chance.
     
    #49
  50. ksbh

    ksbh Banned

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    I very much hope that match-up happens! I'd love to see Federer lay the beatdown on Jo Willy, just as he did the last time they played!

     
    #50

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