Who is the best bet for the Australian Open?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by klementine, Jan 6, 2009.

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Who is your bet for the Australian Open?

Poll closed Jan 20, 2009.
  1. Andy Murray

    32 vote(s)
    34.4%
  2. Andy Roddick

    3 vote(s)
    3.2%
  3. Roger Federer

    38 vote(s)
    40.9%
  4. Ernests Gulbis

    2 vote(s)
    2.2%
  5. Novak Djokovic

    7 vote(s)
    7.5%
  6. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

    1 vote(s)
    1.1%
  7. Rafael Nadal

    8 vote(s)
    8.6%
  8. Other

    2 vote(s)
    2.2%
  1. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Did he really play that badly? I couldn't see the match yesterday but from people's comments I understood that Monfils played the match of his life. Anyway I thought Monfils was the toughest draw in the quarters (for the top seeds), too bad for Nadal.
     
    #51
  2. jaggy

    jaggy G.O.A.T.

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    I dont think Monfils will win but he is a great outside bet.
     
    #52
  3. thejoe

    thejoe Hall of Fame

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    I don't care what you say, Mardy Fish and Sam Querrey do not qualify as hard draws. Nadal was consistent because of his opposition:

    Australian Open:

    Victor Troicki, Florent Serra, Gilles Simon (not playing like the end-of-year Simon), Mathieu (who retired hurt), Nieminen, and then lost to Tsonga in straight sets

    US Open:

    Bjorn Phau, Deheart, Troicki, Querrey, Fish, and then lost to Murray

    He was consistent at the US Open because he didn't play a seeded player until the semi-finals, where he promptly lost. It was the same at the Australian Open, he lost to the first player to provide him any sort of challenge. Sounds like the play of a true hardcourt champion :roll:
     
    #53
  4. Zaragoza

    Zaragoza Banned

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    You sure typed a lot for not caring about what I said.
    AO: Troicki was a dangerous 1st round, Simon was a good player regardless of what you say, Mathieu was being punished by Nadal as usual, Nieminen beat the guy who beat Roddick (where does it leave Roddick then?)

    USO: Troicki beat Roddick one month before the USO and Nadal destroyed him. Querrey liteterally destroyed Berdych at the USO. Fish beat both Blake and Monfils in straight sets, he was on fire at the USO.
    I know you would consider Robredo (5 sets against Djokovic), Andreev (5 sets against Federer) and Melzer (5 sets against Murray) easy opponents if they had played Nadal, typical double standards from Nadal haters.
    Maybe you want to check Federer´s draw in Roland Garros as well.
    Besides that, Nadal beat Djokovic and Murray on hardcourts last year.
    This reminds me those Nadal haters saying that Nadal reached the Wimbledon final in 2006 and 2007 because his draw was a joke and he was lucky. I guess 2008 was a great lesson for them.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2009
    #54
  5. thejoe

    thejoe Hall of Fame

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    "I don't care what you say" was regarding the inevitable excuses that you were going to throw my way, claiming that Troicki etc. pose a real threat. This has nothing to do with his draws at Wimbledon, all I'm saying is that he isn't a hard-court God. I wouldn't consider those above draws tough (Robredo, Andreev etc.), but I would call them bad match-ups stylistically, and form-wise. Nadal did not have difficult draws at the hard-court slams and I can't believe you are maintaining that he did. Sure, Federer didn't have a particularly tough draw at Roland Garros, but I didn't make the comment that he was the most consistent player at the clay-court tournaments before the final, did I?
     
    #55
  6. SempreSami

    SempreSami Hall of Fame

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    Murray is the form player but Federer still has the Grand Slam winning pedigree.
     
    #56
  7. World Beater

    World Beater Hall of Fame

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    murray is the bandwagon favorite.
     
    #57
  8. alienhamster

    alienhamster Hall of Fame

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    I still think Nadal has underperformed at the Aus Open. He does fantastic on slow courts and, keep in mind, he's one of the best (if not THE best) best of 5-set players on tour. He's had a history of being injured or running into a crazy buzzsaw (i.e. Tsonga, who would have beaten anyone playing like that).

    If he's healthy and can avoid any bad early matchups (e.g. Gulbis), I think he's going to win this year.
     
    #58
  9. Oui c'est moi.

    Oui c'est moi. Hall of Fame

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    Have the odds changed (after today's match)?
     
    #59
  10. Leublu tennis

    Leublu tennis Legend

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    I am sure the odds have changed and Murray is looking better.
     
    #60
  11. Tony Sideway

    Tony Sideway Banned

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    Andy Murray for me, playing great....
     
    #61
  12. Sentinel

    Sentinel Talk Tennis Guru

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    Surprise finalist? Federer. And surprise winner, too.

    No way Murray can last 4 or 5 setters. Although, they do get a break every other day, but still ...
     
    #62
  13. Blinkism

    Blinkism Legend

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    Look familiar?

    :lol:

    Bump!
     
    #63
  14. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    At this point the best bet is probably Davydenko.
     
    #64
  15. fps

    fps Legend

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    Aussie Open 2010 final -Murray vs Djokovic.
     
    #65
  16. rafan

    rafan Hall of Fame

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    This sounds exactly like the predictions for last year's AO. I don't think for sure any of us have a clue. Nadal may well get it but there is always the chance he won't after his upset last year. Federer is not playing well at all and Murray is always the main runner but can he deliver this time? We have waited and waited.
     
    #66
  17. fps

    fps Legend

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    :):):):twisted:
     
    #67
  18. Davy_for _GOAT

    Davy_for _GOAT Banned

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    No, Djokovic goes out in the 4th round to Stepanek.

    Ask the experts

     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2010
    #68
  19. namelessone

    namelessone Legend

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    My favourites for AO according to form:

    1)DelPo-sure,we haven't seen him since WTF but with that massive serve and booming forehands he is a definite favourite here. Plus you have to remember that he took Nadal and Fed out so confidence won't be a issue if he meets them. And his stamina has got better

    2)Federer-even though his form doesn't look great right now we all know Fed is a beast at Slams and I have no reason to think that he won't make at least semi's here. And you have to remember that he is playing for bonuses right now,he has achieved most of what he set out to do. Perhaps this relaxed attitude+the importance of a slam will make him play better than in the mickey mouse tournaments.

    3)Djoker-he is a great player on HC,has the weapons for it and we know that he can take it to most HC players. I place him third because I still worry about his stamina in the hot australian sun.

    4)Nadal-he is the reigning champion after that tremendous effort last year but tehnically speaking,HC isn't his thing.Plus,he is just starting to get into his groove right now,he is starting to look like a top10 player unlike the end of last year. If he can avoid the likes of delpo or djoker I can see Rafa making semi's and maybe with a bit of luck maybe even the final,where anything can happen.

    5)Davydenko-king of the three setters it seems. He has beaten Fedal twice in a row so I think he will fancy his chances here but I doubt his five set ability. He is the man to beat right now so it will be a very interesting AO for him.

    6)Murray-he has been out of the spotlight and that might be a good thing for him. He has recovered from his wrist injury and will enjoy his underdog status. He is somewhat of a darkhorse if you will
     
    #69
  20. Telepatic

    Telepatic Legend

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    Hahah, could've gone with some third rounds as well..
     
    #70
  21. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    A couple of points if I may:

    1. Murray has never been THE favourite to win a slam with any bookie, ever. The closest he got was co-fave for a short time with Roger at last year's AO. "Murray is always a slam favourite" is a TW meme with no basis in fact.

    2. Murray has only been in the top 4 since the last quarter of 2008. He has entered 4 slam events since then. So the 'waiting and waiting' you allude to has lasted all of 12 months and 4 events. It's hardly Mandela on Robben Island now is it.
     
    #71
  22. fps

    fps Legend

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    i couldn't possibly put murray below rafa and davydenko. while we know what rafa can do, and he is a great champion, indeed the defending champion, i think that was the best he will ever play on hards and i don't see him doing the same this time, even though it's a slow hard surface. his knees are a doubt still, his confidence is down, he's the dark horse because of all the question marks.

    davydenko hasn't made a slam final, his stamina over 5 sets is unknown after his injury setbacks and being 28 now. maintaining his level for 3-5 sets for 7 matches when he doesn't have that one big shots that can get him out of trouble, a DelPo serve or Fed forehand, is difficult, so I see the semi-finals as being his best possible result.

    murray has made a slam final on hard, unlike davy, and made a semi at wimbledon recently too, plus he's won a lot of tournaments last year and plays his best when coming back from injury, which he will be doing. as long as he's not overtrained in the off-season, i see him as a definite top 4 favourite for the title, and i feel that he has del potro's number if they should meet in the semi-finals.
     
    #72
  23. dlk

    dlk Hall of Fame

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    Looking right now, you gotta say Davy's chances are up there w/Fed/Nadal. I place him above Djokovic, Murray, Tsonga, etc.. in terms of odds to win.
     
    #73
  24. sosa09

    sosa09 Semi-Pro

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    and del potro? i think he is going to win or murray... stupid vegas
     
    #74
  25. chanee

    chanee Banned

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    I thought you dissapeared? Dr. Kalgari. ;)
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2010
    #75
  26. rafan

    rafan Hall of Fame

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    Well he is here in the uk. Its slam fever as far as Murray is concerned/ I don't give a toss what the bookies think. Tennis isn't a horse race
     
    #76
  27. djokovicgonzalez2010

    djokovicgonzalez2010 G.O.A.T.

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    Why is Gulbis in this poll???
     
    #77
  28. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    What I miss in yoour analysis people, is ODDS. Best bet is all about weighing value AND likelyhood. Not just who you think will win.
     
    #78
  29. Blinkism

    Blinkism Legend

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    This thread is from 2009.

    That still doesn't explain how Gulbis got on the poll, I know. I just bumped this thread to illustrate how inaccurate most of the prediction trends are on this site.
     
    #79
  30. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    Predicting is hard. Davydenko of now, was Murray last year. I would probably go with Federer if all odds are even, just because he always goes deep, and delivers something special more often than letting you down in a Slam.
     
    #80
  31. fps

    fps Legend

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    er, the favourite for a tournament is definitely about what the bookies think, because the amount of money put on a player determines who is the favourite. the press have nothing to do with it, he's not getting all this coverage because he's the outright favourite, it's because he might conceivably win a slam and he's british.
     
    #81
  32. JeMar

    JeMar Legend

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    Serendipitous needs something to vote for.
     
    #82
  33. Blinkism

    Blinkism Legend

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    I always go with the mantra "once a champion, always a champion" and that's where the "easy" bets come from.

    So, if we go by that logic- the favorites should be Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and Del Potro

    All proven slam champs with HC slams to their names
     
    #83
  34. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    That's why I stuck a tenner on Rafa @ 6/1 last week - crazy odds IMO.
     
    #84
  35. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Who in the UK makes Murray favourite to win the AO apart from Simon Reed?
     
    #85
  36. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    Those are good odds yes. I think odds are that Federer or Nadal will win. I think I might put some money on both. If one of them wins I'll still make profit.
     
    #86
  37. dlk

    dlk Hall of Fame

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    Call me crazy, but I took the field over Fed/Nadal.
     
    #87
  38. NamRanger

    NamRanger G.O.A.T.

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    You probably should have waited for the draw to be released. If Nadal gets Soderling, Del Potro, Djokovic, or Davydenko in his draw it's very likely he doesn't win the whole thing.
     
    #88
  39. Anaconda

    Anaconda Hall of Fame

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    In terms of profit then Nalbandian, you would get good cash back and Nalbandian has got the game to win. No matter what the draw is.
     
    #89
  40. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    It depends on the odds you get. On most sites atm I think the odds for Rafa and Roger are quite decent, so I think the odds for the field won't be anything spectacular. Me myself I'm probably gonna bet on Fedal over the field.
     
    #90
  41. mandy01

    mandy01 G.O.A.T.

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    Everyone always underestimates Droopy :cry:
     
    #91
  42. NamRanger

    NamRanger G.O.A.T.

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    I took the field this one over Federer/Nadal since the odds are stacked against the field once again fairly badly.
     
    #92
  43. Cesc Fabregas

    Cesc Fabregas Legend

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    Nadal needs to avoid Del Potro and maybe Djokovic but Djoker could welt under the heat again.
     
    #93
  44. Claudius

    Claudius Professional

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    Davydenko!
     
    #94
  45. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

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    You forgot Soderling. Just b/c Rafa beat him in exo. doesn't mean he isn't a threat to him. You seem to forget too quickly...Davy just beat Rafa 24 hrs ago, he's owned Rafa on hardcourt.
     
    #95
  46. Cesc Fabregas

    Cesc Fabregas Legend

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    Forget Davydenko beating Nadal in a slam, its not happening. Davydenko has never beaten anyone of note in a slam, and hasn't been to a slam semi for 3 years. Soderling beat an injured Nadal, no way does Soderling beat a healthy Nadal in a slam.
     
    #96
  47. dlk

    dlk Hall of Fame

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    I see your reasoning, but would you say Davy is not now playing the best in his career? Or do you believe he peaked/playing his best tennis in 06?
     
    #97
  48. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    Davy is at the peak of his career imo atm. Davydenko beat Federer in TMF, which Fed really wanted to win I think. I would always bet on Federer or Nadal when they face Davydenko, but sure you gotta say he's got a chance this time.

    I can see Soderling beating Nadal in a HC Slam as well. Guys like Murray, Del potro, Gonzalez, Tsonga have done it as well. Verdasco came mighty close.
     
    #98
  49. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

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    you may feel that way, but I think Rafa don't want no part of Davy in his draw. He's got a 5 match winning streak against Rafa on hc. Soderling humbled Rafa on his best surface and then straight set him in WTF. These guys owned Rafa and part of the reason is why Rafa is still titleless for quite sometime. Wake up!
     
    #99
  50. swedechris

    swedechris Banned

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    My fav is Del Potro.
    2nd choice is Rafa.
    3rd Fed.
    4th Djoko and Muzza shared.
    5th Davy.
    6th Cilic.
    7th Sod.
    8th Roddick.
    9th Gonzo.
    10th Fern.


    Potential breakthru for Gulbis ...
     

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