Who will end the year as number 1?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by RogerFan1991, Sep 27, 2012.

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Who will end 2012 as number 1?

Poll closed Oct 8, 2012.
  1. Federer

    32 vote(s)
    49.2%
  2. Djokovic

    33 vote(s)
    50.8%
  1. bezs

    bezs Legend

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    Gonna be hard for Roger with so much points to defend but he might just do it.
     
    #51
  2. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    yeah, I'm pretty sure Rog will break 300 and that's a great record, no question. If he somehow manages to end up as year end #1 (I doubt it tho) he'll equal Sampras as the only guy to do it 6 times. My personal opinion is that it's not that important as he has nothing really to prove to anyone any more.

    So, basically, Fed will be 'holding' all important records ... plenty of fun for his fans :).
     
    #52
  3. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

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    Djokovic i think, 1000pts is to much for 31yrs old Fed......
     
    #53
  4. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

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    Yes sir!! :)
     
    #54
  5. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    But Fed is head and shoulders above anyone else indoor and Murray typically goes on a roll in Asia. I fully expect Murray to pocket his 3rd Shanghai title this year, so Djoko won't gain that many points there even if he wins Beijing. And indoor, Fed reigns (unless he has some kind of wearout/injury going on). Fed will win Basel most certainly and he wins WTF most of the time, so the only question mark for him is Paris but one has to take into account that neither Murray nor Djoko has a great record in Paris and WTF (I know Djoko won Paris and WTF once but since then, he's done rather poorly in both events and Murray hasn't even made a final in those events ), which means that Fed could outperform them even if he doesn't win Paris. On a side note, I find it remarkable that Djoko is leading the race given how few tournaments he's played compared to the others. That speaks volumes about how consistent he's been in the big events. However, in the event Fed plays Shanghai and Murray/Djoko have to duke it out in the semi, Fed would have a golden opportunity to take Shanghai and seal year end #1 at the same time...
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2012
    #55
  6. Hood_Man

    Hood_Man Legend

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    Can you imagine if the race for year end #1 came down to a final between Fed and Djok at the WTF?

    If only it was best of 5!
     
    #56
  7. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    It SHOULD be best of 5. That event doesn't have all the credibility the ATP is desperate to give it unfortunately. This (WTF final Fed/Djoko) would be the best case scenario for us spectators, maximum drama and suspense :)
     
    #57
  8. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

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    Looks like Nadal is playing the price for skipping Olympics, Toronto, Cincinatti, US Open, Tokyo and etc.

    It won't be long before Ferrer and Murray overtake him.
     
    #58
  9. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    Fed is a better player indoors. I agree. However, both Novak and Roger didn't play the Asian swing last year. Djokovic, if he wins China Open, will win extra 500 points (it's very likely as the field is very weak there. The only player that might challenge him there is Tsonga but his form is questionable right now. Remind you he never lost a match in Shanghai and won the title twice.

    As for Murray and Novak, if they meet in Shangai I'd say it's 50/50. Murray was successful last year in Asia but both Djokovic and Fed didn't play. Again both Fed and Novak can only gain points in Shanghai and Murray is irrelevant because he mathematically can not be #1 this year. Plus don't right off Fed in Shanghai, he'll be fresh and he can hurt Murray anywhere. The question is who will do better in Shangai this year, Roger or Novak?

    Djokovic lost in Paris last year (W/O to Tsonga, QF), lost in Basel SF, and played like a monkey at the WTF being completely wasted.

    Realistically, he just needs to stay ahead one step ahead of Roger and he'll easily end up as #1. Fed needs to defend Basel, Paris and WTF plus play exceptionally well in Asia. very high task for him.

    The reason why Djokovic is leading the race by 1000 points (despite the fact that he played only 13 tournaments) is that he simply outperformed Fed at slams (Novak, 1W, 2F, 1SF; Fed 1W, 2SF, 1QF) plus he was more consistent. Djokovic won or reached semis/finals of all tournaments he played this year except for Madrid (lost in QF).

    p.s. this is my re to Veroniquem's post #56
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2012
    #59
  10. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    I'm gonna assume you meant Beijing there? Because Djoko has never won Shanghai. I know Djoko was injured last year, still, in Paris he did well once and that's it. All other times (6 to be precise) that Djoko participated in the event, he didn't even make the semi. He's also reached WTF final only once in 5 participations vs Fed who reached the final almost every single time he's played it. So I don't think it's a given AT ALL Djoko will manage to snatch #1. Personally, I totally hope you're right because I firmly believe that whoever does best in slams should finish the year as #1, it just seems "fair" that it should be this way. But this year is tight and it is undeniable Fed has a non negligible chance to pull it off.
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2012
    #60
  11. The-Champ

    The-Champ Legend

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    Does Murray have a chance to be no.1 if he wins all the remaining tournaments he participates in?
     
    #61
  12. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Yes, he does. Murray is about 2200 points behind Fed in the race rankings. Shanghai, Paris, Tokyo and WTF are worth about 4000 points altogether. So, sure, he has a shot especially if Fed does badly. ETA: oops I forgot to add that he's 3200 points behind Djoko though (in the race), so Fed AND Djoko would have to do horrible for Murray to take #1 from both of them, which is why Murray's chance is slim overall.
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2012
    #62
  13. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    You do know that there's also a guy named Djokovic who has a 3.000 point lead on Murray?

    To answer the question: Murray would have to win everything in sight and hope that both Djokovic and Federer break a leg.

    If he does well at the tail end of 2012 he'll have a shot at no 1 after the AO, though when Djok has 2000 points to defend.
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2012
    #63
  14. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    ya man, I meant Beijing of course (I was going to talk about Shanghai later so I just brain farted :)). now, you are right about WTF and Paris to some degree. Djokovic did manage to win both events but he never really performed that well at the end of the season except in 2009 when he won Beijing, Basel and Paris and played SF in Shangai. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

    All I'm saying is that Roger's path to year end #1 seems to be much more difficult.
     
    #64
  15. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Yes, of course. I amended my post.
     
    #65
  16. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    #66
  17. Hood_Man

    Hood_Man Legend

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    I think Murray's scheduled to play Shanghai (1,000), Paris (1,000), Basel (500) and the WTF (1,500 if unbeaten in RR), for a potential maximum of 4,000 points.

    If he wins Tokyo that puts him on 7,230 race points, so if he won all 4 tournaments above as well, he'd be on 11,230 points.

    Assuming Djokovic wins Beijing for a race total of 10,410, that would be a lead over Djokovic of 820 points at the end of the year, assuming Djokovic wins nothing at all for the rest of the season.

    However, Novak could achieve those 820 points with a semifinal in Shanghai (360 points), a quarterfinal in Paris (180), and two wins at the WTF (400), for a total of 940 points, and a year end total of 11,350.

    Numerically it's possible, but I'd say it's unlikely. I've not even bothered working out Fed's chances (he should be good for a few finals and semi's at least during the indoor season).



    ...I think anyway, I'm prone to mistakes :oops:
     
    #67
  18. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Actually, it's funny because I think the #1 is a total 2 horse race right now (Fed/Djoko) but I also think that ultimately, it's what Murray does that may determine which 1 of the 2 ends up #1. Indeed, if Murray won everything, at this point, I don't think it would be enough to catch #1 that quickly (Fed and Djoko are not gonna lose every match till year end) but what it would do is prevent Fed from defending his points and what that would do in turn is probably give the year end #1 to Djoko. So, Djoko fans should actually cheer for Murray and Fed fans should cheer against him :)
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2012
    #68
  19. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    It depends.

    If Murray and Djokovic get drawn together in one half I will be rooting for Murray to beat Novak (but then lose to Federer in the final). Even if Murray won the title taking Djokovic in the semis and then Fed in the finals, Fed will gain points on Djokovic.
     
    #69
  20. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    But not necessarily enough to make up the 1000 points that separate him from Djoko right now in the race. (which may become 1500 points after this week). + one would expect Murray won't fall in Djoko's side for all remaining events of the year although given the weird draw occurences over the past few seasons, I wouldn't bet on it either :oops:
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2012
    #70
  21. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Sexi now > 1500 points behind Noel after not playing this week. That's a big hill to climb.
     
    #71
  22. merlinpinpin

    merlinpinpin Hall of Fame

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    That was in the cards, with the weak field in Beijing.

    Getting Murray in his half in Shanghai sure won't help him, though. Murray beating djokovic in the Shanghai semi was almost mandatory to 'compensate' for Beijing, and now it won't happen. Fed's odds sure have gotten worse over the last couple of days... ;)
     
    #72
  23. Romismak

    Romismak Rookie

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    Nole is clear favorite, it is in his hands and i think he will do it. He is 1500 points ahead of Roger in race and they will play now the same tournies - Shanghai, Basel, Paris, WTF - 4000 points left and Roger needs at those events 1500+ vs Nole - that´s big task under circumstances:

    1. Roger is older-played much more matches at this time this season than he is used to - he won´t be as fresh for indoor season like 2010-2011 when he finished strong both years

    2.Nole is here at good form- ready to not only fight, but to win those events - last year we know his end of year was horrible

    3. both are 2 highest seeded so Roger doesn´t have the opportunity to stop Nole himself before F - so basically even if Roger will play his best and win all 4 touranments, Nole can be finalist at all events and will earn points

    4. thanks to ,,great,, scheduling BAsel-Paris-WTF 3 weeks in row, no way anybody - including Roger or Nole is going to win 15 matches in row there i don´t believe it, most likely Roger will skip or tank Paris- WTF is just most important and BAsel is BAsel he won´t skip it - so i think 1000 points - or most of them is lost there for Roger...

    Under all those circumstances i mentioned Nole is big favorite to end YE No.1 and i think he will end year No.1 and it won´t be as close as people think, maybe 1000 point differential maybe more for Nole i believe.
     
    #73
  24. RogerFan1991

    RogerFan1991 New User

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    From now on, if Federer defeats Djokovic in Shanghai, Paris and London finals, plus Federer wins in Basel: Fededer - 12920 pts
    Djokovic - 12610 pts

    Federer said today in a press conference that he is looking to end as number 1, otherways he wouldnt be playing Shanghai, so supossing he wins both shanghai and basel, with djokovic making final in shanghai, i think he is gonna play paris, he knows better than anyone that dismissing 1000 pts from there means to lose number 1 one at the season's final week, and that would be pretty painful.
     
    #74
  25. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    You think Roger is going to play and win, 3 weeks back to back? Any idea how tough that is to pull off?
     
    #75
  26. RogerFan1991

    RogerFan1991 New User

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    Yeah, it is as difficult as last year....and Federer pulled it off, and everybody knows Roger loves indoor tennis, he's best indoor player today, and far better than djokovic, so why not think about it?
     
    #76
  27. RogerFan1991

    RogerFan1991 New User

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    Anyways im not saying federer needs to win all 4 tournaments, i really dont djokovic will reach every final of those 4, maybe not even 1, who knows.
     
    #77
  28. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

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    It will definitely be tough to pull off but with Roger you never know especially since it is the indoor season where he is supreme. Why do you think he is in godforsaken Shanghai to begin with at this point in his career? I guess that means he wants to try and do what he can. Personally I doubt he will be able to do it, but, never say never.
     
    #78
  29. Romismak

    Romismak Rookie

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    Last year it wasn´t 3 weeks in row - there was week off between Paris and WTF like always used to be, since this season there is no week between Paris 1000 and WTF

    He is not far better than Nole indoors, yes he is better indoor player, but not far better , he is far better indoor player than Nadal for example

    This season Roger played alredy too many matches + said himself he is tired before DC, + he is again 1 year older than he was last indoor season

    Last thing - most important one - competition at indoor season will be much tougher, last year Roger´s biggest competition indoors was Tsonga, Nole burned out-after injury, Rafa - burned out - plus he sucks indoors, than Murray - mediocre and injured-WTF

    This year there will be better Murray + much much better Djokovic

    With all those things i mentioned i am 100% confident Roger has no chance to win all 3 indoor events
     
    #79
  30. RogerFan1991

    RogerFan1991 New User

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    First, Federer has played just 7 more matches than last year as of this date; second, Federer may not be so tired physicaly, because he hasnt played in 3 weeks, he lost early in the US Open, where he just played 4 matches, and all of those were short, he won cincinnati with an acumulated of 6 hours, loosing no sets, all pretty fast matches, and he didnt play toronto. He may yes be tired mentally, but that goes for djokovic too, and in fact, who may yes be much more tired is Djokovic, who played this week, reched us open final, where he had to play 5 sets, he played consecutively olympics, toronto and cicninnati.....so im gonna leave this by your judgment.

    And one more thing, im sure federer feels more uncomfortable playing tsonga than djokovic in indoors, believe me. So dont think this year there's better competition, maybe different competion.

    I mean, dont just be so confident because you may receive a big and swiss surprise in the end.
     
    #80
  31. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    No he didn't. I don't even remember the last time Roger played 3 weeks back to back, let alone won 3 weeks back to back - no doubt he has probably done it, but not many times. It's not something that happens very often.
     
    #81
  32. Romismak

    Romismak Rookie

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    Yes he played more matches at this point than last year, he is 1 year older again - harder to regenerate and so on so on.. he won´t be as fresh for indoor season he was 2010-2011 - that´s just fact.

    Competition will be tougher, simply Nole wasn´t there last year, this year he will be there - yes he played a lot, but he can handle it in 2009 he played most matches on tour and won Basel, Paris, won 2/3 matches at WTF just set-games differential stopped him from advance from RR group

    Murray will be as good as last indoor season if not better, Tsonga-Berdych should be fine indoors with their games - with no wind there are both top 5 indoors

    Rafa is irrelevant indoors so doesn´t matter he is not here. So competition will be at least little bit tougher if you want or not those are facts

    Yes i am confident to say Roger won´t win Basel, Paris, WTF - i am 100% sure about it, 31 year old guy who has play a lot alredy in this season won´win 15 matches - or 14 i am not sure if BAsel is 4 or 5 match tournament for top seeded - simply Roger won´t win 14-15 matches in 3 weeks at hig age and with Nole, Andy, Berdych,Tsonga around, either Andy-Nole will exhaust him in long rallies one match or Tsonga-Berdych will blow him off the court or he just will skip-tank Paris- which is not so unrealistic if you think about it.
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2012
    #82
  33. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Someone seems to have forgot that Roger skipped the entire Asian swing last year in order to have enough in the tank for his indoor treble.

    Roger might win Shanghai then play and win 3 seeks back to back after only 1 week off - but I really don't think it's likely.
     
    #83
  34. Sartorius

    Sartorius Professional

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    A quick look at the points race is telling, it's mostly in Djokovic's hands. Federer will want to keep it of course but he has actually said that his goal was to recapture the ranking and not necessarily retain it, and he achieved that goal. It would be more exciting if Federer was still looking to get it back.
     
    #84
  35. Romismak

    Romismak Rookie

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    I haven´t forget i know that he didn´t play Shanghai last year, my point was he played more matches at this point and is older than he was 1 year ago - Shangha is just another factor here - he won´t be as fresh for indoor season for more than 1 reason.

    Winning Shanghai and than indoor event - 4tournaments in 5 weeks at his age vs all younger guys - isn´t happening - 0% chance
     
    #85
  36. RogerFan1991

    RogerFan1991 New User

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    Where did you buy that crystal ball??? I want one.
     
    #86
  37. Romismak

    Romismak Rookie

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    Now honestly besides that you are Roger´s fan just by name i assume.

    I like Roger too, but it won´t happen. Also Nole won´t win everything no way. To many matches in short period of time at this time of the year when everyone of top gyus must feel something - pain, tiredness after logn season and so on, just can´t see Roger or anybody else to either win 3 weeks in row all indoor events or including Shanghai win 4 events in 5 weeks.
     
    #87
  38. RogerFan1991

    RogerFan1991 New User

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    Who is saying federer is gonna win all those tournaments? Im not saying that, the fact is that roger doesnt need to win everything to end as number 1.

    But, however, i would not be surprised if federer won 3 this last 4 tournaments, this has been his best surface the last two years.
     
    #88
  39. Hood_Man

    Hood_Man Legend

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    I suspect that Roger's improved success during the indoor season the past two years, had a lot to do with his relatively poorer results earlier in both seasons. Or to put it another way, he was more rested.

    This year he's had a very busy season, and if he intends to end the year as #1 he'll end the year with something close to 90 matches played.

    I think Novak will take it, but I think Federer may very well push himself hard to try and hold him off. I just don't think he'll do it.

    [EDIT]

    Before I get called out on this... I'm not saying he's not awesome indoors, he clearly is. But I think his success this year might be a disadvantage at this point of the season. Possibly...
     
    #89
  40. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    33 votes from delusional Fed brigade 'fans/tards' who are pretty clueless as usual. All most of them know is to worship their Goddess Federina. If we opened a new poll 'Who has the most beautiful nose on the ATP tour', I'm sure Noserer would win that one too.

    At least Romismak got it right, being very neutral and realistic.
     
    #90
  41. Romismak

    Romismak Rookie

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    I am just saying he won´t win 3/3 indoors that´s all.
     
    #91
  42. Romismak

    Romismak Rookie

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    Thanks, and yes i am neutral i like both of them-funny reason besides gamestyles- i am slovak and Roger´s wife is slovak too and well Vajda is well knows too i think - so i really am neutral here and saying what i think how it looks like. Everyone has his own opinion, but reallistically 1500 points lead in race with 4000 points left with 4 tournaments in 5 weeks and 3 in 3 weeks under all those circumstances i wrote - Nole is clear favorite to YE No.1 that´all. And yes Roger can be YE No.1 - there is chance small but there is, but don´t believe in 3/3 indoors and defninitely not all 4 remaining titles for Roger from 4 tournaments
     
    #92
  43. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    well, exactly. everything you said is correct. I know that Fed has a small chance, but it is very, very small and not very likely, so unless Djokovic breaks both of his arms and legs it ain't gonna happen.
     
    #93
  44. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

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    Evan77, my friend, don't lose your time, let him believe that 31yrs old Fed is going to win 15 matches in 3 consecutive weeks.....
     
    #94
  45. Ico

    Ico Hall of Fame

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    I don't know for sure who will end up YE#1, but whoever wins the WTF among Federer, Djokovic, and Murray would be my pick for Player of the Year.
     
    #95
  46. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

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    Well Federer and Djok won WTF before, so this year i'm hoping for Murray....
     
    #96
  47. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    Gonzo, I know. I just wish that all of us on this board, as tennis lovers, would be more realistic/neutral instead of projecting our wishful thinking as some cyber reality. the matter of rankings is a very simple math. it's really not that difficult. I just get irritated when some guys on TW use extremely flawed logic to worship their favorite players without making any/or very little sense.
     
    #97
  48. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

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    That would be tennis Utopia, but ain't gonna happen
     
    #98
  49. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    lol, I'm afraid you are right again. I'll try to be positive here. At least TW is not as bad as MTF which is a complete jungle full of teenagers who started watching tennis like yesterday. I go there once in a while to get entertained by some fantastic gems :). MTF never disappoints me. The level of stupidity going on there is just beyond me, although there are some super smart guys there but it's like 5% or so.
     
    #99
  50. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

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    Yes i'm read TTW and MTF very long, MTF is tennis circus!
     

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