Who will end up with more hard court slams- Federer or Djokovic

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by NadalAgassi, Jan 30, 2013.

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Who will end their career with more hard court majors?

  1. Djokovic

    11 vote(s)
    22.0%
  2. Federer

    35 vote(s)
    70.0%
  3. a dead tie

    4 vote(s)
    8.0%
  1. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    I think this is now an interesting question at this stage. Federer has 9 hard court majors, and Djokovic now has 5. However Federer will be hard pressed to win another (he "could" win 1 more, but it is far from certain, he might never win another slam, and he is more likely to win Wimbledon than another U.S Open at this stage), while Djokovic is virtually certain to win atleast 3 more hard court majors. Will he win 4, 5, or even 6 (or more) more? That is a bigger question and is hard to tell. I think it could be very close in the end to who wins more hard court majors. So who at this moment would be predict wins more hard court majors.

    I could see something like this:

    Djokovic- 7 Australian Opens, 3 U.S Open

    if that is what Djokovic wins, then Federer would need 1 more to end in a tie.
     
    #1
  2. Hodgey20

    Hodgey20 Rookie

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    I think Djokovic will end up with more. He is untouchable in the AO and i think he could win even more than 2 more US Opens too. He is an animal on the hard courts.
     
    #2
  3. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    That's a very good question, we can agree that Fed will end with 10 HC slams at most but with Novak it's obviously hard to predict.

    I think a lot of it will depend on Murray who does extremely well against Novak on fast HC (like Cinci and USO) and who will be Novak's biggest obstacle at USO.

    I think Nadal will make a solid comeback but I don't he will factor in # of HC slams Novak will win as I don't see him beating Novak in HC slam again.

    Regarding AO, he's rock solid in big matches there and it's overall his best slam by far but a bit strangely he seems to be more vulnerable to an early upset than at USO (where he last lost before SF almost 7 years ago).
     
    #3
  4. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    i think djokovic will overtake federer in this department. his game was tailored to hard courts while federer's was tailored to grass. djokovic will never win 7 wimbledons on the other side of the coin. 2 or 3 at the most.
     
    #4
  5. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    7 AO? that's a bit overboard optimistic. I'm not sure Djoko can get to 9 slams on hard (he has 5 currently) but he could get close. Same as masters: currently Djoko has 10 , Fed 15. WTF: 2 vs 6. Djoko could end up at 4 vs 6 or something like that. I suspect Fed will keep the best overall records on hard though. He's just too far ahead. Still, it's true Novak is the only guy out there with the slightest chance at challenging them.
     
    #5
  6. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Lance, and he is also going to break Fed's slam count as well.
     
    #6
  7. kragster

    kragster Hall of Fame

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    7 AO is stretching it, Murray/Nadal/Fed will steal ATLEAST 1 in the next 3 years and after 3 years I dont see Djokovic at a super high level.

    Id say 2 AO's and 1 more USO . So he will have 8.
     
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  8. forzamilan90

    forzamilan90 Legend

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    [​IMG]
     
    #8
  9. President

    President Legend

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    Nadal can trouble him if he comes back to good form, he could have beaten him in Australia last year and even USO 2011 was a huge fight. Murray obviously can bother him, and don't count out Federer. And the rest of the field isn't as weak as people make it out to be, just look at the Wawrinka match this AO.
     
    #9
  10. Chanwan

    Chanwan Legend

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    I don't see Fed winning another AO - his chance was this year had he ended up with Ferrer. US - say he's got somewhat of a chance at winning one the next 2-3 years.

    As for Djoko, yes, it does look like he'll win a LOT more, given the non-challengers below his age. BUT - he can be beaten (more so than Fed 04-07) and Murray has still not reached his full potential (just look at that awful second serve that he hit 50!!! mph slower than his first in the last couple of sets at the AO). And Nadal may well challenge him on hard as well, though probably not beat him. And Fed can still potentially beat him at the US.

    I say it's likely he ends up with 4-5 HC more, but a lot can happen in two-three-four years time.
     
    #10
  11. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    That's the part of your post I can't agree with. A best of 3 on hard sure. But at USO? That ship has sailed. Not that Fed couldn't make 1 last final with a favorable draw but he's not gonna outlast prime Djokovic on his favorite surface at 32+
     
    #11
  12. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    Not on the US hardcourts theyve put in place for the last couple of years no.

    Djokovic >> Federer on slow HC

    Federer >>>>> Djokovic on fast HC

    in their primes that is.
     
    #12
  13. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    I dont think for a moment Djokovic will never win another slam after 2015. He may/probably will be starting to decline at that point, but that doesnt mean he will never win another slam, let alone at his favorite venue. The current up and comers are far too weak for that to be the case IMO. Federer past his prime has won slams in recent years vs great players, so Djokovic past his prime and slowing (presumably starting in 2016 or so) will definitely win some slams with only equally old Murray, half dead Nadal, 35 year old or retired Federer, and Tomic and Raonic as competition.
     
    #13
  14. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

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    Federer....but it entirely possible for Djokovic to equal or surpass it.

    If Djokovic win the US Open this year....it would be even more likely.....still you can see Murray maybe taking 2-3 HC majors away from Djokovic. There are more HC specialists than Clay and Grass combined.

    Del Potro could make a statement, maybe even Berdych on a good run.

    A lot depends on Novak form, his competition, his draws, his health and mental toughness.

    For sure Djokovic can win 2 more AO and 1 more US. After that is unthinkable area.....Djokovic fooled out minds with his 2011 run....maybe he can do this as well.
     
    #14
  15. beast of mallorca

    beast of mallorca Legend

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    If your prediction holds true, does that make Djoker the Greatest Hard Court Player of all time ?
     
    #15
  16. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    It would but realistically Fed will keep that honor. Djoko has already lost 3 finals at USO. His chance of closing in on 5 titles there is close to 0. And however good he is, I doubt very much he's gonna double his titles at AO between the age of 26 and 30. I like Djoko a lot but sometimes even fans have to remain grounded. With 4 AO, 5 USO and 6 WTF, Fed is very, very unlikely to lose the #1 spot on hard for quite some time. I can still hope that Djoko has it in him to get a bit closer.
     
    #16
  17. Hodgey20

    Hodgey20 Rookie

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    This is the x factor i think. Djoko will still be a threat, maybe even a favorite to win slams in 2016 and into his thirties because the field is so weak
     
    #17
  18. Hodgey20

    Hodgey20 Rookie

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    Kudos to clarky. For someone who hates djoko he does not let that impair his predictions.
     
    #18
  19. Fiji

    Fiji Legend

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    Federer, of course. No doubt.

    Djokovic turns 26 in May. After turning 26, Sampras only won one hc slam and Federer only won 3 hc slams. Djokovic winning more than 3 hc slams after 26 is not a foregone conclusion. These are players with about the same mileage at 26 that Djokovic will have this year. Can't compare Djokovic with the likes of Agassi since his mileage was considerably less at 26... Lendl is from another era, 30 years ago. Can't compare him with a player of 3 decades ago either.
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2013
    #19
  20. MTF07

    MTF07 Semi-Pro

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    Some player may have stepped up by then though. You can't easily predict what's going to happen in tennis 3-5 years down the line.

    The fact that Djokovic has less hard court majors than Fed at his current age (Correct me if I'm wrong), I think it's going to be hard to pass him. Unless people think he's going to age as well as Federer, and given his playing style, that's not a smart claim to make.
     
    #20
  21. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    Djokovic would have to win the 2013 US, 2014 AO, 2014 US and 2015 AO to match Federer. That's a big ask. Just this year at the AO he was a couple of points away from losing in the 4th round and it's not going to be any easier as he gets older (26 in May).

    For comparison Federer aged exactly 27 had already won 8 majors on hard courts so Djokovic is behind even if he wins the next couple of HC majors.

    The only real answer to the question in the OP is to wait and see. There are still a couple of unknowns such as:
    -Nadal coming back
    -Murray being a factor if he gets his act together and doesn't get killed by a feather
    -Federer finding form for one of the HC slams, especially the US
    -the competition in the next couple of years. I think in 2 years we will see the Janowicz's, Tomic's ect. maturing, we will see if that is enough
    -Djokovic's form in a couple of years, he certaintly won't improve from here
     
    #21
  22. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    4 years from now, even Tomic will be a better player than Djokovic, if he doesn't die of an OD. Can't see Djokovic surpassing Federer.
     
    #22
  23. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    I've learned through the years to never make predictions for the next couple of years.

    Wasn't Nadal going to dominate after 2010 and completely smack Federer's record?

    Wasn't Federer going to win 25 majors like a lot of people thought he would in 2006/2007?

    So now Djokovic is going to win 5 more majors on HC. Yea yea yea...
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2013
    #23
  24. Feather

    Feather Hall of Fame

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    Nice topic !

    It's tough to say. Wawrinka was almost close to beating him. It would be interesting to see how Nadal does against Djokovic in HC. Nadal is no mug and he can hurt Djokovic

    i don't think seven AO is possible
     
    #24
  25. Jeffrey573639

    Jeffrey573639 Semi-Pro

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    You're clearly a Djoko fan aren't ya Feather screwing Muzza up like that :)
    But I agree that seven AO's is a tough ask so to answer OP Fed will probably take it- not by much though
     
    #25
  26. Flash O'Groove

    Flash O'Groove Hall of Fame

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    It is really silly to predict NOW that Djokovic can win four more HC major. Tennis doesn't work like that. Who knew that Fed would win only 1 more HC major in 2008? Who knew that Nadal would win only 2 major after 2010? Who knew that Nole would win only major after 2011? Things can shift really fast in Tennis. It is very difficult to keep one's best level for a long time, and anybody can step at any moment. Nobody knew Nole would go on a streak in 2010.

    So for the OP's question, sure it is possible, but at this stage it is still unlikely. Even if he reach 8 HC major, the ninth will be hard to take.
     
    #26
  27. Fiji

    Fiji Legend

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    Players begin declining once they hit 26. The fact that Sampras won just one hc slam after turning 26 in August 1997 and Federer only won 3 hc slams after August 2007 when he turned 26, says it all. Even winning 3 more hc slams won't be easy for Djokovic. Unless he has the longevity of Federer which is hard to imagine with Djokovic's playing style.


    Not even Federer won 4 hc slams after turning 26. Why would Djokovic do it? That Gumby playing style does not lead to longevity in the sport.
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2013
    #27
  28. Towser83

    Towser83 Legend

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    The last 2 times Djokovic has faced Federer at the USO he's had to save match points to beat him. Fair enough Federer will be 2 years older this year, but you never know the forms of both players on the day. If it goes 5 sets then I would definitely pick Djokovic, but Federer could get it done in 4. Also could depend on the court speed. I actually think Djokovic does not match upthat wellvs Federer at the US Open. Prime for prime Federer would have big problems at the AO versus Djokovic but Djokovic would really struggle vs Federer at the US Open and even the age issue offsetting it is not making it easy.
     
    #28
  29. jm1980

    jm1980 Legend

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    I think they'll end up with 9 HC majors each. Djoko will also win an RG to complete his Career GS and end up with 11 or 12 majors overall.
     
    #29
  30. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

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    People forgetting that Nole was facing 2 MP at the 2011 USO semifinal and should have lost to Wawrinka this year AO. He could easily be sitting on only 3 hc slams right now. I know luck play a huge role in his success, but he can't depend on luck forever. And player at 26 start to slow down despite they are in their prime. Nole eventually will slow down too.
     
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  31. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Luck favours the brave, Novak is one of the most clutch players I've ever seen.
     
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  32. 90's Clay

    90's Clay Legend

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    Djokovic EASILY. I could easily see him grab another 4 AO titles at least giving him 8 in total. And at the very least he should be able to win another 2 USO titles. Probably will end up with 3-4 USO titles before its all over. Especially if they keep slowing it done to AO proportions

    Giving him 10-12 hardcourt slams in all
     
    #32
  33. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    Federer, though I wouldn't be surprised to see Djokovic get pretty close.
     
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  34. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    If he gets to 12 Hardcourt Slams and manages a RG, Djokovic > Sampras.
     
    #34
  35. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    ROTFL so Djokovic's last chance to win a major is the 2015 Australian. What is going to happen at that point, will:

    1. The earth explode.
    2. Raonic and Tomic and Dmitrov take over tennis and win every slam for the next few years.

    1 is probably more likely than 2. Djokovic might not reach 9 hard court slams (or more) but his chances to win any future hard court slams definitely dont end the very moment he turns 28.
     
    #35
  36. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    I'm not saying he doesn't have a chance at age 28+ but that he would have to win all 4 in succession (the next 4 hard court majors) to tie Federer and each time he slips up he loses 6 months as there are only 2 HC majors a year. Since Federer himself won his last HC major aged 28,5 and his style is twice as economical as Djokovic's one can assume that Djokovic to break that record would pretty much have to sweep the next couple of HC majors.

    The only other reason why Djokovic would still be racking up slams in his late 20's would be complete lack of competition (other than Murray who is exactly the same age) at the time. 2-3 years is HUGE in tennis so best thing is to wait and see what happens.
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2013
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  37. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    Dont get me wrong, I do fully expect Djokovic to start slowing down in 2 or 3 years, and I doubt he would totally dominate at that point either. However I would be very surprised given the current up and coming group if he stops winning slams altogether at that point. I think that would more likely be in 4 or 5 years time when some players we know little about now who have way more talent than the likes of Raonic and Tomic have emerged, and Djokovic has slowed down even more. Same goes for Murray (well I could see Murray even outlasting Djokovic with his playing style, although still wont ever have as good a career). I do not know if Djokovic will reach 9 or 10 hard court slams, but I dont think he has to win the next 4 in a row to have a chance of doing so. He might have to win 3, and if he wins less than 2 obviously no chance.
     
    #37

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