Why does Djokovic always draw Federer?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by jm1980, May 25, 2012.

  1. jm1980

    jm1980 Legend

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    15 times out of the last 18.

    2008 AO: #1 Federer - #3 Djokovic; #2 Nadal - #4 Davydenko
    2008 RG: #1 Federer - #4 Davydenko; #2 Nadal - #3 Djokovic
    2008 W: #1 Federer - #3 Djokovic; #2 Nadal - #4 Davydenko
    2008 USO: #1 Nadal - #4 Ferrer; #2 Federer - #3 Djokovic

    2009 AO: #1 Nadal - #4 Murray; #2 Federer - #3 Djokovic
    2009 RG: #1 Nadal - #3 Murray; #2 Federer - #4 Djokovic
    2009 W: #1 Nadal - #3 Murray; #2 Federer - #4 Djokovic
    2009 USO: #1 Federer - #4 Djokovic; #2 Murray - #3 Nadal

    2010 AO: #1 Federer - #3 Djokovic; #2 Nadal - #4 JMDP
    2010 RG: #1 Federer - #4 Murray; #2 Nadal - #3 Djokovic
    2010 W: #1 Federer - #3 Djokovic; #2 Nadal - #4 Murray
    2010 USO: #1 Nadal - #4 Murray; #2 Federer - #3 Djokovic

    2011 AO: #1 Nadal - #4 Murray; #2 Federer - #3 Djokovic
    2011 RG: #1 Nadal - #4 Murray; #2 Djokovic - #3 Federer
    2011 W: #1 Nadal - #4 Murray; #2 Djokovic - #3 Federer
    2011 USO: #1 Djokovic - #3 Federer; #2 Nadal - #4 Murray

    2012 AO: #1 Djokovic - #4 Murray; #2 Nadal - #3 Federer
    2012 RG: #1 Djokovic - #3 Federer; #2 Nadal - #4 Murray
     
    #1
  2. BigServer1

    BigServer1 Legend

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    15 out of 18 is pretty wild to think about...I know it's random, but it is a funny coincidence.
     
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  3. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    It doesn't matter who Rolaids draws. He's going to win RG anyway.
     
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  4. SwankPeRFection

    SwankPeRFection Hall of Fame

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    Just once I'd like to see Nadal have to go through Nole first and then Fed to win something. FCOL!
     
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  5. woodrow1029

    woodrow1029 Hall of Fame

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    #5
  6. EndLy

    EndLy Rookie

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    the possible lure of a nadal federer final, primetime Sunday afternoon is too great.
    I was honestly surprised federer and nadal were on the same side of the draw for tue Australian Open.

    I'm sure Djokovic will draw Federer for Wimbledon too.
     
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  7. Frying Pan Forehand

    Frying Pan Forehand Rookie

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    Damn this conspiracy theory lunatics. Right now Fed isn't making finals so if the organizers want profit they would have Fed vs Nadal because that is the most popular match possible in today's tennis and then even get a nice match Nadal vs Djokovic which is becoming even more popular than Fed vs Djokovic.

    Take your pills.
     
    #7
  8. Arafel

    Arafel Professional

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    Well, it seems odd, but if you look at the breakdown, it's because their rankings keep changing and have not been static. Put it this way: in every year except 2011, the split has been 50/50 over the Slams between a 1/4 and 2/4 pairing of the seeds for the semis. In 2011, there were 3 1/4 parings and one 1/3. If the rankings had been the same over that period, it would argue for something more in terms of organizers fixing it.
     
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  9. jm1980

    jm1980 Legend

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    This doesn't mean they couldn't have been rigged. Here's what I think the train of thought was last year:

     
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  10. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    It is very strange ... I thought about it too ... conspiracy, so Nudall can get anywhere, unlcle Tony is really good, lol
     
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  11. svijk

    svijk Semi-Pro

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    isnt Fed #2 ranked player now? so how did he end up in Djoko' half?
     
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  12. Lemoned

    Lemoned Rookie

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    Last time they got what they wanted, even though Federer hadn't been able to make a final four times in a row prior to RG 2011. So why change a winning formula when it's proved it's still working for them. [​IMG]
     
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  13. jm1980

    jm1980 Legend

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    He isn't.

    1. Djokovic, Novak (SRB) - 11,800
    2. Nadal, Rafael (ESP) - 10,060
    3. Federer, Roger (SUI) - 9,790
    4. Murray, Andy (GBR) - 7,500

    http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/Singles.aspx
     
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  14. Tammo

    Tammo Banned

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    2008 FO........
     
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  15. PCXL-Fan

    PCXL-Fan Hall of Fame

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    They had to stop doing this because the media started writing articles about this.
     
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  16. svijk

    svijk Semi-Pro

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    thx, i thought he became #2 after winning Madrid....but i guess Rafa got it back after Rome
     
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  17. Rickenbacker4003

    Rickenbacker4003 Professional

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    Nadal got a dream draw. No Fed, Berdych, Delpo or Tsonga. So much for the French hating him.
     
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  18. Rickenbacker4003

    Rickenbacker4003 Professional

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    French Open 2007 and 2008.
     
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  19. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

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    Nadal needs to go through Grampa Freds, and Djokovic 2.0

    Before it was okay when Nadal went through Djokovic 1.0 to Prime Federer.

    It impossible to face Prime Federer and Djokovic 2.0 since they both have appeared in different times. If Nadal did he would not have 10 but rather 4 slam titles.
     
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  20. WhiskeyEE

    WhiskeyEE Legend

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    That means absolutely nothing. Fed and Joker switching seeds allowed the number pairings be more balanced. That doesn't mean they aren't rigging the draws.

    From chance alone, both the number and Joker-Fed pairings should be balanced, regardless of whether they changed seeds or not. That is, they should have met half the time while seeds 1 and 3 AND half of the time while 2 and 3, or whatever. This would make both the number and player pairings balanced.

    The fact that one is extremely skewed suggests that they are rigging them.
     
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  21. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Because tio Toni owns tennis.

    Soon we will see higher net, only one serve allowed, all HC tournaments switched to (red) clay and a two year ranking system.
     
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  22. sunof tennis

    sunof tennis Professional

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    Perhaps one of the tennis historians can answer this question, have the slams always completed their draws with random selections in the semis?
    Not sure why tennis doesn't do what other sports do and have 1 play 4 and 2 play 3 at all times if all make it to the semis. That would certinaly eliminate the conspiracy theories:)
     
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  23. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    I think TPTB still hold out hopes for Federer-Nadal finals and the only way that is possible is for them not to play in the semis.

    Then going back in time when Djokovic was #3 he seemed to usually end up in Nadal's half at Roland Garros, but Federer's in the other slams, which was kind of funny. Maybe they figured there was no chance of him beating Nadal at RG, and not much chance of him beating Federer at Wimbledon or the U.S Open, so that was the safest draw to almost guarantee the desired Federer-Nadal final as well.
     
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  24. WhiskeyEE

    WhiskeyEE Legend

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    This is what I think as well. But who's TPTB?
     
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  25. PCXL-Fan

    PCXL-Fan Hall of Fame

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    The Djokovic-Federer semi pattern thing stopped recently when various academic and journalistic bodies drew attention to this issue, which coincided with the ending of this pattern. Also a weird coincidence that the pattern stops after media and academic attention is drawn to this suspicious pattern. The Djokovic-Federer semi pattern thing changed when various academic and journalistic bodies did drew attention to this issue which coincided with the ending of this pattern.


    http://essentialtennis.com/tournews/2011/06/the-strange-odds-of-federer-vs.-djokovic/
    http://www.b92.net/sport/tenis/vesti.php?yyyy=2011&mm=10&dd=20&nav_id=550938
    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kR1DPVj3DAlkq880NDIt4K7Kyrk8I0iF48-rEKBJ3S0/edit?hl=en_US&pli=1
    http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/6854000/how‐espn‐lines‐analyzed‐us‐open‐tennis‐
    http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_...nds‐top‐seeds‐tennis‐us‐open‐had‐easier‐draw‐
    http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=6861149&categoryid=2378529
    http://www.playthegame.org/fileadmi..._Pijetlovic_-_6_Oct_at_PLAY_THE_GAME_2011.pdf
    http://www.livestream.com/playthegame_dshs/video?clipId=pla_44809e94-aa04-46c7-9f1e-35b212ba9d46 <- this link gives estonian researchers lecture to the press on these's statistical improbabilities (starts at 14:00)

    Investigators also found that relative easiness USO for the opening rounds for the top 2 men over the last 10 years happened with a probability of 1 in 333. They also found that in WTA it was even worse, that the top 2 seeds relative easiness of 1st round opponents using computer probility simulations was reproduced 0 in of 1000 attempts.
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2012
    #25
  26. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    yeah, I read so much about it and I find it really odd ... not sure what to make out of it ...
     
    #26
  27. WhiskeyEE

    WhiskeyEE Legend

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    The probability of them meeting as often as they have is a fraction of a percent (I calculated it). It's ridiculous.

    Anyone know if a similar thing occurred with Sampras and Agassi?
     
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  28. BlueClayIsRealClay

    BlueClayIsRealClay Banned

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    it's a conspiracy
     
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  29. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    good question. I'm going to try to look it up. As for Djoko and Fed it's so crazy (I had to learn some statistics at the university, and I can only scratch my head)...

    look, love watching 2 great champions (Rog and Nole) but it's so strange :confused:
     
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  30. r2473

    r2473 Legend

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    Last edited: May 25, 2012
    #30
  31. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    #31
  32. Mustard

    Mustard Talk Tennis Guru

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    Look at the seeding numbers and not the names of the players.
     
    #32
  33. WhiskeyEE

    WhiskeyEE Legend

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    It doesn't matter. Statisically, they should have met half the time while seeds 1 and 3 and half the time while seeds 2 and 3, which would still be half the time overall. But it isn't.

    They changed rankings, which evened out the number pairings a bit since they went from rigging 2 and 3 to 1 and 3. That doesn't mean it isn't rigged.
     
    #33
  34. Sid_Vicious

    Sid_Vicious G.O.A.T.

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    Same old BS topic.
     
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  35. purge

    purge Hall of Fame

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    because its only fair since federer always drew djokovic as well lol
     
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  36. Daized

    Daized Rookie

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    The seeding itself is irrelevant because in each slam they had a 50% chance of meeting. The chances Fed and Djokovic met this many times is just statistically not very plausible (It can happen, but so so so unlikely).
     
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  37. Ocean Drive

    Ocean Drive Hall of Fame

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    I don't see much of a difference between 2008 Djokovic to 2012 Djokovic, in ability. I just think that the competition was better in 2008. Djokovic is certainly fitter now than in 2008 but his game has been more passive as a result, in my opinion.
     
    #37
  38. 1970CRBase

    1970CRBase Guest

    #38
  39. jm1980

    jm1980 Legend

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    Djokovic hasn't been the same this year, not just his game but also his head.

    Been seeing shades of Djokovic 1.0, who would lose his cool when facing adversity.

    I want Djokovic 2.0 back, that one who remained calm no matter what happened on court and found a way to win.
     
    #39
  40. Crisstti

    Crisstti Legend

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    Sure, and how many slams would Fed have if he had faced both prime Nadal and Djokovic...

    :roll:
     
    #40
  41. Nathaniel_Near

    Nathaniel_Near G.O.A.T.

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    Relax folks, ...
    Because draws are probably to some extent predetermined.
     
    #41
  42. dascud

    dascud New User

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    You mean like in Roland garros 2007 & 2008 ?.
     
    #42
  43. bullfan

    bullfan Legend

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    Nadal doesn't need a dream draw for clay.

    Fed.... Hasn't beat him at RG yet, and won't start now.

    Berdych..... Nadal took him to the cleaners at Rome, although that was Rafa's best match during the tournament. Berdych is a mental midget and it doesn't matter who's side of the draw Berdych is in. Berdych should have beat Fed and Djokovic on clay this year and blew it both times. Didn't come close to beating Rafa. Won't come close to beating Fed or Novak if he should face either.

    Delpo.... is most not a clay court challenge for Rafa. Delpo couldn't prepare for DC while Rafa was wiped out after a busy season, and didn't challenge Rafa much, why would he now? Besides I see Delpo as possibly injured, he started wearing a brace and didn't look good in Rome. I don't think it matters which draw Delpo is in, he isn't going to hurt any of the top 3.

    Tsonga..... who Rafa wiped off clay in DC right after USOpen, when Rafa was beat. Tsonga is so hit or miss that unless it's hard court, he's a total miss, it doesn't matter who's draw he's in.

    Bottom line.... None of those 4 can hurt any of the top 3 on clay.
     
    #43
  44. Bobby Jr

    Bobby Jr Legend

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    This is one slam where I'm happy for Federer and Djokovic to be on the same side. My reasoning is I think Djokovic has little chance of beating both Federer and Nadal at the FO.

    My preference is that Djokovic does not win four slams on the trot - basically because we'll be subjected to even more "goat" arguments forever as if he achieved the same as Laver of Graf - who did it in a calendar year (it would still be a great achievement no doubt - I just don't want Djokovic to do it).

    For once we're entering a slam where I don't wanting any particular player to win, rather I want a particular player to not win.
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2012
    #44
  45. jm1980

    jm1980 Legend

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    What if Djokovic wins all 4 slams this year?
     
    #45
  46. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    disagree, my dream is to see Novak and Roger in the final of RG. also it would be awesome if Novak could win RG and hold all 4 slams ... sure I'd be perfectly happy if Roger wins another one but don't see it happening ... I'd be happy if Joan Rivers wins RG, anybody but that pusher Nadal :)
     
    #46
  47. Tony48

    Tony48 Legend

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    I already looked at 3 other groups of tennis players:

    1. McEnroe-Lendl-Connors-Wilander ERA (1983-1985)
    2. Endberg-Becker-Lendl-Agassi ERA (1988-1991)
    3. Edberg-Courier-Becker-Sampras ERA (1991-1994)

    ....and their rankings kept changing but they didn't show anything NEAR the kind of outrageous pairing that we see with Fed-Djokovic/Nadal-Murray
     
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  48. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    I think it revolves around TPTB that be wanting Federer-Nadal finals at all costs. The only way that is possible if Djokovic is #1 or #2 is if Federer plays Djokovic in the semis, as obviously if there is a Federer-Nadal semi there can be no final. Then when Djokovic was #3 putting Djokovic in Nadal's half at RG and Federer's half at the U.S Open was the safest way to ensure him not making the final of either, thus preserving the chance of the likely Fedal final (Wimbledon I dont think they worried what half he was in pre 2011, and Australian they were worried about him whichever half he was in).

    I have some friends who dont follow tennis very closely, and they complained to me last year when they bought tickets to the Canadian final and neither Federer or Nadal made it. They didnt even care about Djokovic or "that other guy", which was their exact words. I have a feeling that is representative of many of the casual fans thoughts even today. It isnt fair, but it is how it is. Even after his amazing 2011, Nadal and Federer are still the big drawing cards.
     
    #48
  49. Mustard

    Mustard Talk Tennis Guru

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    http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showpost.php?p=6108165&postcount=246
     
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  50. 1970CRBase

    1970CRBase Guest

    Fedal is good for the clothes sponsors.
     
    #50

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