Why Roger will win the 2013 AO

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by smoledman, Dec 28, 2012.

  1. papertank

    papertank Hall of Fame

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    If Murray draws Fed in the semis I think Murray would be the favorite. If they happen to meet in the final, Fed would be the favorite. Djokovic would be the heavy favorite to beat Fed no matter what.
     
    #51
  2. Homeboy Hotel

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    There was no pressure at the USO. He just had to win a standard '100% crowd on his side' night match (he's never lost a night match to that point). And lost.

    Berdych with more spring in his legs than Federer, more aggression and at night where the ball zips through the court a little quicker = Devastating upset.

    We saw it in Miami and USO, we've also seen it at Wimbledon.
     
    #52
  3. Hitman

    Hitman G.O.A.T.

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    Roger will be a contender for the AO, no doubt, but he is not the fav. He needs to avoid Djokovic, I just can't see him getting past him at this point. Federer needs to avoid Berdych, and Murray on route to the final also, if he is to increase his chances, because even if he wins, those matches could take a lot out of him.
     
    #53
  4. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Fed is not going to win the AO. Eeyore has already won it.
     
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  5. forzamilan90

    forzamilan90 Legend

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    care to explain what Eeyore is? I thought he was Cvak
     
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  6. Netspirit

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    Federer is not beating Murray or Djokovic in slams. That train has left the station in 2012.
     
    #56
  7. jokinla

    jokinla Hall of Fame

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    Ah yes, we've heard this before, and then he showed up at Wimbledon, the slam before the last one, and beat them back to back.
     
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  8. Fedex

    Fedex Hall of Fame

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    Anyone other than Djokovic winning will be a major upset.
    I'm so sure I'm tempted to put some money where my mouth is and place a large bet, and I'm not normally a gambling man.
    Love him or hate him you have to admit you're looking at an all time great in the making who, like it or not, is destined to dominate and win many more slams.
    The only fly in Djokovic's ointment could be peak Murray but how often is that going to show up?
     
    #58
  9. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

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    if you mentioned cincy, USO & wimbledon I'd understand - horrendous perfomances from federer & berdych played well, but miami 2010 ??????

    federer had the match on his hands, had MPs and totally blew it .... berdych wasn't that good in that match ....
     
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  10. Feather

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    The train has to stop somewhere. :)
     
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  11. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

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    djoker is the favourite vs fed at the AO ..

    But if federer plays well and smartly, using his full repertoire of shots, mixing it up including junkballing instead of trying to trade hammerblows with novak , he can pull it off .....
     
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  12. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

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    nah, federer played horrendous in both wimby 2010 and USO 2012 vs berdych, not going to happen again @ this AO ... he will be out for revenge and charged up this time should they meet ...
     
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  13. Feather

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    The three setter at AO 2011 was not that one sided. First set was a tie breaker, second Roger was leading 5-2 and he lost, third he broke back to 4-4 and then lost. It was just eight points difference in the end. It wasn't that one sided as many make it out to be. It's NOT like Roger doesn't have any chances at all
     
    #63
  14. The_Order

    The_Order Legend

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    I've got a feeling it's time for him to lose before QF stage. Can't go on forever and with the lack of playing any lead up tournament (apart from his exo unless I'm missing something) he will have his troubles. Don't ask me WHO will beat him, but I've got a feeling someone will before the QF stages.
     
    #64
  15. The_Order

    The_Order Legend

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    He's not beating Djoker. Not a chance...... :)
     
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  16. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Hi mate - hope you and the family had a great Xmas.

    Re your statement in bold - don't do it mate. He's nowhere near the level of favourite that Rafa used to be at RG.

    Let's consider things for a minute. He's around 5/4 - that equates to 44% in relative probability terms; let's be generous and make it 50%.

    So - the guys who, for a living, price the risk of Djokovic winning the AO rate that event as being less likely than correctly calling heads on the toss of coin.

    Would you bet a lot of money on the toss of a coin? Thought not - so it follows that you shouldn't bet a lot of money on an event with a lower probability of occuring.
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2012
    #66
  17. smoledman

    smoledman Legend

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    Heck I wouldn't put it past Roger to win all 4 in 2013. You can bump this post to the end of time if I'm wrong.
     
    #67
  18. Hawkeye7

    Hawkeye7 Professional

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    He better not win now, otherwise you might have robbed Fedex of a life of wealth and glamour. ;)
     
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  19. Feather

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    I have slight hopes in Federer. It's not like Djokovic is gonna win it like Rafa win RG. And Roger is certainly the third favorite after Djokovic and Murray, irrespective of his loss to Berdych in USO
     
    #69
  20. Bobby Jr

    Bobby Jr Legend

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    You've gotta look at past slow court efforts in their match ups... Federer played a truly inspired match to beat Djokovic in the 2011 French Open semis - when Djokovic was in his peak form.

    Roll forward a year and Djokovic reversed the result this year - but, Federer didn't play nearly as inspired as in 2011 (nor did the slower 2012 balls help him in that respect). I'd say if both Federer and Djokovic made it to the Aussie final the biggest factor would be whether Federer had avoided an epic 5 setter in the previous match or two. If he had his chance of beating Djokovic at the AO would be arguably better than Nadal's. On the right day he can bring more in terms of strategy and un-playability than Nadal can.

    The question is, how often can Federer produce that sort of genius tennis anymore - especially after a series of potentially tough matches? He did it at Wimbledon, but can he do it somewhere slower and hotter?
     
    #70
  21. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Fedex is from Dundee - it's not possible for his life to be any more glamorous.
     
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  22. smoledman

    smoledman Legend

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    Another reason is Roger is 3rd favorite according to the bookies, which takes all the pressure off. You really can't make the objective case for how he's playing with any more pressure. The only issue will be playing tough matches in the high heat.
     
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  23. Feather

    Feather Hall of Fame

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    I think if he serves well he has his chances against Djokovic. It was his serve that made him lose his tie breaker in first set, and then from 5-2 he went down in second set. I mean AO 2011.
     
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  24. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    I'd say better than slight. He's at best 5/1 with the bookies. For comparison, Murray is 3/1 at best.

    So Bookies rate their chances as follows:

    Nole 44%
    Murray 25%
    Sexi 17%
     
    #74
  25. Candide

    Candide Professional

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    There's every chance Federer could meet Ferrer in the semi and Murray and Djokovic could be on the other side in a marathon slugfest. If that doesn't set Federer up for a good chance of taking home the trophy I don't know what does. Ferrer can't seem to trouble Fed yet he's had great runs in Oz. Murray and Djokovic are very close and will grind each other to dust. It's just one of many possibilities but the people who are caps lock DEFINITE that Djokovic can't be beat don't seem to understand the vagaries of professional sport.
     
    #75
  26. The_Order

    The_Order Legend

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    It's not that Novak can't be beaten there, it's just that if he plays Fed he will beat him, most likely in straights.

    I have a feeling Fed will be gone before the QF stages this year though, it has to happen some time and with the lack of preparation he has going into it, he could have a tough time making it to the quarters.

    Also, the AO has a history of throwing the #1 with #4 seed. Since 2007 only 08 and 10 had #1 and #3 in the same half.

    I wouldn't be counting on Ferrer getting far either, Tsonga or Del Po can definitely be right up there.
     
    #76
  27. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

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    A better chance than nadal for sure >> who has zero chance ...... :)
     
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  28. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

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    oh give it a break, neither of those 2 matches where like the beatdowns your idol received in the 2000/2001 USO finals ... All of the 6 sets were close and federer had his chances in almost all of them .......
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2012
    #78
  29. Hawkeye7

    Hawkeye7 Professional

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    You're acting as if Djokovic is already in the final (which is the only round they could meet). It's very likely, but not a given by any means.
     
    #79
  30. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

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    neither was their 2008 match , federer was serving for the first set IIRC and was leading in the 3rd set breaker .....

    granted djoker was playing at an extremely high level on both occasions, but federer just got his tactics and execution wrong on both occasions ...... he was junkballing djoker to death in the 2011 semi 2nd set and then decided to go back to trading groundstroke blows .....

    again one of the reasons for my signature :)
     
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  31. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

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    .....never mind .....
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2012
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  32. The_Order

    The_Order Legend

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    LOL what's it got to do with Nadal who's not even playing? Fed's playing and still against Djoker his chance = 0% hahahahahahaha

    NOT 1 set against Novak on plexicushion and now that he's even older he's going to beat him??? LOL dumb **** logic.

    Anyway, Fed's not making it to the quarters this year. Get ready :)
     
    #82
  33. boredone3456

    boredone3456 Legend

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    If he gets the same draw he did at the USO his chances go down exponentially. Although if he got Tipsy in the QF and Ferrer in the semis than he has a shot.
     
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  34. forzamilan90

    forzamilan90 Legend

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    that's what they said at Wimbledon 2012
     
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  35. Povl Carstensen

    Povl Carstensen Legend

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    Still it is hard to argue with this kind of reasoning:
     
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  36. Cup8489

    Cup8489 Legend

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    Let's make a bet. If you win, you can determine what my payout is. If I win, you leave the boards. I wager Federer will make AT LEAST the quarters. Naturally you believe he will not. What should my payout be?

    Let's make a bet, you're so confident.
     
    #86
  37. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    Would you prefer they didn't have the roof and players had to play or at least finish multiple matches in a single day just to cram it all into two weeks? I have a feeling there would be just as many excuses for Federer winning in that scenario, if not more.
     
    #87
  38. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    Is that why he leads the head-to-head?
     
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  39. canny

    canny Rookie

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    Honestly.... Can you guys be realistic. Obiously we cant count Roger out he's amazing. But on the note of Wimbledon 2012 yes they said Nole had it but come on. Thats Noles worst surface by far and Rogers best. The AO is where Nole excels. So im giving it to him.
     
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  40. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

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    and will you disappear forever from here if he does beat novak ? LOL !

    I already said novak is the favourite ...

    and yeah anyways nadal isn't even going to make it to 1R @ the AO ...... get ready ..... oh wait ....you already are :lol:

    again, you are just trolling here because of your frustration that your favourite nadal is out .....go try somewhere else ....:)
     
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  41. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

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    and at FO 2011 .....
     
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  42. Dedans Penthouse

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    Whoa! Say It Ain't So Lo!

    where's the love? on-topic:

    Djoko's the odds on AO fav no doubt. But when you're Federer and you've done everything, fought and won in every type of situation, and are considered by many as the GOAT, even if your best days are behind you, you always have a chance, whatever the odds. This isn't just any player ... and Federer still has enough 'physical' in him that on any given day he's capable of pulling out his "almost-A+" game which might be enough to match Djoko on an off day ... who knows? jm2cts
     
    #92
  43. Candide

    Candide Professional

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    #93
  44. smoledman

    smoledman Legend

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    Nole was defending Wimbledon champion just 6 months ago.
     
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  45. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon New User

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    He hit the nail on the head.
     
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  46. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    He didn't. Hards are Nadal's worst surface. And Federer's second best (relative to the field).

    Not saying Federer is gonna beat him, though. I do think it's extremely unlikely.
     
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  47. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon New User

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    Are you saying that Federer is a better player on the AO surface than Nadal?

    Because I have some evidence that refutes such a statement.
     
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  48. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    Course he is. And don't bring up the freaking head-to-head. Federer was past his prime and then there's the match-up.
     
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  49. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon New User

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    If he was past his prime then, then he's past his prime now.

    And if you're making the argument that Federer is a better player at the AO despite the fact that Nadal beat him in four sets last year in the semi (and other times before that), I'm gonna pull out the common sense card. No no, he's not.
     
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  50. smoledman

    smoledman Legend

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    Even past his prime, Federer is still an awesome player.
     

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