Will Djokovic end up with a better career than Nadal ?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by tennisaddict, Sep 25, 2012.

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Will Djokovic end up with a better career than Nadal ?

  1. Yes, Novak's career will be better or similar to Nadal

    31.7%
  2. No,Novak will fall short of Nadal by a good margin

    68.3%
  1. tennisaddict

    tennisaddict G.O.A.T.

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    Will Djokovic end up with a similar/better career than Nadal ?

    It was sad to see Nadal not compete in Olympics , USO 2012. Now it appears even AO 2013 is doubtful.

    Nadal is almost 27 now. Not sure how many more productive majors he has left. He has 11 now.

    Compare with Novak. He has 5 majors, just at the start of his prime. He could have very well been at 7-8 majors with a little more luck, still age is on his side.

    When Novak ends his career, do you think he will have a better record than Nadal ? It is a guarantee that he will have a more wider collection of major wins.

    With not too many players coming up, it is not hard to see that Novak / Murray are going to have a lion's share of the majors for the next 3 years (12 majors).

    If Novak has similar years like 2011-2012 for the next 3 years, it appears he can equal or surpass Nadal.

    Mid 2012 everyone was talking Nadal will surpass Federer in Slam count. Even in the worst case, he would rank as an all time second in tennis history.

    But if Novak ends up at10-11 majors, it will put Nadal same as Novak , Borg , Emerson and well less than Federer / Sampras, thus further diluting Nadal's legacy.

    What are your thoughts ?
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2012
    #1
  2. dangalak

    dangalak Banned

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    Might equal him.

    But we shouldn't overestimate Djokovic either. I mean, it's tough to keep a high level up forever.
     
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  3. JMR

    JMR Semi-Pro

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    Why are the only options matching Nadal or falling short "by a good margin"? I don't think Djokovic will equal Nadal, but he might come fairly close if Nadal retires or dramatically reduces his playing in the near future. At 5-11 in slams, Djokovic is well behind at the moment. But what if he eventually reached, say, 9-11?
     
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  4. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    Djokovic is 6 away from catching Nadal.
    Nadal is 6 away from catching Federer.
    With the way things are looking right now, Djokovic is in contention to win more Slams and narrow the gap on Nadal considering half the Slams are played on Djokovic's best surface. Djokovic has won the last 2 AOs and either won or been a runner in the last 3 USOs.
    Nadal still has not won anything off clay since Japan 2010. And the competition is getting stronger with Murray and Del Potro now being mentally stronger and more formidable players on hardcourts.
    Basically in order for Nadal to win anything now, he has to beat at least 2 back to back Grand Slam champions, barring a surprise. Murray's now officially a threat to everybody which makes winning even more difficult for Nadal who is not exactly a spring chicken.
     
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  5. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    Not a chance. Even if Nadal retires today he still will end up with a better career than Djokovic will ever reach. Djokovic will do well to surpass Agassi.
     
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  6. Hood_Man

    Hood_Man Legend

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    I doubt he can catch Nadal at this point, especially since Nadal may still add to that figure in the next 2-3 years if he starts playing a shorter schedule.
     
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  7. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    Djokovic is just one year younger than Nadal.
     
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  8. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

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    He needs another 3 slam year....to have a chance....while assuming Nadal has stopped winning majors.
     
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  9. forzamilan90

    forzamilan90 Legend

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    Could happen, probably not. Nadal has the title of greatest ever on clay that elevates him above numerous others by default, and he's up in the greatest legends discussion, though quite far from the GOAT. Still though, Djko theoretically could strike a career with 10 or majors that might put him in the discussion, though I doubt even at his best major (AO) he gets anywhere the recognition that Nadal has at his best. Not sure how to rank if say Nadal ends with 11 majors, and that huge clay emphasis, yet tremendous results all across, and Djokovic with potentially a FO or two and a bit more balanced resume if he reaches 10 or 11 potentially.
     
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  10. 90's Clay

    90's Clay Legend

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    No way he manages another 6 slams. I can't even see Djoker passing Andre's 8 to be honest. Its possible though of course.. But he won't have that longevity because he requires so much on defense, speed and movement.

    Then that doesn't even count all those masters events ANdre and Nadal have.
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2012
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  11. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    I could see him reaching 9 possibly, that would be about the max IMO. He would need a French Open title to arguably outrank Agassi though I feel. Agassi's career slam counts for alot, especialy considering it was much harder to do then vs today.
     
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  12. Sim

    Sim Semi-Pro

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    Asking Novak to double his slam count to be just 1 slam behind Nadal is incredibly difficult. But since there are no youngsters breaking through yet, who knows. Plus, I don't think Nadal is done yet. He still has at least 1-2 more French Opens in him to add to the count.
     
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  13. BauerAlmeida

    BauerAlmeida Semi-Pro

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    Similar, but Nadal's will be a bit better.
     
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  14. tennisaddict

    tennisaddict G.O.A.T.

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    Cannot believe Nadal is leading by a wide margin. Given Nadal's comeback and that too a decent one seem to be a remote possibility, this poll needs updated..
     
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  15. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    Most people dont believe Djokovic will ever reach 11 slams. Some people believe Djokovic will never win Roland Garros to complete a Career Slam. Nearly everyone believes Djokovic will never be the GOAT on any major surface like Nadal is on clay (he could the Australian Open GOAT, but that is a sub division of a surface). Thus Nadal's comeback and whether he does anything that much more is irrelevant to how most people would vote on this poll. Anyway most would expect Nadal to win atleast another couple French Opens, meaning Djokovic would then need to reach 13 slams or more to match or surpass him in slam count, something close to nobody expects he will reach.

    I am surprised Djokovic even has as many votes as he has on this poll, but it is safe to say almost all of them are from Nadal haters. Who would bet their life on Djokovic's career and place in history passing Nadal's, maybe 2 out of 1000. The odds of any of Nadal passing Federer, Djokovic passing Nadal, or Murray passing Djokovic are very slim to none at this point, and considering Nadal potentially has many more years left than the much older Federer yet is almost the same age as Djokovic, and Murray is only 4 slams behind Djokovic and is the only one who might not have peaked yet, Djokovic ever surpassing Nadal is the most unlikely of them all.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 30, 2012
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  16. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Yeah,I think he will. Just take a look at the lack of quality competition he will have for the next 5 or so years. It would be a huge shock if he didn't win 12-15 slams when it's all said and done.
     
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  17. MichaelNadal

    MichaelNadal Talk Tennis Guru

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    Lol don't worry clarky, he won't even get close.
     
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  18. Towser83

    Towser83 Legend

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    Yeah I totally agree with you here. I wouldn't count on more than 9 slams but I would still count Agassi's the best career slam.
     
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  19. merwy

    merwy Legend

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    I actually agree with you about the "look at the lack of quality competition he will have for the next 5 or so years". But we don't know how Nadal will be doing. If Nadal would retire today, I expect Djokovic to gain in on his slam count. But if Nadal keeps playing he could win a few more RGs and maybe some slam outside of it and stay in front of Djokovic. They almost have the same age. And even if Djokovic wins more grand slams in the end, Nadal will always keep his record of 7 Roland Garros wins, which in my opinion also is an indication of how great his career was.
     
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  20. 90's Clay

    90's Clay Legend

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    Nadal will probably add on to his slam count by a few slams.. So even then DJoker is going to have to have some seasons where he grabs 2-3 slams every year. I'm not entirely sure he can do that. 7-8 more slams is quite a bit. And Murray has in a way caught up to him and Djoker's level has leveled off
     
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  21. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    it is funny you go back to that post of mine since I made a recent prediction of more than that. I guess I continue to vary as I gain and lose faith in the so called up and coming group. They and whether they pan out to worth a darn will mean as much to how many future slams Djokovic, Nadal, and Murray win in their more advanced age, as those players themselves will. It will be intersting to see how Raonic, Tomic, Dimitrov, Nishikori, Harrison develop, if any of them pan out to be slam caliber, and if so how many for those, and what the generation after that will be like.

    Either way the order of Federer-Nadal-Djokovic-Murray is unlikely to ever change, and I still would say even now the Nadal > Djokovic is the least likely of all (Nadal surpassing Federer as Open Era GOAT, Murray surpassing Djokovic, as unlikely as both are, are even more likely than Djokovic ever catching Nadal in career greatness). Even if Djokovic is arguably likely to achieve more than Nadal from here (just as Nadal is even more likely to achieve more from this point on than the 31 year old Federer, despite the questions about him now), Djokovic is still virtually certain to not make up the current mammoth gap in their careers on someone only 1 year older than him, when both probably have already hit their all time peak of play and short term results (Nadal 2008 and 2010, Djokovic 2011).
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 30, 2012
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  22. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    People don't realize how hard it is to win Grand Slams. Djokovic needed one of the greatest years of all time in 2011, a great 2012, and one Slam from 5 years ago to get to where he is now : 5. And he's 25.5 years old now, with 1.5/2 years of his prime left, probably. He'll need to do well just to get to 10 Slams. Nadal is at 11 Slams and unless he retires tomorrow, he'll likely add a couple of Slams at the FO alone. For all we know, Djokovic might need to win 10 more Slams to go past Nadal.
     
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  23. 90's Clay

    90's Clay Legend

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    Ehh... Its not really that hard to win slams today if you are among the top 4 though:confused:. In fact, with the homogenizations of conditions over the past decade, and lack of depth in the field (and upcoming generation of "players" I use that term loosely), it couldn't be any EASIER for the top guys.

    Court specialists are gone, the day you had to worry about going from slow clay to lightning fast grass and hard court season is gone etc..
     
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  24. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    Homogenization = More number of competitive players at every Slam.

    The fact that only the top 4 guys win everything doesn't mean it's easier winning Slams. How many guys have won more than 1 Slam in the past 10 years? 3. Back in the 90s? Way more. Maybe it's just a more exclusive club, now?
     
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  25. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

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    Djokovic surpassing Nadal is just as unlikely as Nadal surpassing Federer at this point. It will likely end up:

    Federer>Nadal>Djokovic

    unless a miracle happens imo. I see Djokovic winning 8 or 9 slams total. He does not strike me as the type of guy who will be interested in playing at the highest level for more than a couple of years. To me, he seems like a guy who would have other interests outside of tennis much more so than even Federer and for sure Nadal. I don't think tennis will be Djokovic's life to that extent. I could be wrong and I could change my mind in time.
     
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2012
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  26. absurdo

    absurdo Rookie

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    nadal will end up with a better career, i would say. and that is good, because he is the superior player, out of the 2.
     
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  27. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    It is funny the person who bumped it did so saying he expected Djokovic would gain ground in the poll, yet since the bump Nadal gained another 8 votes and Djokovic none, lol!
     
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  28. Towser83

    Towser83 Legend

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    To be honest I didn't notice when your post was from, but you have changed you mind quite a bit in just over a month ;)

    But actually, when you bring up the no new players on the horizon factor, I can see that point too. Djokovic might end up with over 10 slams... but he might not. I can't decide. He might simply get bored with tennis, he seems to have other interests and might even get into some sort of political role in Serbia in the future. But unless Nadal is finished, he will still pick up enough to stay ahead of Djokovic.

    Also agree that Nadal surpassing Federer is more likely than Djokovic surpassing Nadal. Murray could surpass Djokovic as he is only 4 slams behind, but it will depend a lot on next year imo. If Djokovic had a 3 slam year I would say Murray won't catch him (at best it would be 8-2, possibly 8-1) but if they stayed even or Murray gained ground thn possible.
     
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  29. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    My odds would be:

    Nadal surpassing Federer: 15%
    Djokovic surpassing Nadal: 7%
    Murray surpassing Djokovic: 12%

    All extremely low. Djokovic passing Nadal the lowest of all though.

    I am interested to see how soon the up and comers will start winning slams and how much the Djokovic/Nadal/Murray, and maybe even still Federer group collectively will continue to win the next few years though.
     
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  30. 90's Clay

    90's Clay Legend

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    We may have to wait a few years for that one.
     
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  31. papertank

    papertank Hall of Fame

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    Nadal is comfortably the 4th best player of all time, and may rise by the end of his career. Djokovic may get close to him in number of slams, but there are other areas in which Djokovic will never come close to Nadal. Nadal has a dominating record against the undisputed GOAT, and is by far the best player of a single surface. Djokovic can't compare to that.
     
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  32. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    I think that's pretty conservative. I think he easily surpasses that number by some margin.
     
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  33. adamX012

    adamX012 Rookie

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    Nadal is still pretty strong for future games.
     
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  34. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    Who're 2 and 3 on your GOAT-list?
     
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  35. papertank

    papertank Hall of Fame

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    Laver and Sampras. I think Nadal could possibly pass Sampras by the end of his career, but they are very hard to compare as their achievements are totally different.
     
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  36. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    I'm confident Nadal will go past Sampras by the time he's done. As it stands, though, Sampras has to be rated slightly higher.
     
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  37. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

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    I don't think so Clarky. Remember this is a guy who won his first slam in 2008 and then took another three years to win the rest of his slams so far. I just don't see him as tennis-crazed as a Federer or Nadal. It takes tons of sacrifice to continue dominating for years. Federer was able to do it for four or five years, that is very rare. Look already at the year Djokovic had in 2012 compared to his 2011 year. Djokovic was only able to completely dominate for less than a year and then his level came down. I also think he seems like a guy who has other interests and will become bored of the grind in a couple of years. That is just my feeling. I could be incorrect. I say Djokovic ends his career with around 8 or 9 slams. I reserve the right to change my mind in the future however, lol.
     
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  38. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    Novak won't even get close.
     
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  39. kOaMaster

    kOaMaster Hall of Fame

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    I don't think he'll come close - because Nadal isn't done yet and I can't see novak winning at least 1 major more than nadal for 6 years.
     
    #39
  40. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    Novak is known to go on random tears, though.
     
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  41. christinamaniac7

    christinamaniac7 Semi-Pro

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    No way in freezing hell will nole have a chance to even with nadal...
     
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  42. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Yes he will.
     
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  43. tennisdad65

    tennisdad65 Hall of Fame

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    Nadal 15 - Novak 10
     
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  44. Agassifan

    Agassifan Hall of Fame

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    Similar type of career, although Rafa will have 70% of his slams at one venue.
     
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  45. mattennis

    mattennis Hall of Fame

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    You both are saying exactly the same thing.

    For the top 3 ( now top 4 ) winning GS tournaments in this era is easier than in any other era, which is exactly the same as saying that for the players outside the top 4 it is more difficult to win a GS tournament than in any other era.

    Given that almost all the GS tournaments have been won by the same top 4 players in the last years, what you both are saying is a tautology.

    And it is mostly a result of homogenization of playing conditions and baseline game being the only one winning playing style today.
     
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  46. Ms Nadal

    Ms Nadal Semi-Pro

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    I don't think so.
     
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  47. mattennis

    mattennis Hall of Fame

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    In spite of that, I think Nadal will not reach 17 GS, and Djokovic will not reach 11 GS (Murray may reach 5 GS).

    In fact if I had to bet I'd say that at the end of their careers it will be:

    Federer: 17 GS
    Nadal: 12 GS
    Djokovic: 9 GS
    Murray: 5 GS

    or something along this line.
     
    #47
  48. Ms Nadal

    Ms Nadal Semi-Pro

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    I think Rafa can win some more slams. So he better return to give his fans some more great memories to add to the collection!
     
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  49. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Not me,and the only memories over the past 2 years as a Nadal fan have all been bad. Wasn't much joy to be taken from 2011 or 2012.
     
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  50. PrinceMoron

    PrinceMoron Hall of Fame

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    Do you miss Nadal?
     
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