Will Federer lose #1 this year?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by JuliusWinto, May 22, 2010.

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Will Federer lose his #1 ranking at some point this year?

Poll closed Nov 18, 2010.
  1. Yes

    60.0%
  2. No

    40.0%
  1. JuliusWinto

    JuliusWinto Rookie

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    Will Federer lose the number 1 ranking sometime this year? I know he will probably at least make the semis of Roland Garros, but what do you think will happen after Wimbledon? Before the U.S. Open? After the U.S. Open? At the year end Masters?
     
    #1
  2. vortex1

    vortex1 Banned

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    He will lose #1 after Wimbledon and possibly regain it after USO.
     
    #2
  3. FedererUberAlles

    FedererUberAlles Professional

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    it's highly likely, Nadal's playing well, and Federer's rounding out his career
     
    #3
  4. djokovicgonzalez2010

    djokovicgonzalez2010 G.O.A.T.

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    Probably, unless Fed decides to start caring about events that aren't Slams
     
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  5. TheLoneWolf

    TheLoneWolf Banned

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    If Fed doesn't reach RG SF and Nadal wins it, Nadal regains #1. Unlikely, but possible. Although given Fed's YTD statistics (19/6) it is not too far fetched.

    When Wimbledon comes around it all depends on Rafa really. Fed has all to defend and Rafa has nothing to defend, so it's going to be a way for Rafa to gain a lot of free points.
     
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  6. JuliusWinto

    JuliusWinto Rookie

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    Yeah, I think Federer definitely loses it after Wimbledon, and maybe for the rest of the year.
     
    #6
  7. cork_screw

    cork_screw Hall of Fame

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    Have you seen the draw? If he doesn't it would be a miracle. If nadal had to play every top ten player and then play federer in the finals, he would still win. He's that good on the surface. I don't know why anyone ever doubted him. I saw a poll on atpworldtennis.com where people chimed in how many clay court titles he would win this year and the overwhelming majority chose 2, that was because he was complaining about his knees and when I saw that I just laughed to myself because even on bad knees this guy just hits with so much spin aggression and can cover some ground. I don't see him not dominating clay until he gets to be around 27 yrs old. Nobody comes close to what he does on clay.
     
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  8. JuliusWinto

    JuliusWinto Rookie

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    For those answering no, I'm pretty sure that I will be laughing all the way to the bank. Use your reasoning skills, everyone. This doesn't mean he won't finish number 1, but he will very likely lose it at some point.
     
    #8
  9. davey25

    davey25 Banned

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    What I expect to happen is Nadal to win Roland Garros and Federer to be runner up. Then for Federer to win Halle and Nadal to either win or be runner up at Queens. I am not sure what has to happen at Wimbledon for Nadal to take #1 after that then, but I am pretty sure even if Federer wins there that Nadal can be #1 with some kind of good result.
     
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  10. OKUSA

    OKUSA Hall of Fame

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    my reasoning is that federer always comes through at grand slams, what is it 23 straight semis now? seriously, why is this year the year? he already showed us he can compete with nadal on clay and pretty much beat the next best clay courter atm in gulbis or ferrer (and don't say verdasco, please).

    federer will no doubt in my mind get to the finals, if he beats nadal then wimbledon is a breeze, if he doesn't then i have my faith that he will defend wimbledon. and without del po at the USO, only davydenko can beat him and we all know how good he is in slams against roger

    my only worries is that he might take off a lot of months after the USO and he could lose it there after he hits 300 weeks
     
    #10
  11. Carsomyr

    Carsomyr Hall of Fame

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    Extremely likely; his body needs more rest than it did a few years ago to be in peak condition for the most important tournaments of the year, which is why his motivation has been absent. While it's entirely possible that he'll win another major this year, I don't expect him to finish #1 in the world.
     
    #11
  12. abraxas21

    abraxas21 Professional

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    He will definitely lose it after Wimby.

    I'm not sure if he'll regain it before the year ends.
     
    #12
  13. norbac

    norbac Legend

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    I'm thinking Nadal, if healthy, takes it after Wimbledon.
     
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  14. Puredrivetennis

    Puredrivetennis Rookie

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    yes.i dont, however think it will be the last time we seem there.
     
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  15. Rhino

    Rhino Legend

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    I'd be very surprised if he's still #1 after Wimbledon but he could easily regain it before the WTF.
     
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  16. Sentinel

    Sentinel Bionic Poster

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    Most likely Wimbledon.
     
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  17. gold soundz

    gold soundz Professional

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    I think the real question is: Will Federer or Nadal finish as #1? I think Nadal will.
     
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  18. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    Probably Nadal will take over. But a lot could depend on Wimbledon in that regard. If Fed manages to defend Wimbledon, and sees Nadal is closing in, he might go for some smaller events and stands a chance.
     
    #18
  19. Hitman

    Hitman G.O.A.T.

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    He will likely lose it to Rafa after Wimbledon, provided he does well at the FO.

    Not sure if he will regain, it depends how everyone is playing around the USO.
     
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  20. Talker

    Talker Hall of Fame

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    He'll lose it, Nadal is closing in and can get a ton of points at Wimby.
    At least there's some pressure on Roger, he'll have to push himself and that means some more dramatic matches. :)
     
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  21. HollerOne5

    HollerOne5 Semi-Pro

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    Lets be honest, if Rafa wins RG (likely) they will already be really close. All rafa will have to do is probably make QF or SF at Wimbledon to assure #1 after that tournament, seeing how he has 0 points to defend.

    Rafa - US Open #1 Seed
     
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  22. niff

    niff Legend

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    Yeah I fully expect Rafa to overtake him after Wimbo, he has sooo many potential points in the next few months.
     
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  23. kournacopia

    kournacopia Banned

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    Actually I don't think Nadal will do that well at W, depending on the draw. Big hitter will take him out. Others have begun to figure him out.
     
    #23
  24. TheTruth

    TheTruth G.O.A.T.

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    That's a good post, and a good thought. Dramatic matches. That would be nice.
     
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  25. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    It'd be too bad if Federer lost the #1 while losing Wimbledon, because Nadal did well there. Then you'd have a #1 ranked player with less slams than the #2. But other tournaments matter too, and if they weren't included in the rankings, they wouldn't be played.

    That said, if he's #2 with 2 slams and Nadal is #1 with 1 slam, we all know who's really had the better year up to that point.
     
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  26. Puredrivetennis

    Puredrivetennis Rookie

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    Very well said.
     
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  27. TheLoneWolf

    TheLoneWolf Banned

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    I guess the only one that hasn't figured him out is Fed. Nadal has taken 6 out of their last 7 matches. LOL.
     
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  28. TheLoneWolf

    TheLoneWolf Banned

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    I don't agree. It's way tougher to make the clay MS trebble like Nadal just did than to win AO. Someone wins AO every year. Nadal is the first guy to ever win three MS on clay consecutively. And he made more points in the process too (3000 vs 2000.)
     
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  29. Puredrivetennis

    Puredrivetennis Rookie

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    Thats just nasty.
     
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  30. mandy01

    mandy01 G.O.A.T.

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    If he does,he does.Roger's record at the top is anyway insane and he'll be short of breaking Pete's record just by a couple of weeks or so( if he loses it right after RG.)
    .He's still had a great run at the top .
     
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  31. Cassius Clay

    Cassius Clay Banned

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    Fed will fall one week short of beating Sampras's most weeks as #1 record.
     
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  32. TheLoneWolf

    TheLoneWolf Banned

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    What's nasty about it? It's simply true, don't you agree?
     
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  33. TheLoneWolf

    TheLoneWolf Banned

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    So did Mirka, until she put one stone too many. :)

    ^^Hopefully young children and innocent souls won't get it.
     
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  34. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    I can think of a lot of arbitrary combinations that no one has ever done before. I mean, Federer's runs on HC at his peak were pretty unparalleled and insane.

    They're very impressive. So too is Nadal winning the 3 MS on clay consecutively.

    But in the modern game, all is subsumed to the Majors.
     
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  35. pjonesy

    pjonesy Professional

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    Although Federer has the most semifinal appearances in consecutive slams, owns the most Grand Slam singles titles, has never retired from a match and is widely considered the GOAT, he wants more. Just like Sampras played in an excessive amount of tournaments late in the year to extend his year end # 1 streak, Roger will do whatever he can to beat Sampras' weeks at # 1 record. I'm not saying he will do it, he has to defend Roland Garros, but he will be throwing the kitchen sink at people.
     
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  36. TheLoneWolf

    TheLoneWolf Banned

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    But a sequence of 3 consecutive MS has never been achieved by anyone before. That's not a random event, anymore than Fed making it to 23 consecutive SF in slams is a random event. Credit where credit is due.

    Plus, the points don't lie.

    It's very simple really, if you were a tennis player (either Fed or Nadal) and someone offered you one of these 2 bets:
    1. I'll give you $1 Million to win the next Slam.
    2. I'll give you $1 Million to win the next 3 MS tournaments.

    Which one would you choose? It's just very simple.
     
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  37. TheLoneWolf

    TheLoneWolf Banned

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    The GOAT? I laugh when people talk about GOAT. The mere concept of GOAT is a joke, because it lacks any rigor. How can the GOAT be 14-7 against his main opponent anyway? The argument falls appart right there.
     
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  38. Michael Bluth

    Michael Bluth Semi-Pro

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    I'm sure Federer is really regretting his poor performances at IW and Miami now. Considering how the other top players collapsed in those two events he could easily have taken both and have an insurmountable lead at no.1.

    That said, he should probably get to the final of Roland Garros and win Halle, ensuring that he breaks Sampras' total weeks record.

    To keep no.1 after Wimbledon he has to hope that Nadal gets Roddick in his quarter or something similar. If Roddick were to beat Nadal in the quarters (quite possible considering Andy took out Rafa on the slow Miami hardcourts) and Federer won the title that would be enough to hold on to number 1 I think.
     
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  39. Cyan

    Cyan Hall of Fame

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    Hopefully.
     
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  40. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    Right, it has never been done before, but neither was Federer's 23 consecutive SF; or his dominance over the HC during his peak. But all of these things are secondary to the Majors.

    And I would certainly prefer to win the next slam, as opposed to the next 3 MS tournaments, if I were a tennis player who cared about history. (as me, I'd just pick whichever combination gave me the most money).
     
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  41. kraggy

    kraggy Banned

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    But lets just assume for the moment that the ranking and point system was not designed to please YOU but rather it was designed by a group of people who know a lot more than armchair enthusiasts. If the ranking system says A is no 1, then A is no 1. Even when Jankovic was no 1 without winning a slam, it just showed that on a day in day out basis, she was better than everyone else in the field.
     
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  42. Danstevens

    Danstevens Semi-Pro

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    From how the points stand at the moment, I would imagine that Federer will lose number one after Wimbledon but then regain it later on in the year on the hard courts.
     
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  43. kraggy

    kraggy Banned

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    I think that's quite accurate. I think a somewhat reasonable scenario is that Nadal wins FO and Fed makes the final and then Fed wins Wimby and Nadal makes the final. This scenario would result in Nadal becoming no 1. Surprisingly, Nadal has more points to defend from the HC Masters events in the latter half of the season than Federer. So it is unlikely that Nadal can build on his lead there, it is more likely that Fed would catch up there.

    In the end I think it will come down to the US open. For Nadal to end the yr as no 1, I think he will have to do better at the US open than Fed. Improbable but not impossible by any stretch.
     
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  44. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    I'm not disputing that. I'm saying that the slams are more important than the #1 ranking. The #1 is basically a ranking of a blend of consistency and good play...or it can be.

    To win a slam requires superb play. Doing that is better overall in the context of one's career than being #1 but winning no slams.

    Times when you have players ranked #1 who haven't won a slam indicate some kind of deficiency. That could be the case if Federer declines a little in a year or so, but still wins 1 slam for a while, and Nadal doesn't get anything other than the FO, with the USO and AO going to different people. You could then have a consistent but non-superb player like Davydenko getting the #1; more likely would be Murray. I could see him going far enough in slams, even finals, but losing to guys who were playing better and who were just better in the biggest moments (like Federer), but being more consistent overall.

    That would indicate a deficiency in the field, to be blamed on the consistent players (presumably Murray) who'd be ranked so high, but fail to win slams, because older greats (like Federer, Nadal) could raise their their level for 1 slam, and random but inconsistent power-houses like Delpo come out.

    Yes, in that case, Murray would be #1, but there'd still be a huge knock on him. I could easily see it happening, him being a slamless #1 during a period in which Nadal and then Federer decline, but still win slams, and other players are too hot for Murray to handle.
     
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  45. statto

    statto Professional

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    What goes around comes around. Nadal was #2 in the world after Wimbledon 2008 even though he'd won two out of three slams and more masters than Fed that year.

    Nadal's post-Wimbledon season last year was poor, so it's hard to see where Federer takes points off Nadal after Wimbledon. I'd also suggest that if Nadal makes the Wimbledon final he'd be a warm favourite against Federer, which would result in another 1600 point swing.
     
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  46. davey25

    davey25 Banned

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    Nadal's post Wimbledon season was not that poor for his standards. In fact it is quite typical of his standards. Making the semis of the U.S Open is not poor for him, he never has fared better than that. His fall season results are never that good. If anything it would be alot easier for Federer to improve on his results at that point than Nadal. It is more likely Federer wins the U.S Open which he failed to do last year than Nadal making the final there. It is also much more likely for Federer to improve his results after the U.S Open than Nadal if he is actually willing to put in the effort. Nadal actually collected more points after the U.S Open last year I think than Federer, and on that kind of surface which is Nadal's worst it would be very doable for Federer to reverse that if he actually chooses to push himself.
     
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  47. JuliusWinto

    JuliusWinto Rookie

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    I think he loses it after wimbledon for the rest of the year.
     
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  48. statto

    statto Professional

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    I take your point about Nadal's season, but Federer improving is a huge if. He's only won two masters titles in the past three years, so he's clearly getting to a point where he has to pick his spots to give maximum effort. He also has to defend a win at Cincy.

    I think that if Nadal can win the French and make the final of Wimbledon then the gap will be too big for Federer to make up before the end of the year. I reckon his only shot would be going 5-0 at the ATP finals, but that's a big ask.
     
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  49. davey25

    davey25 Banned

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    I am not a Federer fan but I think he only puts in the effort at these events if he feels he needs to. I think if he were to lose #1 he would put more effort into them towards the end of the year if he felt there was a chance of him retaking. And if that is the case I expect he would have better results than Nadal pretty much everywhere after Wimbledon as we are now into surfaces that are not Nadal's favorites, and after the U.S Open even moreso. We will see though.
     
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  50. kraggy

    kraggy Banned

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    Actually if you look at Nadal's results post Wimby they are not half bad!

    Toronto - Q
    Cininatti - S
    Beijing - S
    Shanghai - F
    Paris - S

    Federer

    Toronto - Q
    Cincinnati - W
    Basel - F
    Paris - R32

    Despite the fact that Fed won Cincinnati, he didn't do much at the other events. Thus Nadal has more points to defend (outside of the US open).

    My impression was that Nadal had not done well last fall but even with that he managed to rack up some points.
     
    #50

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