Will I get bumped next season?

Discussion in 'Adult League & Tournament Talk' started by roman40, Sep 21, 2011.

  1. roman40

    roman40 Rookie

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    I might be asking the obvious here. I self-rated 4.0 this season, first time playing USTA, played JV high school and just for fun off/on after that (I am in my early 30s). Actually, recovering from cancer, started season about 1yr after last chemo treatment (in remission now, all good).

    Do you think I'll get bumped? I am bit divided about this possibility, since I know from experience that 4.5 will be very, very hard, and it won't be easy to find a team in my area either. Here's my record:

    WON - (Opponent’s record is 1won/3lost) 6-3,6-1 - #1 Singles - Home
    WON - (Opp is 13/6, tricky slice player, he beat me earlier in season 6-2,6-2) 7-6,6-4 - 1 Singles - Home
    WON - (Opp is 5/6) 6-2,6-2 - 1 Singles - Home
    WON - (Opp is 10/3, got a bit lucky, best player in a league by far) 3-6,7-5,1-0 - 1 Singles - Visitor
    WON - (Opp is 8/5) - 6-4,6-4 - 1 Singles - Visitor
    WON - (Opp is 2/5) - 6-2,6-2 - 1 Singles - Home
    WON - (Opp is 1/9, beat him earlier in season 6-3,6-1) - 6-2,6-2 - 1 Singles - Visitor
    WON - (Opp is 5/2, strong player, exploitable backhand) - 4-6,6-1,1-0 - 1 Singles - Visitor
    LOST - (Opp is 10/4, super consistent, lot’s of topspin, exploited my “weak” 1h bh) 6-4,6-0 - 1 Singles - Visitor
    LOST - (Opp is 3/4, choked this one, was asked to play a tie-breaker (instead of agreed 3rd set) as a courtesy to visiting team who needed to leave, what can I say, I am nice, but I paid for it, it won’t happen again) - 6-4,6-7,1-0 - 1 Singles - Home
    LOST - (Opp is 4/0, don’t recall what happened here, but good player) - 6-1,6-2 - #2 Singles - Visitor
    WON - (Opp is 1/9, mentioned above) - 6-3,6-1 - 2 Singles - Home
    LOST - (Opp is 13/6, mentioned above) - 6-2,6-2 - 2 Singles - Home
    WON - (Opp is 2/6, 3+ hr match, lots of deuces, I think I demoralized this player for the rest of the season, great athlete and good strokes/serve, but impatient, beat himself) - 5-7,6-4,1-0 - 2 Singles - Visitor
     
    #1
  2. roman40

    roman40 Rookie

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    BTW, took a bunch of lessons and improved quite a bit throughout the year.
     
    #2
  3. SweetH2O

    SweetH2O Rookie

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    I'll guess yes, only because you were self-rated and played mostly #1 singles. Self-rated players seem to be bumped a bit quicker than established players, same with players on the singles lines. But your wins weren't blowouts (in the eye of the USTA computer), so I wouldn't be surprised if I'm wrong.
     
    #3
  4. dizzlmcwizzl

    dizzlmcwizzl Hall of Fame

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    Certainly hard to say based on the brief descriptions provided.

    However I will make two observations ...

    1) It is a little easier to be bumped up if you are self rated or have played relatively few matches. In this area your limited playing experience "aids" any upward movement.

    2) The algorithm to my understanding is a running average where your last 3 matches are averaged against your running total and therefore count more towards your average than your earlier matches ... So you could have the exact same results against the exact same opponents as another player, but if your "impressive results" come at the beginning of the season and another player has his "impressive results" at the end of the season you will have different year end ratings.

    SO assuming those two statements are true and your descriptions are accurate I think you have a good chance of remaining as a 4.0.
     
    #4
  5. J_R_B

    J_R_B Hall of Fame

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    I would think no, but if they decide to do the "add 0.1 to everyone" thing again, then there's a chance.
     
    #5
  6. roman40

    roman40 Rookie

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    Sorry, I guess my post wasn't clear, the matches are listed starting from most recent. So, most of my loses come at the start of the season.
     
    #6
  7. beernutz

    beernutz Hall of Fame

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    Last edited: Sep 21, 2011
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  8. roman40

    roman40 Rookie

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    I did an extensive search and couldn't find it. I am in Northern California section.
     
    #8
  9. aurelius

    aurelius New User

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    Magic 8 ball says...signs point to no bump. You'll be an officialy 4.0 C (computed rated player).

    The main reason is you started the year with mixed results (creating a moving average that is lower). Your later wins weren't blowouts and (probably) won't be enough to pop you up to a 4.5 C for next year.

    One of the main assumptions is that all of those games were played in a 4.0 league. If you played up in a 4.5 league (as a self-rate), even 3 losses can get you bumped to a 4.5 if they're competitive.

    Also, an additional stat for your opponents that will have even more impact on your rating than their win-loss record, is what rating they are. For example, pummelling a 4.0 B (benchmark player) may get you moved up if they go to nationals and do well. Are the people you're playing 3.5 C's playing up, 4.0 S, 4.0 C, 4.0B?

    How well did you do against the players that went to sectionals/nationals and how well did they do at sectionals/nationals? The sectionals/nationals become benchmark players for that level that trickle down to the league when the computer makes decisions. If you beat a guy who dominated at sectionals/nationals, chances are he'll get booted up and you will too. If you are about equal with a guy who did ok at nationals and will stay a 4.0, you'll probably stay with him too.
     
    #9

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