Will Murray reach #1 next year?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by Evan77, Oct 4, 2012.

  1. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    OK, it might be too early to discuss this topic but I'm kinda bored so let's talk. Sure, we'll be speculating here but I'm curious to see what you guys think.

    Fed is still going strong, but let's be honest he is not getting any younger (and no, I'm not writing Fed off at all btw). Nadal is a puzzle to me because of his injuries so not sure what to expect from him. However, I have to point out that Rafa was injured in 2009 too and he came back and won 3 majors in 2010, so who knows?

    Djokovic is still going strong but not as strong as back in 2011. He doesn't seem to be as focused as last year. I think that Murray winning his first major will be a huge boost for his confidence. I guess we'll have a better picture after the AO.

    My personal feeling is that Murray could potentially reach #1 at some point next year, especially if Djokovic doesn't step up. Your thoughts?
     
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  2. TopFH

    TopFH Hall of Fame

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    He needs to backup his win at the USO plus some Masters. It is probably a good thing that he has performed rather bad at the Masters this year. Maybe he could go on a run (similar to Nole) next year.

    It is too early to tell, though.
     
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  3. BauerAlmeida

    BauerAlmeida Semi-Pro

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    Mmm, don't think so. Might get to 2, but I still think Djokovic and Federer will win more than him. At least Djokovic, but I think Federer has one great year left in the tank.
     
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  4. kaku

    kaku Professional

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    It's possible, he needs to focus on other tournaments too. He said an interview that this year he's been focusing on "the next major" rather than "the next match" or "the next tournament".
     
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  5. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    It's kinda funny because Murray has been so successful at masters yet he wasn't able to win a major last few years. This year he hasn't won any masters but he managed to win the USO.
     
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  6. kaku

    kaku Professional

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    I'm happy with Murray's year already. GS+OG is not a bad year at all. A masters would just be icing on the cake
     
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  7. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    I feel he'll win Shanghai.
     
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  8. Cup8489

    Cup8489 Legend

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    Roger Federer will not allow.
     
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  9. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    I fully expect him to be ranked over Federer next year. I actually think Federer will edge out Djokovic for the year end #1 next year, but looking forward there is no way he will get any better than he is this year at his age, and Murray is only going to get better from here. Unless Nadal comes back in awful shape Federer will probably be #4 by this time next year.

    Nadal is hard to say. It is almost impossible to say how strong Nadal will come back next year at this stage.

    I think it will be hard for him to rank over Djokovic though. Every year since 2007 Djokovic has ended ranked higher than Murray, even years Djokovic struggled like 2009 and 2010 and Murray did very well, he still found himself below Djokovic at years end.

    So I would say either #2 or #3, depending mainly on how Nadal plays in his return. Then again I do think Murray will be a year end #1 and 2 slam winner in a year at some point in his career before retiring. Maybe it will be next year.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 4, 2012
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  10. Russeljones

    Russeljones G.O.A.T.

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    If Nadal makes another AO final and takes the FO it would be hard for Murray to squeeze through to #1. The competition is still extreme even if we allow for Federer's deterioration.

    So I am thinking yes he can if Nadal is out of the picture for a couple of months (again).
     
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  11. beast of mallorca

    beast of mallorca Legend

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    So you took out Djoko out of the picture ? What happened to him then ?
     
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  12. Russeljones

    Russeljones G.O.A.T.

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    I thought his influence on the discussion was self-evident but you have proven me wrong :)
     
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  13. beast of mallorca

    beast of mallorca Legend

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    Hehe, my bad, didn't read the thread. Just the title. My apologies:oops:
     
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  14. Zarfot Z

    Zarfot Z Semi-Pro

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    Yes - Murray for 2013 YE #1. I can feel it in my bones.
     
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  15. Fedex

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    I can feel it in me waters.
     
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  16. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    I say yes. Nadal is a non-factor as he's only defending points for the next 6 months (looking at January to June 2013) and Murray is already higher in the race than Nadal.

    Federer is getting old, 32 next year, how much longer can he keep up at this level?

    The only obstacle is Djokovic 1.5.
     
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  17. merlinpinpin

    merlinpinpin Hall of Fame

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    So, to recap, you expect Federer to be ranked #4 at the beginning of October 2013, and then end up 2013 as #1? I guess he would need a pretty GOATish end of season to pull that one off... ;)
     
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  18. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

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    Very unlikely to happen, because not all 3 players that are ahead of him are going to choke and while Fed play flawless tennis.
     
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  19. Romismak

    Romismak Rookie

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    No, if Rafa will play and Delpo will be finally healthy than i can see 6 players playing for points at slams+Masters 1000 and no way Andy is going to get most of it, with Rafa out - i would say Nole will win most at clay courts - Andy also isn´t good on clay after all, to many guys can beat him there - comparing to HC and grass.

    No he won´t be No.1 next season, we will see if Roger or Nole ends up YEC No.1 for 2012, but if Nole ends up i can see him being No.1 for entire 2013 consecutive weeks- Roger will be again older and defending a lot, Rafa even if will be back will defend a lot from 1st half of 2012 + he will have less points than Andy himself, because didn´t play in 2nd half of 2012.
     
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  20. Russeljones

    Russeljones G.O.A.T.

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    Being beaten by Nadal will always hamper Murray in his quest for #1 ;)
     
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  21. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    some good points here. However, I think that Murray might surprise us on clay this year. His game style is well suited for clay (after all, he did grew up on clay, training in Barcelona etc). He is not as good as Novak or Roger but he did manage to win a set against Nadal in 2011 and had some match points against Djokovic in Rome but wasn't able to convert ...

    so, I wouldn't underestimate Murray on clay. The clay season next year will be very interesting and I'm really looking forward to it. I can only hope that Nadal will be healthy/fit enough to give his best.
     
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  22. Russeljones

    Russeljones G.O.A.T.

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    I won't be surprised if he doesn't make it past the QFs at the French, if that's what you mean by surprise. He has no weapons to win on clay.
     
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  23. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    respectfully agree to disagree with you. I think he does have weapons to win on clay. I can see him reaching semis at RG and going deep in clay masters (I don't think he can win RG with healthy Nadal, Fed and Djoko tho). of course, will he or not remains to be seen.
     
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  24. ruerooo

    ruerooo Legend

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    It depends on who else is healthy enough to play the whole season -- which these days seems to be a crap shoot no matter who we're talking about -- as well as how well they play.

    No one's ATP ranking is really dependent only on his own performance.
     
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  25. Surecatch

    Surecatch Semi-Pro

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    It's doubtful. I think he will eventually, but next year would be a tall order, with Federer and Djokovic to contend with. He'd have to go all Djoker' 2011, and I don't think Murray, as good as he is, has that in him to do.
     
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  26. Surecatch

    Surecatch Semi-Pro

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    The problem is not Federer OR Djokovic that he'll have to contend with...it's BOTH of them together that he'll have to be better than.

    Tall order.
     
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  27. NJ1

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    repost deleted
     
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  28. NJ1

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    The talk tennis obsession with Del Potro is mind numbing. He's not on the same level as the big four. Also, who is the mystery 6th player?

    I also don't think Nadal will be able to dominate Murray at the majors anymore, but no doubt his return adds even more intrigue. I can see 2013 balancing out with Federer slipping to 4 by the years end and the other three scrapping for the number one spot with Djokovic the slight favorite for it. After all, RG will always be an issue for Murray.
     
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  29. Romismak

    Romismak Rookie

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    I don´t believe in Andy´s clay season results, yes he was training in Barca, but he is clearly weakest from big 4 on clay, even Ferrer and Delpo are beter on clay.
     
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  30. Romismak

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    I don´t believe in Delpo´s level too, his 2009 level is overrated, but agree he is not as good, his serve is pretty average for his heights- not a weapon and his stamina is still issue, he is almost 2 years back from that big injury and he is not as good as he was, but he is very solid top 10 player and if he will be healthy-he always has some issues- very injury prone player, if he will be healthy i can see him competing with big 4 for points at slams and Masters 1000, howewer i don´t believe he will win in 2013 slam or make even final. - his best shot would be RG with Rafa out and not in Nole´s half - than i can see him making F

    Yes 6th player:D my mistake big 4 + Delpo and hope Berdych, Tsonga can say something at big events but we will see

    About Murrray- clay will be his worst surface always and simply he won´t be able to get enough points there to compete for No.1 at least not in
    2013.

    I expect Roger also to end 2013 at 4th place- that´s with healthy Rafa playing whole season of course, but Murray should have better 2013 than Roger, Nole i am confident will have better year and guys like Delpo, Tsonga, Berdych won´t have better year, so it is up to Rafa to be healthy and compete from AO until indoor season to get enough points that Roger will end up 2013 as No.4
     
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2012
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  31. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Murray isn't a complete no hoper on clay. He's made 2 RG QFs and a semi (where he created 18 break points against Nadal), has taken a set off Nadal at Monte Carlo and was a net cord away from beating Djokovic in Rome.
     
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  32. Fedex

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    And never converted one! Is that a record?
    Talking about records, how many tie breaks has Murray won in a row up to now and is that a record?
    Andy Clutchtastic Murray's tiebreaks been the making of him recently.
    He was always good in tie breaks but nothing like this.
     
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  33. 6-1 6-3 6-0

    6-1 6-3 6-0 Banned

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    He won't, because as soon as Nadal finds his form by winning AO 2013, he'll snatch back the #1 ranking, especially since he's defending virtually NO points at Madrid, Wimbledon, Toronto, Cincinnati, US Open, and some of the indoor tournaments (e.g. Tokyo, Shanghai and any more Nadal might miss). So Murray can reach #2.
     
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  34. Romismak

    Romismak Rookie

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    I am not saying he can´t play on it, i just said it will be always his worst surface, his RG SF - yes he had a lot of chances but he lost in straight sets and his route to the SF was vs Chela and Troicki... in 2009 he faced in QF Gonzalez he was outplayed, in 2010 he faced Berdych - he was outhit from the court, this season he played superior clay-courter and lost as was expected to Ferrer, he is not bad, but he is not among top player on this surface and this is limiting him from getting more points- where Nole can gain much more than Andy
     
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  35. kaku

    kaku Professional

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    Funny thing is, most of those things came last year. Hopefully he can find that sort of form again
     
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  36. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    I guess we all agree that clay is his worst surface, but there is a lot of room for improvement on clay for Murray. Grass is the worst surface for Djokovic, yet he managed to win Wimbledon in 2011, so you know what I mean. As I said in my original post, it's too early, but it's possible for Murray to reach #1, assuming that he has a decent clay season plus excellent HC season.

    I can see Murray going deep in some clay masters (Madrid, maybe Rome) and reaching semis at RG.

    However, it is a tall order especially if Djokovic and Fed don't slow down. Add completely recovered Nadal and it gets even more difficult, but it's not impossible.
     
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  37. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    to be honest, Murray is more likely to reach #1 than Nadal. I don't see Nadal winning the AO at all, mostly because of his lack of play (6 months is a long period for any tennis player), even if he is 100% recovered from his knee injury.
     
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  38. Romismak

    Romismak Rookie

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    Yes but Nole was lucky, i don´t believe he will have shot at Wimbledon ever again, and also there are not another 3 grass Masters besides slam... Murray is not even top 5 on clay and you can´t be No.1 if you can´t get enough points on clay. Roger when was No.1 was able to get a lot of points on clay, Nole also, if Andy wants to be No.1 he needs to do more in clay season-considering the fact HC is major surface where are to many players to share points between them. Murray would need like at least 1 Master 1000 title+ F,SF at others and minimum SF at RG-which is not so easy for him to do even with top 4 ranking than on other 3 slams. He haven´t beaten any top player at RG so far, if he can go past Nole, Roger, Rafa, Delpo even Ferrer or Berdych to SF that is good sign for him, but it will be very tough for him to make SF - i say QF is more likely at RG than SF for him.
     
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2012
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  39. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    all good points, nothing really to disagree with you, we are all just speculating here, except I wouldn't say that Nole was lucky to win Wimbledon. He had to def. Tsonga (who managed to def. Roger) and Nadal in the final. Novak won Wimbledon fair and square.

    However, it's more likely that Djokovic can win another Wimbledon than Murray winning RG IMHO. I do think that Murray will reach QF at RG, and if the draw opens, possibly semis.
     
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  40. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    I dont think Djokovic will win another Wimbledon or Murray win a RG, but Murray winning a RG is by far the more unlikely of the two. Djokovic has about a 30% chance to win a 2nd Wimbledon, Murray about a 3% chance to ever win Roland Garros. I wouldnt say Djokovic was lucky to win Wimbledon, but he also needs to be playing out of his mind like he was in 2011, and have a combination of things like his streak at the time vs Nadal that he couldnt lose to him even though Nadal is a much better grass court player normally, Roger not doing well and going out before he plays Djokovic, even not playing Murray probably, in order to win a Wimbledon. He runs into a dangerous grass courter in form like Tsonga, Berdych of 2010, Haas of 2009, he even likely loses, if he is not in Djokovic 2011 form. Grass is by far his worst surface, but he is still more of a threat than Murray is on clay.
     
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  41. Romismak

    Romismak Rookie

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    Maybe i use bad word, but i meant for Nole i feel it was 2011 Wimby or never, he will be making SF´s at Wimby in future he is to good for most guys, but grass is his worst surface and now with roof-with indoor grass tournament.. it won´t be easier for him to get 2nd Wimby for sure.Agree that more likely Nole will win 2nd than Murray RG. I would say Nole has little chance to win Wimby agian and Murray never will win RG. Maybe Andy will have fantastic HC season+Wimby and won´t need those additional points from clay season but with the way of today´s top guys - HC is just surface where everyone can play so it is almost impossible to dominate HC- but Roger did it and Nole did it until he was injured, so maybe Andy can surprise us all, but little chance to happen for this.
     
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  42. CCNM

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    It's definitely possible, but I'll believe it when I see it. I think the highest he'll ever get is number 2.
     
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  43. The Bawss

    The Bawss Banned

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    What about when Federer and Nadal retire? All it would take is a minor slip up from Nole and BOOM, we have a new weakest #1 player.
     
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  44. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest


    He isnt a no hoper but he probably isnt going to be winning big events on clay anytime soon (if ever). Points for reaching quarters and semis are closer to the points for losing 1st round than the points for winners.
     
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  45. 90's Clay

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    Its possible. Fed will no doubt dip next year in the rankings I think. Depending on what Nadal does when he gets back, Murray will just have to worry about him and Nole. So unless we get back Nole of 2011 ( doubtful) or Nadal 2010 (again doubtful)... Murray will have his chances
     
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  46. The Bawss

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  47. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    Agreed. It is hard to imagine he will do as well as Nadal and Djokovic on clay, but he can make it up elsewhere. Here is what I think he has to do to reach year end #1:

    1. Get back to winning numerous hard court Masters and performing great in those events. He hasnt been as good here this year, hasnt won one yet.

    2. Perform solidly on clay. Quarters or better of all tournaments, maybe a surprise final at one of the Masters if he can manage it, make semis of Roland Garros.

    3. Win atleast 1 slam but if possible win 2 of them. The latter would give him a much better shot at the year end #1.

    4. Do as he has been doing of late, continue to make semis or better of all slam events.
     
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  48. Russeljones

    Russeljones G.O.A.T.

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    Evan what I meant was he doesn't (at present) have the weapons to make inroads on the #1 on clay. He doesn't have to if he times his charge right and full credit to him if/when he does.
     
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  49. 6-1 6-3 6-0

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