Will Nadal fall to #3?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by フェデラー, Jun 21, 2009.

  1. フェデラー

    フェデラー Hall of Fame

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    Is this possible?
     
    #1
  2. Yes.....:cry::cry::cry::cry:
     
    #2
  3. フェデラー

    フェデラー Hall of Fame

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    Wow thats big. That mean Nadal and Federer will be in same half of the draw at US OPEN?!
     
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  4. pricey_aus

    pricey_aus Semi-Pro

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    Its not certain that they will be in the same half at the us, but yeah i guess its possible. wouldnt murray have to like...win the tournament however?
     
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  5. That would be awesome, though!
     
    #5
  6. flying24

    flying24 Banned

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    Not possible right after Wimbledon. Even if Murray wins the title he will be just a fraction short despite gaining 3500 points on Nadal, and Federer has to win the tournament to pass Nadal anyway. However will probably happen this summer.
     
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  7. egn

    egn Hall of Fame

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    Malakas did a post with all the calculations right after wimbledon it is impossible for Fed to be number 1 unless he wins though however Fed with a final and semifinal as long as Murray does not win or I think it is final even if Murray wins becomes number 1 by august when the olympic points drop. So as long as Fed has a strong showing at wimbledon he is pretty much guaranteed his number 1 I don't know I have to dig up the post but malakas did the calculations.
     
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  8. Badger

    Badger Semi-Pro

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    Really depends on when he comes back.
     
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  9. フェデラー

    フェデラー Hall of Fame

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    Well lets say Fed wins sw19, Murray gets to finals, Nadal could drop to no. 4 if Djoko gets to Semi's/
     
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  10. Fedgasm

    Fedgasm Rookie

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    It really is a shame to see him drop in the rankings just because he isn't playing Wimbledon. It is just the demanding style of play he brings every match.
     
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  11. tennis_hand

    tennis_hand Hall of Fame

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    no. also because he lost in FO.
     
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  12. ChanceEncounter

    ChanceEncounter Professional

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    Yeah, back-to-back bad/no showings in grand slams did him in, especially when Nadal had so many points to defend. It's conceivable that Nadal would be the 3rd seed in the US Open.
     
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  13. Hrandyrko

    Hrandyrko Rookie

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    This is going to be great! Seeing Federer just haul ass while Nadal is gone!
     
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  14. Shaolin

    Shaolin Hall of Fame

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    Gotta love that Fedgasm avatar.
     
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  15. Feña14

    Feña14 Legend

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    I think it's great that we can talk about this kind of thing happening. In the recent past the rankings haven't really been up for grabs at the top of the game, now we have a top 3 who are all really fighting for the number one ranking, with Djokovic not far behind either.

    I remember the last time we had something similar was with Roddick, Federer and Ferrero at the end of 2003, it was pretty exciting to know that the number 3 player was only one big tournament away from getting to the top.
     
    #15
  16. Fandango

    Fandango Rookie

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    So fed just needs to get to the semis to get number 1 rank back?
     
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  17. Fedgasm

    Fedgasm Rookie

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    Yes of course. Listen I'm a Federer fan so this is a nice thing for me, but I don't like to see a player not be able to defend 1400 points.
     
    #17
  18. egn

    egn Hall of Fame

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    Here is the info on stuff involving the rankings I am not sure but you can probably get if Nadal can fall to 3 but it won't be right after wimbledon looks like it will have to happen during summer hardcourts
     
    #18
  19. blackfrido

    blackfrido Hall of Fame

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    I hope so!
     
    #19
  20. T1000

    T1000 Hall of Fame

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    Nadal is out and Murray and Fed can gain a ton of points.
     
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  21. egn

    egn Hall of Fame

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    No that is actually quite out of the question.

    If Fed wins, Murray finals and Djoko semis Nadal will still be number 2 this is how the points will trickle down the day after wimbledon

    Fed 11220
    Nadal 10745
    Murray 9930
    Djoker 8610

    Than July 20th

    Fed 11220
    Nadal 10745
    Murray 10180
    Djoker 8610

    Than the following week toronto falls off and it is

    Fed 11210
    Nadal 9745
    Murray 9730
    Djoker 8450

    than the following week montreal falls off

    Fed 11060
    Nadal 9295
    Murray 8730
    Djoker 7840

    Than the olympics fall as well but summer hardcourts begin so whatever they earn that week will be added to the rankings so basically
    Fed 10860 + Montreal Result
    Murray 8730 + Montreal Result
    Nadal 8490 + Montreal Result
    Djoker 7430 + Montreal Result

    So it is impossible for Nadal to even be close to 4 by montreal...however I am not so sure about Djoker's I was using malakas guidelines and according to him the two semifinals he has at Mariselle and Sydney will go into his ranking if that is not the case he is 180 less but either way still number 4. Nadal is very safe until summer hardcourts begin if your scenario is to happen and is still in good striking range of Murray. This also shows how easy it is for Fed to put himself up in the rankings in the summer even if he does not win wimby and say only gets a semifinal he has so few points that a runner up/semi or a win and a decent showing could easily boost his ranking.

    Fixed now those should be right.
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2009
    #21
  22. フェデラー

    フェデラー Hall of Fame

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    1000 points is kind of close. Thats one ATP 1000 tournament, or two 500's etc. But then again Djoko would have to win and he isnt accustomed to that
     
    #22
  23. egn

    egn Hall of Fame

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    and Nadal would have to get 0 in those tournaments. Since they are both Master Series and we assume Nadal will be back by then that seems highly unlikely we will see though.
     
    #23
  24. malakas

    malakas Banned

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    no.Because their points from last years tournament will fall off,and also nadal will participate too.But it's pretty close.

    just a clarification,these are NOT my calculations.Duong from mtf should get the credit.
     
    #24
  25. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    Any calculations of how many points the top 4 have taken in 2009? Sort of 'race'-style?
     
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  26. boojay

    boojay Hall of Fame

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    Nadal will fall to 3 this year, 4 and lower next year.
     
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  27. Lobber

    Lobber New User

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    Nadal - 6885
    Federer - 5460
    Djokovic - 3870
    Murray -3780

    This includes all of their points this year, some of these are currently non-countable as last years points are better.
     
    #27
  28. Lobber

    Lobber New User

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    You've said Fed win, Murray final, but given them both 2000 points, need to take 800 off Murray's for this scenario and then follow it through. I think the biggest problem for Nadal would be Murray winning and Fed being the losing finalist, would make them all close.

    This would definitely favor Fed, as he has the fewest points (by quite a way) to defend in the run-up to the US Open.
     
    #28
  29. vive le beau jeu !

    vive le beau jeu ! G.O.A.T.

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  30. Leublu tennis

    Leublu tennis Legend

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    So this is simply a total of points won so far this year?
     
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  31. Lobber

    Lobber New User

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    Yes, that's right
     
    #31
  32. Leublu tennis

    Leublu tennis Legend

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    The answer is yes. The real question is when?
     
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  33. egn

    egn Hall of Fame

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    thank you i did not pay attention to that my bad.
     
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  34. egn

    egn Hall of Fame

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    If Murray wins and Fed finals I believe it can happen by as early as the end of july
    Nadal 10745
    Murray 10730
    Fed 10420

    those will be the points after wimbledon Murray passes him when gets his 250 and than Fed passes both when summer hardcourts drop off and I believe Murray than has the 2 spot. So it can happen within a month after wimbledon.
     
    #34
  35. galactico

    galactico Banned

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    im certainly no nadal fan, but i think that the rankings are ****ed up. Murray with 0 slams ahead of nadal with 6.

    to get into the top 5, you really should have to win a slam, or they should change the rankings on the amount of slams won. that would be cool
     
    #35
  36. egn

    egn Hall of Fame

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    So Federer could basically stay in pro tennis than for 50 years and be number 1. What the hell according to your system Rod Laver or Borg could come back and grab number 2, what do you do with Sampras if he decides to come backslap him tied for number 1. I agree top spots with no slam winners are rough but who the hell would be the top 5 right now, Fed, Nadal, Roddick, Hewitt and Safin when clearly Djokovic, Murray, Tsonga, Del Potro etc. are all playing better than Hewitt and Safin and on par or better than Roddick. I think slams need a bit of more weight but frankly if you only win a slam but play like crap all year (see Thomas Johansson 2002 or Marat Safin 2005) you don't deserve a top 5 spot and that is case and point.
     
    #36
  37. galactico

    galactico Banned

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    in tennis, slams mean everything, but you could say the amount of slams won in the last season, in this case, a season and a half
     
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