Will Rafa Surpass Fed's 17 Slams?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by surfvland, Jul 22, 2013.

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Will Rafa surpass Fed's 17 Slams

Poll closed Jul 17, 2014.
  1. Yes he will

    26 vote(s)
    22.0%
  2. No he won't

    92 vote(s)
    78.0%
  1. surfvland

    surfvland Semi-Pro

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    That's 6 more which means he'll probably have to win at least 2 more non clay slams, He's 27 years old, not a spring chicken anymore.

    You have the floor....
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2013
    #1
  2. Cormorant

    Cormorant Professional

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    #2
  3. OrangePower

    OrangePower Hall of Fame

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    Actually to surpass Fed would take 6 more.

    And no, I don't think Rafa can do it. If it was just a matter of will and determination, then I would not bet against Rafa, but reality is that his body is unlikely to hold up for multiple more years and that his play off-clay has already started to decline.
     
    #3
  4. rkelley

    rkelley Hall of Fame

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    And this assumes that Fed doesn't win any more, which admittedly at the moment seems like it will be the case. But maybe he's got one more in him.

    But even so, Rafa's got to win 6, and chances anywhere besides the French are not overwhelmingly great. There's a lot of players right now who have decent shot at at least one slam, and they're all capable of taking out Rafa. Also here are a lot of really, really great players who have only won 6 total during their whole career (Edberg, Becker).
     
    #4
  5. monfed

    monfed Guest

    If Fed wins #18 then it's curtains for Nadal IMO. In TW, you become GOAT one day and a mug another day. Things can change very quickly in tennis as we've seen so many times and you write off legends at your own peril so I think Fed should be given until atleast USO 14(yes a full year from USO 13) till he's written off for slams IMO and I think he can sneak in one more.(gut feeling is USO)

    As far as Nadal goes, I don't think he'll win slams in 2016. So he's got to win 5/9 slams(includes USO 13 btw) to equal Fed and 6/9 to surpass it. The former is improbable but possible, the latter is unthinkable because he'd have to equal Novak's current slam count!
    If he doesn't win USO 13, then he'd have to win 5/8 to equal Fed. That is a TALL order.

    But IF Ralph trips up at RG in 2014(esp against Novak) then his chase comes to a screeching halt imo.

    PS: Ralph's first slamless year on tour since he won his first slam way back in 05 is also pending and it could come in 2014/2015 as he's already broken the record and the law of averages will catch up.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 22, 2013
    #5
  6. storypeddler

    storypeddler Semi-Pro

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    I don't think it is impossible, but I think it is unlikely. Having said that, I have seen Rafa rise from the ashes before and go on a tear. Personally, I think he has several more French titles in him, maybe as many as 3 or 4. Time will tell. He would need to take a couple more somewhere and I absolutely think that's possible, but with the level of talent at the top right now, I don't think you can count on that happening. It wouldn't surprise me if he won 18, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he won a couple more RGs and that was it. There are two keys to it happening---he has to want it badly enough to keep playing that hard that long, and he has to avoid major injury. Time will tell.
     
    #6
  7. monfed

    monfed Guest

    Or given how much he struggled against Novak, RG 2013 may have infact been his last RG or even his last slam. Say it's his last RG, where are these 5/6 slams coming from? :lol:
     
    #7
  8. Bhagi Katbamna

    Bhagi Katbamna Hall of Fame

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    He will only need 5 more to surpass Fed as GOAT candidate. But no, he will not be able to.
     
    #8
  9. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    No. Not a chance he gets even close to 17 slams.
     
    #9
  10. storypeddler

    storypeddler Semi-Pro

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    I have one more point to make that a lot of people don't consider, but need to.

    Nadal has 12 slams, Federer has 17.

    Of Nadal's 12, he has twice beaten Djokovic and has six victories over Federer---8 of his 12 come against those at the absolute top of the sport when he played them.

    Of Federer's 17, he has a win over Djokovic and two over Nadal. That's 3 total. If you want to stretch it and add Murray to the list, fine, now he is at 6. Six of Federer's 17 slams are over the best (or near-best). The other eleven are over such luminaries as Philippoussis, old Agassi, Hewitt, Roddick (4 times), Safin, Soderling, Gonzalez, and Baghdatis.

    No, this doesn't prove anything. Fed played whoever stepped up in front of him at the slams. My point is that for the first third of his slam total, he was seeing a different face every time he played for one. It was Roger and the seven dwarfs. I don't blame him for that---he did all he was asked to do. But I absolutely do believe that if the situations were reversed and Rafa and Fed had the other's path to where they are now, Rafa would already have a high double digit slam total and Roger would be looking at something like 10. Because if the two of them had met over and over and over for slams, Rafa would have taken the lion's share of them. History bears that out. Nadal is as much or more a victim of the era he was born into as anything else. And if anyone benefits from the changing of the guard, it will likely be Djokovic. But that doesn't mean that if he ends up ahead of them all then he was better than them. Nope. Just that he, like Federer, came along at a good time during a lull at the top.

    Just food for thought.
     
    #10
  11. rkelley

    rkelley Hall of Fame

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    It's just so hard to guess this stuff. Last year at this time Fed looked great. He had had a great first half of 2012, really stretching back to late 2011, and a few more slams seemed totally doable. At the moment he doesn't look so good.

    Rafa couldn't even play a year ago. He was on fire through the French, and then lost at Wimbledon in the first week (first round, correct?). Totally didn't see that coming.

    Djokovic and Murray have been the really consistent ones, especially Djokovic.

    Think of this: if Fed wins the USO this summer (not the most super likely thing, but not outside the realm of possibility) then the big four will have gone two years with each man picking up one slam per year. That's parity.

    And save the '09 USO, it's been the better part of a decade that someone outside of the big four has won a slam.
     
    #11
  12. The Dark Knight

    The Dark Knight Legend

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    Might as well just ask are you a fed fan or a Nadal fan?
     
    #12
  13. OrangePower

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    No.

    The question can be answered objectively regardless of who's fan you are.

    Obviously anything can happen and anything is possible, but objectively speaking, it is not probable that Rafa will catch up to Fed in slam count.

    It's like asking "will Rafa win WTF 2013?"
    Sure it could happen, but even diehard Nadal fans would say it is unlikely, assuming they are being objective.
     
    #13
  14. mike danny

    mike danny Hall of Fame

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    federer met djokovic a lot in slam semis. you cannot blame him for winning just one against novak. it is stupid
     
    #14
  15. Emiliano55

    Emiliano55 Professional

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    It all depends on his knees. If they hold up, he will surpass Fed, no doubt about it.

    So real question should be "Will Rafa's knees hold up a couple of more years?"

    And that's something only he, Toni and his doctor knows.
     
    #15
  16. moonballs

    moonballs Hall of Fame

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    I really like Nadal fans to think that Nadal could get 6 more slams. Because if they completely lose hope, we will hear nonstop all day the same h2h nonsense.

    So even though I am not rooting for Rafa to win more slams, I am rooting for his fans to have absolute faith that he will win many many slams!
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2013
    #16
  17. 90's Clay

    90's Clay Legend

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    Lets see him win another slam off of clay first. If he continues on the path hes on he will have to win the next 6 French Open titles. Good luck with that
     
    #17
  18. borg number one

    borg number one Legend

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    I think it will be very difficult, but yes I still think it's quite possible. With Nadal, if he gets on a hot streak again, watch out. The US Open will be very telling. He's already established himself as one of the greatest players ever and he'll likely add to his resume. He may still have several more years to achieve more. The guy has been knocked down before and has gotten right back up in terms of his injury issues.
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2013
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  19. OKUSA

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    He's going to have to average at least 2 majors a year from now till 2017, kinda ridiculous considering he's only won multiple majors in only two years
     
    #19
  20. Def

    Def Semi-Pro

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    You're discounting Fed for not being able to play Fed.
     
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  21. Bobby Jr

    Bobby Jr Legend

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    Correct, it proves nothing.. Well, no more than pointing out that 2/3 of Nadal's majors are on his pet surface where they came as easily as Phelps' Olympic gold Tic Tacs, medals or whatever they are called in swimming.

    Without upping his performances outside of clay Nadal will not win another 6 majors to surpass Federer.

    If it is possible, more like food for lack of thought. Far too partisan in your mindset and example/analogy forming.
     
    #21
  22. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

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    I vote no. No player have won 6 more slams at the age of 27.
     
    #22
  23. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

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    Yes, but Federer won 5 slams from the age of 27 on and Nadal has had more rest periods due to supposed injury so who knows. If he wants to get within sniffing distance of Federer's slam count he will have to start winning slams off clay right away. Hard to predict just now whether he can do that or not.
     
    #23
  24. bullfan

    bullfan Legend

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    Doubtful. Nadal doesn't seem hungry enough, nor do I think his knees can take the punishment.
     
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  25. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    Nadal's game is gonna make it a lot tougher to win slams in old age than Federer's.

    That said, he has surpassed my expectations, and his record of winning at least 1 slam a year for 9 straight years is especially impressive considering his playing style. That's a record of excellent and longevity.
     
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  26. NADALbULLS

    NADALbULLS Banned

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    Nadal is a lock to win a minimum of 3 more Roland Garros titles. So that makes 15 slams his minimum. But I think its more likely he wins 3-5 more Roland Garros titles. Plus I think its extremely likely he wins at least one more US Open and/or one more Australian Open. Therefore best case scenario 19 slam titles. But if he gets to 19 he'll surely keep playing until he gets 20. Nadal is getting older, but the tour is now entering its weakest faze since the Roddick-Safin-Federer era.
     
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  27. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    "A lock to win", yeah sure. There is no such thing, and Nadal was hardly a "lock" this year. He wasn't a lock in 2011 when Djokovic had his incredible year, and was helped in winning that FO because Federer put in an excellent effort to take out Djokovic and didn't capitalize on his own excellence in the final. Nadal fans were relieved when Djokovic went out in the SF, as Nadal was not likely to beat Djokovic on any surface at that time.

    Nadal also barely got by Djokovic this year. He isn't getting any younger.

    Some of Nadal's fans talk like him winning 5-6 more slams is something of merely modest difficulty. It is incredibly hard especially at his age, and is a slam total that many all-time greats come to at the end of their careers.
     
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  28. NADALbULLS

    NADALbULLS Banned

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    Nadal said 2013 is his 'transition year' from unhealthy to healthy. His goal was to peak in 2014. That means Djokovic's big chance was 2013. The door has now been closed on Djokovic. Bye Bye. Nadal only gets stronger from here. And that's scary, considering Nadal hit 22 winners in the 5th set of RG semi, and then won the RG final in straight sets. He's slowly building his form (or quickly building his form I guess, considering he didn't expect to win this year). Of course, after winning 7 titles in 2013, he needed a break, and had no real motivation left at Wimbledon (as Uncle Toni noted). Its all about Roland Garros for Nadal. That's his sole focus. But I think after refreshing the mind and body, he'll be keen at New York and should win that again. I think he'll also be very keen in Australia to push Djokovic's face firmly into the ground. Nadal's dynamic backhand form at Indian Wells 2013 is a preview of what he can do on hardcourts.
     
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  29. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

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    There's no such thing is a lock at any slam. Nadal should have lost the FO this year. Clay is his best surface and he's feeling the heat, and that doesn't sound good on other surfaces.

    I'll tell you what is a lock. It's a lock that every year is getting increasing difficult for Nadal.
     
    #29
  30. OKUSA

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    A straight sets in the final where he got broken 3 or 4 times, pretty good if you ask me.
     
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  31. World Beater

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    His injuries have been dramaticized by the media and used as a crutch by his fans to explain losses.

    Nadal is still very strong at 27...

    I dont see him necessarily winnning slams 30+, but if he has two more solid years..he would have played a very full career with peak and prime years.
     
    #31
  32. Eragon

    Eragon Banned

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    I won't rule him out but it's looking very unlikely. I'd give him a 20% shot at matching Federer's 17 and a 10% shot at surpassing him.
     
    #32
  33. stoneagle

    stoneagle Rookie

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    it's possible, if novak and rafa teamwork together. since joker doesn't like roger that much, and roger doesn't like joker that much either. rafa and novak might talk together like this:

    rafa: hey joker, how about help me break roger's 17 record and i will help
    you win grand slams too eh?
    joker:how?
    rafa: every time we meet at grand slam finals let me win 6 more grand slam titles until i break rogelio's record.
    joker: sounds good! what's the deal for me?
    rafa: after i broke roger's 17 grand slams record i let you
    win the rest each time we meet in the finals since you have
    only 6 grand slams
    for now. how's that sound to you?
    joker: sounds good: let's work it out i don't like that @#@%%#@+ roger.
    rafa:done deal:):)
     
    #33
  34. namelessone

    namelessone Legend

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    Extremely unlikely.

    Rafa is declining pretty much everywhere and he's no longer a spring chicken.

    Even with his physical decline, I think there is also a mental one. He doesn't have the same hunger as when he was younger which is to be expected but that mental ability to hang in is what made Nadal stand out in matches where he wasn't exactly playing great tennis.

    Nowadays you only see Rafa giving his absolute all when he is with his back against the wall. He knew RG was his absolute last stand and fought tooth and nail there, especially in the fifth set against Djokovic. You hardly see that Nadal anymore.

    If he makes it to 14 he should be a very happy camper.
     
    #34
  35. Vcore89

    Vcore89 Hall of Fame

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    Rafa might equal Sampras' haul but not more, perhaps 13 is Rafa's max.
     
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  36. Vcore89

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    A smart Djoker might reply: How about let me win ''first'' till I equal your dirty dozen, then, I let you play catch up with Rogelio?
     
    #36
  37. Chico

    Chico Banned

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    There is no chance in hell.
     
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  38. Death Master

    Death Master Banned

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    negative. it is not happening.
     
    #38
  39. surfvland

    surfvland Semi-Pro

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    Good Point what slam did Fed take off of Flipper? Was it Wemby?
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2013
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  40. CRWV

    CRWV Rookie

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    in the last three calender years, Rafa has won 3 slams, none outside of Roland Garros, and made three other finals. in the last 4 slams, he has sat out of two and exited early from another.

    Even if Nadal recovers well from current injuries, one can't expect 2010 form. I take this to mean he needs at least 3 more French Opens and 2 non-clay slams to tie. no chance in hell.

    Were I a betting man, I'd say 1-2 more French opens and long odds on possibly winnin an Aussie. I'd be hesitant to put down money he ties Sampras.
     
    #40
  41. surfvland

    surfvland Semi-Pro

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    I think he will definitely surpass Sampras' 14
     
    #41
  42. furryballs

    furryballs Banned

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    i think theyre both just about done.maybe one more for Fed and thats a big maybe... and maybe 2 or 3 for Nads and thats a bigger maybe....also what would have happened if Djok got past Fed in all those semis they played?how many times would Nads have beaten Djoker?maybe Fed done Nads favour as well.
     
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  43. Death Master

    Death Master Banned

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    is it that important to top the roger`s mark in slams?

    clay warrior has his own history going? who the hell is going to be able to win 8-10 RG crowns ever? it is beyond impossible what nadal has done on clay for a bloody decade.
     
    #43
  44. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Absolutely not (pretty sure even a number of your fellow Nadal fans would disagree with you on ths one), even if healthy Nadal is not the man the beat anymore on surfaces other than clay (which consitute for 3 slams).

    Could he surprass it (Fed's slam record)? Sure and if he's healthy it certainly improves his chances of contending for the big tourneys (the same goes for any other player obviously) but it is in no way a guarantee he will even if healthy, the outcome doesn't depend solely on Nadal and his knees, outside clay it never did.

    Of course you're welcome to blame it on the knees if he fails (to match or surprass slam record) as I reckon you will.
     
    #44
  45. surfvland

    surfvland Semi-Pro

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    IKD if he has another run like he did at Indian Wells this year he could easily win another USO or Aussy.
     
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2013
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  46. Dedans Penthouse

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    Nope. Maybe three more GS, four tops.


    Four Tops...get it?

    __________________
     
    #46
  47. cork_screw

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    It sounds like a lot. But I think he can do it. You would be surprised what seems unlikely but what could happen.
    I think for the next 3 years at least, Nadal can sweep through the french open, that is is he doesn't win anymore after the age of 30. Also, I think he's a sure bet against all the top seeds minus djokovic. If djokovic gets knocked out before they meet, Nadal is the favorite in my opinion. He can beat down Murray and Fed and take out tsonga or berdych with ease.

    Hell, he might even win this year's US Open. I have strong feelings that Murray will have a good shot at this year's US Open, but he's never really gotten past Nadal on a hard court on a consistent basis. I would like to see how things pan out with a potential matchup. If things remain the same, I still say that Nadal could probably get at least 18 slams, but his record and his style on clay at RG is so strong that I could see him winning those titles up until 32 or 33. It's a slow surface, and you don't have to be a spring buck to run on a slow court, so Nadal isn't hampered with age on that surface, so for me it extends his shelf life on that surface, thus boosting his slam count over the years.

    For me it's a yes, with slight hesitation. But I do think he can wrangle a few scattered GS on hard court / grass in the next few years.
     
    #47
  48. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Of course, I consider Nadal to be one of the main contenders at USO this year, only second to Novak and Murray.

    However, that wasn't the point I was making which is that even when healthy Nadal was never as dominant force on HC and grass the way he was on clay so it isn't as simple as Nadal's knees fine=win which can actually be argued to be the case at the FO.

    So saying he will surpass Fed's slam count without a doubt if he's healthy is disrespectful to other current top players, namely Novak and Murray.
     
    #48
  49. -RF-

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    Rafa will only win one more FO, mark my words.

    He'll win 2 more non-clay slams max. 15 is the limit for him imo

    Federer to finish with 18 though. Wimbledon 2014/5 as his retiring tourney :p
     
    #49
  50. cork_screw

    cork_screw Hall of Fame

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    I agree with you to an extent. But you need to understand that earlier in Nadal's career he was still losing to players like James Blake and Davydenko. And you forget that players like Davydenko face federer a lot before hitting any finals appearances. So Nadal would still need to face these guys who might have taken him out potentially before reaching to a finals.

    But as Nadal got older, he really started to kick *** and I think his peak period might have been a little longer than fed's. I do agree with you that Nadal would have had a easier rode with some players in a certain crop, but I wouldn't take anything away from a 25 year old roger federer playing against some of the top guys now, as roger has proven that he just beat a peak murray last year at wimbledon at the age of 31.

    I do think the next crop of players in the near future will be hitting more Nadal style because that's who they grew up imitating. And you're going to see less power drivers like Andreev, Soderling, Blake who were kind of a big trend earlier 2000's and I feel like it's tapering down some.

    But in any case, you made some really good points and I agree with you on the majority with most of them.
     
    #50

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