Winning the title without dropping a set

[helterskelter]

After Borg did it at Roland Garros in 1980, no man won a Slam without dropping a set until Federer in Australia in 2007. Nadal then won Roland Garros without dropping a set in 2008 and 2010.

It's only happened three times in 35 and a half years (141 Slams, given that there was no Australian Open 1986), but does Djokovic have an outside chance of winning this Australian Open without dropping a set? I'd rate his chances at 3-5%. It's rather unlikely, but he has about as good a chance as anyone ever does, it seems to me.

 

[Adv. Edberg]

I actually think Djoko will drop a set or two. Not in the same match though.

 

[helterskelter]

I actually think Djoko will drop a set or two. Not in the same match though.

I do, too. It's not likely that he can win the title without dropping a set. But it doesn't seem to me to be completely unrealistic.

So, you think nobody will stretch him to five sets?

 

[Adv. Edberg]

I do, too. It's not likely that he can win the title without dropping a set. But it doesn't seem to me to be completely unrealistic.

So, you think nobody will stretch him to five sets?

Can only see Wawa do that, but he needs to have a very good day and they also need to meet...

 

[Nathaniel_Near]

Djokovic's 2016 = Federer's 2007 (in context of them being the seasons that follow their best ever seasons) = 2016 AO won without dropping a set.

In all seriousness though, one has to be tremendously dominant and maybe have a generous draw in order to achieve this.. or it has to be on clay where losing serve doesn't really matter. I think it's harder to achieve this on HC or grass.

Djokovic is at his peak and is arriving to his best Slam. If he's to do it, I think it would be at the 2016 AO.

Chances are 25% for me, so quite high.

 

[helterskelter]

Here are the sets Djokovic has lost in previous Slams:

US Open 2015: three sets (one each to Bautista Agut, Lopez, and Federer).
Wimbledon 2015: three sets (two to Anderson, one to Federer).
Australian Open 2015: three sets (two to Wawrinka, one to Murray).
Wimbledon 2014: six sets (one each to Stepanek and Dimitrov, two each to Cilic and Federer).
Australian Open 2013: four sets (two to Wawrinka, one each to Berdych and Murray).
Australian Open 2012: five sets (two each to Murray and Nadal, one to Hewitt).
US Open 2011: four sets (two to Federer, one each to Tipsarevic and Nadal).
Wimbledon 2011: four sets (one each to Baghdatis, Tomic, Tsonga, and Nadal).
Australian Open 2011: one set (to Dodig).
Australian Open 2008: one set (to Tsonga).

So, he has on four occasions won a Slam without being pushed to a fifth set (Australian Open 2008 and 2011, Wimbledon 2011, US Open 2015).

 

[Nathaniel_Near]

Can't think of a more perfect storm for him. He's flying, and he's hammered his main rivals to the ground. If Stan makes the final then it will be very difficult. We know he can spank Fed in 3 at the AO, so it depends on his discipline in the earlier rounds. If it's to happen, it's right now at his best Slam, while he holds the biggest lead over his peers since goodness knows when.

 

[helterskelter]

Djokovic's 2016 = Federer's 2007 (in context of them being the seasons that follow their best ever seasons) = 2016 AO won without dropping a set.

In all seriousness though, one has to be tremendously dominant and maybe have a generous draw in order to achieve this.. or it has to be on clay where losing serve doesn't really matter. I think it's harder to achieve this on HC or grass.

Djokovic is at his peak and is arriving to his best Slam. If he's to do it, I think it would be at the 2016 AO.

Chances are 25% for me, so quite high.

Agreed with most of this, but I think 25% is far too high.

I don't think it's pure coincidence that the US Open is the only Slam in which this hasn't happened in the last 45 years. Clay and slow hard courts = easier to break serve. Grass = not quite the same depth of competition. Faster hard courts (US Open for most of this time) = hard to break serve but also very deep competition.

 

[nowhereman]

Considering his draw and current form, it seems pretty likely that he'll do it. That is as long as he doesn't run into the best student of the game, RAFA. Especially if his forehand DTL is on.

 

[Nathaniel_Near]

Agreed with most of this, but I think 25% is far too high.

I don't think it's pure coincidence that the US Open is the only Slam in which this hasn't happened in the last 45 years. Clay and slow hard courts = easier to break serve. Grass = not quite the same depth of competition. Faster hard courts (US Open for most of this time) = hard to break serve but also very deep competition.

Makes sense, and it probably is too high and I didn't factor in that I only see Djokovic as about 70% likely to win the event into my calculation, but I think he's got a seriously good shot at it for the aforementioned reasons. I certainly think he's good enough to do it, but your point about HC and the depth of competition is pertinent. It makes sense that this hasn't been achieved at the US Open - indeed, it's no accident.

 

[abmk]

I think among these, Borg's in 76 Wimbledon was probably the toughest to achieve. Facing Tanner&Nastase on grass and not losing a set ? Impressive.

Even Federer couldn't do it on grass - in both 05 and 06 ( lost a set to gonzo and nadal respectively )

Oh and I don't see Djoko doing it.

 

[Dave1982]

I think OP's original guess of about a 3-5% chance is probably about where it should be.
Goes without saying that if anyone is going to do it then Djokovic is most likely, still a seriously tough & impressive thing to do though...hence why it's only happened handful of times over past 45 years or in last 180+ Slams contested.

 

[NatF]

I think among these, Borg's in 76 Wimbledon was probably the toughest to achieve. Facing Tanner&Nastase on grass and not losing a set ? Impressive.

Even Federer couldn't do it on grass - in both 05 and 06 ( lost a set to gonzo and nadal respectively )

Oh and I don't see Djoko doing it.

It was Kiefer in 2005, back when Kiefer always seemed to manage a set against him. Sort of like Kohli and Nadal - just one of those strange match ups.

 

[abmk]

It was Kiefer in 2005, back when Kiefer always seemed to manage a set against him. Sort of like Kohli and Nadal - just one of those strange match ups.

oh yeah , my bad ...

 

[helterskelter]

I think OP's original guess of about a 3-5% chance is probably about where it should be.
Goes without saying that if anyone is going to do it then Djokovic is most likely, still a seriously tough & impressive thing to do though...hence why it's only happened handful of times over past 45 years or in last 180+ Slams contested.

It's three times in the last 141 Slams. It actually happened four times in between 1973 and 1980, as Borg managed it on three separate occasions (and Nastase once). So, it's seven times in the 172 Slams since the start of 1973. In the last 180 Slams (1971-2015), it's happened eight times.

 

[123456789]

Djokovic will lose three in his first match. Chung with the major upset 6-1 6-0 6-3

 

[Nathaniel_Near]

Djokovic will lose three in his first match. Chung with the major upset 6-1 6-0 6-3

Absolutely. It's bound to happen. Djokovic doesn't realise that Chung is as fast as Chang and will be bamboozled. Meanwhile, Nadal will win the tournament without dropping a set.