Year-end Ratings WILL BE HIGHER

Discussion in 'Adult League & Tournament Talk' started by 10sguy, Nov 11, 2009.

  1. 10sguy

    10sguy Rookie

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    A word to the wise; be very flexible in your team planning for 2010 because there is an expectation of an overall "bump up" of most player's NRTP's in an attempt to more closely match player ratings to NTRP descriptions. There, IMO, is a VERY POSITIVE EFFECT from this, that being we'll likely see many new faces enjoying the experience of postseason play (rather than so many of the same old faces). But this doesn't necessarily mean if you're a low to average 3.5, for example), you can expect to be a Y/E 4.0 - but you can almost be assured that players who are accustomed to appealing down most years and being relatively successful year in and year out will very likely find themselves at a new higher level (and ineligible to appeal). I, for one, think this is great!
     
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  2. amarone

    amarone Semi-Pro

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    Also, note that appeals will fail if a player played at least a certain number of matches. It has been reported as 5 on these boards, but I have heard that it is 6.
     
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  3. amarone

    amarone Semi-Pro

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    A further thought - if there is a bump up it gives an advantage to those areas that have already started their 2010 season with a roster governed by early start ratings. Atlanta is starting its second 2010 season right now.
     
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  4. herrburgess

    herrburgess Rookie

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    Are they revamping the NTRP computer system in a way that will result in higher ratings. Will match results now be weighted differently somehow? I assume that this is the announcement that our league is planning to make at our local captains' meeting this Sunday. Did you already receive the news at your local captains' meeting? Would like to know if this is truly official.
     
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  5. raiden031

    raiden031 Legend

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    Did USTA publish this information or is it just a rumor?
     
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  6. Cindysphinx

    Cindysphinx G.O.A.T.

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    Boy, I hope the rumor is true. This bunching of female players at 3.0 and 3.5 has got to stop.
     
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  7. sphinx780

    sphinx780 Professional

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    It be interesting to see if there is truth to this and how it will play out.
     
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  8. kylebarendrick

    kylebarendrick Professional

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    I have good reason to believe that the OP knows what he is talking about.
     
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  9. vizsla

    vizsla Rookie

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    The OP? who is that
     
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  10. raiden031

    raiden031 Legend

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    And why should the rest of us also have good reason to believe that?
     
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  11. Douggo

    Douggo Semi-Pro

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    I have good reason to believe kylebarendrick is a maniac, and not to be trusted.





    No, not really.
     
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  12. vizsla

    vizsla Rookie

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    Who is OP?????
     
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  13. vizsla

    vizsla Rookie

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    Original poster?
     
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  14. 10sguy

    10sguy Rookie

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    Hmmm, original (im)poster? (just kidding)

    Seriously, what I posted is the general gist and effect of what is coming with this year's year-end ratings. Far be it for me to try to guess at how National will present this; I just put it out as a "heads up." And, no, it's not a rumor.
     
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  15. Wakenslam

    Wakenslam Rookie

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    Yes, OP=Original Poster.

    I wholeheartedly agree about bumping people up and not letting them appeal back down. Its gets really old. Around here, if you get bumped to 4.5 you have to start driving a long way to your matches. God forbid you make 5.0. I think there's like 2 teams in the whole city.
     
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  16. kylebarendrick

    kylebarendrick Professional

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    You don't - I may just be a maniac. I trust 10sguy though.
     
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  17. catfish

    catfish Semi-Pro

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    I hope this is true. The levels get stagnant and it does get old when people get bumped up and appeal back down over and over again.
     
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  18. goober

    goober Legend

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    I guess it depends on the area. Around here all the females are bunched at 3.5 and 4.0 with a fair amount at 4.5.

    3.0 however is dead with only a small number of teams.
     
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  19. kennydoe

    kennydoe New User

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    I can shed a little light on this and it's based on a lot of heresay, so I can't vounch for its validity...but it does make sense.

    Here on Long Island (maybe elsewhere as well), a bunch of 5.0 teams took on Division-I college players who self-rated at 5.0

    For those unfamiliar, Division-I college players will outplay a "normal" 5.0 player pretty easily. The "normal" 5.0 players get destroyed by these college players and subsequently got bumped down to 4.5, so now there are 5.0 players playing at 4.5 and blowing out the 'normal' 4.5 players....etc etc etc, and on down the line.

    They apparently need to s-t-r-e-t-c-h out the rating system now because of this.

    We've seen it happen here - and there is now a major discrepancy at the 4.5 level between the top and bottom players in the level.

    Maybe somebody here can confirm or deny this....
    ~Kenny (who only wishes he were that good!)
     
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  20. Islandtennis

    Islandtennis Rookie

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    The percentage of 3.5's is quite a bit higher than it has been in the past.
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2009
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  21. damazing

    damazing Rookie

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    Would this mean that people may get bumped more than a level? i.e. 3.0 bumped to 4.0 or 3.5 bumped to 4.5
     
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  22. 10sguy

    10sguy Rookie

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    No, not unless an exceptional player - let's take a 3.0, for example - who would, under normal circumstances, be going to advance to a fairly high 3.5 level. This COULD result in just a few such players jumping a whole 1.0 level. I would expect this to be very rare though.
     
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  23. OrangePower

    OrangePower Hall of Fame

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    I do think there is going to be a significant 'shifting' of players next season from each level to the next higher level. However, I think most of this effect is going to come because of the new appeal rules that will limit appeals.

    In my area, probably 15%-20% of all the 4.0s last season were actually 4.0A (appealed down from 4.5). And probably were an even higher percentage in terms of matches actually played, since these are the better players and tend to be put into more matches than the weaker 4.0s. So having these players now be 4.5s is going to change the landscape significantly.

    If in addition the USTA is readjusting the rating algorithms so that even more get bumped, then it will be total mayhem. Better that they make one change at a time (i.e. just enact the appeal rule change for now, and see where it leaves things).
     
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  24. 10sguy

    10sguy Rookie

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    Only those with access 'inside the numbers' will know what will cause how much of the effect . . . but my guess is the "bump up" of players who would otherwise be at the top of their NTRP level will (along with "ineligible for appeals due to playing five or more matches in the rating year" and benchmarks) will significantly change the landscape - FOR THE BETTER!
    Heck, maybe even chronic complainer "Joey-what's-his-name" will get his long sought after 5.0 (but we'll all know it's "tainted," right?). All of you who have him blocked will LOVE that!

    I say, "Bring on the mayhem (your words)." It'll be great for many players who have never been to Nationals, Sectionals and have maybe just tasted Districts once or twice.
     
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  25. raiden031

    raiden031 Legend

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    I read the new USTA regulations and dont recall reading about any 5 match appeal rule. Did I miss this, or is it not documented? If so then I doubt it will be happening, otherwise why wouldn't it be in the regulations?

    I think the 'appeal problem' is grossly exaggerated. I've only known a few appeal players, but its changed alot already after the new non-appeal for benchmark players went into effect last year. What I find helpful would be if they indeed update the algorithm to stretch the ratings more.
     
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  26. 10sguy

    10sguy Rookie

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    Don't know if it's "documented" but yet . . . BELIEVE IT!
     
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  27. raiden031

    raiden031 Legend

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    Maybe in 2011. I just think its odd that when they changed the rules last year, it was documented well in advance. They've already documented a bunch of changes for 2010. Since you don't know, I either need to re-read it, or a betcha it ain't happenin this year.
     
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  28. fe6250

    fe6250 Semi-Pro

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    Since you seem to be "in the know"

    Any ideas on when year-end ratings are supposed to be published? Typically they seem to happen in late November. Just wondered if there was a 'target' date yet.

    On the topic - it is hard for anyone to know for sure what the effect will be, but in general it seems like a good move as it appears we need to spread things out a bit as so many are bunching up in the 3.5 / 4.0 levels. I know many of us find ourselves sort of between levels, but won't this just move the 'between' area somewhere else?
     
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  29. OrangePower

    OrangePower Hall of Fame

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    Believe it. It's documented, at least in Norcal. I posted about this back in July:

    http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=277370

    Edit: Looks like the link I posted in my original thread is dead. But take a look here:

    http://www.norcal.usta.com/sitecore...545_Rating_Information_Automatic_appeals.aspx

    Looks like they have made the language a little more vague: "Effective 2010, appeals will be granted only for players whose rating falls within the allowed margin AND who have limited match playing history".

    Previously they had defined limited match playing history as 5 or 6 rated matches. Now they are leaving it more open - maybe trying to give themselves some wiggle room?

    But at any rate, there is definitely going to be a further restriction on automatic appeals for 2010, at least in Norcal. And I think that's a good thing - even though I will probably be one of the casualties of this rule :)
     
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  30. OrangePower

    OrangePower Hall of Fame

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    Don't get me wrong, I think this would be a great change in the long run.

    I would just spread the changes out over 2 seasons (1 season for the "no automatic appeal" change, next season for the "adjust rating algorithm to bump more players up" change.

    Ratings come out end Nov / early Dec, and people are already signing teams up in Jan (at least that's the calendar here in Norcal). So if too many people are impacted in one go, there's not much time for prospective captains to determine if they are going to be able to put a team together.

    One team I played on last season would be a good example: We had 13 regulars on the roster. Of those, the captain figures on losing 4 or 5 due to bump ups with no appeals. If that's the extent of it, he can recruit enough new players to still field a team. But let's say that because of changes to the rating algorithm, he ends up losing 7-8 players. If that's the case he would probably not be able to put a team together in time.
     
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  31. Topaz

    Topaz Legend

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    Hmmm, will be interesting to see how this plays out.

    I like the further restrictions on appeals. Personally I don't see it abused too much in this area, but I know it happens. Does this also apply to medical appeals, though?

    We don't have ES ratings in my section, and I have to admit to being confused by them...so, if you get an ES rating, must you play at the rating or can you continue at your old rating (assuming a change in the ES) until the 'real' ratings come out? What is the purpose really? And how can some areas be in their second 2010 season? Lol, when does it end? Shall we just get a jump on 2011 while we're at it? ;)
     
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  32. herrburgess

    herrburgess Rookie

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    This may explain, however, the urgent tone of my local coordinator's recent e-mail regarding MAJOR CHANGES (that I posted about in another thread). My suspicion is that they have truly made significant changes, perhaps even in the NTRP logarithm. They even have an NTRP "expert" on hand for the meeting. We'll see (meeting's at 2:30 tomorrow)...
     
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  33. Topaz

    Topaz Legend

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    Wow, you guys have meetings? Please report back, I'm all curious now (though I don't think I'm moving this year at all). I'm on the 'captain's email list' for our area, and I haven't heard a peep from our local coordinator!
     
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  34. herrburgess

    herrburgess Rookie

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    Yea, this is the first meeting I've been to locally (been to them at States, etc.). Must be important. And now I'm thinking I might get the "double bump," as I went 6-0 in the Spring playing up at the next level. I'll report back tomorrow.
     
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  35. Topaz

    Topaz Legend

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    ^^^Thanks! I appreciate it!

    We usually have one meeting in mid-Feb to prepare for our regular USTA season, but since ratings come out soon and it sounds like some might get a shocking surprise, it would be good to know beforehand.
     
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  36. JavierLW

    JavierLW Hall of Fame

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    The fact that it's not on www.usta.com as a new rule means it's not a new rule, that's a FACT.

    I believe it may of been on there, but maybe it was taken away.

    It's likely Norcal just likes the idea so they are keeping it in since ultimately the section gets to decide whether to accept an appeal or not, and I believe they are not using tennislink directly so perhaps they can better accommodate something like that. (I heard once that they charge you money if you appeal your rating as well, where other sections practically hold your hand to get everyone to auto-appeal)

    Im not sure where 10sguy comes up with this stuff. It's true, they tweak the formulas sometimes to create certain affects, but you hear all sorts of storys from within the sections themselves that dont pan out.
     
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  37. Cruzer

    Cruzer Professional

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    Based on the ESR's in Norcal it seems a certainty that the final year end ratings will generally be higher than at the beginning of the year. Obviously the USTA is redefining what the playing abilities are for each level. The vast majority of the Norcal ESR's had players' ratings going up. The reality is 99% of the players with higher ESR's are not playing any better than they were a year ago although some believe that since their USTA rating went up they must be better players.
     
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  38. Islandtennis

    Islandtennis Rookie

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    Herr,

    My suspicion is that your report will be anticlimatic, but it is good to go to your local meetings.
     
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  39. J011yroger

    J011yroger G.O.A.T.

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    Kenny, E-mail me if you ever want to get together for a hit. I live about 15 mins away from you. Have met up and hit with about 40 board members, who can vouch that I am not an axe murderer or otherwise wierdo.

    J
     
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  40. amarone

    amarone Semi-Pro

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    You must play at your ES rating - that is what they are for. National ratings do not come out until end of November/start of December, so any area that starts its next championship season before then must produce ES ratings to govern roster eligibility.

    You mention 2011. Georgia will produce its first ES ratings for 2011 in March of 2010, so not long to wait.
     
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  41. amarone

    amarone Semi-Pro

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    A change in how NTRP is managed is not a rule change and hence will not be documented as such. Trust me, the appeals process has changed such that appeals fail if the player has played a certain number of matches. As already mentioned, I was told that 6 matches was the limit, but 5 has also been mentioned in this thread.

    TennisLink was giving a message to players as to why their appeal had failed and was stating the fact that they had played x matches. That message was removed, but the algorithm did not change.

    I assume that it is part of the USTA's policy of not giving out too much information about how NTRP works so as to minimize the possibility of players taking unfair advantage.
     
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  42. JavierLW

    JavierLW Hall of Fame

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    Was this when the ESR's were appealed? (since obviously year end ratings are not out yet)

    I did notice that the website used to talk about how the auto-appeal would work if you fell within .05 (or .10 for a senior), but now it seems to not say anything about that. So maybe they are totally trying to hide how appeals are granted.
     
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  43. Topaz

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    Hmm, ok, thanks for clearing that up. Yeah, our first 'official' season starts in January, so we wouldn't have a need for ESR.

    Has it ever happened that someone gets bumped up in the ESR, starts playing on a team at that new rating, and then gets bumped back down with the 'real' ratings in NOV/DEC? I would imagine that would really screw a player (and their team) over, but maybe it really doesn't happen much?

    But why in the world would a 2011 season start in March of 2010?!? Must be a loooong season!
     
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  44. amarone

    amarone Semi-Pro

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    Yes - Georgia ESRs were published in August.
     
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  45. amarone

    amarone Semi-Pro

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    I would expect so, but I don't see how that would screw anyone over. It is still the same player, so the team has got what they expect.

    Note that Atlanta has just started a season (yesterday, in fact). A player who gets bumped down in the National Ratings will be allow to join a team at his new lower level after the National Rating comes out. A player who is bumped up in the National Ratings will be allowed to stay on his current team.

    It doesn't start in March. The ES ratings are published in March. The season starts in late May and finishes in late August. That is too late to be completed in time for District championships for that year. The second season starts in November (ESRs published in August), and completes in February.
     
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  46. Islandtennis

    Islandtennis Rookie

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    Amarone, you have a better handle on what is happening than does 10sguy
     
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  47. Topaz

    Topaz Legend

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    I was thinking that players/captains would get screwed if the people were not allowed to stay and play out the season, but since they do, well then, that makes more sense.

    Thanks for the explanations. Since our leagues don't 'cross' the district year, I'm just unfamiliar with how ESR work.
     
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  48. kennydoe

    kennydoe New User

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    I've seen your videos - i think i'd rather play with an axe murderer if you know any :twisted: - it would probably be more fun for both of us.

    Seriously though - I'm nowhere near your level, and while I always love to 'play up', I'm not sure it would be much fun for you.

    If you want to hit with a 3.5, I certainly won't deny you the privlege - let me know.
    ~Kenny
     
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  49. herrburgess

    herrburgess Rookie

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    Just returned from the IMPORTANT meeting and got to talk to the Director of NTRP, Self-Rate Appeals, and NTRP Grievances for the Southern Section. Without being too specific, he said that they are constantly tweaking how NTRP is managed (but not that ratings will definitely be higher), and also said that people who play 6 matches that are recognized by the computer as affecting dynamic ratings will not be eligible for appeal.
     
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  50. raiden031

    raiden031 Legend

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    Looks like you're probably right. I can no longer find any documentation whatsoever that talks about appeal criteria such as automatic appeals being granted for .05/.10. Now it just says what rating categories are allowed to appeal, but not when they will be granted or denied.
     
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