New Rankings out
#1's are unchanged.
Anone would care to explain (if it hasn't been done already) how these rankings come about? Do they calculate points from each team's performance during the season?
Also, how about singles rankings.... I'm surprised Alex Clayton's ranking has dropped since Jan. 4th... I don't remember him losing a dual match this season... Thacher also dropped by 11 places! He lost only one dual at #2 for Stanford....
Also, how come Williams, Domijan etc... have less points today, than they had on Jan. 4, whereas other players have more points than in the previous ranking??? I'm not sure how they make these rankings so there may be an easy explanation, but I don't know it.
The team rankings are a human poll. they don't go to computer polls until after the NTI.
The singles and doubles rankings are based on the players' best # of wins. The # they count increases during the season. So, in the first poll they might take into account a player's best 5 wins, but several months later they're being ranked on their best 10 wins.
So, your ranking isn't just based on whether or not you're winning, it's based more on who you beat. So, Clayton and Thacher have dropped because they didn't beat enough people with a decent ranking. Virginia's #6 player, Justin Shane, has not lost since the January 4th rankings, but he is unranked this go around because his list of victories isn't good enough to get him in, especially with all the #1 and #2 spot players that did poorly in the fall starting to get some dual match victories over higher ranked players.
Early on, one or two big wins can get you into the Top 25, but to sustain that ranking, you have to keep racking up victories over top talent. It's pretty hard for talented players at the #3 spot or lower to maintain their fall rankings. Even if you're on a top team that plays a difficult schedule, you just aren't going to get the matches against top talent that players in the #1 and #2 spots get.
OK, thanks for the explanation but there is still something funny about these rankings. What do the points mean and how do they give them if it's just a human based ranking. I pointed earlier to some discrepancies in the numbers between Jan. 2011 and the new ranking from yesterday. How come some players have more points and some lost points...?
The team rankings are human based. Singles and doubles are done by computer.
The point value each player has is some measure of how those "Best #" wins average out. So players that have seen their point value fall have had more wins averaged into their ranking, but those wins were not against the same quality of opponents that generated the January 4th rankings.
Let's look at Domijan.
For the January 4th rankings, his wins looked like this:
1. Quigley (#2)
2. Lacroix (#4)
3. Cunha (#9)
4. Garrapiz (#13)
5. Klahn (#15)
6. Nguyen (#18 )
7. Hume (#62)
8. Tripper Carleton (#87)
Now, look at his current set of wins
1. Quigley (#3)
2. Klahn (#7)
3. Lacroix (#9)
4. Cunha (#10)
5. Nguyen (#16)
6. Garrapiz (#24)
7. Hamui (#33)
8. Musialek (#70)
9. Watt (#77)
10. Hume (#109)
11. Bandres (#112)
12. Tripper Carleton (#123)
Now, let's say that his ranking in January was based on his best 6 wins. Pretty good batch of results there for a high point value. Now let's say that the latest rankings are based on his best 10 results now. The best win he's added since January is the win over Hamui, which lowered his average from January nonetheless. You see how even though Alex has not lost a match this year, his point value has declined because he's played lower ranked opponents?
Now, Domijan will have a good chance this weekend to add some big wins to his record, so there's not much of a danger of him falling far if he keeps winning. But if you look at Virginia's other Top 25 players like Jenkins and Courtney (who play #4 and #5, respectively) they will not get matches against the top players. For someone in their position, the fall tournaments are very important in terms of getting enough quality wins to get them a spot in the NCAA singles tournament.
Other than trash talking, the rankings' only real value is determining the field for the NCAAs, as well as the All-American and Indoors Championships. Just because Williams is ranked #1 does not mean he's the best player in college, but rather that he has the best set of wins so far this season.
how often, if ever, will a player playing low in a line up qualify for the singles draw in the ncaa? UVA has so many talented players, seems as though 4, 5 & 6 don't have much of a chance, even though they may indeed be better than many others playing higher or on weaker teams? perhaps they could/should split/share time with teammates to gain bigger win oppetunities....does that happen much?
Last year the cut line was at 60. The NCAA gives any conference with a player ranked in the Top 125 one automatic qualifier to the field, so a few of the low end conferences will get a player outside the Top 60 in, which is why they don't take the Top 64.
There are several keys to making the NCAA field if you're a player in the 4-6 range.
1) Whip some serious tale in the fall. The fall tournaments are the best shot to rack up some wins against guys that will play at 1 and 2 during the spring. A decent fall season can carry you into the singles tournament.
2) If you cross paths with a ranked player in a dual match, WIN. If a player is playing 4-6, they will rarely get a chance to put a good win on the board in a dual match. When the odd chance comes along, you have to make the most of it. This weekend is a good example, although you've got to avoid the dreaded DNF.
3) Root hard for any player you've beaten. You need the players you've beaten to win throughout the year and stay highly ranked to give you a boost. If one of the players you beat in the fall when he was ranked say, #10 suddenly goes plummeting down the rankings thanks to a string of losses, he's taking you with him.
Last year, Virginia put four players in the NCAA field, but Jenkins and Courtney barely made it. They were playing at 3 and 4 last year, but they are at 4 and 5 right now, so it'll be even harder to stay in the Top 60 this year, but I think it is possible. Oddly, I think Courtney has the better shot, because he has wins over Blaz Rola and Guillermo Gomez. Jenkins' best win is over Gonzalo Escobar. I think Virginia is a lock for three participants, a good shot at 4, and 5 is not completely out of the question. This weekend will sort out of a lot things.
thanks, good insight
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