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-   -   Rafa's W/L record - can he sustain it? (http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=421807)

kragster 04-25-2012 02:09 PM

Rafa's W/L record - can he sustain it?
 
Along with ranking, weeks at no 1, slam count etc I think of W-L record as a very good indicator of greatness, given a large enough sample size. Rafa has a long way to go on the first few criteria but one place where he has his best stats is his W/L percentage which at the moment is 2nd only to Borg (0.826 vs 0.827). The other top guys are also very close behind - Connors/Mcenroe/Fed/Lendl. As a surface breakdown, Rafa is 1st on clay, 7th on grass and 13th on hard courts (not bad for someone considered a dirtballer).

It must be noted that as you get older and move out of your prime, your W/L record will naturally come down. That being said, even in one of Rafa's worst years (2009), his W-L was a healthy 82.5%. If Rafa has a Federesque career, where he can remain top 5 for the next 3 years, he could still end up with a >82% W-L record. On the other hand, with such a physical game, Rafa's fall from grace could also be a lot steeper than a touch player like Fed. Early bloomers like Rafa are likely to have better pre-primes and worse post-primes compared to late bloomers like Fed.

Thoughts?

Interesting side notes:

1) Murray is really high up there in W-L record, highlighting why he is considered such an underachiever - no other non-slam winner comes close to having a similar W-L record.

2) Lendl has the most balanced W-L record across surfaces with around 82% on all 3 surfaces(clay/hard/grass). Connors is the 2nd most balanced.

3) Fed is no 1 on both hard and grass but his clay-court W-L by his own lofty standards is a little low (76.2% - rank 14). 2008 was Fed's worst year (after becoming a top player) in W-L record and post 2008, Fed's W-L record has remained pretty flat around the 83% mark. Fed's pre-prime years are the reason why his W-L record is not somewhere in the 85% range.

tennis_pro 04-25-2012 02:17 PM

I think the best answer is that we'll have to wait and see.

MG1 04-25-2012 03:04 PM

From 2014 onwards tough time will start...tough losses will come with increasing age and more tournament on h/cs means more chances of early exit from tournaments.

tennis_pro 04-25-2012 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MG1 (Post 6488232)
From 2014 onwards tough time will start...tough losses will come with increasing age and more tournament on h/cs means more chances of early exit from tournaments.

The funny thing is that reaching 2 finals in a particular tournament gives u a lower win % than winning a title and losing in the first round in the same event. I think as long as Nadal is winning some titles (doesn't have to be 10, 2-3 a year is enough), he's going to maintain that 82% winning ratio.

nadal_slam_king 04-25-2012 03:36 PM

Over the next 5 years I think Nadal will focus on clay all-year round (the South American clay events). There is no logic behind submitting to the most injury-inflicting surface that is hardcourt when you are getting toward age 30. And every player stops caring about their ranking at some point. That is when Nadal will not care about the hardcourt masters events. Mandatory, but still able to be skipped. Definitely I see him skipping the indoor season, and skip Indian Wells/Miami. Still play Canada/Cincy/US Open/AO but no other hardcourt events. More clay events, South American season. Overall W/L record will therefore stay the same or slightly improve.

MG1 04-25-2012 03:57 PM

heavy financial loss for nadal then and do you know the penalties for skipping mandatory masters??

nadal_slam_king 04-25-2012 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MG1 (Post 6488306)
heavy financial loss for nadal then and do you know the penalties for skipping mandatory masters??

Are you kidding me? I've seen players skip Masters Events with "exhaustion". That is a legit medical reason. If Nadal plays a few South American clay events, he can claim exhaustion. And how about when Nadal skipped Paris Indoors with "elbow tendinitis" from serving too hard in practice? That actually happened! And of course knee tendinitis. It's EASY to skip a Masters Event. Easy, without being fined. And regarding ranking points, obviously as players get older they focus primarily on the slams, as Sampras did, and later Agassi (though Agassi cared a lot about the rankings for most of his 30s).

MG1 04-25-2012 04:12 PM

still you lost bonus at the end of the yeat considering he ends in top 10 after your advice.

and you can skip 1-2 master in year claiming injury after that it will be suspicious if you keep playing smaller tourneys but skip big ones.

nadal_slam_king 04-25-2012 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MG1 (Post 6488323)
still you lost bonus at the end of the yeat considering he ends in top 10 after your advice.

and you can skip 1-2 master in year claiming injury after that it will be suspicious if you keep playing smaller tourneys but skip big ones.

The thing is, the tour can't fine you based on 'suspicion', because you have a medical certificate. Medical certificate holds a lot more weight than 'suspicion'. The player would sue the tour if they fined him in that instance. Plus Nadal could play Clay events in the weeks preceding the hardcourt masters events. The tour can't tell Nadal not to focus on clay events. Then after the clay events he will be 'exhausted' or have some other physical issues. And Nadal has the right to do this, because the tour SHOULDN'T have the right to force 28-30 year-olds into hardcourt-induced injury. I am 100% sure Nadal will play less hardcourt events in future.

elpolaco84 04-25-2012 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nadal_slam_king (Post 6488277)
Over the next 5 years I think Nadal will focus on clay all-year round (the South American clay events). There is no logic behind submitting to the most injury-inflicting surface that is hardcourt when you are getting toward age 30. And every player stops caring about their ranking at some point. That is when Nadal will not care about the hardcourt masters events. Mandatory, but still able to be skipped. Definitely I see him skipping the indoor season, and skip Indian Wells/Miami. Still play Canada/Cincy/US Open/AO but no other hardcourt events. More clay events, South American season. Overall W/L record will therefore stay the same or slightly improve.

First: :lol:
Not playing shanghai, paris ok but, seriously, do you really think he'll skip IW/Miami??? and for some clay 250's or 500s?:roll:

sureshs 04-25-2012 04:37 PM

Rafa gonna win all the remaining Slams this year

beast of mallorca 04-25-2012 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sureshs (Post 6488374)
Rafa gonna win all the remaining Slams this year

Quoted for truth !

nadal_slam_king 04-25-2012 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by elpolaco84 (Post 6488369)
First: :lol:
Not playing shanghai, paris ok but, seriously, do you really think he'll skip IW/Miami??? and for some clay 250's or 500s?:roll:

When he's 30, of course he will skip them. Nadal knows what causes most of his problems. Nadal knows his future will have to be on clay.

DjokovicForTheWin 04-25-2012 05:02 PM

Unfortunately, Nadal can never be GOAT.

nadal_slam_king 04-25-2012 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DjokovicForTheWin (Post 6488413)
Unfortunately, Nadal can never be GOAT.

Well, no 25-26 year old in history has every qualified to be GOAT (not that there has every been an award called GOAT lol). Obviously.

DjokovicForTheWin 04-25-2012 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nadal_slam_king (Post 6488417)
Well, no 25-26 year old in history has every qualified to be GOAT (not that there has every been an award called GOAT lol). Obviously.

Borg qualified for consideration when he was 25. But now the bar has been raised by Federer. Yes it's obvious there is no award for GOAT, did I say there was? If it was so obvious why did you have to point it out?

Apun94 04-25-2012 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nadal_slam_king (Post 6488277)
Over the next 5 years I think Nadal will focus on clay all-year round (the South American clay events). There is no logic behind submitting to the most injury-inflicting surface that is hardcourt when you are getting toward age 30. And every player stops caring about their ranking at some point. That is when Nadal will not care about the hardcourt masters events. Mandatory, but still able to be skipped. Definitely I see him skipping the indoor season, and skip Indian Wells/Miami. Still play Canada/Cincy/US Open/AO but no other hardcourt events. More clay events, South American season. Overall W/L record will therefore stay the same or slightly improve.

Are you kidding me?? Why would Nadal want to play more clay events. He doesnt need to achieve more on clay, he's already clay GOAT.
Since Nadal actually has a legit chance for coming in the GOAT debate, i really do think he would prefer playing more HC events. I really dont see him missing indoor HCs and IW/Miami tournys for the next 5 yrs (unless injury, of course) The more he plays these tournys the more he has chances of winning them. Nadal has already said that he wants to play more HC than clay

elpolaco84 04-25-2012 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nadal_slam_king (Post 6488387)
When he's 30, of course he will skip them. Nadal knows what causes most of his problems. Nadal knows his future will have to be on clay.

you can skip 1 year, you can skip 2 years(with medical excuses and so on), but you can't skip indefinitely such mandatory tournaments, if Nadal thinks like you (and he doesn't) he will enter the tournaments and lose in the early stages

But again

No.

TTMR 04-25-2012 05:27 PM

Anything that happens on clay aside from 2009 doesn't matter. Ergo, Nadal's win/loss record is unimpressive.

Sentinel 04-25-2012 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DjokovicForTheWin (Post 6488413)
Unfortunately, Nadal can never be GOAT.

Why is that unfortunate ?


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