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-   -   What are each teams chances of winning the national title? (http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=421929)

Dawgie Dawg 04-26-2012 01:41 PM

What are each teams chances of winning the national title?
 
UGA 80%
USC 10%
UCLA 5%
Ohio State 4%
Kentucky 1%


what do you think?

bluetrain4 04-26-2012 01:55 PM

How did everyone else become an also-ran? Just beause USC lost last week?

USC 40%
UVA 25%
UGA 20%
UCLA, OSU 7%
Kentucky 1%

Seriously, I have no idea. But, I stand firm in believing USC has a much better than 10% chance.

Clemson_tennis 04-26-2012 02:02 PM

I'm surprised that Dawgie Dawg dosen't have UGA at 100%

TopDawg 04-26-2012 02:29 PM

USC 40%
UGA 20%
Virginia 20%
UCLA 10%
Ohio State 10%

After we see the draws these %'s will probably look different.

floridatennisdude 04-26-2012 02:42 PM

I'll take a look at the draws Monday, but I would take USC vs the field. I'm not as confident as I was last year, but I'm pretty confident they'll do it yet again.

mikej 04-26-2012 04:33 PM

USC 58% - clear favorite in my book, as dubs and Johnson will give them a 2-0 lead in each match they play on the way to the title

UVA 16% - top 3 clicking now, but relatively weak dubs, questionable depth, and likely a tough draw shaping up...also I question Domi's toughness in the heat (and with rowdy crowds like he saw last year at Stanford) against some of the top #2s he will face...UVA might be wise to switch him and Frank for NCAAs

Ohio St 10% - if they play great dubs like they did in Indoors, they will be a tough out, but they will likely lose to a deep team like UGA or UCLA after losing a fickle dubs pt (or just lose straight up to the two better teams above) - @theotherkobe is the man, but he won't beat a guy like Frank again in NCAAs

UCLA 6% - the Meister-Thompson switch will hurt them, and I don't know if their depth can overcome that against the top teams - those guys will have to outdo themselves for UCLA to even make a final now

UGA 4% - yeah yeah home court advantage blah blah blah - this team has not looked like a superpower to me this season - they'll probably barely survive a team similar to UF like they did in the regular season then lose in the quarters - if their dubs was better I might buy into "the pit" carrying them to a title match a bit more

Duke 3% - 1) need another team to take out USC, which isn't likely to happen 2) need dubs pts, which they have a fighting chance of against most teams and 3) need Cunha to stop losing to guys like Jenkins and Hernandez and reclaim his inner barriCunha

Kentucky 3% - similar in a lot of ways to Duke - they'll need to get ahead of the game with dubs pts and get some good play out of the veteran Quigley

anyone else 0%

woodrow1029 04-26-2012 04:43 PM

Fedace. I mean Nostradamus says:

Standford: 100%
USC: 40%
Everyone else 24.743%

jaggy 04-26-2012 05:55 PM

Its the spoiled childrens to lose

TourTenor 04-26-2012 05:59 PM

Woodrow,
Yep, I am sure Feddie, errr Nostradamus, minored in statistics at Standford ... and, I am sure he has Standford at 110% with all other teams combined winning "when pigs fly."

The Wreck 04-26-2012 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikej (Post 6490468)
USC 58% - clear favorite in my book, as dubs and Johnson will give them a 2-0 lead in each match they play on the way to the title

UVA 16% - top 3 clicking now, but relatively weak dubs, questionable depth, and likely a tough draw shaping up...also I question Domi's toughness in the heat (and with rowdy crowds like he saw last year at Stanford) against some of the top #2s he will face...UVA might be wise to switch him and Frank for NCAAs

Ohio St 10% - if they play great dubs like they did in Indoors, they will be a tough out, but they will likely lose to a deep team like UGA or UCLA after losing a fickle dubs pt (or just lose straight up to the two better teams above) - @theotherkobe is the man, but he won't beat a guy like Frank again in NCAAs

UCLA 6% - the Meister-Thompson switch will hurt them, and I don't know if their depth can overcome that against the top teams - those guys will have to outdo themselves for UCLA to even make a final now

UGA 4% - yeah yeah home court advantage blah blah blah - this team has not looked like a superpower to me this season - they'll probably barely survive a team similar to UF like they did in the regular season then lose in the quarters - if their dubs was better I might buy into "the pit" carrying them to a title match a bit more

Duke 3% - 1) need another team to take out USC, which isn't likely to happen 2) need dubs pts, which they have a fighting chance of against most teams and 3) need Cunha to stop losing to guys like Jenkins and Hernandez and reclaim his inner barriCunha

Kentucky 3% - similar in a lot of ways to Duke - they'll need to get ahead of the game with dubs pts and get some good play out of the veteran Quigley

anyone else 0%


Look, I think USC is the clear favorite too, but I don't know why you don't want to buy into UGA. No, they haven't blown every opponent off the court, but that's because a lot of them are still really good. They beat OSU. They beat 3 top 15 teams in a weekend to win the SEC Championship. They've only lost to USC and Kentucky, and they avenged the latter when it mattered most. It's not always pretty or dominant. But a win's a win. Results speak for themselves.

I give UGA about a 25% chance, along with Virginia. USC at 40%, and Ohio State at 10%. Would be very, very surprised to see someone outside the top 4 win.

ClarkC 04-27-2012 06:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikej (Post 6490468)
UVA 16% - top 3 clicking now, but relatively weak dubs, questionable depth, and likely a tough draw shaping up...also I question Domi's toughness in the heat (and with rowdy crowds like he saw last year at Stanford) against some of the top #2s he will face...UVA might be wise to switch him and Frank for NCAAs

Sounds like some of this analysis is seriously out of date. Domijan was a nervous freshman in his first NCAA final 16 last year. That won't be a problem this year, and that is one reason the sophomore Domijan stays ahead of the freshman, Frank.

Drew Courtney flew to Alabama a little while ago to get custom shoe orthotics for his foot problem. He seems to be a new man. You might want to check his results from the ACC tournament at #1 doubles and #4 singles. "Top 4 clicking now" is even better than "top 3 clicking now." You also might want to check the results at #3 doubles.

Most of your assessment sounds spot on if only it had been written about a month ago.

10isplayer 04-27-2012 08:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ClarkC (Post 6491420)
Sounds like some of this analysis is seriously out of date. Domijan was a nervous freshman in his first NCAA final 16 last year. That won't be a problem this year, and that is one reason the sophomore Domijan stays ahead of the freshman, Frank.

Drew Courtney flew to Alabama a little while ago to get custom shoe orthotics for his foot problem. He seems to be a new man. You might want to check his results from the ACC tournament at #1 doubles and #4 singles. "Top 4 clicking now" is even better than "top 3 clicking now." You also might want to check the results at #3 doubles.

Most of your assessment sounds spot on if only it had been written about a month ago.

Do we have any evidence to point to the contrary with domijan? not saying that he won't handle it better. Also what do you think about UVa's doubles lineup? Hard to believe (especially with the scores from the ACC tournament) that frank and domijan will stay at 3 doubles. I thought they were better than rooda/shane all along. Do you think they should keep the rooda/shane pairing together?

ClarkC 04-27-2012 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10isplayer (Post 6491622)
Also what do you think about UVa's doubles lineup? Hard to believe (especially with the scores from the ACC tournament) that frank and domijan will stay at 3 doubles. I thought they were better than rooda/shane all along. Do you think they should keep the rooda/shane pairing together?

It might be Uriguen and Rooda if Uriguen gets totally healthy and match fit.

mikej 04-27-2012 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Wreck (Post 6490973)
It's not always pretty or dominant. But a win's a win. Results speak for themselves.

sort of

if you're struggling mightily with teams like UF sometimes, there's a good chance you may struggle from the rd of 16 onward in NCAAs

#1) one day, a guy like van overbeek may not hand you the choke of a lifetime and a win, and out you go early in the event

#2) you may be exhausted by the time you get to the semis, if you do

we'll see what happens, but i feel pretty comfortable lumping UGA in with UK and Duke in the very very low chance of winning category

if you're more impressed with your team than i am and don't like my opinion of them, that's fine, good luck!

mikej 04-27-2012 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ClarkC (Post 6491420)
Sounds like some of this analysis is seriously out of date.

i guess we'll see who's out of date / who's right / who's wrong / who's blinded by the love-fest with UVA's players on thesabre / etc in a few weeks :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by ClarkC (Post 6491420)
Domijan was a nervous freshman in his first NCAA final 16 last year. That won't be a problem this year, and that is one reason the sophomore Domijan stays ahead of the freshman, Frank.

if you say so...the rest of us without a crystal ball may not know until he sets foot in that big loud stadium on a hot day, with an opponent across from him that is making him play points longer than he wants, with an annoying fan yelling in his ear every time he gives in with a frustrated error


Quote:

Originally Posted by ClarkC (Post 6491420)
Drew Courtney flew to Alabama a little while ago to get custom shoe orthotics for his foot problem. He seems to be a new man. You might want to check his results from the ACC tournament at #1 doubles and #4 singles. "Top 4 clicking now" is even better than "top 3 clicking now."

did you have a straight face when you wrote that? i'm aware of his results from the ACC tournament - a very nice small sample where he got revenge on saba...and i also watched him play saba and lose a month ago on video feed...i couldn't tell if he had fancy orthotics in place so maybe he hadn't undergone his metamorphosis yet


Quote:

Originally Posted by ClarkC (Post 6491420)
You also might want to check the results at #3 doubles.

fact: UVA has lost more than its usual share of dubs pts this year
fact: UVA split two very close dubs pts with Duke during the past month (you think Duke is as good at dubs as OSU or USC? i don't)
opinion: there's a very good chance UVA will lose 2+ dubs pts if they survive long enough to play all 4 matches in NCAAs
opinion: they will not come back 2+ times against teams like UCLA, OSU, USC

Quote:

Originally Posted by ClarkC (Post 6491420)
Most of your assessment sounds spot on if only it had been written about a month ago.

again, we'll see :) going to predict a 7-0 win for UVA over USC again this year? that was pretty spot on last year

man, when you don't tell UGA and UVA fans that you think they are superpowers with tremendous chances of winning NCAAs, you really ruffle some feathers...sorry?

Dawgie Dawg 04-27-2012 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clemson_tennis (Post 6490190)
I'm surprised that Dawgie Dawg dosen't have UGA at 100%

I had to take into account unpredictable things like net courts and bad officiating.

Dawgie Dawg 04-27-2012 05:37 PM

Quote:

an, when you don't tell UGA and UVA fans that you think they are superpowers with tremendous chances of winning NCAAs, you really ruffle some feathers...sorry?
I don;t understand why a Duke fan has that much bravado.

mikej 04-27-2012 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawgie Dawg (Post 6492760)
I don;t understand why a Duke fan has that much bravado.

haha i'm not one of those duke bball fans who's surprised when duke doesn't win a title

won 100$ this year betting a friend they wouldn't get to rd of 16

when you recruit too many stiff white PFs like the plumlees and lose a guy like irving only to replace him with scrubs like quinn cook and thornton, early exits happen

but i still like our four banners - one of which i saw happen live :)

ClarkC 04-27-2012 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikej (Post 6492749)
man, when you don't tell UGA and UVA fans that you think they are superpowers with tremendous chances of winning NCAAs, you really ruffle some feathers...sorry?

No feathers ruffled here. I was just providing a counterpoint to what you said, because it honestly sounded like the same things that UVa fans were saying as we worried about our team a month ago. Drew Courtney was really struggling in every match a few weeks ago, even against competition that was not that great. His performance at the ACC tourney was three excellent doubles matches and three excellent singles matches, not just one win against Saba.

April 13: UVa only beats Florida State 4-3 in Charlottesville, with Andres Bucaro (#3, with one of FSU's best records) out of the lineup. Drew Courtney plays #5 (!) and loses to Jason Zafiros 7-6, 6-7, [10-3]. Justin Shane plays #4 and loses to Benjamin Lock in 3 sets. Lock has been looking like a rising star for Florida State for a while, working his way up from 6 to 4 as a freshman. Eight days later, at the ACC tournament, UVa beats Florida State 4-0 at a neutral site. Drew Courtney plays #4 and beats Benjamin Lock 6-2, 6-1. See any difference in performance there?

The week before the FSU/Miami weekend in C'ville, we took a road trip to Clemson and Georgia Tech, and Drew Courtney played #5. He beat Hunter Harrington of Clemson 5-7, 7-6, [10-8]. He played three better players than that in the ACCs and did not lose a set. So, we are not talking about one data point here, the Saba match.

Notice I did not contradict your claim that we are shaky at 5 and 6, because we have yet to prove otherwise against top level competition. Another wild card is that Domijan and Frank are looking great at #3 doubles, but will probably have to play #2 in the NCAAs as a result. At this point, we don't even know who that will leave at #3 doubles. However, when you consider that we were losing almost every doubles point against top 25 teams for a good stretch of the season, and now we have two doubles teams that are suddenly looking very good, then there is some reason for optimism. We have to continue to keep an eye on the bottom of the singles and doubles lineups in the NCAA regionals before we can decide exactly how optimistic we should be. If we cannot pick up wins at #3 doubles and #5-6 singles, then it is a tough task. But if Courtney still was struggling at #4, then it would have put us in the long shot category -- say, about 16% chance of winning it.

mikej 04-27-2012 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ClarkC (Post 6492797)
No feathers ruffled here. I was just providing a counterpoint to what you said, because it honestly sounded like the same things that UVa fans were saying as we worried about our team a month ago. Drew Courtney was really struggling in every match a few weeks ago, even against competition that was not that great. His performance at the ACC tourney was three excellent doubles matches and three excellent singles matches, not just one win against Saba.

(truncated)

Notice I did not contradict your claim that we are shaky at 5 and 6, because we have yet to prove otherwise against top level competition. Another wild card is that Domijan and Frank are looking great at #3 doubles, but will probably have to play #2 in the NCAAs as a result. At this point, we don't even know who that will leave at #3 doubles. However, when you consider that we were losing almost every doubles point against top 25 teams for a good stretch of the season, and now we have two doubles teams that are suddenly looking very good, then there is some reason for optimism. We have to continue to keep an eye on the bottom of the singles and doubles lineups in the NCAA regionals before we can decide exactly how optimistic we should be. If we cannot pick up wins at #3 doubles and #5-6 singles, then it is a tough task. But if Courtney still was struggling at #4, then it would have put us in the long shot category -- say, about 16% chance of winning it.

a solid enough response

i'll just say
#1) there's a big difference b/t middle-of-the-road ACC competition at 4 singles and UCLA / USC / OSU at those positions - same w/ 3 dubs...turning things around bigtime vs some ACC opponents doesn't tell me much of anything about how things will go at the next level of competition...so yes a step in the right direction but I'll stay skeptical
#2) even some of the positions where UVA has been great like #1 dubs will likely be underdogs vs the big guns - USC, OSU, and UCLA are fantastic at that spot - did you see UCLA treat Cal and Stanford's #1 dubs teams like they were a couple of 4.5 USTA teams in back to back matches? - so again I don't know if UVA can win more than 2/4 dubs pts even if they have gotten a bit better at the lower spots


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