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-   -   Inevitable "will I get bumped up" thread (http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=441211)

Maui19 09-26-2012 06:07 AM

Inevitable "will I get bumped up" thread
 
I am a 3.5C. I was surprised I didn't get bumped last year, as were most of the people I play with. I am assuming I am near the cutoff for 4.0.

This year, I played up at 4.0, where I was 2-3. I generally played the #3 court with the oldest/slowest guys on my team (because I can run a little). I know that at least two of my 12 opponents were 3.5s.

I also went 7-2 in Combo and Mixed, but I don't think those results count at all.

I was originally thinking that because I played up I am almost certain to get bumped. But looking back at the small number of matches and the weakness of my opponents, I am wondering if that is such a sure thing after all.

Opinons?

NTRPolice 09-26-2012 06:14 AM

Now, im not 100% sure about this, but if its anything similar to the "three strikes" of Dynamic DQ then im going to say that you'll need 3 wins at a higher level to move up.

I'm not sure how you "earn points" by playing up as a "C" rate. I played up this year as a 3.0 "C" and have more than 3 wins against some pretty strong opponents so im expecting a bump so I can finally get out of 3.0.

I would assume that "points earned" towards NTRP have some sort of multiplier or something when you play up as a "C" rated player. If you're playing up at a "S" rated player and you get "three strikes" you're DQ'ed.

I dont think its unreasonable to assume that "playing up" gives you "strikes", just that if you're a "C" player you're safe from Dynamic DQ and will just be moved up.

Too back the lynch mob scared away the "USTA" person in the other thread. Maybe he/she could have answered.


FWIW: I'm excited to play 8.0. 7.0 is still fun for me even though im almost undefeated over 10+ matches, but 6.0 is just getting a bit... stale. I cant wait for the challenge of 8.0 and I cant wait to see how I do.

I only have 2 losses at 7.0, one was in a playoff. Even though I have a great record, it's certainly "not easy" for me to win there.

spot 09-26-2012 06:52 AM

Quote:

Now, im not 100% sure about this, but if its anything similar to the "three strikes" of Dynamic DQ then im going to say that you'll need 3 wins at a higher level to move up.
I know for a fact that you don't need to play at least 3 matches to get bumped. When I first started playing tennis I self rated at 3.5. I joined a group of guys who had both a 3.5 team and a 4.0 team. They needed guys to fill slots at 4.0 so I had no problem jumping in. Won my first match straight sets playing with another 3.5 player. Lost the second match in a third set tiebreak against two benchmark 4.0's. Those were the only 2 matches I played since I joined late in the season. I got bumped up to 4.0 when the new ratings came up. I actually never got to play a single match at 3.5 though I'd think I was close enough that I could have appealed down.

To the OP- I'd think think there is a very good chance you get bumped but not a sure thing. You are definitely in the area where it depends on your opponents ratings.

anubis 09-26-2012 07:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maui19 (Post 6919877)
This year, I played up at 4.0, where I was 2-3. I generally played the #3 court with the oldest/slowest guys on my team (because I can run a little). I know that at least two of my 12 opponents were 3.5s.

As far as I know, the "number" doesn't matter. Whether it's #1 singles or #3 doubles, you don't get more points for playing #1 and less for #3.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maui19 (Post 6919877)
I also went 7-2 in Combo and Mixed, but I don't think those results count at all.

Correct, combo doesn't count. I don't think mixed counts either, but someone else will have to verify that

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maui19 (Post 6919877)
I was originally thinking that because I played up I am almost certain to get bumped. But looking back at the small number of matches and the weakness of my opponents, I am wondering if that is such a sure thing after all.

My understanding of the rating system is that there's "expected outcomes" that are predicted against match ups. If you're a 3.5 playing up in a 4.0 league, then you're expected to lose quite a few matches. And, the matches that you do win, you're expected to win by a very competitive margin. AND, I think its counted against you if you go the extreme end and bagel and/or breadstick a 4.0, since that was not expected at all, it throws off the computer.

Someone else may need to verify, but I think that you'll have a bigger chance of moving up by playing your own level and dominating, as opposed to playing up and doing "just OK".

emilyhex 09-26-2012 07:32 AM

Maybe if you could post the scores of your matches and the NTRPs of your opponents, we could take a better guess. Also, if possible, rate your perceived strength of your opponent's NTRP, like weak 4.0, moderate 4.0, strong 4.0. I'll assume you are a strong 3.5. Don't include combo/mixed.

OrangePower 09-26-2012 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maui19 (Post 6919877)
I am a 3.5C. I was surprised I didn't get bumped last year, as were most of the people I play with. I am assuming I am near the cutoff for 4.0.

This year, I played up at 4.0, where I was 2-3. I generally played the #3 court with the oldest/slowest guys on my team (because I can run a little). I know that at least two of my 12 opponents were 3.5s.

I also went 7-2 in Combo and Mixed, but I don't think those results count at all.

I was originally thinking that because I played up I am almost certain to get bumped. But looking back at the small number of matches and the weakness of my opponents, I am wondering if that is such a sure thing after all.

Opinons?

Combo and Mixed don't count. So it depends completely on your Adult results.

Court number does not matter. It depends completely on the dynamic rating of the players involved in each match, and the score of the match. Your 2-3 record is not definitive, but assuming your opponents were mostly mid-level 4.0s, it would indicate competitiveness at that level. And so assuming you were at the upper end of the 3.5 range to begin with, most likely your rating will have increased sufficiently as to push you into the 4.0 range.

By the way how did you end up facing 12 opponents in only 5 matches? They ganging up on you? :-)


Quote:

Originally Posted by NTRPolice (Post 6919894)
Now, im not 100% sure about this, but if its anything similar to the "three strikes" of Dynamic DQ then im going to say that you'll need 3 wins at a higher level to move up.

I'm not sure how you "earn points" by playing up as a "C" rate. I played up this year as a 3.0 "C" and have more than 3 wins against some pretty strong opponents so im expecting a bump so I can finally get out of 3.0.

I would assume that "points earned" towards NTRP have some sort of multiplier or something when you play up as a "C" rated player. If you're playing up at a "S" rated player and you get "three strikes" you're DQ'ed.

I dont think its unreasonable to assume that "playing up" gives you "strikes", just that if you're a "C" player you're safe from Dynamic DQ and will just be moved up.

This is all so completely wrong. There are several good threads in this forum that have good information on how DNTRP works. Please do yourself a favor and go read some of them before disseminating misinformation.

OrangePower 09-26-2012 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anubis (Post 6919964)
My understanding of the rating system is that there's "expected outcomes" that are predicted against match ups. If you're a 3.5 playing up in a 4.0 league, then you're expected to lose quite a few matches. And, the matches that you do win, you're expected to win by a very competitive margin. AND, I think its counted against you if you go the extreme end and bagel and/or breadstick a 4.0, since that was not expected at all, it throws off the computer.

Correct.

Quote:

Originally Posted by anubis (Post 6919964)
Someone else may need to verify, but I think that you'll have a bigger chance of moving up by playing your own level and dominating, as opposed to playing up and doing "just OK".

No, all the anecdotal evidence suggests that doing "ok" at the next level (competitive scores, not even necessarily wins) is more likely to get you bumped up than dominating at current level.

ian2 09-26-2012 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anubis (Post 6919964)
As far as I know, the "number" doesn't matter. Whether it's #1 singles or #3 doubles, you don't get more points for playing #1 and less for #3.


Correct, combo doesn't count. I don't think mixed counts either, but someone else will have to verify that



My understanding of the rating system is that there's "expected outcomes" that are predicted against match ups. If you're a 3.5 playing up in a 4.0 league, then you're expected to lose quite a few matches. And, the matches that you do win, you're expected to win by a very competitive margin. AND, I think its counted against you if you go the extreme end and bagel and/or breadstick a 4.0, since that was not expected at all, it throws off the computer.

Someone else may need to verify, but I think that you'll have a bigger chance of moving up by playing your own level and dominating, as opposed to playing up and doing "just OK".

Correct, until the last two sentences. It's definitely not "counted against you" if you trash a 4.0, though there is still a question of whether 6:0 6:0 scores will be taken into account. And you most certainly have a better chance of being bumped up when playing up and doing "just OK" as opposed to playing at your own level and dominating. Depends on the definition of "dominating" of course, and to a lesser extent on the definition of "just OK".

As for OP's specific situation, based on the info he provided it is likely that he will be bumped up to 4.0, but it's not guaranteed. To know for sure we'd have to know OP's Dynamic NTRP at the start of the year, as well as DNTRP of all his opponents AND doubles partners, and have access to the NTRP algorithm. Given this formula with multiple variables none of which are known, draw your own conclusions on whether a reliable answer can be obtained :-)

Oh, and neither combo nor mixed count in this scenario.

NTRPolice 09-26-2012 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OrangePower (Post 6920287)
This is all so completely wrong. There are several good threads in this forum that have good information on how DNTRP works. Please do yourself a favor and go read some of them before disseminating misinformation.

The three strikes rule for playing up as a self-rate is not wrong. I'm 100% sure of that, at least here. I know players and captains who have gotten the dynamic DQ letter for 3 strikes (3 wins at a higher level than the self-rate in most cases)

All I attempted to do was relate that to playing up as a "C" rate.

You cant get DQ'ed as a "C" rate.

As far as the "expected outcomes" we already know about that, but how that relates to DQ's and promotions is the real key here. Obviously, we know a 3.5 "C" playing a 4.0 "C" has an expected outcome of closer to a 0-0 loss than a 0-0 win, but the key is how does that tie into "earning points" and "rating up".

kylebarendrick 09-26-2012 11:57 AM

NTRP "points" are calculated the same way regardless of whether you have an S, B, or C rating. If you do better than the predicted outcome of your match (based on your current dynamic rating), then your dynamic rating will go up. If you do worse, then your dynamic rating will go down. Simple.

A strike occurs when your dynamic rating reaches a specific threshold that is well into the next level. If that happens 3 times then you are immediately promoted. C rated players are protected from DQ, so that is irrelevant to them.

At the end of the year, the USTA runs their full algorithm including your section's performance at nationals, tournaments (if they count for your section), and your dynamic rating to create your new computer rating. The threshold for a rating bump is much lower than that for a strike. You simply need to have a 3.51 rating to be bumped to 4.0. The strike level is probably more like 3.8.

OrangePower 09-26-2012 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTRPolice (Post 6920408)
The three strikes rule for playing up as a self-rate is not wrong. I'm 100% sure of that, at least here. I know players and captains who have gotten the dynamic DQ letter for 3 strikes (3 wins at a higher level than the self-rate in most cases)

Sorry, still wrong, getting a strike is not directly related to playing up.
As a self-rate you get a strike if your adjusted dynamic rating after a match falls beyond a certain threshhold above the ceiling of your self-rate level.
Examples:
- Self rated 3.5 plays a top 3.5 and wins 6-1, 6-1: Probable strike
- Self rated 3.5 plays a low 4.0 and wins 7-6, 0-6, 1-0: Probably not a strike
- Self rated 3.5 plays a mid 4.0 and wins 6-4, 6-4: Probable strike
- Self rated 3.5 plays up against another mid 3.5 who is also playing up and wins 6-4, 6-4: Probably not a strike

I'm not going to argue further with you on this... if you want to believe incorrect stuff, that's fine with me. If you want to learn how this stuff works, go search for threads on "DNTRP".

spot 09-26-2012 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OrangePower (Post 6920582)
Sorry, still wrong, getting a strike is not directly related to playing up.
As a self-rate you get a strike if your adjusted dynamic rating after a match falls beyond a certain threshhold above the ceiling of your self-rate level.
Examples:
- Self rated 3.5 plays a top 3.5 and wins 6-1, 6-1: Probable strike
- Self rated 3.5 plays a low 4.0 and wins 7-6, 0-6, 1-0: Probably not a strike
- Self rated 3.5 plays a mid 4.0 and wins 6-4, 6-4: Probable strike
- Self rated 3.5 plays up against another mid 3.5 who is also playing up and wins 6-4, 6-4: Probably not a strike

I'm not going to argue further with you on this... if you want to believe incorrect stuff, that's fine with me. If you want to learn how this stuff works, go search for threads on "DNTRP".

Even further you can lose a match and still generate a strike. Its even possible to lose a match without playing up and still generate a strike.

Cindysphinx 09-26-2012 12:13 PM

NTRPolice,

You're way, way off. OrangePower got you started on the right road, but let me correct one bit of misinformation you posted.

You suggested that "wins" matter ("you need three wins at a higher level to move up"). That is not correct. You can lose all your matches (at your current level or a higher level) and still be bumped up.

The computer cares about whether your match was competitive. It looks at how many games you won versus your opponent. If the final score was 6-0, 6-7, 0-1, the computer will see that you won far more games than your opponent, even though you lost.

I say this because I constantly have to console players who lost by a competitive score and are all freaked out that the loss will hurt their rating. It's not the W/L that matters, it's the score.

OrangePower 09-26-2012 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spot (Post 6920604)
Even further you can lose a match and still generate a strike. Its even possible to lose a match without playing up and still generate a strike.

Yes, absolutely. I should have listed some examples of that also.

Alchemy-Z 09-26-2012 01:01 PM

I was 16-1 last season
My last 5 matches I handed out at least 1 bagel

I did not get bumped.

So I decided myself to play up and not wait for the computer to decided I am good enough or not.

played twice at the new level so far (only in doubles)

lost 6-4 6-3
lost 7-6 6-4

Enjoying it for the more high quality play and nice rallies.

winning isn't everything.

Maui19 09-26-2012 03:55 PM

More info: I did very well at 3.5 last year (12-5 or something like that). I ran into a lot of "stacked" courts where I played very weak opponents even though I was playing the #1 court. I only mention that I played the #3 court at 4.0 because one would assume my opponents' dynamic rating would be on the lower end of 4.0 (and in some cases 3.5). I came up with 12 opponents because I originally thought I had played 6 matches, but after checking I found it was only five. I forgot to edit the "opponent math."

Last year I was disappointed that I didn't get bumped because I was getting dragged into such sucky matches and teams. Since then, I've gotten involved in a bunch of 4.0 teams and playing groups that feature some really sound, well-played tennis. I'm not even sure I'm going to play USTA next season. We'll see how we do at States in a few weeks and if that is as much fun as it was last time.

Like Alchemy-Z, I'm enjoying the higher quality tennis, and now it isn't dependent on having a higher rating.

But I am curious about what might happen, so I do appreciate everyone's thoughts.

VeeSe 09-26-2012 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OrangePower (Post 6920626)
Yes, absolutely. I should have listed some examples of that also.

Yep, the stuff OrangePower listed is more or less correct. The USTA made me self-rate this year again at 3.5 even though I should have been 3.5C according to 3 years of eligibility. I got 3 strikes in 4 matches, never playing up (won 6-2 6-0 twice, and 6-2 6-3 once against a player who also DQed and got bumped to 4.0). Only your opponent matters, not what level you are playing at.

In general though, being rated "C" is so much better than "S". It has allowed me to play 4.0 singles without worrying about getting DQed and hurting my 3.5 team by reversing results.

Also, I would like to point out that you can actually win a match and lose ratings points. If you are a high 3.5 and you beat a low 3.5 7-6, 0-6, 1-0, you probably lost rating points there.

KoaUka 09-26-2012 05:12 PM

Sometimes when you play two levels (one at your current and one above) it waters down your ratings. It's not automatic that you'll get bumped. Things seem to have leveled out since the great bump up of 2010(?)

gmatheis 09-26-2012 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VeeSe (Post 6921142)
Yep, the stuff OrangePower listed is more or less correct. The USTA made me self-rate this year again at 3.5 even though I should have been 3.5C according to 3 years of eligibility. I got 3 strikes in 4 matches, never playing up (won 6-2 6-0 twice, and 6-2 6-3 once against a player who also DQed and got bumped to 4.0). Only your opponent matters, not what level you are playing at.

In general though, being rated "C" is so much better than "S". It has allowed me to play 4.0 singles without worrying about getting DQed and hurting my 3.5 team by reversing results.

Also, I would like to point out that you can actually win a match and lose ratings points. If you are a high 3.5 and you beat a low 3.5 7-6, 0-6, 1-0, you probably lost rating points there.

Doesn't even have to be that extreme , you can be a high 3.5 and beat a low 3.5 with a score of 6-4, 6-4 and you can lose rating because the USTA NTRP table in the computer expected you to win 6-2,6-2

NTRPolice 09-26-2012 08:10 PM

As far as I can tell we're in agreement over the facts. What I dont understand is why you're so convinced that im wrong since knowing for sure either way means you have direct knowledge of DNTRP levels of players. We agree over the facts. We're speculating over the unknowns. To tell me my speculations are wrong (that is to say im trying to make a connection between "S" DQ's and "C" "bumps") you will need direct knowledge of DNTRP's of the players involved)

Because I think we're agreeing over the facts I can only assume you're misinterpreting what im saying.

I didnt think I had to clearly state that "playing up" meant "wins" (therefore beating the anticipated outcome) because I think assuming that playing up and losing 0-0 three times is just nonsense.

Simplified version to avoid more confusion.


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