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-   -   Any surprising bumps up or down? (http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=446643)

NLBwell 11-26-2012 05:02 PM

Any surprising bumps up or down?
 
Trying to see if the USTA is leaning toward bumping up people or bumping down people. Last couple years there was a big attempt to bump people up. Several years before that there was an effort to bump people down.
One woman I know who played #1 singles on her 4.0 team and lost most of her matches, but won a few was bumped down. She was one of the best players on her team which consisted of all 4.0 players.
That seemed quite a bit different than the last couple of years where a record like that might have gotten you bumped up.
Also, the #2 singles player on our team was not bumped up despite being undefeated during the season. Last year the #2 singles player (different guy) was bumped up after being undefeated (though I was not, playing #1 singles and only losing a couple of matches)

Is there is propensity toward bumping people down now?

jk175d 11-26-2012 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NLBwell (Post 7033950)
Trying to see if the USTA is leaning toward bumping up people or bumping down people. Last couple years there was a big attempt to bump people up. Several years before that there was an effort to bump people down.
One woman I know who played #1 singles on her 4.0 team and lost most of her matches, but won a few was bumped down. She was one of the best players on her team which consisted of all 4.0 players.
That seemed quite a bit different than the last couple of years where a record like that might have gotten you bumped up.
Also, the #2 singles player on our team was not bumped up despite being undefeated during the season. Last year the #2 singles player (different guy) was bumped up after being undefeated (though I was not, playing #1 singles and only losing a couple of matches)

Is there is propensity toward bumping people down now?

here's one surprising one and one inixplicable one.

A guy on our 4.5 spring team only played singles, probably 9 or 10 matches, all blowouts. Almost no one took more than 1 or 2 games a set against him. he lost his last match of the season to a 22yr old self-rated ringer who was just a couple of years out from being #1 ranked junior in the state. Lost that one 3 and 6. Thought for sure he'd get bumped to 5.0 but he wasn't. The kid who beat him was though.

Then a guy on our 9.0 mixed team who we brought on to play with our 5.0 girl, so he self rated at 4.0 the two of them went 2-1, one of those wins in the 3rd set breaker, the loss was a blowout. He didn't play spring so the computer only looked at those 3 matches. He was bumped up to 5.0! at the same time the girl was bumped down to 4.5, though she did lose a couple of other matches with a weaker 4.0. try to figure THAT one out :)

Cindysphinx 11-26-2012 05:35 PM

I can think of several 4.0 women who were bumped down to 3.5. All are older women who were really struggling.

In general, I think there was a bit of a headwind and it was tough to move up past 4.0.

Arsnlrob 11-26-2012 05:39 PM

2 guys on my team played together almost every match, 10 matches total. One guy goes 9-1 playing with nobody else. The other guy goes 9-3, playing 2 other matches with other partners and loses them both. Guess who got the bump? Yep the guy who LOST the extra 2 matches.

Mongolmike 11-26-2012 05:56 PM

Checked all the teams in our league ... 5 teams in our flight.

From what I remember, all of the best singles players got bumped up, around 6 guys, including 2 guys that played mostly singles from one team that went to Nationals.

Overall 8-9 guys who played mostly doubles got bumped up too.

Again, because the one team went to Nationals they had 8 bump ups (?), which also probably affected other opponents chance to bump up.

My team finished 2nd best and we split with the team that went to Nationals 3-2 and 2-3, we had 4 bump ups.

The other 3 teams had: 1 bump up, 1 bump up, 2 bump up.

So overall, I thought it was ok. The team that advanced so far rightly had numerous bumps, our 4 had very good records and expected a bump, the other teams bumps generally seemed appropriate. No complaints, tho there were some others from our facility who I thought would get a bump but didn't.

floridatennisdude 11-26-2012 06:13 PM

We had a few 4.5's get bumped back to 5.0 after being bumped down last year. Some got put down to 4.0 from 4.5 that probably fit better there. No surprises in our league that I've found.

JLyon 11-26-2012 06:45 PM

Guy was 4.0 in 2011, played 2 matches at 4.5 lost both, went 3 and 3 at 8.0 MXD and bumped to 5.0?!?!?

Player in Houston Area undefeated at 4.5 (5-0) and 3-0 at 5.0 = no bump but a 4.5 player he beat gets bumped WTF!!!!

Myself 0-13 and counting for last 3 seasons, scores this season
1,3; 3,4; 2,1; and 5-2 retire inj and still 5.0.

athiker 11-26-2012 06:45 PM

All bump ups here that I know of...3.5s to 4.0s. Several from a successful senior team, a few adult doubles players and a singles player that had a very good spring season.

schmke 11-26-2012 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arsnlrob (Post 7033999)
2 guys on my team played together almost every match, 10 matches total. One guy goes 9-1 playing with nobody else. The other guy goes 9-3, playing 2 other matches with other partners and loses them both. Guess who got the bump? Yep the guy who LOST the extra 2 matches.

Given they played the majority of their matches together, the key factor here would be where they started the year. The 9-1 guy must have been lower rated than the 9-3 guy, so when they won, because the algorithm effectively keeps the difference between their ratings the same, the 9-3 got "pushed" higher and would always be higher rated.

Additionally, the losses may have been to really good players, or the 9-3 guys partner may have been lower rated so they were expected to lose and the losses didn't really hurt is rating.

beernutz 11-26-2012 08:10 PM

I thought it was odd that every singles match I lost last year was to a player who got the bump (one was DQed so I didn't officially lose that one) plus two of the players that I beat in singles (one of them 4 and 2) got bumped but I didn't.

CrispyFritters 11-26-2012 10:20 PM

Seeing very few bump ups or down in Norcal. Largely status quo, even for people with lopsided wins. It feels like the hurdle was higher this year to move a level in either direction.

*Edit* Just ran the numbers for Norcal 4.5M.
1918 total players in 2012. 30% bumped down to 4.0. 69% unchanged. 1% bumped up to 5.0

Roforot 11-27-2012 03:53 AM

Crispy, how the heck are you able to get that information? Are you a league coordinator? Is there a link on that wretched tennislink site?

McLovin 11-27-2012 04:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jk175d (Post 7033987)
here's one surprising one and one inixplicable one.

A guy on our 4.5 spring team only played singles, probably 9 or 10 matches, all blowouts. Almost no one took more than 1 or 2 games a set against him. he lost his last match of the season to a 22yr old self-rated ringer who was just a couple of years out from being #1 ranked junior in the state. Lost that one 3 and 6. Thought for sure he'd get bumped to 5.0 but he wasn't. The kid who beat him was though.

That sounds vaguely familiar. I went 7-1 in singles on my 4.5 team, winning in straight sets in all 7 wins, the closest being a 6-4, 6-4 win at Districts. The guy I lost to, I lost in a 3rd set breaker, and in all honesty should have won that match (had a match point and he pulled out a stab volley winner).

I checked and he's now a 5.0.

To be clear, I am NOT a 5.0, but a solid 4.5, but there is no way the guy I lost to is a 5.0. In some ways I feel bad for him. I regularly hit against 5.0 college players, and the guy I lost to will be lucky to get 1 or 2 games.

Arsnlrob 11-27-2012 05:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by schmke (Post 7034093)
Given they played the majority of their matches together, the key factor here would be where they started the year. The 9-1 guy must have been lower rated than the 9-3 guy, so when they won, because the algorithm effectively keeps the difference between their ratings the same, the 9-3 got "pushed" higher and would always be higher rated.

Additionally, the losses may have been to really good players, or the 9-3 guys partner may have been lower rated so they were expected to lose and the losses didn't really hurt is rating.

They were both new to USTA this year and playing in their rating levels. The 9-1 guy is a much stronger player, which is another reason this is surprising. He also did a designated tourney playing up a level, and went 2-1. For the other guy i guess the 2 extra losses somehow were enough to give him a slight edge in his dynamic rating.

CrispyFritters 11-27-2012 07:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roforot (Post 7034392)
Crispy, how the heck are you able to get that information? Are you a league coordinator? Is there a link on that wretched tennislink site?

No, not part of the USTA. I just nerded it up a little. The usta site has an advanced search feature, so you can search by rating and region instead of jut by name. I just pulled all the norcal 4.5s into an excel file and ran a pivot table.

Mike Y 11-27-2012 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrispyFritters (Post 7034255)
Seeing very few bump ups or down in Norcal. Largely status quo, even for people with lopsided wins. It feels like the hurdle was higher this year to move a level in either direction.

*Edit* Just ran the numbers for Norcal 4.5M.
1918 total players in 2012. 30% bumped down to 4.0. 69% unchanged. 1% bumped up to 5.0

Nice, 1% of 4.5s got bumped to 5.0, and I played 3 of them in singles in league play. I guess there's some justification for my losses, lol.

Angle Queen 11-27-2012 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrispyFritters (Post 7034255)
Seeing very few bump ups or down in Norcal. Largely status quo, even for people with lopsided wins. It feels like the hurdle was higher this year to move a level in either direction.

*Edit* Just ran the numbers for Norcal 4.5M.
1918 total players in 2012. 30% bumped down to 4.0. 69% unchanged. 1% bumped up to 5.0

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roforot (Post 7034392)
Crispy, how the heck are you able to get that information? Are you a league coordinator? Is there a link on that wretched tennislink site?

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrispyFritters (Post 7034572)
No, not part of the USTA. I just nerded it up a little. The usta site has an advanced search feature, so you can search by rating and region instead of jut by name. I just pulled all the norcal 4.5s into an excel file and ran a pivot table.

:oops: I nerded up too. I'm a retired DA/DBA...but am just learning my way around Excel's pivot tables. Here are the results for the women in our metro area...and they mirror Crispy's. Lot of status quo...but more bump downs than what I seem to remember from the past.

Of the 535 2011-3.0s, 59 (11%) moved up, 16 (3%) moved down.
Of the 798 3.5s, 61 (~7%) moved up, 34 (4%) moved down.
Of the 467 4.0s, 26 (~5.5%) moved up, 32 (~8%) moved down.
Of the 142 4.5s, only 2 were moved up while 15 (10%+) were sent down.
Of the 23 5.0s, none were moved up and 2 (including one of our club teaching pros) were sent down.

Final breakdown looks like a darn near perfect bell curve and very little net change from (2011)

2.0 - 2 (2)
2.5 - 141 (154)
3.0 - 523 (535)
3.5 - 797 (798 )
4.0 - 486 (467)
4.5 - 153 (142)
5.0 - 23 (23)
5.5 - 3* (3)

*None of those three women played any USTA "womens" in 2012...mostly...cause, as you can see, there's no one to play with. One of these lovely ladies is old enough for the new Adult+ categories and is the wife of a head pro (an accomplished 5.0 himself who, despite going to and competing well at Nationals...didn't get bumped.). LOL. As a couple, they remind me of the Agassi/Graf household.

Angle Queen 11-27-2012 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Y (Post 7034605)
Nice, 1% of 4.5s got bumped to 5.0, and I played 3 of them in singles in league play. I guess there's some justification for my losses, lol.

Ha, that happened to me for two years. I called it -- "The Road to 4.0 Goes Thru Me". Somehow made the computer's decision palatable and explainable.

woodrow1029 11-27-2012 10:42 AM

I noticed yesterday in my section that a few people were bumped up from 3.0 to 3.5 benchmark. How does that happen (assuming I understand the term "benchmark" properly)?

Thanks!

Angle Queen 11-27-2012 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by woodrow1029 (Post 7034815)
I noticed yesterday in my section that a few people were bumped up from 3.0 to 3.5 benchmark. How does that happen (assuming I understand the term "benchmark" properly)?

Thanks!

See schmke's description earlier in this thread. All it means is that they were a 3.0 whose team made it to playoffs (and they played some match, any match in the post-season). Just mentally separate the NTRP from the "Letter" after it. Except to the behind-the-scenes stats gurus, B...means little...except that a "Benchmark" (read: playoff player) cannot automatically appeal their rating the first year they receive it.


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