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-   -   Predicting success of recent college players turned pro? (http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=447027)

db379 11-30-2012 08:34 PM

Predicting success of recent college players turned pro?
 
After reading this article (http://www.collegetennisonline.com/T...spx?nwId=45548), I tried to see if there was any correlation between the highest ATP ranking achieved and the former ITA ranking of these players. After all, success in college is usually what decides these players to turn pro or not, so one may see some correlation.

The graph I plotted shows highest ITA rank vs highest ATP rank. I have taken into account only players who have played pro (incl futures) full time for 3 years or more. This is because I estimate that a recent grad has not had a chance to reach his peak in only a few months or even 1 or 2 years. I estimate that after 3 years a player should have shown proof of his aptitudes in the pros (and reached a ranking high enough). I have to stess out that this is only a small sample, and that a larger sample would give much more accurate stats, but this is all I got. It still gives some idea of who succeeded in college and also succeeded in the pros and what could be expected of recent college players turned pro.

One striking observation from this graph is that of all players who reached inside the ATP top 100, all of them achieved a top 10 ITA ranking, except one (top 20). All the others who were beyond the top 20 in college did not become top 100 pros! I think this is quite telling, even if the sample size is small. It is also noteworthy to realize that not all former ITA top 10 made it to the top 100 in the pros. In fact from the data available, 73% of former top 10 college players made it to the top 100, and 36% made it to he top 50! Moreover, 3 out of 4 college players ranked above 20 ITA never made it to the top 250 ATP.

According to this data, one could predict that recent grads like Johnson and Klahn (both former top 5) have a pretty good chance (73%) to make it inside the top 100, whereas Meister for ex. is unlikely to make it... Not wishing any bad luck to anyone though. :)

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/13/itaprorank.png/


db379 12-01-2012 07:08 AM

BTW, the graph showing ITA ranking vs ATP ranking is here (I tried to embed it in the post but it did not work):


http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/13/itaprorank.png/

LeeD 12-01-2012 02:28 PM

Lack of injury and sustained interest probably determines a college player's chances of making it on the pro tour.

ClarkC 12-02-2012 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by db379 (Post 7040950)
After reading this article (http://www.collegetennisonline.com/T...spx?nwId=45548), I tried to see if there was any correlation between the highest ATP ranking achieved and the former ITA ranking of these players. After all, success in college is usually what decides these players to turn pro or not, so one may see some correlation.

....

It is also noteworthy to realize that not all former ITA top 10 made it to the top 100 in the pros. In fact from the data available, 73% of former top 10 college players made it to the top 100, and 36% made it to he top 50! Moreover, 3 out of 4 college players ranked above 20 ITA never made it to the top 250 ATP.

According to this data, one could predict that recent grads like Johnson and Klahn (both former top 5) have a pretty good chance (73%) to make it inside the top 100, whereas Meister for ex. is unlikely to make it... Not wishing any bad luck to anyone though. :)

I don't think the 73% number can be used in this fashion. It would be more accurate to say that "73% of currently active pro players who used to be top 10 ITA college players have reached the top 100 in the ATP rankings." There could be lots of former top 10 ITA players who are not currently active who are not on the list. Their top ATP rankings would probably be skewed lower than the currently active players, because if you don't achieve success you are more likely to become "not active" by retiring rather young.

The list is also incomplete, and the maintainer is requesting updates. I have sent him several this weekend, so the list will be changing.

db379 12-03-2012 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ClarkC (Post 7043089)
I don't think the 73% number can be used in this fashion. It would be more accurate to say that "73% of currently active pro players who used to be top 10 ITA college players have reached the top 100 in the ATP rankings." There could be lots of former top 10 ITA players who are not currently active who are not on the list. Their top ATP rankings would probably be skewed lower than the currently active players, because if you don't achieve success you are more likely to become "not active" by retiring rather young.

The list is also incomplete, and the maintainer is requesting updates. I have sent him several this weekend, so the list will be changing.

That's the problem of any sampling and stats... Like I said, the data represents a small pool, it's not taking into account all players but that's what I had to work with. So, yes it's not the whole story but according to the available data that's the best one can do. I still think it is telling something which may not be far from the reality.

GRANITECHIEF 12-06-2012 10:24 AM

Bangoura and Jung in the semis of Hong Kong futures:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/6700/mds.pdf

Jung and Thacher in the finals:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/6700/mdd.pdf

matchplay 12-07-2012 09:13 AM

stats and graphs are interesting to look at, just look at the earning list for 2012 ATP

It seems clear that most jrs. that do not go or complete (graduate) college will fail on tour.

ie:

Johnson (has not graduated, but attended for 4 years) and Klahn are two guys that have clearly established themselves to have future large earning capacity on tour (may be a few more, just using these guys as examples). May be a few others.
Now look at others (about the same age or school class - 0 to 6 years apart ) who either did not go to shool or left faily early......
Kosikowski, Mihdawy, McClune, Britton, Bangoura, Berman, Cox, Halebian----
i does not appear they can make a living on tour.
I guess the point is, go to school to get a degree or at least a good start on a degree, because making it on tour is tough.

Tmano 12-10-2012 03:27 AM

25 years old Marek Michalicka from chzek republic and Moritz Baumann form Germany used to play for the university of wisconsin (badger) til 2010 when he graduated....Marek is now ranked atp 329 in the world and Moritz 357

Tmano 12-10-2012 05:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tmano (Post 7055584)
25 years old Marek Michalicka from chzek republic and Moritz Baumann form Germany used to play for the university of wisconsin (badger) til 2010 when he graduated....Marek is now ranked atp 329 in the world and Moritz 357

not quite there yet!

Tennishacker 12-10-2012 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeeD (Post 7041792)
Lack of injury and sustained interest probably determines a college player's chances of making it on the pro tour.

Money determines how long they can play on the tour.


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