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-   -   Murray has a good chance to become #1 next year (http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=447143)

papertank 12-02-2012 12:55 PM

Murray has a good chance to become #1 next year
 
Murray had a pretty bad first half of the year this year. Besides the semis of the AO and the Miami final, he did hardly anything. Bad showing at IW, awful clay season. On the other hand, he did very well in the second half of the year. He has a perfect window of opportunity to take the #1 ranking, at least for a few weeks, in the first half of next year. If he can win either the AO or Wimbledon, he will have points for 2 slams as well as the Olympic gold. Combine that with better showings at the first few Masters and there is hardly any way he can't be #1.

Sabratha 12-02-2012 12:55 PM

I'm sure he will achieve the #1 ranking next year some time, probably during May, I'd say.

tennis_pro 12-02-2012 01:00 PM

Murray won't be ranked first even if he ties his career-best results in most of the tournaments. Why? Cause at best he'll be even with Djokovic on hard courts (talking about ranking points here/results) but fall behind on clay.

Or let's give it a second look. Murray is currently at 8000 points, Djokovic at almost 13000 which is a 5.000 difference. How on earth is Murray going to make up so much ground?

Clarky21 12-02-2012 01:03 PM

I doubt it. I think **** is going to pick up a lot of the points he dropped this year again. Especially during clay season.

The Bawss 12-02-2012 01:04 PM

Oh my god the crazy started early for next season.

batz 12-02-2012 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tennis_pro (Post 7043116)
Murray won't be ranked first even if he ties his career-best results in most of the tournaments. Why? Cause at best he'll be even with Djokovic on hard courts (talking about ranking points here/results) but fall behind on clay.

Or let's give it a second look. Murray is currently at 8000 points, Djokovic at almost 13000 which is a 5.000 difference. How on earth is Murray going to make up so much ground?

There's the concept of 'swing' mate. Let's say Murray wins the AO (he won't IMO but let's imagine he does), beating Noel in the semis. That 5000 point gap is down to 2600 - and we're only in January. Let's say Murray then wins IW - the gap is down to 1400.

Not saying it's going to happen - but it's not like it couldn't happen.

NadalAgassi 12-02-2012 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tennis_pro (Post 7043116)
Murray won't be ranked first even if he ties his career-best results in most of the tournaments. Why? Cause at best he'll be even with Djokovic on hard courts (talking about ranking points here/results) but fall behind on clay.

Or let's give it a second look. Murray is currently at 8000 points, Djokovic at almost 13000 which is a 5.000 difference. How on earth is Murray going to make up so much ground?

Murray can outperform Djokovic on grass, and arguably should. For Murray to end the year #1 i think he would have to win both Wimbledon and the U.S Open though (either that or the Australian and one of Wimbledon or the U.S Open), have a 2011 like clay season, and play consistenty and keep winning throughout the year. Otherwise it will be Djokovic.

Nadal has a chance if he is able to come back quickly enough to have great results on hard courts from January-March which seems unlikely. His case he probably has to win both the French and Wimbledon to have a chance (either that or the French and a hard court slam but that being less likely), since poor results post U.S Open are predictable.

Djokovic is the most likely year end #1 but I cant believe he is a mortal lock. He isnt that dominant.

cork_screw 12-02-2012 01:10 PM

Murray has solved Djokovic and Fed, but I would like to see what happens when he runs into the spanish bull in the semis or the finals. If he can beat him just half of the time he encounters him in slam or big masters events, I will say that murray will be #1. But it might not happen this year. Let's see how the bull's knees are, so far that's his achilies heel and it's the only thing that is defeating him at the moment.

RF20Lennon 12-02-2012 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cork_screw (Post 7043143)
Murray has solved Djokovic and Fed, but I would like to see what happens when he runs into the spanish bull in the semis or the finals.

I LOL'ed he's solved them so easily that he cant win a final despite holding 5 MP's and loses 7-6 6-2 to the other

tennis_pro 12-02-2012 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by batz (Post 7043133)
There's the concept of 'swing' mate. Let's say Murray wins the AO (he won't IMO but let's imagine he does), beating Noel in the semis. That 5000 point gap is down to 2600 - and we're only in January. Let's say Murray then wins IW - the gap is down to 1400.

Not saying it's going to happen - but it's not like it couldn't happen.

Theoretically I could be ranked no 1 by June 2013 if I won everything till then while the top 10 are plagued with injuries.

Now let me flip flop your post - what if Djokovic defended his AO crown, then regained his Dubai and Indian Wells titles while Murray, say, loses a heartbreaking AO final to Novak and his confidence bar reaches 0 %. Instead of a 5000 point difference we could see something like a 7.000-8000 gap.

During all those years stranger things have happened, f.e. looking at the rankings in May 2009 I would never have guessed that Fed was going to regain the no 1 spot in less than 2 months. And vice versa in mid 2010. But both Fed and Nads have proved over the years that they can sustain GOAT level long enough to be ranked no 1 while Murray plays in patches.

NadalAgassi 12-02-2012 01:14 PM

I still see Murray as the underdog to Nadal in any non indoor match, Djokovic in any non grass match, and Federer in any major event (anything bigger than Masters match) for the time being. He is making progress but hasnt really gained the upper hand in any of those matchups yet. That could change in 2013 depending on how much he keeps progressing.

Sabratha 12-02-2012 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tennis_pro (Post 7043116)
Murray won't be ranked first even if he ties his career-best results in most of the tournaments. Why? Cause at best he'll be even with Djokovic on hard courts (talking about ranking points here/results) but fall behind on clay.

Or let's give it a second look. Murray is currently at 8000 points, Djokovic at almost 13000 which is a 5.000 difference. How on earth is Murray going to make up so much ground?

Djokovic loses in the QF of the Australian Open, Murray wins.
Djokovic - 11,280
Murray - 9,280

Murray wins Dubai.
Djokovic - 11,280
Murray - 9,480

Murray wins Indian Wells while Djokovic makes the SF.
Djokovic - 11,280
Murray - 10,470

Murray makes the QF of Rome while Djokovic withdraws.
Djokovic - 10,680
Murray - 10,660

Murray makes the SF at Roland Garros while Djokovic loses in the SF.
Murray - 11,020
Djokovic - 9,840.

tennis_pro 12-02-2012 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sabratha (Post 7043158)
Djokovic loses in the QF of the Australian Open, Murray wins.
Djokovic - 11,280
Murray - 9,280

Loses to whom? Is it Berdych? Tsonga? Or maybe Tipsarevic?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sabratha (Post 7043158)
Murray wins Dubai.
Djokovic - 11,280
Murray - 9,480

Djokovic is not playing? I'd think if Djokovic lost in the QF in AO he would love to make it up with a couple of wins in Dubai or whichever tournament he plays next.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sabratha (Post 7043158)
Murray wins Indian Wells while Djokovic makes the SF.
Djokovic - 11,280
Murray - 10,470

Murray has never won there. Isner for another upset?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sabratha (Post 7043158)
Murray makes the QF of Rome while Djokovic withdraws.
Djokovic - 10,680
Murray - 10,660

Novak withdraws again?:) This is starting to sound like wishful thinking.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sabratha (Post 7043158)
Murray makes the SF at Roland Garros while Djokovic loses in the SF.
Murray - 11,020
Djokovic - 9,840.

What's the difference between "makes the SF" and "loses in the SF"? So you assume that Murray will reach his first FO final next year?

tennis_pro 12-02-2012 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NadalAgassi (Post 7043157)
I still see Murray as the underdog to Nadal in any non indoor match, Djokovic in any non grass match, and Federer in any major event (anything bigger than Masters match) for the time being. He is making progress but hasnt really gained the upper hand in any of those matchups yet. That could change in 2013 depending on how much he keeps progressing.

I agree. But damn, the guy hits 26 years old in May. How much longer is he going to progress? Until he's 35?

batz 12-02-2012 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tennis_pro (Post 7043154)
Theoretically I could be ranked no 1 by June 2013 if I won everything till then while the top 10 are plagued with injuries.

Now let me flip flop your post - what if Djokovic defended his AO crown, then regained his Dubai and Indian Wells titles while Murray, say, loses a heartbreaking AO final to Novak and his confidence bar reaches 0 %. Instead of a 5000 point difference we could see something like a 7.000-8000 gap.

During all those years stranger things have happened, f.e. looking at the rankings in May 2009 I would never have guessed that Fed was going to regain the no 1 spot in less than 2 months. And vice versa in mid 2010. But both Fed and Nads have proved over the years that they can sustain GOAT level long enough to be ranked no 1 while Murray plays in patches.

Theoretically you couldn't, because you don't have the ranking and wouldn't get the wildcards. That aside, I don't see how Murray winning AO and IW is comparable to you winning every tournament until next June and the rest of the top 10 being injured.

You asked how a 5000 point gap could be reduced and I showed you. You now seem to be arguing about a point I haven't made - that Murray will make number 1 next year. I have no idea whether he will or not - but I agree he will need to be more consistent outside of the slams if he is to do so.

He needs to combine his 09/10 non slam consistency with his 11/12 slam consistency - if that happens; then he has a genuine shot.

6-1 6-3 6-0 12-02-2012 01:28 PM

Meanwhile, Nadal will be snatching all the slams...

Towser83 12-02-2012 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sabratha (Post 7043158)
Djokovic loses in the QF of the Australian Open, Murray wins.
Djokovic - 11,280
Murray - 9,280

Murray wins Dubai.
Djokovic - 11,280
Murray - 9,480

Murray wins Indian Wells while Djokovic makes the SF.
Djokovic - 11,280
Murray - 10,470

Murray makes the QF of Rome while Djokovic withdraws.
Djokovic - 10,680
Murray - 10,660

Murray makes the SF at Roland Garros while Djokovic loses in the SF.
Murray - 11,020
Djokovic - 9,840.

This all seems like quite a stretch. Especially love the "Withdraws from Rome" part. I mean it could happen but it's still odds against it.

The big thing for Murray is, like with Federer last year, can Murray avoid a 2 an rivallry? If he is going up against Novak then he could be out of luck. But if Nadalor Federer can rob Novak of some titles, Murray could edge a 3 way split. Let's say he wins Wimledon and is holding 2 slams, well if Djokovic defends Australia and adds RG then Murray might still be chasing number one. However if the other 2 slams are split between Djokovic and Nadal/Federer or Djokovic fails to win a slam, then Murray's chances improve a lot.

Sabratha 12-02-2012 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tennis_pro (Post 7043174)
Loses to whom? Is it Berdych? Tsonga? Or maybe Tipsarevic?

Del Potro could pull through.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tennis_pro (Post 7043174)
Djokovic is not playing? I'd think if Djokovic lost in the QF in AO he would love to make it up with a couple of wins in Dubai or whichever tournament he plays next.

He may need an impartial break to regroup his thoughts.



Quote:

Originally Posted by tennis_pro (Post 7043174)
Murray has never won there. Isner for another upset?

If Murray wins the AO, don't you think he will actually try to win the forthcoming tournaments?

Quote:

Originally Posted by tennis_pro (Post 7043174)
Novak withdraws again?:) This is starting to sound like wishful thinking.

Djokovic withdraws a lot, ya know?

Quote:

Originally Posted by tennis_pro (Post 7043174)
What's the difference between "makes the SF" and "loses in the SF"? So you assume that Murray will reach his first FO final next year?

They're going to both lose in the SF.

jaggy 12-02-2012 01:45 PM

He only wins when its windy

tennis_pro 12-02-2012 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sabratha (Post 7043216)
Del Potro could pull through.

What if Del Potro isn't drawn with Djokovic in one quarter:)?

First, Del Potro has to land in Djokovic's section. Then at the same time Del Potro has to show up in GOATmode while Djokovic in CRAPmode and even there I would favor Novak to win in 5.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sabratha (Post 7043216)
He may need an impartial break to regroup his thoughts.

Lawl. The toughest player mentally on tour will need a break to regroup his thoughts? Really?:) Unless you mean that one of Djokovic's family members is going to die next year...other than that - not happening.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sabratha (Post 7043216)
If Murray wins the AO, don't you think he will actually try to win the forthcoming tournaments?

Pretty much like everyone else...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sabratha (Post 7043216)
Djokovic withdraws a lot, ya know?

Djokovic would have to break a leg to not show up in Rome.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sabratha (Post 7043216)
They're going to both lose in the SF.

If this means that Federer beats Murray in the SF while Nadal beats Djokovic in the SF, I take it!


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