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-   -   Can Raonic make the SFs in 2013 Miami? (http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=458134)

Marius_Hancu 03-19-2013 02:38 AM

Can Raonic make the SFs in 2013 Miami?
 
Draw:
http://www.sonyopentennis.com/posting/2013/403/mds.pdf

Can Raonic make the SFs in 2013 Miami?

Bye, Q, Querrey, Berdych, Gasquet/Almagro
are, I guess, all players he has beaten (esp the first :-))

Your take?

CDNguy87 03-19-2013 05:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marius_Hancu (Post 7287783)
Draw:
http://www.sonyopentennis.com/posting/2013/403/mds.pdf

Can Raonic make the SFs in 2013 Miami?

Bye, Q, Querrey, Berdych, Gasquet/Almagro
are, I guess, all players he has beaten (esp the first :-))

Your take?


My first thought before this tournament started was that the courts at Miami would be too slow for him and that he blew his last chance to make a good run this Spring vs. Tsonga at IW. But if he has opponents such as Querrey and Berdych, these slow courts may be not be such a disadvantage for him after all.

He seems to have improved his backhand and return game, so I'd like his chances on slower courts against Querrey (even though Querrey beat him at Wimby last year). Berdych would obviously be much tougher....he's so inconsistent and unpredictable that Milos could very easily beat an off-form Berdych, but if he's playing well Milos wouldn't stand much chance. If he makes it that far, the slow courts would truly start to hurt Milos against Gasquet or Almagro. Those guys should be able to drag him out in long, grinding rallies from the baseline and eventually break down Milos' groundstrokes.

But this is pretty much one of the best draws he could have gotten on a slow court, so it'll be interesting. I was really hoping Milos could get into the Top 12 before Wimbledon, thus avoiding the Top 4 until the QFs at the earliest. If he doesn't go deep, he'll only have the clay season and Halle to do it. He may make some moderate ranking gains on clay by virtue of being a Top 16 seed, but I doubt it would be anywhere near enough. If he falls before the QFs here and can't make the finals at Halle, he'll probably have another tough R16 draw (i.e: Fed, Murray, or Djoker) at Wimbledon.

mightyrick 03-19-2013 06:04 AM

Looking at the entry lists, I just don't think he has a chance.

If Raonic is serving lights out, match after match, then the only people who can neutralize him are the top returners in the game. In this draw, that is Murray, Ferrer, Djokovic.

But to even make it to those guys, he's going to have to serve at a lights-out level all tournament... and try to get a few rounds through the likes of Tsonga, Del Potro, Berdych, Tipsarevic, Gasquet, and a bunch of scrappy dirt-courters. I just can't see it.

Raonic's serve -- when it is on -- is really good. But his game lacks any real depth. I mean can anybody name a weapon that he has other than his serve? His footwork and movement is mediocre, his backhand is average, his forehand is "okay" but nothing to be impressed with, his return of serve is also average.

Raonic needs to develop another weapon if he's going to try to get into the top-15.

merwy 03-19-2013 06:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mightyrick (Post 7288038)
Looking at the entry lists, I just don't think he has a chance.

If Raonic is serving lights out, match after match, then the only people who can neutralize him are the top returners in the game. In this draw, that is Murray, Ferrer, Djokovic.

But to even make it to those guys, he's going to have to serve at a lights-out level all tournament... and try to get a few rounds through the likes of Tsonga, Del Potro, Berdych, Tipsarevic, Gasquet, and a bunch of scrappy dirt-courters. I just can't see it.

Raonic's serve -- when it is on -- is really good. But his game lacks any real depth. I mean can anybody name a weapon that he has other than his serve? His footwork and movement is mediocre, his backhand is average, his forehand is "okay" but nothing to be impressed with, his return of serve is also average.

Raonic needs to develop another weapon if he's going to try to get into the top-15.

Or at the very least try to make his baseline game and movement suck less. You can't have any big weaknesses like that when you're playing at the very top.

CDNguy87 03-19-2013 06:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mightyrick (Post 7288038)
Raonic needs to develop another weapon if he's going to try to get into the top-15.

Huh? He was ranked #13 before losing his finalist points at Memphis, is #16 right now, and will probably move up to #15 just by beating Querrey here to make the R16 (he only made the R32 last year). You make it sound like the Top 15 is some distant, mythical objective for him.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mightyrick (Post 7288038)
Raonic's serve -- when it is on -- is really good. But his game lacks any real depth. I mean can anybody name a weapon that he has other than his serve? His footwork and movement is mediocre, his backhand is average, his forehand is "okay" but nothing to be impressed with, his return of serve is also average.

Those definitely are major weaknesses that will plague him on these slower courts. But you don't think he's less one-dimensional than someone like Querrey? I'd have to like his chances at Miami to beat Querrey and at least make the R16. At that point it would depend on which Berdych shows up. Berdych has lost to far inferior players than Milos on slower courts, so an upset there isn't totally unforeseeable, especially if Berdych implodes mentally and piles up UEs. But a QF match-up against Gasquet, Almagro, or even Youzhny will be huge trouble for Milos based on the weaknesses you mentioned....his only chance would be to blow them off the courts, and Miami is horribly-suited for that.

kishnabe 03-19-2013 06:49 AM

Berdych is a tough ask...looking at the form he is in.

CDNguy87 03-19-2013 06:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kishnabe (Post 7288145)
Berdych is a tough ask...looking at the form he is in.


He's very unpredictable though. If Berdych is at the top of his game, Milos has no chance. But he can also easily implode and lose to clearly inferior players.

mightyrick 03-19-2013 06:59 AM

Not trying to make it sound like top-15 is a mythical achievement. I think he'll "flirt" with it. As you've said, he's been there before, but when I look at the players in the top-20 (and even top 30) coming back into form... I just don't see him being able to hold a spot in the top-15.

Other players around him seem to be getting better and competing better. For him, I just don't see him getting better.

So his big problems are: 1) The hardcourts are pretty slow now... some as slow as clay, and 2) his peers are actually getting better... even older peers. Unfortunately for Raonic... this batch of players has already been subjected to Karlovic, Roddick, Del Potro, Murray, and Isner. People know how to play against the big serve.

If there was one thing I wish Raonic would do... it is drop about 20 pounds. I think his movement would improve a lot. But he'd still need to develop another weapon. If he develops one additional weapon and drops 20 pounds, he can get into the top-10. Just look at Del Potro.

Tammo 03-19-2013 07:17 AM

I dont think milos will get past Berdy

CDNguy87 03-19-2013 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mightyrick (Post 7288170)

If there was one thing I wish Raonic would do... it is drop about 20 pounds. I think his movement would improve a lot. But he'd still need to develop another weapon. If he develops one additional weapon and drops 20 pounds, he can get into the top-10. Just look at Del Potro.


That's an interesting thought I'd never really considered. That's what Roddick did and it worked really well to rejuvenate his career, at least for most of 2009 and the early part of 2010. If anything, it looks like Milos has bulked up noticably this year compared to the past 2 seasons. Presumably he's trying to add strength to boost his power and therefore blow people off the court, but that may not be the way to go in this day and age with slow courts and grinding baseline rallies the norm.

papertank 03-19-2013 10:20 AM

It's definitely possible, I think if he makes it all the way to the QFs with Berdych he has a great chance of winning that match. Raonic needs to start having runs like this if he wants to make the top 10. These slow hard courts should suit his game, because they will compensate for his slow movement and give him more time to set up his shots. Also if he does manage to take out Berdych I would give him a decent shot vs Murray as well.

ktid 03-19-2013 12:09 PM

I think Berdych is the only thing stopping him from doing it, so I think he will, probably will be wrong but we'll see

President 03-19-2013 12:20 PM

I think a slow court would actually help him against the Berd man, on a fast court Milos would have absolutely no chance against him because his return is so bad.

Smasher08 03-19-2013 03:20 PM

Is there a voting option for "maybe"?

;)

jrs 03-20-2013 12:34 PM

He starts fast and finishes slow - need to do the opposite - start slow and finish fast. I find the serve starts to go away late in the 2nd set and 3rd set.

Mabye the other players are figuring it out late in the game.

pound cat 03-20-2013 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smasher08 (Post 7289234)
Is there a voting option for "maybe"?

;)


Consider your vote made, registered & noted by readers of this thread. Best option yet IMO.

albatros_forehand 03-20-2013 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CDNguy87 (Post 7288016)
My first thought before this tournament started was that the courts at Miami would be too slow for him and that he blew his last chance to make a good run this Spring vs. Tsonga at IW. But if he has opponents such as Querrey and Berdych, these slow courts may be not be such a disadvantage for him after all.

He seems to have improved his backhand and return game, so I'd like his chances on slower courts against Querrey (even though Querrey beat him at Wimby last year). Berdych would obviously be much tougher....he's so inconsistent and unpredictable that Milos could very easily beat an off-form Berdych, but if he's playing well Milos wouldn't stand much chance. If he makes it that far, the slow courts would truly start to hurt Milos against Gasquet or Almagro. Those guys should be able to drag him out in long, grinding rallies from the baseline and eventually break down Milos' groundstrokes.

But this is pretty much one of the best draws he could have gotten on a slow court, so it'll be interesting. I was really hoping Milos could get into the Top 12 before Wimbledon, thus avoiding the Top 4 until the QFs at the earliest. If he doesn't go deep, he'll only have the clay season and Halle to do it. He may make some moderate ranking gains on clay by virtue of being a Top 16 seed, but I doubt it would be anywhere near enough. If he falls before the QFs here and can't make the finals at Halle, he'll probably have another tough R16 draw (i.e: Fed, Murray, or Djoker) at Wimbledon.

I don't get that people still consider Berdych inconsistent...

albatros_forehand 03-20-2013 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CDNguy87 (Post 7288158)
He's very unpredictable though. If Berdych is at the top of his game, Milos has no chance. But he can also easily implode and lose to clearly inferior players.

Sure.. Just like he has done so many times this year and last year.. :-\

CDNguy87 03-21-2013 05:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albatros_forehand (Post 7291878)
Sure.. Just like he has done so many times this year and last year.. :-\

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Wi...gles#Section_2

Losing to Gulbis in the 1st Round at one Slam then beating Federer in the QFs at the next Slam only 2 months later would seem to meet the definition of unpredictable, no?

Or how about last year, at this same tournament, when he lost to a 20-year old Dimitrov in the R32: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_So...gles#Section_5


Granted, his consistency has improved greatly over the last year or 2, but this shows that he's still fully capable of losing to inferior players if he's not on his game. I'm not sure why that would be disputable.

Chanwan 03-21-2013 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CDNguy87 (Post 7288158)
He's very unpredictable though. If Berdych is at the top of his game, Milos has no chance. But he can also easily implode and lose to clearly inferior players.

Except for a weird loss in Chennai, he's lost to Djokovic (twice), Tsonga and Nadal this year.

In the six months prior (from Cincinatti onwards), he's lost to people like Raonic, Simon, Gasquet, Nishikori and Isner (apart from Djoko-Murray and so on), but for Berdych to lose to those players is not exactly a massive surprise nor really bad loses.

Berdych is more much consistent than people give him credit for.


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