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FedExpress17 04-24-2013 04:31 AM

Predictions for the rest of Nadal and Federer's careers
 
Seeing Djokovic beat Nadal on clay at Monte Carlo and Federer on indoor hardcourt at the World Tour Finals really underlined how dominant Djokovic has become since 2011. Murray looks capable of beating the big guys at Wimbledon, the US Open and the Australian Open. Encouraging (if admittedly sporadic as of yet) performances from the likes of Raonic, Dimitrov, Tomic, Gulbis and others may be an indication that the new generation are almost ready to make a breakthrough and sweep the last remnants of the Fedal generation away.

This turn of events got me wondering;

1. When will Federer and Nadal retire?
2. Will there come a point before they retire where they can no longer hang with the new generation and if so, when will that point occur?
3. Bearing your answer to the last two questions in mind, how many more slam finals will they each make before retirement?
4. How many of these finals do you expect each player to actually win?

Anyone up for some interesting and productive discussion on this topic? :)

FedExpress17 04-24-2013 04:36 AM

Woops, I think I probably posted this in the wrong section....... Should be in the General Pro Player Discussion section......

mightyrick 04-24-2013 04:38 AM

I think Federer retires next year after he loses a bunch of points this year. He's got a family and a lot of other stuff he can do. I can't see Federer winning another slam.

I think Nadal will be around for 3 or 4 years probably. I don't see him retiring before that. I think they'll be able to manage his knee issues. I can see Nadal winning maybe 3 or 4 more slams. Certainly at least one more at the French Open. I can also see him winning at least one on HC if Djokovic is taken out (which he will be sometimes).

FedExpress17 04-24-2013 04:42 AM

Interesting.... Whats your prediction on number of finals made?

Nathaniel_Near 04-24-2013 05:04 AM

Roger Federer:

0 - 3 more finals, 0 - 2 more wins. Retires with 17 - 19 Majors in 2016/17.

I think Federer will continue to lose more than 50% of the matches he plays against the combination of Nadal, Djokovic and Murray. His odds will probably get worse and worse against them while in the meantime, the next generation will also start to pose considerable problems for him by about 2015, more or less shutting him out of the picture at the Slam events. His saving grace is Wimbledon, and he may be able to sneak up to 2 more extra titles there with some fortune. Frankly, my gut feeling is that he won't actually win another Major but if he does it will be Wimbledon once or maybe twice and he might have a chance to sneak a US Open.

Rafael Nadal:

Around about 4 - 7 more finals, 2 - 4 more wins. Retires with 13 - 15 Majors in 2016/17.

Until Nadal's RG fortress is broken, it can remain a tournie in which he is the heavy favourite for quite some time. Even if he is beaten there it won't mean that he will lack chances in the future. He also has a good shot to reach the final at Wimbledon and has an impressive recent record there, as well as quite enjoying the slow and heavy conditions at the Australian Open. He will start (already has) declining though and guys like Djokovic and Murray will provide tougher and tougher resistance for him over the next couple of years. But Nadal will still have what it takes to more or less hang with these guys, find his way into more RG finals, another Wimbledon final or two and maybe another AO final, winning some. The next gen. will start to put good pressure on Nadal around about the same time they do Federer, and his body will continue to feel tumultuous and slowly breakdown, leading to retirement at roughly the same time as Federer... two legends of the game retiring at approx. the same time.

The Tennis landscape will have changed substantially enough that even though both players will be missed, the tennis public will be looking forward rather than backward.

FedExpress17 04-24-2013 05:17 AM

Pretty sensible predictions :) My own predictions are:

Fed retires at year end 2016.
He will have trouble with the new generation starting 2015.
Will make 2 more grand slam finals and win 1.

Nadal hangs on until French Open 2017
The new generation cause him problems in middle 2014 (grass season)
Will make 8 more finals and win 4.

Goosehead 04-24-2013 10:05 AM

Nadals career is uncertain as after 8 months out he is still complaining about his knees,

Federer i dunno, another major or wtf ??..possible,

they both want to play to at least 2016 Olympics but no-one knows.

Joseph L. Barrow 04-24-2013 10:07 AM

Based on past statements, they are both personally committed to keeping at it at least until the 2016 Olympics. I don't envision them hanging around very long after that, however-- they will probably both be retired five years from now, as they will have slipped out of contention for the biggest titles and will not have an interest in going on indefinitely as middling players.

I give Nadal 2-4 more Major titles, with 1-3 French Opens yet to come, a fair chance at another Wimbledon, and an outside shot at another Australian or US Open title. 1-2 more for Federer, who is still good enough at the Majors to consistently make deep runs and will remain so for at least another two to three years, during which time he will catch fire and/or fall through the cracks at least once.

Sorana fan 04-24-2013 10:13 AM

Nadal wil retire after 2016 Olympics

Federer next year (2013) when he finally realises he's not able to win a GS anymore

Clarky21 04-24-2013 10:26 AM

I think Fed can still win a couple more slams before he calls it quits. Nadal, otoh, is finished, and will never win another slam for the rest of his career. I also think Fed will last longer on the tour even though he is older. Nadal will be retired in the next year or so, while Fed will still be hanging around for at least 2-3 more years.

veroniquem 04-24-2013 11:00 AM

I have serious doubts about Fed hanging around until the end of 2016 or if he does it will be with a very, very depleted schedule.
As for Rafa, it depends entirely on whether he can keep his body together or not. So far the signs are not overwhelmingly encouraging :(

sportsfan1 04-24-2013 11:29 AM

Nadal's one and only problem is Djokovic, and has been for the last few years. He's shown that he can manage his knees and since he came back this year he's beaten top 10 opponents such as Federer Berdych, Tsonga, JMDP and won titles.
If someone else manages to upset Djok, and Rafa can occasionally get wins against him (such as last year), he looks to be in the picture to win many more slams. No matter what he says about it himself, you just can't count him out.

Federer currently, on the other hand has gone in as the underdog against Nadal in the slams, and is now also looking susceptible to upsets from Berdych, Tsonga, JMDP. He's also had more losses than wins against Djokovic and Murray recently. 0-1 slams.

Vamos Rafa 04-24-2013 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FedExpress17 (Post 7365106)
Pretty sensible predictions :) My own predictions are:

Fed retires at year end 2016.
He will have trouble with the new generation starting 2015.
Will make 2 more grand slam finals and win 1.

Nadal hangs on until French Open 2017
The new generation cause him problems in middle 2014 (grass season)
Will make 8 more finals and win 4.

I mostly agree with this, but not sure that Nadal will struggle with the next generation before Federer I reckon it'll be about the same time (although I do agree it will be on the grass where Rafa will begin to struggle more as more opponents seem to be able to out-hit him). Think you've got the number of slams for each about right, maybe one too many for Nadal depending on whether Djokovic manages to stop his dominance at RG. Which slams do you think Roger and Rafa will win between now and retirement?

Mike Sams 04-24-2013 01:49 PM

Federer's staying on until at least 2016. Look at him right now. He's won no tournaments since Cincy last year and still is the world #2. :lol: :lol:
And now he's on another 2 month vacation.

merwy 04-24-2013 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Sams (Post 7366118)
Federer's staying on until at least 2016. Look at him right now. He's won no tournaments since Cincy last year and still is the world #2. :lol: :lol:
And now he's on another 2 month vacation.

yeah but what does that mean? Does it mean that Federer is so good that he can stay in the top 3 without collecting any points? That wouldn't make any sense. It means that he has collected most of his points before the end of the season. Namely, at Madrid, RG, olympics, Wimbledon and Cincy.

Do you think he can repeat these titles/finals? Because I don't.. He's #9 in the Race right now. If Almagro does well at Barcelona, Fed will be #10.. Maybe even #11 if Nishikori does very well. Don't want to sound too negative but it's a fact that if things keep going as they're going right now, he will be outside of the top 5 in a couple of months.

Clarky21 04-24-2013 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merwy (Post 7366148)
yeah but what does that mean? Does it mean that Federer is so good that he can stay in the top 3 without collecting any points? That wouldn't make any sense. It means that he has collected most of his points before the end of the season. Namely, at Madrid, RG, olympics, Wimbledon and Cincy.

Do you think he can repeat these titles/finals? Because I don't.. He's #9 in the Race right now. If Almagro does well at Barcelona, Fed will be #10.. Maybe even #11 if Nishikori does very well. Don't want to sound too negative but it's a fact that if things keep going as they're going right now, he will be outside of the top 5 in a couple of months.

Nah, I think Fed will pick it up soon. The one who will be out of the top 5 in a couple of months is Nadal. I won't be shocked if he doesn't make the top 8 this year with the way things are going.

vive le beau jeu ! 04-24-2013 02:09 PM

the nadal retiring asap would be great.

tipsa...don'tlikehim! 04-24-2013 02:11 PM

i'd like to see nadal win at least 1 more US open and 1 more AO, just to balance a bit, because
7 french
2 wimbledon
1 US
1 OA

that's a bit off balance

tipsa...don'tlikehim! 04-24-2013 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Sams (Post 7366118)
Federer's staying on until at least 2016. Look at him right now. He's won no tournaments since Cincy last year and still is the world #2. :lol: :lol:
And now he's on another 2 month vacation.

if u think federer is gonna be top 4 at the end of the year, i say u are dreaming mate :) he's like number 10 so far at the RACE ranking, even gasquet is ahead

merwy 04-24-2013 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clarky21 (Post 7366161)
Nah, I think Fed will pick it up soon. The one who will be out of the top 5 in a couple of months is Nadal. I won't be shocked if he doesn't make the top 8 this year with the way things are going.

clarkyyyy, you're obviously saying things that aren't realistic. If "things keep going like they are now", Nadal will make the final of every tournament he enters. It's difficult to finish the year outside of the top 5 if you make every final. Besides, I think he almost has enough points already to finish #8.


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