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Old 10-03-2008, 01:18 PM   #11
krosero
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 5,130
Default Service percentages and total points won

I've done my own count of the service percentages and total points won. On those categories, again, the ATP stats are wrong. But as is usually the case when those are wrong, the ATP counts still look good for aces, double-faults and break points.


My count:

Sampras won 106 points overall, Agassi 85. That's a total of 191 points (compared to 223 at the ATP). So Sampras hit a clean winner or ace on 24% of all the points in the match (compared to 27% in the 2002 USO final).


Sampras won 67 of 93 points on serve, Agassi 59 of 98.


Sampras served at 59%, making 55 of 93 first serves.
Agassi served at 43%, making 42 of 98 first serves.

(NBC had Sampras at 61% early in the third set, and Agassi at 44% in his last service game. The ATP's percentage for Sampras is too high).


Sampras’ service percentages by set:
18/30 (60%)
19/27 (70.4%)
18/36 (50%)

Agassi’s service percentages by set:
12/28 (42.9%)
13/32 (40.6%)
17/38 (44.7%)


Sampras converted 3 of 9 break points, Agassi 0 of 4.

Sampras got his first serve into play on 4 of 4 break points, Agassi on 2 of 9. Each time that Agassi was broken it was on second serve.

Now the boxscore from Western Daily Press makes sense; I had read it incorrectly.

In the boxscore, Sampras got 61% of his “RETURNS IN”, Agassi 51% – meaning that Sampras failed to put 39% of his returns into play, and Agassi 49%. The boxscore gives the numbers behind the latter percentages: Sampras failed to return 36 serves successfully, Agassi 43 (I have the same numbers, if I include aces as unreturned serves). Calculating from the percentages, then, Sampras got back 56 serves, Agassi 45. If you add all those numbers – unreturned serves and successful returns – to the 11 double faults, you get 191 points played in the match, the same as my count.

So the category for % of “RETURNS IN” does not mean what it might sound like. When I first read it, I thought it referred to how many returns Agassi, for example, was able to get into play, out of the total number of returns that he hit. The category actually refers to how many he got into play, out of all the serves that Sampras got into the box – including those serves that Agassi never touched. It’s an index of how many good serves a receiver can return, not how many of his returns are good and how many are errors.


Quote:
MATCH STATISTICS
PETE SAMPRAS (USA) v ANDRE AGASSI (USA)
17 Aces 5
5 Double Faults 6
60 First Serves In (%) 43
88 1st serve points won (%) 74
49 2nd serve points won (%) 50
43 Unreturned Serves 36
8 Forehand Winners 9
4 Backhand Winners 6
13 Volley Winners 6
1 Passing Winners 5
4 Return Winners 4
61 Returns In (%) 51
27/50 Net Points Won of Approaches 10/12
3/9 Break Points Won 0/4
So my original estimate of 167 total points is, obviously, wrong.
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