Originally Posted by thug the bunny
Wait, you're picking AGAINST the spread? If this is a straight-up pool the spread is a good starting point as to who to choose. If there is a 14 pt spread on a game, even if you loose the game in an unbelievable underdog win, so will most of the others in your pool. The key is picking the low spread winners, and one or two underdogs. Spread, movement in spread, injuries, play styles, recent W/L trends, strengths/weaknesses on both sides of the ball, and recent performances of key personnel (game changers), are all variable to look at.
I mean I have to take into consideration the spread, it's not a straight pick em. For example if a very good team is playing a bad team, they are often favoured by 14 points or more, in which case if you pick the favourite they have to win by at least that many points. That really makes every game almost 50-50, which is of course how Vegas makes its money.