Originally Posted by mikej
USC 58% - clear favorite in my book, as dubs and Johnson will give them a 2-0 lead in each match they play on the way to the title
UVA 16% - top 3 clicking now, but relatively weak dubs, questionable depth, and likely a tough draw shaping up...also I question Domi's toughness in the heat (and with rowdy crowds like he saw last year at Stanford) against some of the top #2s he will face...UVA might be wise to switch him and Frank for NCAAs
Ohio St 10% - if they play great dubs like they did in Indoors, they will be a tough out, but they will likely lose to a deep team like UGA or UCLA after losing a fickle dubs pt (or just lose straight up to the two better teams above) - @theotherkobe is the man, but he won't beat a guy like Frank again in NCAAs
UCLA 6% - the Meister-Thompson switch will hurt them, and I don't know if their depth can overcome that against the top teams - those guys will have to outdo themselves for UCLA to even make a final now
UGA 4% - yeah yeah home court advantage blah blah blah - this team has not looked like a superpower to me this season - they'll probably barely survive a team similar to UF like they did in the regular season then lose in the quarters - if their dubs was better I might buy into "the pit" carrying them to a title match a bit more
Duke 3% - 1) need another team to take out USC, which isn't likely to happen 2) need dubs pts, which they have a fighting chance of against most teams and 3) need Cunha to stop losing to guys like Jenkins and Hernandez and reclaim his inner barriCunha
Kentucky 3% - similar in a lot of ways to Duke - they'll need to get ahead of the game with dubs pts and get some good play out of the veteran Quigley
anyone else 0%
Look, I think USC is the clear favorite too, but I don't know why you don't want to buy into UGA. No, they haven't blown every opponent off the court, but that's because a lot of them are still really good. They beat OSU. They beat 3 top 15 teams in a weekend to win the SEC Championship. They've only lost to USC and Kentucky, and they avenged the latter when it mattered most. It's not always pretty or dominant. But a win's a win. Results speak for themselves.
I give UGA about a 25% chance, along with Virginia. USC at 40%, and Ohio State at 10%. Would be very, very surprised to see someone outside the top 4 win.