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Old 04-27-2012, 05:12 PM   #19
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Charlottesville, VA
Posts: 3,753

Originally Posted by mikej View Post
man, when you don't tell UGA and UVA fans that you think they are superpowers with tremendous chances of winning NCAAs, you really ruffle some feathers...sorry?
No feathers ruffled here. I was just providing a counterpoint to what you said, because it honestly sounded like the same things that UVa fans were saying as we worried about our team a month ago. Drew Courtney was really struggling in every match a few weeks ago, even against competition that was not that great. His performance at the ACC tourney was three excellent doubles matches and three excellent singles matches, not just one win against Saba.

April 13: UVa only beats Florida State 4-3 in Charlottesville, with Andres Bucaro (#3, with one of FSU's best records) out of the lineup. Drew Courtney plays #5 (!) and loses to Jason Zafiros 7-6, 6-7, [10-3]. Justin Shane plays #4 and loses to Benjamin Lock in 3 sets. Lock has been looking like a rising star for Florida State for a while, working his way up from 6 to 4 as a freshman. Eight days later, at the ACC tournament, UVa beats Florida State 4-0 at a neutral site. Drew Courtney plays #4 and beats Benjamin Lock 6-2, 6-1. See any difference in performance there?

The week before the FSU/Miami weekend in C'ville, we took a road trip to Clemson and Georgia Tech, and Drew Courtney played #5. He beat Hunter Harrington of Clemson 5-7, 7-6, [10-8]. He played three better players than that in the ACCs and did not lose a set. So, we are not talking about one data point here, the Saba match.

Notice I did not contradict your claim that we are shaky at 5 and 6, because we have yet to prove otherwise against top level competition. Another wild card is that Domijan and Frank are looking great at #3 doubles, but will probably have to play #2 in the NCAAs as a result. At this point, we don't even know who that will leave at #3 doubles. However, when you consider that we were losing almost every doubles point against top 25 teams for a good stretch of the season, and now we have two doubles teams that are suddenly looking very good, then there is some reason for optimism. We have to continue to keep an eye on the bottom of the singles and doubles lineups in the NCAA regionals before we can decide exactly how optimistic we should be. If we cannot pick up wins at #3 doubles and #5-6 singles, then it is a tough task. But if Courtney still was struggling at #4, then it would have put us in the long shot category -- say, about 16% chance of winning it.
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