Originally Posted by Steady Eddy
As you say, he says, "You have a 40% success rate." Does this mean that the intrinsic probability of success is 40% (you and Suresh). Or does it mean only that after a certain # of trials, he's logged a 40% success rate? (me).
In the context of everything else he says I think my interpretation makes sense, but let's ask the OP. OP! Is this about fractions or probability?
P.S. To the OP. What you say in the final paragraph is correct, i.e. a success has more weight b/c it is further from 40% than a fail. What's wrong with the earlier argument? It has its merits, but simply isn't the only factor.
I think the entire problem is that it's vague and not defined well. There's definitely a mixup of terminology and/or interpretation.
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