Originally Posted by Steady Eddy
As you say, he says, "You have a 40% success rate." Does this mean that the intrinsic probability of success is 40% (you and Suresh). Or does it mean only that after a certain # of trials, he's logged a 40% success rate? (me).
In the context of everything else he says I think my interpretation makes sense, but let's ask the OP. OP! Is this about fractions or probability?
P.S. To the OP. What you say in the final paragraph is correct, i.e. a success has more weight b/c it is further from 40% than a fail. What's wrong with the earlier argument? It has its merits, but simply isn't the only factor.
Well put. I presumed that given the way he worded it, you've got a 40% prob. of doing some activity correctly. But at the same time, it could also mean that you've been successful 20 out of the last 50 times you tried something.