Quote:
Originally Posted by Steady Eddy
8/11 =73%. But his rate would 9/11 =82%. You're right. Yet the point remains, increase of 1% from a win, decrease of 8% from a loss. It's asymmetric with respect to wins and loses.
In the OP's example, even though the 'win' comes later, and is a smaller proportion of the total, @ 40% a 'win' causes a greater change than does a 'loss'.

I think in signal processing such things are handled by giving weights to new arriving data (smoothing them out with a filter) so that one new point cannot rock the boat, so to speak. So, here p would be "modulated" by a filtered version like p(n+1) = 0.95*p(n1) + 0.05*p(n), with p(n1) = 9/10, p(n) = 9/11, so that p(n+1) = 0.896