Not just because I'm a fan, but I can't see anybody but Federer winning it. The US Open has been his best slam for the past 2 years, even though he didn't win it, he played his best tennis by far, going out to Djokovic having had match point both times.
The fast surface massively favors his game, it's the only slam where I don't worry so much if he was to be drawn against Nadal, he can simply hit though him, he has Djokovic and Murray's number too. I would pick him in all 3 of those match ups on that surface.
Also take into account, that Federer has more in the tank at this stage of the season, especially with the Olympics this year, I don't think Rog will be as tired as the other guys. He is the smart pick, but at the same time I wouldn't rule out a return to dominance of Djokovic.