Originally Posted by Evan77
MC doesn't really matter that much. Djokovic only played 13 tournaments this year. Fed played 16. Novak is still leading the race, so I assume he'll probably end up as #1. Also, Fed has too many points to defend.
But Fed is head and shoulders above anyone else indoor and Murray typically goes on a roll in Asia. I fully expect Murray to pocket his 3rd Shanghai title this year, so Djoko won't gain that many points there even if he wins Beijing. And indoor, Fed reigns (unless he has some kind of wearout/injury going on). Fed will win Basel most certainly and he wins WTF most of the time, so the only question mark for him is Paris but one has to take into account that neither Murray nor Djoko has a great record in Paris and WTF (I know Djoko won Paris and WTF once but since then, he's done rather poorly in both events and Murray hasn't even made a final in those events ), which means that Fed could outperform them even if he doesn't win Paris. On a side note, I find it remarkable that Djoko is leading the race given how few tournaments he's played compared to the others. That speaks volumes about how consistent he's been in the big events. However, in the event Fed plays Shanghai and Murray/Djoko have to duke it out in the semi, Fed would have a golden opportunity to take Shanghai and seal year end #1 at the same time...