Fed is a better player indoors. I agree. However, both Novak and Roger didn't play the Asian swing last year. Djokovic, if he wins China Open, will win extra 500 points (it's very likely as the field is very weak there. The only player that might challenge him there is Tsonga but his form is questionable right now. Remind you he never lost a match in Shanghai and won the title twice.
As for Murray and Novak, if they meet in Shangai I'd say it's 50/50. Murray was successful last year in Asia but both Djokovic and Fed didn't play. Again both Fed and Novak can only gain points in Shanghai and Murray is irrelevant because he mathematically can not be #1 this year. Plus don't right off Fed in Shanghai, he'll be fresh and he can hurt Murray anywhere. The question is who will do better in Shangai this year, Roger or Novak?
Djokovic lost in Paris last year (W/O to Tsonga, QF), lost in Basel SF, and played like a monkey at the WTF being completely wasted.
Realistically, he just needs to stay ahead one step ahead of Roger and he'll easily end up as #1. Fed needs to defend Basel, Paris and WTF plus play exceptionally well in Asia. very high task for him.
The reason why Djokovic is leading the race by 1000 points (despite the fact that he played only 13 tournaments) is that he simply outperformed Fed at slams (Novak, 1W, 2F, 1SF; Fed 1W, 2SF, 1QF) plus he was more consistent. Djokovic won or reached semis/finals of all tournaments he played this year except for Madrid (lost in QF).
p.s. this is my re to Veroniquem's post #56
Last edited by Evan77; 10-03-2012 at 12:11 PM.