Originally Posted by 0d1n
I've re-checked my reading comprehension skills. They are fine
I don't think we're saying quite the same thing. I am saying no 4.5 will take a game from any top 100 WTA woman unless he lucks out and hits 3 aces in a game. You are mentioning "SETS" as a possibility (although remote possibility). I am saying sets are NOT a possibility...ever.
I am taking it further and also saying that any 14-15 yo girl who has realistic chances of making it to the WTA will mop the floor with any 4.5. The 4.5 will win games, but not sets, unless the kid has a really bad day and is also being "childish" in her choices.
Any 14-15 yo BOY who has realistic chances of making it to the ATP, will beat 4.5's 12-0, 18-0, 24-0 ...etc in 90 percent of their matches. Again...4.5's with huge serves might get isolated games if they luck out and hit aces. Otherwise...fat chance.
Nah...I play competitively but still in amateur leagues, similar to the ones you have. Not a sandbagger, just passionate about tennis and more aware about these NTRP ratings and what they mean than many Americans (it seems)
The flaw in your argument is that you are trying to take an outsiders look at the characteristics of the NTRP system and the 4.5 level in particular and extrapolate them to actual results of a hypothetical match with a top 1000 female. This is akin to being a restaurant reviewer who only looks at a menu and the chef's recipes and resume then uses that data to rate his meal.
The biggest flaw in your argument is that the NTRP system is far from perfect. I can guarantee you that there are current legitimate computer-rated 4.5s in the US who possess 5.0 level skills and are possibly even better than that. So now the argument becomes could a man with 5.0 level skills (or even better) take multiple games or sets from a top 1000 woman? I think it would be easy to find a male in this category who regularly hits monster serves and was a decent returner and match them up with a top 1000 woman who had weak serve and return skills and I don't think the results are predictable at all. Cherry pick a six foot six inch male with a booming serve and match them against the shortest and weakest returning WTA top 1000 female and you are still guaranteeing the female wins with bagels and breadsticks? I'll take a piece of that action any day and twice on Sundays.